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CBRE Global In-Sights



Commercial Real Estate
Market Conditions in Canada


Presented by
John O’Bryan, Vice Chairman, CBRE Limited, Canada

Asieh Mansour, Head of Research, Americas and
Senior Managing Director, Global Research

October, 2011

The Global In-Sights podcasts PDF presentations are available for download on
www.cbre.com/EN/Research/pages/globalinsights.aspx.
Podcasts are also available through iTunes under podcasts and on the CBRE iPhone app.

Global Research and Consulting
Asieh Mansour

 Asieh Mansour, Ph.D.
 Head of Research, Americas and Senior
 Managing Director, Global Research


 Asieh directs Americas commercial real
 estate market analysts, advises
 Americas leadership and professionals
 on economic issues, and serves as
 spokesperson on the commercial real
 estate environment. She has more than
 20 years experience as a leading real
 estate economist in commercial real
 estate.


 asieh.mansour@cbre.com



Global Research and Consulting

CB Richard Ellis | Page 2
John O’Bryan
 John O’Bryan
 Vice Chairman, CBRE Limited, Canada

 John O’Bryan is Vice Chairman of CBRE’s
 Limited, where his primary responsibility is to
 oversee the marketing initiatives of the company.
 John has over 35 years of experience in
 brokerage and management positions. His career
 began in 1974 when he founded and managed
 the Appraisal Practice Group of Royal LePage. In
 1985 John moved into the brokerage industry
 where he was a top 10 broker for Royal Le Page
 until 1990.

 John has sold some of the highest profile assets
 in Canada and was responsible for over $8 billion
 in transaction activity. John has also completed
 over 3 million SF of leasing activity in the last
 decade.

 john.obryan@cbre.com

Global Research and Consulting

CB Richard Ellis | Page 3
It Is All About Jobs!

                                 2,000                                                                                                    200
                                                                                                                           Aug. ‘11
                                                                                                Nov. ‘10
                         2008         0                                                                                                   0




                                                                                                                                                  Canada Job Losses (000s)
U.S. Job Losses (000s)




                                 -2,000                                                                                                   -200




                                 -4,000                                                                                                   -400




                                 -6,000                                                                                        Aug. ‘11   -600




                                 -8,000                                                                                                   -800




                                -10,000                                                                                                   -1000
                                          0                            10                      20                  30             40




                                                                                    US ( L )                Canada ( R )




                         Source: Statistics Canada and Bureau of Labor Statistics

           Global Research and Consulting

           CB Richard Ellis | Page 4
Canada “An Oasis of Stability”



                            Office – 9.4%
                            Industrial – 5.3%

                                           CANADA                    Office – 8.2%
                                                                     Industrial – 7.5%



                     Office – 17.9%             Office – 20.6%
                     Industrial – 11.1%         Industrial – 12.0%                       Office – 13.4%
                                                                                         Industrial – 13.7%
                                                  USA

                                                  Office – 19.7%
                                                  Industrial – 14.9%




     Source: CBRE

Global Research and Consulting

CB Richard Ellis | Page 5
Bank Stability Makes the Difference
   Soundest Banking Systems                                                  World’s 50 Safest Banks

         •    Canada (1)                                                  • KfW; Germany (1)
         •    South Africa (2)                                            • Caisse des Depots et
         •    Panama (3)                                                    Consignations; France (2)
         •    Australia (4)                                               • Bank Nederlandse
         •    Singapore (5)                                                 Gemeenten; Netherlands (3)
                       ***                                                              ***
         •    France (27)                                                 • Royal Bank of Canada (11)
         •    Japan (72)                                                  • Toronto-Dominion Bank (13)
         •    Germany(87)                                                 • Scotiabank (18)
         •    United States (90)                                          • BMO Financial Group (30)
         •    United Kingdom (111)                                        • CIBC (31)

         Source: The World Economic Forum’s Global Competiveness Report     Source: Global Finance
                     2011-2012


Global Research and Consulting

CB Richard Ellis | Page 6
Improvement in U.S. Office Vacancy Lags Canada
                                                                                                                                                                                 Forecast
                      24



                      20



                      16
  Vacancy Rates (%)




                      12



                        8



                        4



                        0
                              1990
                                     1991
                                            1992
                                                   1993
                                                          1994
                                                                 1995
                                                                        1996
                                                                               1997
                                                                                      1998
                                                                                             1999
                                                                                                    2000
                                                                                                           2001
                                                                                                                  2002
                                                                                                                         2003
                                                                                                                                2004
                                                                                                                                       2005
                                                                                                                                              2006
                                                                                                                                                     2007
                                                                                                                                                            2008
                                                                                                                                                                   2009
                                                                                                                                                                          2010


                                                                                                                                                                                         2012
                                                                                                                                                                                  2011
                                                                           Canada                                           US


                      Source: CBRE-EA Office Outlook, Winter 2011

 Global Research and Consulting

 CB Richard Ellis | Page 7
Canada Outperforms!
                                                                                                                                                                                           Forecast
                    16%


                    14%


                    12%
Availability Rate




                    10%


                      8%


                      6%


                      4%


                      2%


                      0%
                              1990
                                        1991
                                               1992
                                                      1993
                                                             1994
                                                                    1995
                                                                           1996
                                                                                  1997
                                                                                         1998
                                                                                                1999
                                                                                                       2000
                                                                                                              2001
                                                                                                                     2002
                                                                                                                            2003
                                                                                                                                   2004
                                                                                                                                          2005
                                                                                                                                                 2006
                                                                                                                                                        2007
                                                                                                                                                               2008
                                                                                                                                                                      2009
                                                                                                                                                                             2010


                                                                                                                                                                                           2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                  2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                         2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                2015
                                                                                                                                                                                    2011
                                                                                                       Canada                      US
                    Source: CBRE-EA Canada Industrial Outlook XL, Spring 2011


            Global Research and Consulting

            CB Richard Ellis | Page 8
Retail Stability in Canada, U.S. Continues to Struggle
                                                                                                                                                 Forecast
                               14%




                               11%
 Estimated Vacancy Rate (%)




                                8%




                                6%




                                3%




                                0%




                                                                                                                                                       2011
                                           1998


                                                     1999


                                                              2000


                                                                        2001


                                                                                    2002


                                                                                           2003


                                                                                                     2004


                                                                                                            2005


                                                                                                                    2006


                                                                                                                           2007


                                                                                                                                  2008


                                                                                                                                         2009


                                                                                                                                                2010
                                                                                                  Canada           US


                              Source: CBRE EA Retail Spring Outlook 2011 and CBRE

  Global Research and Consulting

  CB Richard Ellis | Page 9
National Multi-Residential

                       $1,000                                                                                                                                                                   5.0



                        $800                                                                                                                                                                    4.0




                                                                                                                                                                                                      Vacancy Rate (%)
                        $600                                                                                                                                                                    3.0
Average Monthly Rent




                        $400                                                                                                                                                                    2.0



                        $200                                                                                                                                                                    1.0



                           $0                                                                                                                                                                   0.0




                                                                                                                                                                                     Mid-2011
                                  1990
                                         1991
                                                1992
                                                       1993
                                                              1994
                                                                     1995
                                                                            1996
                                                                                   1997
                                                                                          1998
                                                                                                 1999
                                                                                                        2000
                                                                                                               2001
                                                                                                                      2002
                                                                                                                             2003
                                                                                                                                    2004
                                                                                                                                           2005
                                                                                                                                                  2006
                                                                                                                                                         2007
                                                                                                                                                                2008
                                                                                                                                                                       2009
                                                                                                                                                                              2010
                                                                               Average Rent                                         Vacancy

                       Source: CBRE, CMHC

   Global Research and Consulting

   CB Richard Ellis | Page 10
Who Bought in 2011 YTD? (Incl Hotel & ICI)

                                                                   Multi-
 Buyers                             Office   Industrial   Retail            ICI-Land   Hotel    Total
                                                                   Res


 Private/Syndicates 24.8%                    50.8%        36.6%    58.8%    95.3%      100.0%   43.8%


 Foreign                             5.8%     1.7%        0.0%     6.9%      0.0%      0.0%     2.8%


 Pension Fund                        3.2%     3.1%        25.4%    0.0%      0.0%      0.0%     10.0%


 Institutions                        6.9%     9.5%        1.5%     0.0%      1.9%      0.0%     4.2%


 REITs/REOCs                        56.5%    31.3%        36.6%    34.3%     1.6%      0.0%     37.7%


 Private Equity                      2.9%     3.7%        0.0%     0.0%      1.2%      0.0%     1.5%



      Source: CBRE Limited/RealNet Canada

Global Research and Consulting

CB Richard Ellis | Page 11
Cap Rates Hit 2007 Levels – Going Lower?

     11%



     10%



      9%



      8%



      7%



      6%



      5%
                 2000        2001     2002    2003     2004     2005      2006    2007    2008    2009    2010      1Q11    2Q11


                             Office - CBD A          Industrial - A & B          Retail - Neighbourhood          Multi-Res - B



     Source: CBRE

Global Research and Consulting

CB Richard Ellis | Page 12
Metro Toronto Convention Centre Complex

 $237.4 Million
  1.95M SF Development on 7.41 Acres


  Incorporates:
   • 225, 255& 277 Front Street West
   • 586 Room InterContinental Hotel
   • 265,000 SF Class A Office Tower
   • 1,200 Parking Stall

  Vendor: Canada Lands CLC Limited


  Purchaser: Oxford Properties Group


  Deal Date: September 14, 2011




Global Research and Consulting

CB Richard Ellis | Page 13
Canadian Investment Transactions ($B)


Property
                               2004         2005    2006    2007    2008    2009    2010    1H11
Type


Office                         $4.1         $5.4    $4.4    $10.3   $6.0    $2.5    $3.7    $2.4


Industrial                     $3.4         $4.1    $7.2    $5.8    $4.4    $2.7    $5.7    $2.0


Retail                         $4.0         $4.1    $4.0    $4.4    $3.2    $2.4    $3.7    $3.0


Multi-Res                      $2.9         $3.0    $3.5    $4.4    $3.2    $2.4    $2.9    $1.7


Land                           $2.5         $2.4    $3.9    $4.6    $4.0    $2.6    $2.7    $1.2


Hotel                          $0.3         $0.8    $1.3    $2.6    $0.3    $0.2    $0.2    $0.1


Total                          $17.3        $19.8   $24.2   $32.2   $21.1   $12.7   $18.9   $10.3

      Source: CBRE Limited/RealNet Canada

 Global Research and Consulting

 CB Richard Ellis | Page 14
Thank You
CBRE Global In-Sights

The Global In-Sights podcasts and PDF presentations are available for
download on www.cbre.com/EN/Research/pages/globalinsights.aspx.
Podcasts are also available through iTunes under podcasts and on the
CBRE iPhone app.


To register to receive Global In-Sights announcements, please go to
http://www.cbre.com/EN/Research/pages/globalinsights.aspx




Asieh Mansour
Head of Research, Americas and Senior Managing Director, Global Research
asieh.mansour@cbre.com


CBRE
© 2011 CBRE, Inc. We obtained the information contained in this presentation from sources we believe to be reliable. However, we
have not verified its accuracy and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is submitted subject to the possibility of
errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other conditions, prior sale, lease or financing, or withdrawal without notice. We include
projections, opinions, assumptions or estimates for example only, and they may not represent current or future performance of the
property. You and your tax and legal advisors should conduct your own investigation of the property and transaction.




Global Research and Consulting
CBRE Global In-Sights



Commercial Real Estate
Market Conditions in Canada


Presented by
John O’Bryan, Vice Chairman, CBRE Limited, Canada

Asieh Mansour, Head of Research, Americas and
Senior Managing Director, Global Research

October, 2011

The Global In-Sights podcasts PDF presentations are available for download on
www.cbre.com/EN/Research/pages/globalinsights.aspx.
Podcasts are also available through iTunes under podcasts and on the CBRE iPhone app.

Global Research and Consulting

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CBRE - m

  • 1. CBRE Global In-Sights Commercial Real Estate Market Conditions in Canada Presented by John O’Bryan, Vice Chairman, CBRE Limited, Canada Asieh Mansour, Head of Research, Americas and Senior Managing Director, Global Research October, 2011 The Global In-Sights podcasts PDF presentations are available for download on www.cbre.com/EN/Research/pages/globalinsights.aspx. Podcasts are also available through iTunes under podcasts and on the CBRE iPhone app. Global Research and Consulting
  • 2. Asieh Mansour Asieh Mansour, Ph.D. Head of Research, Americas and Senior Managing Director, Global Research Asieh directs Americas commercial real estate market analysts, advises Americas leadership and professionals on economic issues, and serves as spokesperson on the commercial real estate environment. She has more than 20 years experience as a leading real estate economist in commercial real estate. asieh.mansour@cbre.com Global Research and Consulting CB Richard Ellis | Page 2
  • 3. John O’Bryan John O’Bryan Vice Chairman, CBRE Limited, Canada John O’Bryan is Vice Chairman of CBRE’s Limited, where his primary responsibility is to oversee the marketing initiatives of the company. John has over 35 years of experience in brokerage and management positions. His career began in 1974 when he founded and managed the Appraisal Practice Group of Royal LePage. In 1985 John moved into the brokerage industry where he was a top 10 broker for Royal Le Page until 1990. John has sold some of the highest profile assets in Canada and was responsible for over $8 billion in transaction activity. John has also completed over 3 million SF of leasing activity in the last decade. john.obryan@cbre.com Global Research and Consulting CB Richard Ellis | Page 3
  • 4. It Is All About Jobs! 2,000 200 Aug. ‘11 Nov. ‘10 2008 0 0 Canada Job Losses (000s) U.S. Job Losses (000s) -2,000 -200 -4,000 -400 -6,000 Aug. ‘11 -600 -8,000 -800 -10,000 -1000 0 10 20 30 40 US ( L ) Canada ( R ) Source: Statistics Canada and Bureau of Labor Statistics Global Research and Consulting CB Richard Ellis | Page 4
  • 5. Canada “An Oasis of Stability” Office – 9.4% Industrial – 5.3% CANADA Office – 8.2% Industrial – 7.5% Office – 17.9% Office – 20.6% Industrial – 11.1% Industrial – 12.0% Office – 13.4% Industrial – 13.7% USA Office – 19.7% Industrial – 14.9% Source: CBRE Global Research and Consulting CB Richard Ellis | Page 5
  • 6. Bank Stability Makes the Difference Soundest Banking Systems World’s 50 Safest Banks • Canada (1) • KfW; Germany (1) • South Africa (2) • Caisse des Depots et • Panama (3) Consignations; France (2) • Australia (4) • Bank Nederlandse • Singapore (5) Gemeenten; Netherlands (3) *** *** • France (27) • Royal Bank of Canada (11) • Japan (72) • Toronto-Dominion Bank (13) • Germany(87) • Scotiabank (18) • United States (90) • BMO Financial Group (30) • United Kingdom (111) • CIBC (31) Source: The World Economic Forum’s Global Competiveness Report Source: Global Finance 2011-2012 Global Research and Consulting CB Richard Ellis | Page 6
  • 7. Improvement in U.S. Office Vacancy Lags Canada Forecast 24 20 16 Vacancy Rates (%) 12 8 4 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2011 Canada US Source: CBRE-EA Office Outlook, Winter 2011 Global Research and Consulting CB Richard Ellis | Page 7
  • 8. Canada Outperforms! Forecast 16% 14% 12% Availability Rate 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 Canada US Source: CBRE-EA Canada Industrial Outlook XL, Spring 2011 Global Research and Consulting CB Richard Ellis | Page 8
  • 9. Retail Stability in Canada, U.S. Continues to Struggle Forecast 14% 11% Estimated Vacancy Rate (%) 8% 6% 3% 0% 2011 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Canada US Source: CBRE EA Retail Spring Outlook 2011 and CBRE Global Research and Consulting CB Richard Ellis | Page 9
  • 10. National Multi-Residential $1,000 5.0 $800 4.0 Vacancy Rate (%) $600 3.0 Average Monthly Rent $400 2.0 $200 1.0 $0 0.0 Mid-2011 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Average Rent Vacancy Source: CBRE, CMHC Global Research and Consulting CB Richard Ellis | Page 10
  • 11. Who Bought in 2011 YTD? (Incl Hotel & ICI) Multi- Buyers Office Industrial Retail ICI-Land Hotel Total Res Private/Syndicates 24.8% 50.8% 36.6% 58.8% 95.3% 100.0% 43.8% Foreign 5.8% 1.7% 0.0% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% Pension Fund 3.2% 3.1% 25.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% Institutions 6.9% 9.5% 1.5% 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 4.2% REITs/REOCs 56.5% 31.3% 36.6% 34.3% 1.6% 0.0% 37.7% Private Equity 2.9% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 1.5% Source: CBRE Limited/RealNet Canada Global Research and Consulting CB Richard Ellis | Page 11
  • 12. Cap Rates Hit 2007 Levels – Going Lower? 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1Q11 2Q11 Office - CBD A Industrial - A & B Retail - Neighbourhood Multi-Res - B Source: CBRE Global Research and Consulting CB Richard Ellis | Page 12
  • 13. Metro Toronto Convention Centre Complex $237.4 Million  1.95M SF Development on 7.41 Acres  Incorporates: • 225, 255& 277 Front Street West • 586 Room InterContinental Hotel • 265,000 SF Class A Office Tower • 1,200 Parking Stall  Vendor: Canada Lands CLC Limited  Purchaser: Oxford Properties Group  Deal Date: September 14, 2011 Global Research and Consulting CB Richard Ellis | Page 13
  • 14. Canadian Investment Transactions ($B) Property 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1H11 Type Office $4.1 $5.4 $4.4 $10.3 $6.0 $2.5 $3.7 $2.4 Industrial $3.4 $4.1 $7.2 $5.8 $4.4 $2.7 $5.7 $2.0 Retail $4.0 $4.1 $4.0 $4.4 $3.2 $2.4 $3.7 $3.0 Multi-Res $2.9 $3.0 $3.5 $4.4 $3.2 $2.4 $2.9 $1.7 Land $2.5 $2.4 $3.9 $4.6 $4.0 $2.6 $2.7 $1.2 Hotel $0.3 $0.8 $1.3 $2.6 $0.3 $0.2 $0.2 $0.1 Total $17.3 $19.8 $24.2 $32.2 $21.1 $12.7 $18.9 $10.3 Source: CBRE Limited/RealNet Canada Global Research and Consulting CB Richard Ellis | Page 14
  • 15. Thank You CBRE Global In-Sights The Global In-Sights podcasts and PDF presentations are available for download on www.cbre.com/EN/Research/pages/globalinsights.aspx. Podcasts are also available through iTunes under podcasts and on the CBRE iPhone app. To register to receive Global In-Sights announcements, please go to http://www.cbre.com/EN/Research/pages/globalinsights.aspx Asieh Mansour Head of Research, Americas and Senior Managing Director, Global Research asieh.mansour@cbre.com CBRE © 2011 CBRE, Inc. We obtained the information contained in this presentation from sources we believe to be reliable. However, we have not verified its accuracy and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is submitted subject to the possibility of errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other conditions, prior sale, lease or financing, or withdrawal without notice. We include projections, opinions, assumptions or estimates for example only, and they may not represent current or future performance of the property. You and your tax and legal advisors should conduct your own investigation of the property and transaction. Global Research and Consulting
  • 16. CBRE Global In-Sights Commercial Real Estate Market Conditions in Canada Presented by John O’Bryan, Vice Chairman, CBRE Limited, Canada Asieh Mansour, Head of Research, Americas and Senior Managing Director, Global Research October, 2011 The Global In-Sights podcasts PDF presentations are available for download on www.cbre.com/EN/Research/pages/globalinsights.aspx. Podcasts are also available through iTunes under podcasts and on the CBRE iPhone app. Global Research and Consulting