‘Scenarios for Policy: Transforming Farming, Landscape and Food Systems for the 21st Century’ was a side event held at the Hunger for Action Conference: 2nd Global Conference on Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change. This session, coordinated by the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) considered future policy options for the major transformative changes needed in farming, landscapes and food systems to make climate-smart agriculture a reality.

1. Future Food Systems:
Policies and programs to assure food for
the poorest under climate change
Carlo Scaramella,
WFP Climate Change, Environment and DRR Coordinator
2nd Global conference on Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change
Hanoi, Vietnam – 4 September, 2012

2. Outline
1. Food insecurity: the most vulnerable in a
changing risk environment
2. Vulnerable livelihoods’ cycle of food insecurity
and poverty
3. Breaking the cycle: supporting vulnerable HHs
achieve FNS and resilience
4. Can CSA work in the context of food insecurity?
5. Conclusions

3. 1. Food insecurity: the most vulnerable
WFP supported over
100 million people
in over 80 countries

4. Food insecurity: the most vulnerable
 Most undernourished people –
75% – are farmers and pastoralists
One billion  They live in poor, marginal and
degraded rural areas
hungry  They struggle to make a living on
people less than 1 hectare or work on
other people’s fields
 Often unable to produce more than
WFP’s assists 100 million people
“the bottom of the bottom billion”
70% of food and nutrition
requirements

5. A changing risk environment
 Resource scarcity and degradation (land, water, food,
energy, biodiversity)
 Climate change, a hunger risk multiplier
 Food price volatility
 Intensifying disasters trends
 Governance challenges, migration, conflict
 Equity, poverty, development challenges
 Inter-dependency and complexity of risk drivers

6. Disaster and extreme weather trends
Droughts
Floods
Storms

7. Price volatility
 9 billion people by 2050
 50-70% more food needed
 Decreasing stocks and increasing demand

8. Intensifying hunger risks

9. Towards an expanding food security challenge
1 billion hungry people at People who are or may be or
present become vulnerable to future risks
Climate impact
Resource scarcity and degradation
Food price volatility
Disasters
Population growth
Conflict
…
... leading to changing scenarios of food
insecurity, ie, massive urbanization,
further depletion of resources, new
governance challenges, conflict...

10. 2. Back to the basics: vulnerable livelihoods’ food
access
Household food
access
Investments in
productive
Food aid Gathering Own production Food assets, inputs
and barter Hunting (food or cash crop,
purchases and technologies
livestock, fish farm)
Other essential
non-food
Sales Cash income expenditures
(clothes, health,
education)
Non-agricultural Cash Debts
Trading Employment
production receipts incurred

11. Vulnerable livelihoods’ cycle of food insecurity
and poverty
Household Food
Availability Livelihoods and
food needs met
Seasonal/transitional food No shortages in a
shortages good year, but
little margin

12. Vulnerable livelihoods’ cycle of food insecurity
and poverty (cont.)
Drought
Household Food
Livelihoods and
food needs met
Availability
Major drought/shock has
immediate and long term impacts
on household livelihoods

13. Vulnerable livelihoods’ cycle of food insecurity
and poverty (cont.)
Household Food
Livelihoods and
food needs met
Availability
Reducing quality or
quantity of meals
Sale or loss of
Children drop assets and
out of school negative coping
Exacerbated land
degradation

14. 3. Breaking the cycle: supporting vulnerable HHs
achieve FNS and resilience
Drought
Household Food
Livelihoods and
food needs met
Availability
 ensuring sufficient food availability through own production and functioning
markets
 supporting local and national resilience building strategies helping vulnerable
people enhance their food and nutrition security
 protecting people from seasonal shortages and disasters ensuring access to
nutritious food

15. 4. Can CSA work in the context of food insecurity?
Yes, as part of a broader approach to food systems and FNS
social
services
empower safety
-ment nets
Food security
CSA & resilience insurance
risk market
management access
…

16. CSA approaches must be context sensitive...
Context A Context B Most vulnerable and
food insecure areas
Productivity
Adaptation
Mitigation
Productivity
Productivity
Adaptation
Adaptation
Mitigation
Mitigation

17. CSA can add value when it
supports measures that address
basic FNS needs:
 Asset creation for livelihoods enhancement and
resilience
 Affordable technologies, including
ecosystem/landscape management/NRM, agro-
forestry
 DRM enhancement, including innovative risk
transfer
 Productive safety nets (for protection and
incentives)
 Enhanced access to land and markets
 Strengthen local food systems and economies

18. WFP’s experience
• FNS security, livelihoods and
vulnerability focus
• Emergencies, transitions, development
• Linking Risk Management, resilience
and adaptation (assets, resources and
capacities)
• Productive safety nets
• NRM, land rehabilitation and
reclamation (e.g. Ethiopia, Kenya,
Sudan, Somalia, Uganda, Niger…)

19. WFP’s experience
• Gender focus
• Linking farmers to markets:
Purchase for Progress (P4P) and Home-
grown school feeding
 Innovative risk transfer and insurance:
 HARITA/ R4:
“weather-insurance-for-work”
 LEAP:
“climate-proofing” Ethiopia’s PSNP

20. 5. Conclusion
In vulnerable areas “CSA-type” approaches
must be framed as part of broader FNS policy
efforts that:
 Are people centered, community based and
supporting local resilience strategies
 Address drivers of vulnerability, risk and
food and nutrition insecurity
 Empower communities and provide
opportunities for the most vulnerable and
at risk
 Improve governance and enable action
locally and at scale
 Foster sustainable development

21. Thank you.