1. HIGHLIGHTS
NORTH AMERICA
COLLIERS.COM
Q3 2014 | OFFICE
MARKET INDICATORS
Relative to prior period
NORTH AMERICAN OFFICE MARKET
Summary Statistics, Q3 2014
US
Q3
2014
US
Q4
2014*
Canada
Q3
2014
Canada
Q4
2014*
VACANCY
NET ABSORPTION
CONSTRUCTION
RENTAL RATE**
*Projected Construction is the change in Under Construction.
**Rental rates for current quarter are for CBD Class A space.
Rent forecast is for metro-wide rents.
US CAN NA
VACANCY RATE (%) 13.46% 8.43% 13.11%
CHANGE FROM Q2 2014 (%) -0.22% -0.12% -0.21%
ABSORPTION (MSF) 16.6 1.2 17.8
NEW CONSTRUCTION (MSF) 7.4 0.6 8.0
UNDER CONSTRUCTION (MSF) 88.9 20.7 109.6
ASKING RENTS PER SF US CAN
DOWNTOWN CLASS A ($) $45.68 $49.89
CHANGE FROM Q2 2014 (%) 1.5% 2.7%
SUBURBAN CLASS A ($) $27.61 $30.32
CHANGE FROM Q2 2014 (%) 1.3% -1.3%
Tech, Sun Belt Office Markets
Lead Broad Recovery
ANDREA CROSS National Office Research Manager | USA
KEY TAKEAWAYS
• Job growth drove office demand in both the U.S. and Canada through the first three quarters of
2014. Employment grew year-over-year in both countries, with the U.S. on pace to create the
most jobs in 2014 since 1999.
• U.S. office-using employment growth was even stronger than overall job growth, at 2.8%
year-over-year in September compared with 1.9% growth in total payrolls. About 1.3 office-using
jobs have been added during the recovery for every 1 office-using job lost in the recession.
• Indicative of the broadening economic and office market recoveries, just 15 of the 84 U.S. metro
areas tracked by Colliers lost office-using jobs year-over-year in August 2014. Previous laggards
such as Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Sacramento, Phoenix and Jacksonville were among the
strongest markets for office-using job growth.
• The North American vacancy rate in Q3 2014 decreased by 21 basis points to 13.1%, with
improvements in both the U.S. and Canada. The U.S. vacancy rate of 13.5% was the lowest
since Q2 2008.
• North American absorption of 17.8 million square feet (MSF) in Q3 2014 was the highest
quarterly total this year, with both the U.S. and Canada posting positive absorption both in Q3
2014 and year-to-date.
• In a notable shift from recent quarters, absorption in the primary finance, insurance and real
estate (FIRE) markets at 6.9 MSF nearly equaled the 7.9 MSF of absorption in the primary
intellectual capital, energy and education (ICEE) markets. With the ICEE markets having led the
current recovery, strong absorption in the FIRE markets indicates how much the recovery has
broadened to include markets driven by more traditional office-using industries.
• Construction activity continued to tick up in Q3 2014 but remains highly concentrated in a small
number of markets. More than 60% of the 110 MSF underway in North America is located in the
top 10 metro areas.
• According to Real Capital Analytics, North American office transaction volume reached $32.0
billion in Q3 2014, the highest total this year. Demand from both domestic and cross-border
investors remains voracious, particularly given softening economic conditions elsewhere around
the globe. We expect stronger office market fundamentals in secondary and tertiary markets to
attract greater investor interest into 2015, further boosting aggregate transaction volume.
2. P. 2 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
HIGHLIGHTS | Q3 2014 | OFFICE | NORTH AMERICA
U.S. ECONOMIC TRENDS
The U.S. economic recovery continued at a healthy clip through Q3
2014. Year-to-date through September, U.S. employers added more than
2 million positions, putting the economy on pace to add the most jobs
this year since 1999. Unlike earlier in the cycle, where industries such as
tech, energy, education and healthcare drove growth, job gains in recent
months have been broad-based, with even the lagging government
sector increasing slowly in recent months.
The story has been even more positive for office-using employment.
Growth in the primary office-using employment sectors (professional and
business services, financial activities and information services) continues
to track ahead of the recovery in overall employment, with 2.8% year-
over-year growth in office-using jobs in September compared with 1.9%
growth in overall payrolls. The U.S. economy has added approximately 1.3
office-using jobs for every 1 job lost during the recession, compared with
1.1 jobs added in all sectors for every 1 lost during the recession. Office-
using employment surpassed 30 million jobs for the first time in September
and now stands about 727,000 positions more than the prerecession peak
in July 2007.
SF by Region
Absorption by Market (SF)
Q2 2014 to Q3 2014
2,300,000
1,150,000
230,000
-230,000
-1,150,000
-2,300,000
2 billion
1 billion
200 million
Occupied SF
Vacant SF
13.0% vac.
OFFICE VACANCY, INVENTORY & ABSORPTION | Q3 2014 | NORTH AMERICA
The economic recovery has also broadened geographically. Of the 84
U.S. metro areas tracked by Colliers, just 15 of them lost office-using jobs
between August 2013 and August 2014. Also, more than half of the metro
areas have recovered all of the office-using jobs lost during the recession.
No longer is the list dominated by intellectual capital, energy and education
(ICEE) markets; among the strongest markets for office-using job growth in
August were Jacksonville, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Sacramento, Orlando,
Phoenix and the Inland Empire (Calif.) -- metro areas that all were hit
particularly hard by the housing and financial crises.
The professional and business services sector remains the most
significant driver of office-using employment growth, but financial
activities continues to improve at a moderate pace, with growth
concentrated in lower-cost Sun Belt and Midwest metro areas such as
St. Louis, Phoenix, Jacksonville, Nashville, Raleigh and multiple Texas
metro areas. Traditional higher-cost financial centers such as Nassau-
Suffolk, Hartford, Bridgeport, Chicago, Los Angeles, Newark and Orange
County have been among the slowest to recover jobs in the financial
activities sector. Firms including Deutsche Bank, UBS, Charles Schwab
and Goldman Sachs have been moving operations to lower-cost areas in
recent years, driving this trend.
3. HIGHLIGHTS | Q3 2014 | OFFICE | NORTH AMERICA
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 3
Looking forward, we expect the economic recovery to continue at a similar
pace through 2015. IHS Global Insight projects an addition of nearly 2.5
million jobs in 2014, increasing slightly to nearly 2.6 million jobs in 2015.
This would amount to four consecutive years of net job gains exceeding
2 million — the longest such stretch since the 1997-2000 period. GDP
should also reflect these positive economic trends. Due to poor weather
conditions early in the year, IHS predicts only a small improvement in GDP
growth: 2.29% in 2014, up slightly from 2.22% in 2013. However, growth
is projected to accelerate to 2.74% in 2015.
CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT FROM CYCLICAL PEAK | US
Total Employment Office-Using Employment Professional & Business Services Financial Activities
MONTHS
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93
Note: Latest data as of September 2014; x-axis indicates number of months elapsed since each sector’s
previous cyclical employment peak; office-using employment sectors include professional and business
services, financial activities and information services; information services not displayed separately
because sector peaked in 2001. | Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Colliers International.
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Vacancy%
Absorption MSF Completions MSF Vac Rate (%)
14.73 14.63 14.49 14.45 14.15 14.00 13.93 13.69 13.46
Q3 2012 Q4 Q1 2013 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2014 Q2 Q3
OFFICE MARKET | Q3 2012–Q3 2014 | US
Source: Colliers International.
MSA % CHANGE MSA % CHANGE
St. Louis 400.0% Phoenix 141.4%
Dallas-Fort Worth 360.2% Jacksonville 131.1%
Nashville 338.9% Raleigh 121.4%
Omaha 266.7% Cincinnati 118.4%
Austin 265.5% Birmingham 117.9%
Pittsburgh 213.6% Houston 109.1%
Richmond 145.7%
UNITED STATES 41.1%
Note: All data are seasonally adjusted as of August 2014;
Includes markets tracked by Colliers with at least 25,000 financial activities jobs as of August 2014.
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Colliers International.
MARKETS WITH FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES EMPLOYMENT AT OR ABOVE
PRERECESSION PEAK | AUGUST 2014 | US
MSA
PERCENT
RECOVERED
MSA
PERCENT
RECOVERED
Austin 496.1% Columbus 170.3%
Raleigh 362.6% Charlotte 169.9%
Nashville 333.1% St. Louis 168.6%
San Francisco 280.0% Baltimore 162.1%
Pittsburgh 244.3% Denver 161.0%
San Jose 243.9% Jacksonville 152.5%
Dallas-Fort Worth 243.6% Atlanta 147.7%
Houston 230.9% Boston 137.6%
Omaha 191.8% Minneapolis 131.2%
Indianapolis 173.5% Seattle 130.6%
UNITED STATES 125.6%
Note: All data are seasonally adjusted as of August 2014; Includes markets tracked by Colliers with at least
100,000 office-using jobs as of August 2014.
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Colliers International.
TOP 20 MARKETS FOR OFFICE-USING JOBS RECOVERED |
AUGUST 2014 | US
MSA % CHANGE MSA % CHANGE
Raleigh 8.7% Orlando 3.6%
Nashville 6.2% Phoenix 3.6%
Jacksonville 5.3% Inland Empire 3.5%
Austin 5.2% San Jose 3.4%
Dallas-Fort Worth 5.1% Atlanta 3.3%
Las Vegas 4.7% Houston 3.2%
San Francisco 4.0% Miami 3.2%
Charlotte 3.8% Memphis 3.0%
Los Angeles 3.7% St. Louis 2.9%
Sacramento 3.6% Seattle 2.7%
UNITED STATES 2.6%
Note: All data are seasonally adjusted as of August 2014; Includes markets tracked by Colliers with at least
100,000 office-using jobs as of August 2014.
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Colliers International.
FASTEST OFFICE-USING EMPLOYMENT GROWTH | AUG. 2013-2014 | US
4. P. 4 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
HIGHLIGHTS | Q3 2014 | OFFICE | NORTH AMERICA
CANADA ECONOMIC
TRENDS
The Canadian economy continues to expand at a moderate pace, buoyed
by growth in the U.S. but restrained by government cutbacks and
private-sector caution regarding investment. Like the U.S. economy,
growth has rebounded from the weather-impacted Q1 2014 period,
but job creation has been choppy, with alternating gains and losses in
employment each month this year through September. Nonetheless, the
overall trend has been positive, with approximately 157,600 jobs added
year-to-date 2014, up from 106,200 jobs added year-over-year but down
from more than 200,000 jobs added during the first nine months in each
of the prior three years.
Despite the aforementioned headwinds, the Canadian economy should
continue to grow through the remainder of 2014 and 2015, benefiting
from the ongoing recovery of the U.S. economy, energy sector growth
and expansion of the professional, scientific and technical services
sector -- an important driver of demand for office space in markets
including Vancouver and Toronto, and an economic bright spot in
the Canadian economy. The Conference Board of Canada expects
employment growth to slow to 1.0% in 2014 -- the weakest reading
since Canada’s brief recession -- but accelerate thereafter to 1.8% in
2015. Real GDP is projected to increase by 2.0% in 2014, which is on
par with the 2013 growth rate, and to accelerate to 2.7% in 2015. At the
local level, Edmonton and Calgary are projected to remain among the
fastest growing markets in terms of real GDP in 2014 and through the
Conference Board’s forecast period from 2015 to 2018 due to continued
growth in the energy industry and its spillover effect on other sectors.
Vancouver is forecast to be the fastest-growing metro area with job gains
in virtually every sector through 2018.
MARKET VACANCY
(%) MARKET VACANCY
(%)
Toronto, ON 6.62%
New York, NY - Midtown
South Manhattan
8.46%
Montréal, QC 7.31% Saskatoon, SK 8.66%
Bakersfield, CA 7.39% Calgary, AB 8.68%
San Francisco, CA 7.46% Portland, OR 8.95%
Nashville, TN 7.93% Indianapolis, IN 9.43%
NORTH AMERICA 13.11%
LOWEST OVERALL VACANCY RATES | Q3 2014 | NA
2.1% 1.9% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.3%
2.1% 1.9% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.3%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Quebec
City
Toronto
Calgary
W
innipeg
Regina
Halifax
Saskatoon
Ham
ilton
Ottaw
a-Gatineau
Vancouver
Victoria
M
ontreal
Edm
onton
2014f 2015-2018 (CAGR)
CANADA OFFICE EMPLOYMENT GROWTH
CITY 2015F-2018F CITY 2015F-2018F
Vancouver 3.1% Saskatoon 2.5%
Edmonton 3.0% Montreal 2.3%
Calgary 3.0% Hamilton 2.3%
Toronto 2.9% Ottawa 2.1%
Halifax 2.6% Victoria 2.1%
Winnipeg 2.6% Quebec City 2.1%
Regina 2.5%
CANADA 2.3%
Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
CANADA AVERAGE ANNUAL FORECASTED REAL GDP GROWTH %
Source: Colliers International.
Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
“~157,600 jobs added
in Canada year-to-
date 2014”
5. HIGHLIGHTS | Q3 2014 | OFFICE | NORTH AMERICA
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 5
North American Downtown Markets:
Excluding renewals, of the leases signed
this quarter in your CBD/downtown, did
most tenants...?
Hold Steady
58.4%
Expand
19.5%
Contract
14.3%
North American Downtown Markets:
What was the trend in Free Rent (in months)
offered by CBD landlords this quarter?
Same
68.8%
Less
18.2%
More 6.5%
North American Downtown Markets:
What was the trend for tenant improvement
allowances offered by CBD landlords this
quarter?
Same
77.9%
Less
9.1%
More
6.5%
North American Suburban Markets:
Excluding renewals, of the leases signed
this quarter in your suburban market, did
most tenants...?
Hold Steady
52.2%
Expand
30.4%
Contract
17.4%
Note: Charts above reflect % of markets reporting
OFFICE OUTLOOK 2014
BEHIND THE STATISTICS
BEYOND THE BASICS
Scope of Colliers’ Office Outlook Report: Colliers’ office space universe
encompasses 87 markets in the U.S. and Canada, with a combined total
of more than 6.4 billion square feet (BSF). The 75 U.S. markets account
for most of this space, with nearly 6.0 BSF of tracked inventory and the
remaining 449 MSF in Canada. Our coverage includes 21 markets with
more than 100 MSF of space, with a combined total of 3.8 BSF or nearly
60% of our office market inventory. The largest U.S. markets are New
York, Washington, D.C., Chicago, Dallas and Atlanta. Toronto is the only
Canadian market with more than 100 MSF of space.
Vacancy
The North American vacancy rate decreased again in Q3 2014, falling
by 21 basis points to 13.1%. Unlike in recent quarters, this improvement
was not confined to the U.S. office market; the Canadian vacancy rate
decreased as well, as construction completions slowed from recent
quarters. Canadian vacancy dipped below 8.5%, landing at 8.4% in Q3
2014 and remaining nearly five percentage points below the U.S. vacancy
rate. In the U.S., broader economic improvements contributed to a 22
basis-point decrease in the vacancy rate to 13.5%, the lowest rate since
Q2 2008. Both the CBD and suburban vacancy rates decreased, reaching
their lowest respective levels since 2008 as well.
Of the 81 markets reporting both Q2 2014 and Q3 2014 vacancy rates, 57
markets (more than 70%) posted vacancy rate decreases in Q3, which
reflected widespread improvement in office market conditions. ICEE and
Canadian markets continued to dominate the list of markets with the
lowest vacancy rates. These include Toronto, Montreal, San Francisco,
Midtown South Manhattan and Calgary. However, more markets are
benefiting from the recovery, including markets adjacent to ICEE metro
areas that are experiencing more spillover demand from tech and energy
tenants, as well as increases in demand from traditional office tenants
such as business services, finance and insurance companies. In New
York, Downtown Manhattan and Midtown Manhattan were among the top
markets for vacancy rate decrease in Q3, as demand spread beyond the
hot Midtown South Manhattan market. In the San Francisco Bay Area,
both San Francisco and Silicon Valley once again ranked among the top
markets for vacancy rate decrease, as did lagging Oakland. Although San
Francisco and Silicon Valley remain the preferred locations for many tech
tenants, Oakland is starting to see demand from tenants priced out of
these areas. Other markets that have lagged behind in the economic and
office market recoveries also saw significant improvements in vacancy in
Q3 2014, including Stockton, Los Angeles and Stamford.
MARKET
VACANCY
RATE Q2 2014
VACANCY
RATE Q3 2014
BASIS-POINT
CHANGE
Stockton, CA 15.66% 14.12% -155
Montréal, QC 8.68% 7.31% -137
New York, NY - Downtown
Manhattan
13.35% 12.20% -115
Greenville, SC 17.72% 16.68% -103
San Jose - Silicon Valley 10.70% 9.77% -94
Los Angeles, CA 17.97% 17.07% -90
Stamford, CT 20.97% 20.11% -86
San Francisco, CA 8.28% 7.46% -82
New York, NY - Midtown
Manhattan
11.39% 10.57% -82
Kansas City, MO 12.37% 11.60% -77
NORTH AMERICA 13.33% 13.11% -22
LARGEST QUARTER-OVER-QUARTER DECREASE IN OVERALL VACANCY RATE | NA
Source: Colliers International.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
-40
-20
0
20
40
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sq. Ft., Mil.
Absorption (left-axis) US Vacancy Rate (right-axis)
CBD Vacancy Rate (right-axis) Suburban Vacancy Rate (right-axis)
U.S. OFFICE VACANCY
Note: Latest data as of Q3 2014.
Source: Colliers International.
6. P. 6 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
HIGHLIGHTS | Q3 2014 | OFFICE | NORTH AMERICA
Tenant Demand and Leasing Activity
ICEE tenant leasing activity remained robust in 2014, with tenants seeking
markets and properties that enable them to attract and retain top-flight
talent. Technology companies continue to expand in, relocate to or open
satellite offices in both well-established and emerging tech clusters in
order to reap the benefits of these clusters, such as knowledge-sharing,
access to specialized services and capital, and an established talent pool.
Recent examples include Arkansas-based software company Acxiom, which
announced in Q3 2014 plans to open an Austin office, and e-commerce
titan Alibaba, which recently opened an office in Silicon Valley on the heels
of its US IPO and will open a second office in Downtown Seattle near rival
Amazon’s planned 4.1 million-square-foot campus. Boston area-based
healthcare technology firm athenahealth is expanding into Austin and
Atlanta, and is also relocating Bay Area employees from the suburban San
Mateo submarket to San Francisco’s SoMa submarket, citing the strategic
advantage of locating in SoMa in terms of attracting talent and engaging
with clients. Also in San Francisco, Bloomberg announced plans this quarter
to open an RD office, citing the region’s deep talent pool in data science
and analysis. Google continues its astounding rate of expansion in Silicon
Valley, recently purchasing six buildings at Redwood City’s Pacific Shores
Center, which is adjacent to the CalTrain commuter rail, and leasing all of
the 1.9 MSF of space under development at Sunnyvale’s Moffett Place.
The company also purchased 188 Embarcadero and leased 250,000 SF at
One Market’s Spear Tower in San Francisco in Q3 2014, underscoring the
symbiotic technology industry growth occurring in suburban Silicon Valley
and urban San Francisco.
The clustering trend is occurring in other industries as well. In Houston,
energy companies and supporting firms continue to expand in and relocate
to the market. For example, Boston area-based Doble Engineering recently
opened its first Houston office and oil lab, seeking proximity to its energy
industry clients.
Although downtown markets like San Francisco and New York have been
among the fastest-growing areas for tech tenants, other markets that offer
some of the same urban amenities have been benefiting from this growth
as well. Atlanta, which posted the sixth-highest absorption year-to-date
through Q3 2014, has experienced significant growth in its tech sector,
especially submarkets such as Midtown and Buckhead that offer significant
amenities and are transit-accessible. In addition to athenahealth, Twitter and
Amazon have been expanding operations in the Atlanta area as well.
Absorption
North American absorption totaled 17.8 MSF in Q3 2014, up from 16.9 MSF
in Q2 2014 and 13.5 MSF in Q1 2014. Both the U.S. and Canada posted
positive absorption during the quarter as well as year to date. In the U.S.,
absorption totaled 16.6 MSF, the sixth straight quarter in which absorption
was above 14 MSF, and all but 18 of the 72 markets reporting Q3 data
posted positive absorption. Dallas ranked first in quarterly absorption (2.2
MSF), followed by Midtown Manhattan (1.9 MSF), Downtown Manhattan (1.3
MSF) and Phoenix (1.2 MSF). In Canada, five of the nine markets reporting
Q3 data posted positive absorption, led by Montreal (1.1 MSF), Calgary
(449,000 SF) and Ottawa (253,000 SF).
In previous reports, we highlighted the dominance of ICEE markets during
the current recovery. Indeed, this trend continued through the first half of
2014. During the first two quarters of the year, absorption in the primary
ICEE markets totaled 15.1 MSF, roughly two-thirds higher than the 9.2 MSF of
absorption in the primary FIRE markets. However, in Q3 2014, absorption in
the primary FIRE markets totaled 6.9 MSF, nearing the ICEE market total of
7.9 MSF. In fact, all of the primary FIRE markets that Colliers tracks posted
positive absorption year-to-date, and all but two posted positive absorption
in Q3 2014. This is a noteworthy shift in market dynamics and reflects the
contributions to office demand from a greater number of industries and
sectors rather than the handful that dominated earlier in the cycle.
Construction Activity
As the market has improved, office construction activity has increased in
recent quarters but remains low overall and focused on the strongest cities.
Further along in both the economic and office market cycles, Canada is
ahead of the U.S. in terms of new supply. As of Q3 2014, 20.7 MSF were
under construction in the Canadian markets tracked by Colliers, amounting
to 4.6% of existing inventory. In the U.S. markets tracked by Colliers, 88.9
MSF were underway, representing just 1.5% of existing inventory.
Although still trailing the Canadian office market, development activity in the
U.S. has been rising. The amount of space underway in Q3 2014 was the
highest since Q4 2008 and was up nearly 40% from Q3 2013. Construction
activity is occurring in a greater number of U.S. markets; as of Q3 2014, 23
markets had no construction underway, down from 31 one year earlier.
Despite the increase in construction activity, development remains highly
concentrated in a small number of markets. The top 10 U.S. markets
accounted for 60.2 MSF under construction or about 68% of total square
footage underway, the same percentage as one year earlier. Houston
alone accounts for about 16% of North American office space underway
and nearly 20% of U.S. office space under construction. Leading tech
markets San Francisco, Silicon Valley, Boston, Seattle and Midtown South
Manhattan, most of which have vacancy rates below 10%, account for more
than 27 MSF underway or more than 30% of all U.S. office space under
construction. Tech and energy companies continue to aggressively pursue
large blocks of space in new buildings in the most desirable markets and
submarkets in anticipation of future growth, as well as due to a lack of
available existing space in many of these markets. Also, many REITs are
disposing of existing assets and using the proceeds on their development
pipelines in the hottest markets where pricing is nearing or exceeding
replacement costs. As an example of both of these trends, Kilroy Realty
Corporation recently inked a lease with cloud file management provider Box
MARKET
ABSORPTION
(MSF)
MARKET
ABSORPTION
(MSF)
Dallas, TX 2.21 Boston, MA 1.08
NYC - Midtown
Manhattan
1.88 Chicago, IL 0.96
NYC - Downtown
Manhattan
1.27 San Francisco, CA 0.78
Phoenix, AZ 1.24 Los Angeles, CA 0.77
Montréal, QC 1.10
NYC - Midtown
South Manhattan
0.77
YTD NORTH AMERICA ABSORPTION: 17.8 MSF
TOP MARKETS FOR METRO OFFICE ABSORPTION | YTD | NA
Source: Colliers International.
7. P. 7 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
HIGHLIGHTS | Q3 2014 | OFFICE | NORTH AMERICA
Los Angeles County. A lack of large blocks of space, a low overall vacancy
rate compared with the overall Los Angeles market and the revitalization of
the area through mixed-use, residential and entertainment projects in recent
years have been driving investor confidence in the submarket.
Still-low levels of development activity in most markets illustrate the
measured approach to development that developers continue to take during
the current recovery. The ratio of absorption to new supply -- one of the
key metrics that we use to gauge the supply-demand balance of the CRE
markets -- was 2.2:1.0 in Q3 2014, indicating that office users absorbed
more than twice the amount of space that was delivered to the market
during the quarter. Indeed, absorption has outpaced new supply in all but
one quarter since Q3 2010. Based on current construction levels and
positive absorption trends, we expect this trend to persist into 2015.
In addition to overall low levels of construction activity, residential
conversions continue to remove office space from the market, particularly
in dense urban areas favored by the Millennial generation. This trend is
occurring in traditional urban residential markets such as New York, where
Claremont Group recently announced plans to convert a 100,000-square-
foot Financial District office building to luxury condos. However,
conversions are also occurring in historically less popular residential
downtown areas in the South and Midwest in response to demand from
young residents. For example, multiple conversions are planned for or
underway in Downtown Milwaukee, including Vangard Group’s recently
announced redevelopment of the Germania Building. Also, in Downtown
Kansas City, much of the office space in the underused Commerce
Tower was removed from the market in Q3 2014 to be redeveloped into
apartments. The ongoing maturation of a Millennial cohort that is expected
to account for 50% of the workforce by 2020, coupled with an improving
economy that is enabling more young adults to form households, should
drive this trend for the foreseeable future.
CAPITAL MARKETS
TRANSACTION ACTIVITY
Interest rates continue to defy expectations, remaining near historically
low levels despite the end of the Federal Reserve’s bond-buying
programs in October and anticipated interest rate hikes beginning
in 2015. Amid geopolitical turmoil and economic weakness in many
regions across the globe including Europe and Asia, investors continue
to pile into safe U.S. Treasuries, suppressing yields. These fears also
continue to drive demand for both U.S. and Canadian real estate, with
both countries viewed as bright spots globally, especially in light of
the positive economic trends highlighted in this report. In particular,
improving office market fundamentals are attracting greater interest in
the property type. A number of REITs are capitalizing on strong demand
for office assets by disposing of non-core assets. These trends boosted
aggregate transaction volume in the U.S. and Canada to $32.0 billion in
Q3 2014, the highest quarterly total this year according to Real Capital
Analytics. Also, 12-month trailing transaction volume reached $126.1
billion through Q3 2014, the highest 12-month trailing total since Q1
2008.
Average cap rates have decreased to the high end of the 6% range in the
U.S. and the mid-5% range in Canada, but these figures vary wildly by
MSA CONSTRUCTION (MSF)
Houston, TX 17.28
San Jose - Silicon Valley 8.26
Toronto, ON 6.80
Dallas, TX 5.36
Seattle/Puget Sound, WA 5.18
Boston, MA 5.11
San Francisco, CA 4.97
Washington DC 4.74
Calgary, AB 4.63
New York, NY - Midtown South Manhattan 3.60
TOP MARKETS FOR OFFICE SPACE UNDER CONSTRUCTION - Q3 2014 - NA
Note: Rankings are based on the 87 U.S. and Canadian markets tracked by Colliers International.
Source: Colliers International.
for the entire Crossing/900 development under construction in Redwood
City on San Francisco’s Peninsula.
Development is also occurring in submarkets where demand is stronger
than in the overall metropolitan area. Tishman Speyer broke ground in Q3
2014 on the 500,000 square-foot Three Alliance Center, a speculative
office tower in Atlanta’s Buckhead submarket, which has one of the lowest
vacancy rates in the Atlanta metro area. In Kansas City, a lack of Class
A options in Johnson County prompted Block Real Estate Services to
announce groundbreaking on Pinnacle Corporate Centre V in September. In
Los Angeles’ Hollywood submarket, which has successfully attracted tech,
entertainment and other creative tenants in recent years, Hudson Pacific
Properties broke ground in Q3 2014 on 405,000 SF of office space at
Sunset Bronson Studios, bringing the total square footage underway in that
submarket to 1.1 MSF, accounting for 44% of all construction underway in
MARKET
SQUARE FEET
UNDERWAY
% OF EXISTING
INVENTORY
San Jose - Silicon Valley 8,258,649 11.30%
Edmonton, AB 2,287,893 8.58%
Houston, TX 17,277,411 8.18%
Calgary, AB 4,633,348 6.98%
Vancouver, BC 3,208,682 5.88%
San Francisco, CA 4,965,035 5.56%
Toronto, ON 6,801,189 4.91%
Regina, SK 221,000 4.89%
Seattle/Puget Sound, WA 5,184,094 4.62%
Boston, MA 5,108,261 2.91%
NORTH AMERICA 109,556,173 1.71%
CONSTRUCTION AS % OF EXISTING INVENTORY - Q3 2014 - NA
Note: Rankings are based on the 87 U.S. and Canadian markets tracked by Colliers International.
Source: Colliers International
8. P. 8 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
HIGHLIGHTS | Q3 2014 | OFFICE | NORTH AMERICA
region and asset type. Top-tier properties in gateway markets such as San
Francisco and New York have been trading in the 3% to 4% range, while
cap rates for recent transactions in Sacramento and Cincinnati were in the
9.0% to 9.5% range. According to Real Capital Analytics, the average cap
rate in the six major U.S. metros (Boston, Chicago, Washington, D.C., Los
Angeles, New York and San Francisco) decreased to 4.1%, the lowest rate
on record, in Q3 2014, as demand for gateway assets from both domestic
and foreign capital sources remained voracious.
Growth in foreign investment in North American office properties has
been even stronger than overall investment growth. Year-to-date through
October, cross-border investment into the U.S. and Canada totaled $17.9
billion, exceeding the full-year total for 2013 and reaching the highest
level since 2007. In fact, cross-border volume is approaching the previous
cyclical peak of $21.6 billion in 2006, in contrast with overall transaction
volume which has recovered only to about half of its the previous peak.
After Canada, Norway is now the largest cross-border investor in the
U.S. as its government pension fund aggressively pursues assets in
gateway markets including New York, Boston, Washington, D.C., and San
Francisco. Asian countries remain a major source of capital for U.S. office
properties, with Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore, China and Japan
all ranking among the top countries for cross-border flows year-to-date.
Like domestic investors, foreign investors are increasingly considering
secondary markets. In September, German fund Union Investment Real
Estate purchased Target-anchored 50 South 10th Street in Minneapolis
for $330 per square foot, well above the metro average of $113 in Q3
2014 according to Real Capital Analytics data.
Although interest rates have remained low to this point, expectations for
higher interest rates in 2015, particularly following the Fed’s confirmation
of the end of its bond-buying program, should drive a growing amount
of investor interest to geographies that have been less favored up to this
point in the cycle, boosting transaction volume and narrowing cap rate-to-
Treasury spreads in those areas. In particular, suburban assets, especially
those that are accessible to transit options, provide on-site and nearby
amenities, and offer flexible, open floorplans that enable denser employee
configurations, should benefit from growing demand. Secondary and
tertiary markets that have been lagging in the recovery but are starting
to experience stronger employment growth and absorption also should
post stronger transaction activity. In addition, secondary markets with
concentrations of ICEE industries, such as Portland, Pittsburgh, Nashville
and Raleigh-Durham, will likely see greater investor interest as investors
respond to organic growth as well as tenant relocations -- both ICEE
firms and otherwise -- from higher-cost markets such as New York and
San Francisco.
MOODY’S/RCA COMMERCIAL PROPERTY PRICE INDICES - US OFFICE
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Major Market-CBD Non-Major Market-CBD
Major Market-Sub Non-Major Market-Sub
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Pricing Recovery From Recession
Q3 2014 Office
Major Market—CBD 134.9%
Non-Major Market—CBD 89.4%
Major Market Suburban 60.7%
Non-Major Market Suburban 45.6%
Note: Latest data as of Q3 2014.
Sources: Moody’s Investor Service, Real Capital Analytics, Colliers International.
CROSS-BORDER INVESTMENT - NORTH AMERICA
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Bil.
United States Canada
Note: Latest data as of Q3 2014.
Sources: Real Capital Analytics, Colliers International.
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Bil.
12-Month Trailing Volume (left-axis) Year-Over-Year % Change (right-axis)
OFFICE TRANSACTION VOLUME | Q3 2014 | NA
Note: Latest data as of Q3 2014; all data are 12-month trailing.
Sources: Real Capital Analytics; Colliers International.
9. HIGHLIGHTS | Q3 2014 | OFFICE | NORTH AMERICA
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 9
UNITED STATES | DOWNTOWN OFFICE | ALL INVENTORY
MARKET
EXISTING
INVENTORY (SF)
SEP 30, 2014
NEW SUPPLY
Q3 2014 (SF)
YTD NEW
SUPPLY 2014
(SF)
UNDER
CONSTRUCTION
(SF)
VACANCY
RATE
JUNE 30, 2014
VACANCY
RATE
SEP 30, 2014
ABSORPTION
Q3 2014
(SF)
YTD
ABSORPTION
2014 (SF)
NORTHEAST
Baltimore, MD 28,529,527 0 45,000 0 12.87% 12.91% -11,291 -341,284
Boston, MA 62,834,701 0 1,050,000 2,415,827 12.38% 11.12% 787,562 1,462,013
Hartford, CT 9,971,800 0 0 0 13.45% 14.95% -149,721 -129,795
New York, NY - Downtown
Manhattan
110,938,458 0 2,861,402 2,800,000 13.35% 12.20% 1,274,979 3,722,582
New York, NY - Midtown
Manhattan
230,068,701 0 0 0 11.39% 10.57% 1,877,166 1,509,964
New York, NY - Midtown
South Manhattan
162,245,367 0 894,672 3,600,000 8.93% 8.46% 771,943 2,077,793
Philadelphia, PA 42,663,439 0 0 0 11.38% 11.45% -29,567 54,485
Pittsburgh, PA* 32,091,162 0 0 1,560,643 10.28% 9.64% 43,805 38,023
Stamford, CT 18,742,064 0 0 0 20.97% 20.11% 161,374 152,004
Washington DC 144,221,640 168,769 1,032,510 1,529,345 10.73% 10.98% -352,413 -536,525
White Plains, NY 7,672,399 0 0 0 15.79% 14.74% 80,415 -10,214
Northeast Total 849,979,258 168,769 5,883,584 11,905,815 11.42% 10.88% 4,454,252 7,999,046
SOUTH
Atlanta, GA 50,200,536 557,122 557,122 0 15.69% 16.54% 42,603 562,228
Birmingham, AL 4,895,917 0 0 0 21.83% 21.28% 27,062 340,476
Charleston, SC 2,252,548 0 0 21,000 8.52% 8.52% 22 14,903
Charlotte, NC 22,671,115 0 0 0 9.62% 8.68% 213,217 153,203
Columbia, SC 4,678,427 0 0 0 10.82% 10.50% 14,960 24,552
Dallas, TX 32,699,541 0 0 450,000 24.55% 21.99% 837,665 866,064
Ft. Lauderdale-Broward, FL 8,119,105 0 0 0 11.30% 10.72% 46,642 212,622
Ft. Worth, TX 10,195,293 75,971 75,971 0 15.66% 15.64% 66,873 217,851
Greenville, SC 3,317,131 0 0 0 18.38% 16.53% 61,250 54,372
Houston, TX 42,600,630 0 0 1,464,268 11.10% 10.97% 57,502 380,877
Jacksonville, FL 15,572,544 0 0 0 14.19% 15.48% -201,043 -334,528
Little Rock, AR* 6,482,552 0 0 0 10.79% 10.62% 27,815 3,330
Louisville, KY 43,865,629 130,000 429,483 0 10.49% 10.70% 25,146 385,480
Memphis, TN 5,403,149 0 0 0 14.80% 15.03% -12,285 167,036
Miami-Dade, FL 18,730,654 0 0 146,580 17.29% 16.79% 91,992 193,326
Nashville, TN 13,158,325 0 0 209,000 11.56% 11.27% 47,772 170,599
Orlando, FL 12,189,989 0 0 17,124 13.22% 12.87% 42,512 -117,620
Raleigh/Durham/
Chapel Hill, NC
14,274,712 186,000 574,279 242,969 5.91% 5.70% 204,894 496,113
Richmond, VA 16,586,757 0 1,066,662 321,500 11.19% 10.82% 62,562 257,074
Savannah, GA 803,516 0 0 0 11.61% 13.46% -14,921 3,521
Tampa Bay, FL 6,780,530 0 0 0 15.21% 14.62% 40,183 77,047
West Palm Beach/
Palm Beach County, FL
10,182,688 0 0 0 15.09% 14.76% 33,372 94,696
South Total 345,661,288 949,093 2,703,517 2,872,441 13.81% 13.56% 1,715,795 4,223,222
* - Q2-14 data used for Boise, Little Rock and Pittsburgh.
10. P. 10 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
HIGHLIGHTS | Q3 2014 | OFFICE | NORTH AMERICA
UNITED STATES | DOWNTOWN OFFICE | ALL INVENTORY
MARKET
EXISTING
INVENTORY (SF)
SEP 30, 2014
NEW SUPPLY
Q3 2014 (SF)
YTD NEW
SUPPLY 2014
(SF)
UNDER
CONSTRUCTION
(SF)
VACANCY
RATE
JUNE 30, 2014
VACANCY
RATE
SEP 30, 2014
ABSORPTION
Q3 2014
(SF)
YTD
ABSORPTION
2014 (SF)
MIDWEST
Chicago, IL 157,653,431 0 0 1,073,100 12.43% 12.08% 548,703 860,394
Cincinnati, OH 18,749,613 0 0 600,000 15.16% 15.39% -43,484 -30,831
Cleveland, OH 32,537,011 0 0 0 17.47% 17.21% 84,626 146,384
Columbus, OH 19,452,521 0 0 490,000 9.97% 9.51% 91,079 337,908
Detroit, MI 26,415,460 0 0 0 16.78% 17.00% 187,058 383,966
Grand Rapids, MI 5,314,801 0 0 135,000 16.00% 15.64% 18,805 100,936
Indianapolis, IN 22,548,402 0 0 0 9.22% 9.62% -90,006 -96,533
Kansas City, MO 34,485,082 0 0 0 14.65% 13.40% 234,559 381,542
Milwaukee, WI 18,668,691 42,000 42,000 358,000 12.40% 12.54% 10,870 112,053
Minneapolis, MN 31,521,645 0 0 1,400,000 12.49% 12.34% 48,131 218,335
Omaha, NE 6,454,376 0 0 0 7.04% 6.93% 12,592 885
St. Louis, MO 23,216,158 0 0 0 19.77% 19.49% 65,551 -321,211
St. Paul, MN 11,730,218 0 0 0 13.65% 13.51% 17,400 -78,354
Midwest Total 408,747,409 42,000 42,000 4,056,100 13.55% 13.28% 1,185,884 2,015,474
WEST
Albuquerque, NM 3,191,080 0 0 0 27.00% 26.12% 27,867 68,433
Bakersfield, CA 3,305,484 59,242 72,283 0 8.74% 8.44% 66,528 69,271
Boise, ID* 4,177,362 0 252,347 466,022 8.69% 11.34% -110,776 -104,324
Denver, CO 34,423,244 205,158 317,710 75,102 11.98% 11.09% 488,325 682,512
Fresno, CA 3,288,944 0 0 0 11.10% 11.21% -3,851 -55,162
Honolulu, HI 7,164,686 0 0 0 14.22% 14.70% -34,359 -74,014
Las Vegas, NV 5,043,161 0 49,200 129,000 10.72% 10.93% -10,557 143,064
Los Angeles, CA 32,566,100 0 0 464,340 19.68% 19.95% -148,500 -285,900
Oakland, CA 17,255,313 0 0 0 11.22% 11.05% 29,456 88,244
Phoenix, AZ 20,181,280 0 0 0 21.26% 21.03% 46,734 104,182
Portland, OR 34,785,989 0 0 221,380 9.18% 9.02% 57,637 253,300
Reno, NV 3,337,018 0 0 0 14.41% 13.99% 13,981 14,289
Sacramento, CA 13,571,910 0 0 0 14.33% 14.70% -50,987 -9,566
San Diego, CA 10,172,525 0 0 320,000 19.36% 18.82% 54,760 -44,306
San Francisco, CA 89,303,236 55,756 1,250,161 4,965,035 8.28% 7.46% 781,565 2,554,546
San Jose - Silicon Valley 8,024,606 0 0 0 16.72% 15.48% 81,629 219,043
Seattle/Puget Sound, WA 55,719,584 0 0 3,830,394 10.95% 10.77% 103,372 548,575
Stockton, CA 8,221,819 0 0 0 15.66% 14.12% 127,185 169,007
Walnut Creek, CA 12,359,536 0 0 0 14.88% 16.28% -172,926 -34,192
West Total 366,092,877 320,156 1,941,701 10,471,273 12.50% 12.19% 1,347,083 4,307,002
U.S. TOTALS 1,970,480,832 1,480,018 10,570,802 29,305,629 12.48% 12.09% 8,703,014 18,544,744
(continued)
* - Q2-14 data used for Boise, Little Rock and Pittsburgh.