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Climate change and agriculture
– Danish results and initiatives


          John Hermansen,
          Dept Agroecology
          Aarhus University
              Denmark



         AGRICULTURE   AND   RURAL DEVELOPMENT DAY, DURBAN, SOUTH AFRICA 3RD DECEMBER 2011
Livestock density in Denmark
(livestock units per ha)


                                           Among the countries in the world with largest
                                           proportion of land utilized for agriculture

                                                     Per ha agriculture land
                                                     •  1800 kg of milk
                                                     •  750 kg of pork

                                      Livestock units (LSU) totally in 2003
                                      Per ha cultivated land (excl. set-aside)
                                                                  LSU/ha
                                                                 LSU/ha
                                                                 LSU/ha
                                                                 LSU/ha
                                                                 LSU/ha
                                                                  LSU/ha
                                                                  LSU/ha




                 AGRICULTURE   AND   RURAL DEVELOPMENT DAY, DURBAN, SOUTH AFRICA 3RD DECEMBER 2011
Danish Agriculture


•  Average size of holdings approx 70 ha
•  Specialized farms
•  Typical dairy holding
    •  140 dairy cows with 9000 kg milk per cow
•  Typical sow herd
    •  360 sows each producing 28 piglets per year




                   AGRICULTURE   AND   RURAL DEVELOPMENT DAY, DURBAN, SOUTH AFRICA 3RD DECEMBER 2011
Development in Danish agricultural
  production (000’ ton/year)
                                                                  1990	
               2000	
               2010	
  

Agricultural	
  land,	
  %	
  of	
  total	
                         65	
                 63	
                 62	
  

Milk	
                                                            4600	
               4600	
               4600	
  

Beef	
                                                             224	
                156	
                130	
  

Pork	
                                                            1444	
               1672	
               1900	
  

Cereal	
                                                          9200	
               9200	
               9100	
  



                                           AGRICULTURE   AND   RURAL DEVELOPMENT DAY, DURBAN, SOUTH AFRICA 3RD DECEMBER 2011
Focus on agriculture and environment
for many years

•  Ban on burning of straw on fields

•  Action Plans for the aquatic Environment

•  Ammonia Action Plan

•  Action Plan for Joint Biogas Plants

•  Environmental Approval Act for Livestock Holdings

•  New Energy Policy Agreement, supporting biogas

•  Agreement on Green Growth 2009: Reduction of the agricultural sector’s

  emissions of greenhouse gasses.
                       AGRICULTURE   AND   RURAL DEVELOPMENT DAY, DURBAN, SOUTH AFRICA 3RD DECEMBER 2011
Achievements in resource efficiency following
action plans for nitrogen use and manure handling


Year                                                      1980                      2010
Share of agricultural land, %                                66                       62
Production, 000’ t
•  Milk                                                    4900                     4600
•  Pork                                                    1000                     1900
Consumption, 000’ t
•  Fertilizer N                                             400                      210
•  Feed N                                                    80                       70




                        AGRICULTURE   AND   RURAL DEVELOPMENT DAY, DURBAN, SOUTH AFRICA 3RD DECEMBER 2011
GHG emissions from Danish agriculture
       was markedly reduced 1990-2010
18
16
                                        18
14
                                        16
12
                                        14
10                                                                                       Kulstof
                                                                                           Carbon (net)
                                        12
8                                                                                        Lattergas oxides
                                                                                           Nitrous
                   CO2-eq (mill. ton)




                                        10                                                                                     Kulstof
6                                                                                         Methane
                                                                                         Methan
                                         8                                                                                     Lattergas
4
                                         6                                                                                     Methan
2
                                         4
0
                                         2
     1990   2000   2010                 2020      2030        2040        2050
                                         0
                                                1990         2000        2010     2020      2030      2040      2050

                                               AGRICULTURE   AND   RURAL DEVELOPMENT DAY, DURBAN, SOUTH AFRICA 3RD DECEMBER 2011
Governmental initiative 2009 - Green
growth in the agricultural sector

•    Further reduction of N to aquatic environment

•    Reduced GHG emission 0.8 mill t/year

•    Support to increased land for nature

•    Agriculture as supplier of green energy

•    Increased area with organic agriculture

•    Support to environmental and climate friendly technologies

•    Increased focus on high value food chains

•    Work for greening the Common Agricultural Policy
                        AGRICULTURE   AND   RURAL DEVELOPMENT DAY, DURBAN, SOUTH AFRICA 3RD DECEMBER 2011
Estimated effect of major measures on
GHG emissions (mill ton CO2-eq per year by 2020)



Present emissions from agriculture                                                              10.0

Increased use of manure for biogas (less emissions and                                             0.8
saved fossil energy)

Short rotation willow crops and biomass from maintenance                                           0.5
of semi-natural lowland areas (saved fossil energy and soil
carbon)
After Dalgaard et al 2011




                            AGRICULTURE   AND   RURAL DEVELOPMENT DAY, DURBAN, SOUTH AFRICA 3RD DECEMBER 2011
Example of management options to reduce
Green House Gas emissions in pork


                                                                            Manure
 Manure for biogas (2.0)
                                                                            Feed

                                                                            Energy stb.
 pH reduction in manure
        (2.7)                                                               Emisions stb.

                                                                            Slaughter

    Feed efficiency (2.8)



    Denmark 2010 (3.1)


                            -1    0    1      2     3                  4
                                 kg CO2e - per kg pork
                             AGRICULTURE   AND   RURAL DEVELOPMENT DAY, DURBAN, SOUTH AFRICA 3RD DECEMBER 2011
Management options to reduce environmental
     impact of pork production, per kg carcass weight


                                      Base               Feed efficiency            pH reduc.           Biogas
                                      2010                                           manure

Global Warming, kg CO2         e        3.1                       2.8                    2.7               2.0

Acidification, g SO2   e                 56                        51                     31               56

Eutrophication, g NO3      e            243                       220                    217              236

Fossil energy, MJ                        21                        20                     21               11

Land use , m2                           5.8                       5.3                    5.8               5.8



                                   AGRICULTURE   AND   RURAL DEVELOPMENT DAY, DURBAN, SOUTH AFRICA 3RD DECEMBER 2011
Carbon sinks and sources in agriculture


Year                                                              1990                      2009
Net CO 2 emission, mill ton CO 2-eq

Cropland management                                                 3.2                      1.4
Grazing land management                                             0.3                      0.2
Total                                                               3.5                      1.6
Forecast: stabilized soil carbon
Denmarks National Inventory Report 2011




                                AGRICULTURE   AND   RURAL DEVELOPMENT DAY, DURBAN, SOUTH AFRICA 3RD DECEMBER 2011
Conclusion

•  Agriculture has an important role in mitigating GHG-emission

•  Increased resource efficiency is one key element that at the
   same time reduce GHG and allows economic growth

•  Targeted non-food biomass production may combine overall
   environmental protection with energy production

•  Agricultural practice can be changed to ensure long term soil
   carbon sequestration

•  The role of agriculture in climate change should be
   acknowledged and initiatives to support this role should be high
   on the agenda
                     AGRICULTURE   AND   RURAL DEVELOPMENT DAY, DURBAN, SOUTH AFRICA 3RD DECEMBER 2011
Monitoring changes in soil carbon
from 1987 and onwards to stimulate to carbon sequestration practises




                                                •  464 locations

                                                •  Three depths

                                                •  Determined by high
                                                    resolution GPS technique




                     AGRICULTURE   AND   RURAL DEVELOPMENT DAY, DURBAN, SOUTH AFRICA 3RD DECEMBER 2011

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Learning Event No 12, Session 2 From Agriculture and Rural Development Day (ARDD) 2011

  • 1. Climate change and agriculture – Danish results and initiatives John Hermansen, Dept Agroecology Aarhus University Denmark AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT DAY, DURBAN, SOUTH AFRICA 3RD DECEMBER 2011
  • 2. Livestock density in Denmark (livestock units per ha) Among the countries in the world with largest proportion of land utilized for agriculture Per ha agriculture land •  1800 kg of milk •  750 kg of pork Livestock units (LSU) totally in 2003 Per ha cultivated land (excl. set-aside) LSU/ha LSU/ha LSU/ha LSU/ha LSU/ha LSU/ha LSU/ha AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT DAY, DURBAN, SOUTH AFRICA 3RD DECEMBER 2011
  • 3. Danish Agriculture •  Average size of holdings approx 70 ha •  Specialized farms •  Typical dairy holding •  140 dairy cows with 9000 kg milk per cow •  Typical sow herd •  360 sows each producing 28 piglets per year AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT DAY, DURBAN, SOUTH AFRICA 3RD DECEMBER 2011
  • 4. Development in Danish agricultural production (000’ ton/year) 1990   2000   2010   Agricultural  land,  %  of  total   65   63   62   Milk   4600   4600   4600   Beef   224   156   130   Pork   1444   1672   1900   Cereal   9200   9200   9100   AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT DAY, DURBAN, SOUTH AFRICA 3RD DECEMBER 2011
  • 5. Focus on agriculture and environment for many years •  Ban on burning of straw on fields •  Action Plans for the aquatic Environment •  Ammonia Action Plan •  Action Plan for Joint Biogas Plants •  Environmental Approval Act for Livestock Holdings •  New Energy Policy Agreement, supporting biogas •  Agreement on Green Growth 2009: Reduction of the agricultural sector’s emissions of greenhouse gasses. AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT DAY, DURBAN, SOUTH AFRICA 3RD DECEMBER 2011
  • 6. Achievements in resource efficiency following action plans for nitrogen use and manure handling Year 1980 2010 Share of agricultural land, % 66 62 Production, 000’ t •  Milk 4900 4600 •  Pork 1000 1900 Consumption, 000’ t •  Fertilizer N 400 210 •  Feed N 80 70 AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT DAY, DURBAN, SOUTH AFRICA 3RD DECEMBER 2011
  • 7. GHG emissions from Danish agriculture was markedly reduced 1990-2010 18 16 18 14 16 12 14 10 Kulstof Carbon (net) 12 8 Lattergas oxides Nitrous CO2-eq (mill. ton) 10 Kulstof 6 Methane Methan 8 Lattergas 4 6 Methan 2 4 0 2 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT DAY, DURBAN, SOUTH AFRICA 3RD DECEMBER 2011
  • 8. Governmental initiative 2009 - Green growth in the agricultural sector •  Further reduction of N to aquatic environment •  Reduced GHG emission 0.8 mill t/year •  Support to increased land for nature •  Agriculture as supplier of green energy •  Increased area with organic agriculture •  Support to environmental and climate friendly technologies •  Increased focus on high value food chains •  Work for greening the Common Agricultural Policy AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT DAY, DURBAN, SOUTH AFRICA 3RD DECEMBER 2011
  • 9. Estimated effect of major measures on GHG emissions (mill ton CO2-eq per year by 2020) Present emissions from agriculture 10.0 Increased use of manure for biogas (less emissions and 0.8 saved fossil energy) Short rotation willow crops and biomass from maintenance 0.5 of semi-natural lowland areas (saved fossil energy and soil carbon) After Dalgaard et al 2011 AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT DAY, DURBAN, SOUTH AFRICA 3RD DECEMBER 2011
  • 10. Example of management options to reduce Green House Gas emissions in pork Manure Manure for biogas (2.0) Feed Energy stb. pH reduction in manure (2.7) Emisions stb. Slaughter Feed efficiency (2.8) Denmark 2010 (3.1) -1 0 1 2 3 4 kg CO2e - per kg pork AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT DAY, DURBAN, SOUTH AFRICA 3RD DECEMBER 2011
  • 11. Management options to reduce environmental impact of pork production, per kg carcass weight Base Feed efficiency pH reduc. Biogas 2010 manure Global Warming, kg CO2 e 3.1 2.8 2.7 2.0 Acidification, g SO2 e 56 51 31 56 Eutrophication, g NO3 e 243 220 217 236 Fossil energy, MJ 21 20 21 11 Land use , m2 5.8 5.3 5.8 5.8 AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT DAY, DURBAN, SOUTH AFRICA 3RD DECEMBER 2011
  • 12. Carbon sinks and sources in agriculture Year 1990 2009 Net CO 2 emission, mill ton CO 2-eq Cropland management 3.2 1.4 Grazing land management 0.3 0.2 Total 3.5 1.6 Forecast: stabilized soil carbon Denmarks National Inventory Report 2011 AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT DAY, DURBAN, SOUTH AFRICA 3RD DECEMBER 2011
  • 13. Conclusion •  Agriculture has an important role in mitigating GHG-emission •  Increased resource efficiency is one key element that at the same time reduce GHG and allows economic growth •  Targeted non-food biomass production may combine overall environmental protection with energy production •  Agricultural practice can be changed to ensure long term soil carbon sequestration •  The role of agriculture in climate change should be acknowledged and initiatives to support this role should be high on the agenda AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT DAY, DURBAN, SOUTH AFRICA 3RD DECEMBER 2011
  • 14. Monitoring changes in soil carbon from 1987 and onwards to stimulate to carbon sequestration practises •  464 locations •  Three depths •  Determined by high resolution GPS technique AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT DAY, DURBAN, SOUTH AFRICA 3RD DECEMBER 2011