Presentation given at the Belmont Forum on December 17th, 2012. Learn more about CCAFS at: http://ccafs.cgiar.org/

1. Food security as influenced by
land-use and climate changes
Thomas Rosswall
Chair, CCAFS Independent Science Panel

2. UN MDG Summit September 2010
"It is clear that improvements in the lives
of the poor have been unacceptably
slow, and some hard-won gains are
being eroded by the climate, food and
economic crises"
UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon in the foreword to
the Millennium Development Goals Report to the
Summit.

3. Global Food Hunger Index
Decrease 2012
vs. 1990
17 December 2012 Belmont Forum 3

4. 17 December 2012 Belmont Forum 4

5. Consumption and emissions
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6. Changing consumption patterns
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7. Agriculture and biodiversity
17 December 2012 Belmont Forum 7
Re

8. Food and planetary boundaries
(Duncan Green,
Oxfam, 2011)
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9. 17 December 2012 Belmont Forum 9

10. Global change and food research
2009-2021
2001-2011
1992-2003
17 December 2012 Belmont Forum 10

11. The big disconnect
Development and global change
have been addressed, researched,
and funded as unrelated issues
Major conclusion of ICSU-IGFA Krusenberg Workshop 2005
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12. The Opportunity
Global
D4G
Business
As Usual
Development
Global for Global
Change Change
Siloed Integrated
Business
As Usual
Development
Research
Adapted from Sara Farley, The World Bank, Local
ICSU-IGFA Krusenberg meeting (2005).
17 December 2012 Belmont Forum 12

13. The big disconnect
Development and global change
have been addressed, researched,
and funded as unrelated issues
Major conclusion of ICSU-IGFA Krusenberg Workshop 2005
Future Earth is the response to the need for
international, integrated, collaborative and
solution-orientated research to respond to the
challenges of global environmental change
and sustainable development.
Future Earth Research for Global Sustainability, December 2012
17 December 2012 Belmont Forum 13

14. Multi-Scale Approach
High order, strategic
Regional diagnosis of opportunities
Across geographies
constraints and
Targeting and stratification
opportunities Earth system
Immediate investment
decisions plus regional
science
capability building
Validation
Targeting
Food system
cross-scale Potential for cross-scale
analyses linkages
Development
science
Particular technologies
Particular contexts
Technologies targeted to
Exploring and supporting region, market, farm, livelihood
local interventions Solution-focused
M. Stafford Smith (2010)
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15. CCAFS a collaborative
initiative
2009
2013
17 December 2012 Belmont Forum 15

16. CCAFS objectives
1. Identify and develop pro-
poor adaptation, risk
management and mitigation
practices, technologies and
policies for agriculture and
food systems.
2. Support agricultural issues in
climate change policies,
and of climate issues in
agricultural policies, at all
levels.
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17. Where CCAFS works
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18. The CCAFS framework
Adapting Agriculture to
Climate Variability and Change
Technologies, practices, partnerships and
policies for:
Improved
1.Adaptation to progressive climate Environmental Improved
change Health Rural
2.Adaptation through managing climate Livelihoods
risk Improved
3.Pro-poor climate change mitigation Food
Security
4. Integration for decision making
Linking Knowledge with Action
Assembling Data and Tools for Analysis and
Planning
Refining Frameworks for Policy Analysis
Enhanced adaptive capacity
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19. Theme 1.
Adaptation to
Progressive
Climate
Change
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20. Adaptation to progressive
climate change 1
>> Spotlight on: The AMKN
Platform What CCAFS output?
Portal to share
knowledge on
agricultural adaptation
and mitigation
Why is it useful?
knowledge and
scientific knowledge;
connects broad
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www.amkn.org

21. Adaptation to progressive
climate change 1
>> Spotlight on: The Climate Analogue
Tool What CCAFS output?
Identifies the range of
places whose current
climates correspond to the
future of a chosen locality
Why is it useful?
Choice of sites for cross-site
farmer visits and
participatory crop and
17 December 2012
livestock trials
Belmont Forum 21

22. Theme 2.
Managing
Climate
17 December 2012 Risk
Belmont Forum 22

23. Managing climate risk 2
>> Spotlight on: Current local practices
What CCAFS outputs?
Surveys of current risk
management
knowledge and
practices
Why is it useful?
To build on real assets;
identify transferable
technologies and
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institutions 23

24. Managing climate risk 2
>> Spotlight on: Reconstructing climate
data What CCAFS outputs?
Google tool for Ethiopia
scaled up across Africa
Filling gaps in
meteorological records in
partnership with local met
services and WMO
Why is it useful?
Crucial for calculating
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index insurance, 24
forecasting food crisis, etc.

25. Theme 3.
Pro-poor
17 December 2012
mitigation
Belmont Forum 25

26. Pro-poor mitigation 3
>> Spotlight on: Carbon project action
research What CCAFS outputs?
Cross-project learning
on best-bet institutional
models across East and
West Africa
Why is it useful?
Direct link between
research and action
Strong demand from
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managers.

27. Pro-poor mitigation 3
>> Spotlight on: State-of-the-art agricultural
mitigation
What CCAFS outputs?
Earthscan book of current
knowledge
Lessons from REDD+ for
agriculture
Why are they useful?
Maximizing opportunities,
avoiding pitfalls in future
systems for ag mitigation
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28. Theme 4. Integration
for decision making
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29. Integration for decision
making 4
>> Spotlight on: Baseline survey
What CCAFS
outputs? villages, with
36 sites, 252
5,040 households
Why is it useful?
Sites for participatory action
research
Guidance for research foci
Basis for formal evaluation of
program impacts
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30. Integration for decision
making 4
>> Spotlight on:
What CCAFS
outputs?
A tool to generate daily data
that are characteristic of
future climatologies for any
point on the globe
Why is it useful?
To aid planning & drive
agricultural impact models to
inform resource allocation
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http://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/MarkSimGCM/

31. 2013 CCAFS budget
Income:
CGIAR Consortium $37.3 million
Remaining CRP funds $ 1.7 million
Bilateral funds $17.8 million
Total $56.8 million
Expenditure
Theme 1 Adapt. progressive change 40%
Theme 2 Adap. managing climate risk 16%
Theme 3 Pro-poor mitigation 18%
Theme 4 Integr. for decision making 26%
Ca. 70% to CGIAR Centres and 30% to partners
(i.e., more than $15m)
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32. Take action across the
whole food system
From Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change, 2012
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33. Transformation in agriculture
The change
should be
responsive and
anticipatory
with a high
level of
adaptive
capacity.
Farmers strongly
attached to their land
Rickards & Howden, 2012
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34. Competition for land
Globally, per capita arable land area will
continue to decrease (0.415 ha in 1961 to
0.214 in 2007), while we need to increase
production by at least 60%.
Land-sharing vs. land-sparing
Biomass for energy
Land for non-food production system
Conservation and biodiversity protection
Urban and other infrastructure expansion on
agricultural land
Land for recreational and cultural purposes
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35. Draft Belmont research topics
1. Evolution of farming systems and food security
- Plausible futures for farming, livelihood and
environment? Regional perspectives with case
studies in selected countries. Participatory scenario
work with stakeholders.
- Where should food be produced to feed the global
population?
- What are the realistic opportunities to close yield
gaps?
- What changes in patterns of land-use can be
anticipated with major shift in crop suitability under
new climates?
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36. Draft Belmont research topics
2. Land allocation for alternative purposes and impacts
on food production. Should include foreign
acquisitions and global market impacts
- How much will land-use change be driven by per
capita consumption vs. population growth?
- Trade-offs between food and energy production at
local/regional scale. Effects on socio-economic and
environmental conditions?
- What are land-use implications for various dietary
and energy scenarios?
- Which market governance mechanisms are best
able to incentivise land-users with net positive
outcomes?
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37. Draft Belmont research topics
3. Land tenure and intensification vs.
extensification
- Intensification vs. extensification in balancing
trade-offs between ecosystem services (C
sequestration, etc.) and socio-economic
conditions
- Intensification without expansion onto non-
and land governance?
- How can we ensure that land-owners benefit
from various ecosystem services?
- How will attempts to preserve biodiversity affect
food production?
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38. Draft Belmont research topics
4. Affordability of food
- How will food prices vary under different global-
regional scenarios?
- How will prices evolve in relation to extreme
events?
- How will farm and non-farm income vary under
different global-regional scenarios?
- How will conservation of natural land cover
affect livelihoods and income-generating
opportunities and hence access to food?
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39. Belmont CRA principles
Address the Belmont Challenge priorities (i.e.,
societally relevant global environmental
change challenges). Assume that they should
be aligned with Future Earth.
Lever Belmont Forum members existing
investments through international added value
Bring together new partnerships of natural
scientists, social scientists and users (i.e., co-
design as an important principle of Future
Earth)
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40. New partnerships are essential
In the past ...
Governments
Scientists
Farmers
Increasingly and in the future ...
Farmers
Private sector
Scientists
Civil society
Governments
... with participatory agenda setting.
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41. Thank you!
Stay in touch
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follow us on twitter @cgiarclimate
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