08448380779 Call Girls In Diplomatic Enclave Women Seeking Men
Seasonal forecasting
1. CCAA LEARNING PAPER
Edited by:
Gina Ziervogel,
Alfred Opere
Contributing
authors:
Ignitius Chagonda
Jacob Churi
Amadou Dieye
Integrating meteorological and
Keziya Magawa, a
Boris Houenou
farmer with Nazareti
Womens’ Group, tends
Said Hounkponou
maize in a field school in
Chibelela, Tanzania.
indigenous knowledge-based Eric Kisiangani
Evans Kituyi
Photo: IDRC/ F. Nzema seasonal climate forecasts for Cromwel Lukorito
Ayub Macharia
the agricultural sector
Henry Mahoo
Amos Majule
Paul Mapfumo
Florence
Lessons from participatory action Mtambanengwe
Francis Mugabe
research in sub-Saharan Africa Laban Ogallo
Gilbert Ouma
Amadou Sall
Greno Wanda
Climate Change Adaptation in Africa program 01
4. CCAA Learning Paper
Acronyms
CCAA Climate Change Adaptation in Africa
CSE Centre de suivi écologique
GHA Greater Horn of Africa
ICPAC IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre
IDID Initiatives pour un développement intégré durable
IGAD Intergovernmental Authority on Development
IKF indigenous knowledge-based seasonal forecast
IRA Institute of Resource Assessment (University of Dar es Salaam)
KMD Kenya Meteorological Department
MSU Midland State University (Zimbabwe)
PAR participatory action research
SCF seasonal climate forecasts developed by national meteorological services
SUA Sokoine University of Agriculture (Tanzania)
TMA Tanzania Meteorological Agency
iii Climate Change Adaptation in Africa program
5. Introduction
Extreme climatic events, such as
droughts and floods, as well as chang-
es in the mean climate, have a direct
effect on crops and livestock and, thus,
people’s livelihoods. Food security is at
risk, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa
where local production remains largely
rain-fed. Given that climate variability
is likely to increase with increasing Farmers walk
greenhouse gas emissions, it is more through flooded
important than ever to understand rice fields in
how this variability can be managed to Malawi.
reduce the negative consequences.
Photo courtesy of
The impact is already significant. In Gina Ziervogel
Malawi, for example, as a result of the maximize opportunities during favour-
2002 drought, approximately 5 million able conditions. However, exploring the
people needed emergency food aid, synergies between these two sources
which took a long time to be delivered. of climate information is a challenge.
A similar situation occurred in Niger It requires not only an understanding
in 2004–2005 when approximately 2.5 of the current uptake of the informa-
million people — or a fifth of the popu- tion, but also mechanisms and policies
lation — was in need of food rations to support improvements in generat- Climate information can
(UNDP 2007). In 2009, approximately ing, disseminating, and using climate help farmers and pastoralists
3.8 million people in Kenya required information.
manage their crops and
food aid because of the prolonged
drought (FEWS Net 2010). In 2006, sub-
SCFs are generated by national meteo- livestock to minimize risks
rological and hydrological services us- and maximize opportunities.
Saharan Africa accounted for 13% of
ing models and empirical data. These
the world’s population and 25% of the
specialized, scientific institutions
undernourished people in the develop-
generate weather and climate-related
ing world (FAO 2006).
products under guidelines set by the
Reducing the impact of climate vari- World Meteorological Organization.
ability and change on food produc- Their work is supplemented by other
tion and livelihoods may be achieved, regional and international climate
in part, by using available climate centres including the African Centre
information to anticipate and manage of Meteorological Applications for
annual climate-related risks (Tarhule Development, the Centre Régional de
2005; Washington et al. 2006). Climate Formation et d’Application en Agromé-
information is available from two main téorologie et Hydrologie Opérationelle
sources: meteorological seasonal (AGRHYMET), IGAD Climate Predic-
climate forecasts (SCFs) and indig- tion and Applications Centre (ICPAC),
enous knowledge-based seasonal the Climate Systems Analysis Group
forecasts (IKFs). This information can (University of Cape Town), the United
help farmers and pastoralists manage Kingdom Meteorological Office, the
their crops and livestock to minimize National Oceanic and Atmospheric
risks during unfavourable seasons and Administration, and others.
Climate Change Adaptation in Africa program 1
6. Producing useful
forecasts requires a deep
understanding of the needs
of specific user groups and
the benefits and challenges
IKFs, on the other farmers use SCFs, but the temporal and spatial scale of
forecasts may present to
hand, are produced these is not precise enough; thus, they could benefit from
these users. locally by people who the local details added by IKFs. It is, therefore, important
live in the area for that policymakers, practitioners, and forecasters (both
which the prediction from meteorological services and indigenous groups)
is made. They are often based on generations of experience target existing gaps and take advantage of opportunities if
and include both biophysical and mystical indicators. they are to support farmers and pastoralists in managing
climate risk.
Although for years many communities have successfully
relied on indigenous forecasting methods in planning The Climate Change Adaptation in Africa (CCAA) program,
agricultural activities, SCFs have become increasingly funded by the International Development Research
available in many parts of Africa over recent decades Centre (Canada) and the Department for International
(O’Brien and Vogel 2003; Patt et al. 2007; Roncoli et al. Development (United Kingdom), has supported a number
2009). However, despite significant advances in the science of projects that have investigated how SCFs might be better
of seasonal forecasting and increased awareness of these integrated into agricultural and pastoral decision-making
forecasts, most African countries have not experienced to strengthen livelihoods and food security. Through these
significant benefits from using this information to reduce projects, it has become clear that IKFs, which have been
climate impacts. A key challenge has been access to and used by communities for decades, provide information that
ability to respond to meteorological climate information, is complementary to the SCFs. Some projects set out to
by vulnerable groups as well as institutions and agencies investigate links between the two information sources at the
charged with managing the impacts of climate variability. outset, while others explored them when they emerged as
an important focus in supporting increased uptake of SCF
Producing useful forecasts requires a deep understanding
information.
of the characteristics and needs of specific user groups
(Ziervogel 2004) as well as a clear view of the benefits and In this paper, we seek to answer two questions. First,
challenges they present to these users. Studies carried how can farmers’ and pastoralists’ needs be met by the
out in West Africa (Roncoli et al. 2009) and southern Africa dissemination and application of meteorological information
(Ziervogel and Calder 2003; Ziervogel et al. 2006) show and, second, how can SCFs complement indigenous
limited adoption of SCFs by farmers because of serious knowledge about the climate.
resource limitations (lack of land, labour, inputs, credit,
Although much research has been done over the past two
and market access) and limited exposure to the use of
decades on the challenges of and opportunities for applying
such forecasts. It is, therefore, important that the needs
SCFs, much of it has been theoretical (Patt and Gwata 2002;
and concerns of users, in particular vulnerable groups,
Archer 2003; Ziervogel et al. 2006). The CCAA projects
inform the content and dissemination of forecasts. The
provide a new insight, as they are based on participatory
fact that many small-scale farmers are unable to take
action research (PAR) methods, which involve researchers
advantage of forecasts due to resource constraints means
working with
that socioeconomic and political needs as well as cultural
farmers,
contexts must be addressed in adaptation planning, along
extension officers,
with climate information needs.
meteorologists, CCAA projects provide new
Combining meteorological and indigenous seasonal and policymakers
insight, as they involve
forecasting is one way to deal with the challenges faced to explore the
in the development, communication, and use of climate realities of
researchers working with
information. Many farmers already use indigenous forecasts disseminating farmers, extension officers,
in their farm-level decisions and may only need certain SCFs on the meteorologists, and policymakers
information, such as total rainfall expected in the season, ground. The to explore the realities of
to complement what they already have. Similarly, some objective of this disseminating forecasts.
2 Climate Change Adaptation in Africa program
7. CCAA Learning Paper
report is to document the process and lessons learned Context
during the projects with respect to using, applying, and
Use of climate information by agricultural and pastoral
integrating SCFs and IKFs. The individual project teams also
communities: As small-scale farmers in sub-Saharan
intend to analyze in more detail the implications of their
Africa face increasingly variable rainfall, in terms of the
specific research projects for practice and policy.
start and end of season and the amount and distribution
We begin by documenting lessons learned from eight PAR of rainfall, the scientific community hopes that seasonal
projects on the use of SCFs and their integration with IKFs, climate information can help them prepare and, therefore,
as captured in a learning forum hosted by the CCAA program reduce the negative impacts of climate variability. Increased
in March 2010 (see “About CCAA Learning Papers” on p.i). attention has also been paid to indigenous knowledge that
We then focus on the current availability of seasonal draws on local understanding of the environment to inform
forecasts and indigenous knowledge before exploring livelihood strategies. It may be possible to increase food
how the two types of information have been integrated, as security if these combined forecasts can help improve
well as the platforms for disseminating this information agricultural yields. Through technical and management
and the challenges of applying it.
We conclude by suggesting ways to
strengthen capacity to manage climate
variability among farmers, pastoralists, CCAA projects that contributed knowledge to the learning forum
researchers, policymakers, and
providers of climate information.
Project title and lead institution Short form in text
The selected PAR projects and their
Strengthening the Capacity to Adapt to Climate Benin (IDID)
lead institutions are listed here.
Change in Rural Benin, Initiatives pour un développement
Participants in these projects were
intégré durable
brought together for a week of learning
that provided an opportunity to share Infoclim: Platform for Helping Vulnerable Communities InfoClim (CSE)
experiences and insights developed Adapt to Climate Change in Senegal, Centre de suivi
over the previous three years of the écologique
projects’ lifespans.
Integrating Indigenous Knowledge in Climate Risk IK in Western
Also invited to take part in the Management to Support Community Based Adaptation Kenya (ICPAC)
discussions were experts from three in Western Kenya, ICPAC
institutions — the Niamey-based
Managing Risk, Reducing Vulnerability and Enhancing Managing Risk in
African Centre of Meteorological
Productivity under a Changing Climate in the Greater the GHA (SUA)
Applications for Development,
Horn of Africa, Sokoine University of Agriculture
the Hadley Centre in the United
Kingdom, and the Nairobi-based Resilience and the African Smallholder : Enhancing the African
ICPAC — that are involved in the Capacity of Communities to Adapt to Climate Change in Smallholders
production and dissemination of Seven African Countries, University of Zimbabwe (U. of Zimbabwe)
meteorological information. These
institutions represented one of the Building Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change in Zambia Zambia and
target audiences of the forum’s output. and Zimbabwe, Midlands State University, Zimbabwe Zimbabwe (MSU)
Several other participants from a wide Strengthening Local Agricultural Innovation Systems in Tanzania and
range of backgrounds, including the Tanzania and Malawi, Institute of Resource Assessment, Malawi (IRA)
humanitarian aid and development University of Dar es Salaam
community, government and academia,
were also in attendance as observers. Enhancing Adaptation to Climate Change among Pastoralist
Pastoralists in Northern Kenya, Practical Action Adaptation
(Practical Action)
Climate Change Adaptation in Africa program 3
8. CCAA Learning Paper
It is often hard for farmers
and others, including chiefs
and extension officers, to
interpret probability-based
forecasts and know how to
adjustments, farmers might be able to take advantage of In some places,
good seasons and minimize risks during less favourable
respond to them. targeted research
ones. The PAR projects explored these opportunities in their has helped farmers
various regional contexts. understand the
nature of the information and how it might be used (Patt and
Although gains have been made in bringing together users
Gwata 2002; Roncoli et al. 2002; Ziervogel 2004; Patt et al. 2005;
and suppliers of climate information, numerous challenges
Roncoli 2007). Research has also shown that users like to have
remain associated with its use. Among farmers, there is
interaction with those knowledgeable about the forecast before
often confusion over terminology (e.g., “seasonal” and
making decisions about how to use it (Ziervogel 2004).
“weather” forecasts used interchangeably and what is meant
by below and above normal rainfall). In some cases, it is
not clear what information is of most use. The most widely
available information from the seasonal forecast is total
Currently available climate information
seasonal rainfall. However, users are often interested in the
and farmers’ views of it
onset, cessation, and intra-seasonal variations to support Seasonal climate forecasts: The SCFs produced by the
decisions about what crops to plant, when to plant, which meteorological services are disseminated at the national
technologies to use, and when to harvest. level in every country. The country is usually divided
into regions where different seasonal rainfall totals are
Rationale for exploring the integration of meteorological
expected. The information about expected rainfall is given in
and indigenous forecasts: Meteorological services have
probabilities, e.g., 40% chance of above-normal rainfall, 30%
been producing SCFs for the last few decades, and these
chance of normal, and 30% chance of below-normal rainfall.
are available in most countries in Africa (O’Brien and Vogel
According to project teams in Zambia, Zimbabwe, Tanzania,
2003; Washington et al. 2006; Patt et al. 2007). However,
and Kenya, it is often hard for farmers and others, including
their uptake by small-scale farmers and pastoralists has
chiefs and extension officers, to interpret these probabilities
been limited (Archer 2003; Luseno et al. 2003; Ziervogel et
and know how to respond to them.
al. 2006). The research community hopes that SCFs can be
better used to inform decisions on crop types, planting date, There is also concern because the forecasts cover too
and the need for measures to safeguard yields (Patt and large an area. In eastern Zimbabwe, for example, project
Gwata 2002; Ziervogel 2004; Patt et al. 2005). participants wanted to minimize their losses associated
Table 1: Comparison of IKF and SCF methods
IKFs SCFs
Use biophysical indicators of the environment as Use weather and climate models of measurable meteoro-
well as spiritual methods logical data
Forecast methods are seldom documented Forecast methods are more developed and documented
Up-scaling and down-scaling are usually complex Up-scaling and down-scaling are relatively simple
Indicators are mostly observed Indicators are usually measurable
Application of forecast output is less developed Application of forecast output is more developed
Communication is usually oral Communication is usually written
Explanation is based on spiritual and social values Explanation is theoretical
Taught by observation and experience Taught through lectures and readings
4 Climate Change Adaptation in Africa program
9. 33
I 33
33
with climatic variation. Farmers might
want to sell their livestock before
an imminent drought and restock
when conditions become favourable.
Alternatively, they might move their
livestock to localities where more 45
favourable conditions are expected II 35
and where relatives or friends could 20
keep the cattle in trust until conditions
improve in their home range. When
presented with the SCF, they said June to August 2010
the information covered areas that Consensus Climate 20
Outlook for the Greater 45 III
were too large for them to have local
Horn of Africa. 35
relevance and inform their decisions.
Image courtesy of ICPAC
They also thought that the short-
term weather forecasts on radio and Key
television were for cities and holiday Figures on the map 33
resorts and not for farm areas, because represent percentage IV 33
probability of 33
city names were given on the weather
Above Normal
map as reference points. This example A
highlights the fact that communities’ B Near Normal
C Below Normal
requests for information are different
from what is provided by the national
forecasters. Table 1 compares IKFs and
scientific methods of forecasting.
Although national climate information In Benin, research found that
is often disseminated by radio, the radio broadcasts of climate
project in Benin found that this method information are only useful
is only useful if broadcasts occur at if they occur at times when
times when farmers can listen, which farmers can listen, which
vary according to season. They have
vary according to season.
learned that when farmers are tilling,
the broadcast should be in the evening,
but when farmers are waiting for the
why. Farmers would like forecasts at
rains to start, the broadcast can be in
least a month in advance of the short
the afternoon. The project team also
(October–December) and long (March–
found that local discussion forums
May) rainy seasons. Sometimes they
facilitated by climate information
are received a few weeks before the
providers and local stakeholders
season starts, by which time farmers
can improve follow-up and uptake
have already made key decisions about
of information heard on the radio.
their crops — types of seeds, when to
However, it is important to first
plant — and have purchased inputs,
assess community access to radio.
such as fertilizer. For this reason,
A number of projects found that SCFs in Same district, Tanzania, IKFs are
are not received when farmers most being used to complement SCFs. IKFs
need them, although it was not clear are available early enough to give
Climate Change Adaptation in Africa program 5
10. farmers time to prepare. A key lesson for meteorological However, tailoring of climate information will depend on
departments is that timeliness of information dissemination disseminators and users of the information ensuring that
is critical to farmer uptake. their preferences are communicated to the meteorological
services.
In Same district, farmers used to struggle to interpret SCFs
from the Tanzania Meteorological Agency (TMA). But now, Another shortcoming of the current national-level seasonal
as a result of the Managing Risk in the GHA (SUA) project, climate information is that it does not provide advice on
a team has been established to interpret and disseminate interventions. Some meteorological services integrate
the forecast, with the result that people are becoming more the forecast with agricultural advice, producing an agro-
interested. meteorology bulletin with suggestions on what agricultural
strategies might be most appropriate given the expected
In general, distribution of SCF information is still too
rainfall. However, project participants felt that this type of
supply driven at the national level. Participants felt that
information remains too broad to be useful: the information
this reflects a lack of understanding of specific user needs.
Table 2: Comparison of IKFs, SCFs, and an integrated forecast for selected seasons and locations in Kenya and Tanzania
Season and IKF summary report SCF report Integrated report Performance of
location and indicators integrated forecast
MAM 2010 Frogs making a lot of noise, Seasonal rainfall The IKFs and TMA Reported as “very
Same, Tanzania ants moving and spreading will be normal. forecasts indicate good” meaning
(Managing Risk across roads, signifying that The main indica- normal rains, expect- almost all predicted
in the GHA the Masika (rainy) season is tors include sea ed to decrease as the events came
project site) about to start. IKF indicators surface tem- season progresses. to pass.
show that rains during the peratures of the
Masika season will decrease Indian and Pacific
especially in May. Oceans and wind
strength.
SOND 2009 Stars and bubbles in water August to The Nganyi forecast Reported as “very
Nganyi pots in shrines suggest rains September: provided a more good” meaning
community will start in the 2nd week of low-intensity rain- detailed version of almost all predicted
(IK in Western August. Mid-August to end of fall. October to the KMD forecast events for the season
Kenya projects) September: light rain. October November: more and was therefore came to pass.
to early December: increased intense rainfall. adopted as follows:
rainfall intensity. 2nd week of Rains to continue
2nd week August:
December to mid-January: into January 2010.
onset of the rainy
light rain.
Good overall season. Mid-August
Rains will be accompanied by distribution of to end of September:
heavy storms, but not as severe rain throughout light rains. October
as those in the previous season the season with to early December:
(March–May 2009). Early rains no extended dry increased rainfall
will be polluted. The overall spells. There will intensity. 2nd week
distribution of rains over the be heavy storms December to mid-
season will be good. and high winds. January 2010: light
rains.
6 Climate Change Adaptation in Africa program
11. CCAA Learning Paper
The integration of indigenous
knowledge is very important
as it is highly localized, and
often comes with practical
advice on measures to
is insufficiently to reduce the impact of variable climate (UNEP 2007).
take in light of the forecast downscaled to Observing stars, wind patterns, cloud movement, and the
conditions. provide advice at position of the moon and sun allows weather and climate
the local level, and forecasts to be made. Knowledge also exists about patterns
farmers in different parts of a district may need to respond in the occurrence of local natural hazards. People know that
differently because of unique local environmental conditions. they have to plan to be able to cope with natural disasters
The integration of indigenous knowledge is very important in and various ways are sought to recover from hazards. Such
this process, as it is highly localized, and often comes with knowledge is not properly documented, but depends on oral
practical advice on measures to take in light of the forecast education by elders. Accumulated indigenous knowledge is
conditions. Using local languages and terminology familiar passed from one generation to the next through traditional
to farmers is also essential to the usability of forecast socialization processes.
information, and too often overlooked in the provision
Because of the oral nature of indigenous knowledge,
of SCFs.
little has been published on the process of integrating it
Learning forum participants observed that improvements into environmental conservation, management of natural
in infrastructure and capacity building among staff at local disasters, or indicators of and responses to climate
meteorological stations might help address some of the variability. Another challenge is maintaining this information
challenges around producing useful forecasts and increase base in the face of the demise of older generations and
coverage. In Tanzania, the meteorological services have been the current wider scale of interactions of communities
decentralized, and participants felt that this could support with other cultures. It is important to record this precious
direct interaction and engagement with communities. knowledge before it becomes “extinct” (Ocholla-Ayayo 2003).
Indigenous knowledge about climate: Traditionally, farmers Various indicators and predictors (environmental, biological,
have based their decisions about crop and irrigation cycles and traditional belief) are commonly used by farmers
on indigenous knowledge of weather and climate patterns. to support farm decisions and adaptive measures. This
This knowledge has been gained through many decades of knowledge is based on locally defined conditions and needs
experience and has been passed down through generations. and is dynamic and nurtured by observation. The experience
The knowledge is also adapted to local conditions and needs. of men and women farmers is incorporated into the
indicators, modifying them slightly to meet current needs
One of the reasons indigenous knowledge plays a big role
and situations. As an example, Table 2 gives the forecasts
in farmers’ decisions is because traditional societies’
and indicators used by the IK in Western Kenya (ICPAC)
livelihoods are closely intertwined with nature (UNEP
project and the Tanzania component of the Managing Risk in
2007). Their survival has depended on the sustainability
the GHA (SUA) project.
of resources in their local environment, thus, they have
conserved these resources by adhering to strict traditional In the Zambia and Zimbabwe (MSU) project, the key
laws — including taboos and heavy penalties — under indigenous knowledge indicators used for weather
the guidance of elders (DMCN 2004). Particular plant and and climate forecasting included fruiting patterns, the
animal species were considered sacred or associated with emergence of leaves and weeds, and wind movement. North
bad omens that hindered people from overexploiting them. to south winds are called male winds, while south to north
Some species were associated with shrines and water are female winds. When either is strong, rainfall is expected.
sources protected by effective clan laws. Plants or animals The observation of clear cloudless days has also been linked
that provided medicine and food became the subject of strict to some meteorological processes in this area.
rules and practices to ensure their continuing availability
Western scientists have tended to reject the traditional
(Ocholla-Ayayo 1976).
knowledge of local communities as primitive, non-
Indigenous communities recognize that to be able to live quantitative, employing non-conventional methods, and
with natural hazards, they must monitor environmental unscientific. However, indigenous knowledge systems have
conditions, including the weather and climate, to make more recently attracted the attention of many people in both
relevant predictions and advise on appropriate actions developed and developing countries, and the importance
Climate Change Adaptation in Africa program 7
12. has reduced farmers’ confidence in
traditional knowledge and has led them
to seek out both seasonal and short-
term weather forecasts. If SCFs can
capture the increasingly variable climate,
they may be able to provide important
information that can create a framework
for developing strategies for responding
and adapting to climate change.
Nganyi IK forecasters Because indigenous knowledge has
explain the use of some been used for generations and is part
of the tools they use
of many rural communities’ way of
in interpreting natural
indicators.
life, it makes sense to explore the role
In Zambia and Zimbabwe, of IKFs in relation to SCFs. This is
Photo: IDRC and DFID/ indigenous knowledge particularly important if SCFs are seen
T. Omondi
indicators included fruiting as external knowledge, too general,
patterns, the emergence of and of questionable relevance to small-
leaves and weeds, and wind scale farmers and pastoralists. It is a
movement. challenge for disseminators to package
the two information types; however,
those involved in the learning forum
supported an approach that does not
prioritize either type of information, but
of this information is beginning to be
rather finds ways to use both.
recognized. Practitioners are starting
to realize the importance of recognizing One of the projects, implemented
and working with indigenous by ICPAC working with the Nganyi
knowledge that builds on generations community in western Kenya, has
of experience (Orlove et al. 2010) to experience in integrating these two
best support the adaptive capacity and domains of climate knowledge (Box 2).
strategies of rural communities. Despite the project’s achievements,
challenges still centre on building
trust and acceptance of the SCFs
Integration of IKFs and SCFs
by the community, sourcing and
It is clear that IKFs and SCFs both authenticating information based on
have strengths and weaknesses. A indigenous knowledge, and acquiring
major challenge is how to bring them meteorological data within the project
together in a way that respects their area to cross-validate SCFs and
different values and builds on their IKFs. There is also an urgent need to
strengths. This is set against a backdrop integrate indigenous risk-reduction
of a changing climate, which means strategies with SCFs to provide local
that indigenous knowledge indicators communities with new tools for coping
might not be as reliable as they were with the current climate extremes and
in the past. Some projects have noted adapting for future climate changes
that increasing variability in climate and greater impacts.
8 Climate Change Adaptation in Africa program
13. CCAA Learning Paper
Integration of IKFs and SCFs in the IK in Western Kenya project
Twice a year, the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications during the season. An evaluation of the first season’s
Centre (ICPAC) convenes a Climate Outlook Forum for forecast, validated by information from the community at the
the Greater Horn of Africa which produces a consensus dissemination workshop, revealed surprisingly good results
seasonal forecast from modern-day climate scientists. The — the community concurred that the forecast was accurate.
forecast is subsequently downscaled for Kenya by Kenya
Over the life of the project, five seasonal forecasts went
Meteorological Department (KMD). In September 2008,
through a similar “bridging” process, bringing together
through a CCAA-supported project focusing on IK in Western
meteorologically-based climate outlooks for the region,
Kenya, ICPAC brought meteorologists and Nganyi indigenous
with the more locally specific forecasts produced by the
knowledge forecasters together to produce a further
Nganyi. These took place in September 2008, March 2009,
downscaled consensus forecast for the project area. The
September 2009, March 2010 and September 2010.
Nganyi clan is locally renowned for its forecasting abilities.
For generations, family members have handed down A key outcome expected of the project is increased use of
their skill and knowledge in interpreting local indicators, climate information by the community in planning their
including plant and animal behaviour, night sky phenomena activities, along with increased mutual trust and information
and a host of other signs that many consider mystical rather exchange between climate scientists and those with
than scientific. indigenous knowledge. In addition, the project will be able to
document the history and practices of the Nganyi community
The method for arriving at a consensus began with
and outline the structure of a sustainable disaster risk
presentation of the meteorological forecasts for the region
management curriculum incorporating indigenous
and the consensus indigenous forecast (11 groups from
knowledge. In July 2010, KMD committed resources to
within the Nganyi clan met to agree on a common forecast).
build a new community resource centre which will help to
This was followed by a facilitated discussion of the two
sustain indigenous forecasting practices, and strengthen the
forecasts by all. The points of departure were thoroughly
harmonization between SCF and IKF begun in this project.
considered and reasons for the differences explored.
Agreement was then reached on a harmonized forecast.
The indigenous knowledge practitioners were very useful
in this process, as they are familiar with the local features
that would modify the large-scale systems considered by the
meteorological methods.
Representatives of government departments (e.g., health,
agriculture, education, security, water) were then invited
to assume the role of change agent in communicating
the risks arising from the forecast. The officials produced
advisories for the public regarding activities in their area of
responsibility in anticipation of the forecast conditions. The
integrated forecast and advisories were then disseminated
to the larger community at a meeting at a church compound
within the project area. The various advisories were
presented by the officer responsible for the subject area.
The meetings were also used to evaluate the previous SCF meets IKF: Members of the Nganyi “rainmaker” clan of western Kenya
season’s forecast, specifically, whether it was accurate, working with meteorologists to develop a harmonized forecast that bridges
between their systems of interpretation.
whether people received it in time, and whether any
weather-related impacts were experienced in the region Photo: IDRC and DFID/ T. Omondi
Climate Change Adaptation in Africa program 9
14. CCAA Learning Paper
Meteorological
information is usually
too “coarse” for crop
planning, but integrating
indigenous forecasts
To integrate the different forecasts, detailed information to provide rainfall
about both types must be available. This seems to be an
with those provided distribution; hence, most
emerging challenge in Senegal also, according to the by the meteorological farmers relied on local
Infoclim (CSE) project, with information based on indigenous departments can bridge indicators. However,
knowledge not easily available. The reluctance of those with this gap. advances have been
indigenous knowledge is understandable and should be made that allow for
respected. However, if trust is developed between partners down-scaling to the
through participatory projects, opportunities for working local level.
together are likely to increase.
Some participants at the learning forum felt that there is
Combining IKFs and SCFs is one way to deal with the a need to scale up some indigenous knowledge indicators,
challenges faced in the development, communication, and such as certain tree species, so that they could be used
use of seasonal forecasts. Many farmers already make use more widely. Up-scaling might be a priority if communities
of indigenous forecasts in their farm-level decisions. Thus, identified this need and if relevant indicators could be scaled.
forecasters should target existing gaps so as to add value to Mystical indicators, for example, cannot be up-scaled as
communities working on the ground. Meteorological services people outside a local area have no knowledge of them.
could help explain the probability approach for the benefit of But plant indicators may be used over a wide area. Local
indigenous knowledge users. Meteorological information is knowledge about such indicators could be shared with other
usually too “coarse” for crop planning, but integrating IKFs communities. Up-scaling of tree species as indigenous
with the SCFs provided by the meteorological departments knowledge indicators has been carried out in the Zambia and
can bridge this gap as demonstrated by the IK in Western Zimbabwe (MSU) and Benin (IDID) projects.
Kenya (ICPAC) and Managing Risk in the GHA (SUA) projects.
Forecasting is not an end in itself, but should be viewed in
Climatologists are often uncertain what role indigenous a context of decision-making and risk management. Thus,
knowledge might play and indigenous knowledge forecasters there were conflicting opinions about whether indigenous
are suspicious of external people telling them about knowledge should be up-scaled. At the forum, some people
their environment. For future integration to occur, both felt that indigenous knowledge is only useful locally and
groups must be open to working together and building should not be up-scaled. Others felt that it could be “out-
understanding and trust. If this is achieved, imaginative, scaled,” where findings in one place (where there are good
innovative, and perhaps unexpected responses to climate meteorological data and where relationships between the
risk may emerge. two approaches can be demonstrated) can be extrapolated
to other areas. Exactly how this might be done has not
Validation: One way to increase acceptance of IKFs among
been established. Similarly, some researchers feel that
the scientific community is to validate these forecasts by
indigenous knowledge should be used in regional consensus
comparing them with SCFs. The starting point would be to
forums by integrating it with meteorological science, but how
monitor indigenous knowledge indicators to see whether
to do this remains a challenge.
they are linked to known scientific parameters. Tanzania and
Benin projects brought farmers and researchers together
in the field to observe and reflect on phenological change Tailoring information to user needs
identified by farmers and linked to other environmental
Tailoring climate information to farmers’ and pastoralists’
indicators. Another method was to use a core team to
local needs requires a number of steps and a range
monitor indigenous knowledge indicators, then explore how
of stakeholders must be involved. One of the clearest
these indicators relate to scientific ones.
contributions made by the PAR projects has been the
Down-scaling and up-scaling climate information: A establishment of multistakeholder platforms to interpret
second step in easing the integration of SCFs and IKFs meteorological, climate, agronomic, and indigenous
might be to look at information at the same spatial scale. information, develop advice about how farmers and
SCFs are usually given for regions rather than localities. In pastoralists might change their farming practices in light of
Benin, for example, the meteorological service was unable this information, and disseminate the tailored information to
10 Climate Change Adaptation in Africa program
15. make it more accessible to users than
the national level seasonal forecast.
The project in Benin, for example,
has established pre-alert committees
in 35 communes and it works with
a national agro-meteorological
pre-alert committee. The national
committee includes members from
the national meteorological services,
the national farmers committee, the
Ministry of Agriculture, the Ministry
of Environment, researchers from
Farmers and
national research institutes and the
researchers discussing
two national universities, project drought tolerant maize
members, NGOs, and farmers. In Benin, pre-alert varieties near Vumari
They receive the national agro- committees such as the village of Tanzania’s
one shown here bring Same district.
meteorological information from the
together national and
meteorological services in bulletin local stakeholders to in-
Photo courtesy of SUA
form. The various members provide terpret data and develop
input, based on their interpretation agro-meteorological
advisories useful to
of the national information as well as
rural producers.
their own experience and disciplinary
background to develop a package of Photo courtesy
of IDID-ONG
holistic and locally relevant information
they think will be suited to farmer use.
services, NGO representatives,
They prepare a bulletin in French
extension officers from district to
and send it to the local pre-alert
village levels, researchers, input
committees, which are composed
suppliers, and indigenous weather
of representatives of farmers’
forecasting groups. Once the national
organizations, local leaders, extension
SCF is released by the TMA, the core
service members, and local radio
team meets and compares it with the
stations. The local committees
indigenous knowledge-based weather
adapt the information to their area
forecast. Since the project began 3
by considering recent weather and
years ago, the two types of forecasts
the stage of agricultural production
have not contradicted each other. The
farmers are engaged in. The
comparison has made it easier to make
information is also translated into the
recommendations to farmers on which
local language. A communication plan
crops to plant and when, whether
is then developed targeting
they should consider diversifying, and
farmer meetings in the villages
whether pastoralists might consider
and local radio.
selling their livestock. This advice
In Same District, Tanzania, the is disseminated via brochures that
Managing Risk in the GHA (SUA) project extension officers and district officials
has established a core team that distribute or use as reference material
includes staff from the meteorological when talking to farmers. The project
Climate Change Adaptation in Africa program 11
16. These platforms have
increased farmer
confidence and capacity
to use data while helping
scientists understand
team also prints posters enhancing adaptation to climate change among pastoralists
that are put up in district IKFs and better tailor in northern Kenya. By exploring existing formal and informal
offices and given to their forecasts for local information channels, which were not immediately evident,
villages. To ensure that adaptation. the project was able to build on these channels before
this work is sustainable, attempting to develop new ones.
the project team has
For example, they found that key sources of information
asked the district
for herders were the shops and houses selling goods to
authorities to set aside a budget for team meetings in the
them. Women, on the other hand, share information at the
future and to extend the practice to other areas.
wells where they collect water; they discuss weather, range
These learning platforms have served two main functions. conditions, and where herders have moved. It was clear that
First, they have brought together actors who might settled pastoralists receive information at regular meetings
not usually spend time together, thus strengthening convened by the local chief. The chief, who is in contact
communication channels among those in the information with the district steering group that convenes to examine
chain. Second, the interactions have built confidence climate information relevant to the district, passes on that
among both farmers and extension officers in terms of information at the monthly village meetings. Project and
understanding and using the data. The multi-stakeholder extension staff members occasionally attend these meetings
platforms have not only been effective in increasing farmer as well to disseminate climate and non-climate information.
confidence and building farmer capacity to understand and
One of the key challenges that emerged around establishing
use data, but have also increased scientists’ capacity to
platforms for information use is the danger of creating
understand IKFs and better tailor their forecasts for
expectations and dependency. In some projects, such as
local adaptation.
in the African Smallholders (U. of Zimbabwe) research
The platforms also served another function in projects in in Zimbabwe, free inputs, such as seeds, are being given
Malawi and Zimbabwe. They provided an opportunity to raise to farmers to help them put into practice the advice they
awareness among farmers about both climate change and receive through the platforms. The seeds must be used
seasonal climate information. Building such awareness on the learning plots. However, because many of the
seemed to create increased demand for climate information communities in the area are vulnerable, they are receiving a
(from the meteorological services, from IKFs, and from lot of assistance from NGOs and the government, which can
the consensus forecast where available). It also increased determine the type of crop or variety they plant. Thus, it is
awareness among suppliers of climate data and those imperative that policymakers are included in the system for
disseminating the data about the needs of farmers. disseminating climate information to ensure that the right
seeds or crop varieties are distributed to the right place.
In eastern Zimbabwe (MSU), an innovative method of
Although this might make sense during these participatory
role-playing was used to help the various stakeholders
projects, there was a concern that this might create farmer
understand the needs and constraints of the others. For
dependency and reward failure in some cases.
example, farmers assumed the roles of meteorological
service scientists and vice versa and acted out their
Applying tailored climate information
response to the forecasts. This proved to be a powerful
way to help people see the nature of the problem and The platforms mentioned above are places where various
think through various decisions as well as develop a basic actors work together to produce new information. In this
understanding of some of the uncertainties associated with section, we describe how some of that information and
the forecasts. advice is put into practice.
Although establishing these new platforms serves many In southern Zambia and southwestern Zimbabwe, the
good purposes, existing information dissemination channels Zambia and Zimbabwe project has developed learning
can also be strengthened as a way of improving information centres, where various options for managing climate
flow and contributing to the sustainability of information variability are demonstrated in test fields. Through the
dissemination. This was clear in the project which aimed at learning centres, training modules are presented by
12 Climate Change Adaptation in Africa program
17. CCAA Learning Paper
researchers, meteorological officers, and extension officers, Instead of accepting dry In central Tanzania,
who provide climate forecasts and adaptation strategies to spells as evil or natural climate information is
sensitize farmers. Those doing the training get IKFs from paired with technical
calamities, farmers are
farmers and integrate this information with SCFs from advice, such as
now demanding more
meteorological officers before preparing and disseminating promotion of in situ
advisories to farmers. information on weather rainwater harvesting
conditions and how they technologies and
Using this information, villages then decide what strategies
might plan. improved early-maturing
to follow and what technology to employ. These decisions
and drought-tolerant
then become the basis for what the project participants refer
varieties, and this has
to as “baby trials” that address the concerns of a particular
led to an increase in yield of farmers who adopted the
village and are managed by farmers within that village.
innovations.
“Mother trials” then combine the various “baby trials” and
represent the concerns of a ward — about 600 households in As part of the Tanzania and Malawi (IRA) project, they have
the Zimbabwean context. also used learning plots, but they differ from those used
in Zimbabwe. The plots linked to the learning centre are
Both mother and baby trials are monitored by the
“mother plots,” where all sets of treatments are applied,
researchers and the farmers throughout the season, and
including different fertilizers and seeds. The farmers then
a field day is held at harvest to demonstrate the effect of
choose one or two of the strategies demonstrated in the
various crop management practices on yield, based on the
mother plots to try on their “baby plots.”
given forecast. An interesting outcome of this approach is
that the farmers have taken it upon themselves to pass on The farmers involved in the project help harvest the mother
this information and have developed dramas and songs plots and can judge the results for themselves. In the 2009
related to the lessons they learn. Evidence of use has been cropping season, for example, it was evident that the use
demonstrated in reapplication and scaling up of practices of new tillage methods increased yields. These methods
that were taught. In addition, there has been a rise in included ripping (using the Magoye ripper implement that
demand for early dissemination of the SCF and the training creates deeper furrows), tie-ridging (using an ox-drawn
modules, as a result of the perceived increase in yield among ridger and ties between furrows to increase water retention),
farmers who had attended the training. and deep ploughing using a “spring jembe” (a long, narrow
implement attached to a hoe supported on a used motor
In Malawi, farmers involved in “learning plots” have begun
vehicle suspension spring that has the ability to make deep
to adopt these strategies in their own fields. This seems to
furrows on hard soils). Using these methods increased
be attributable to the demonstration technique and learning
sorghum yields 30.5–66% over those using traditional tillage
by doing of farmers participating in the Tanzania and Malawi
methods (slash and burn, locally called kuberega).
(IRA) project. In addition to uptake of adaptation strategies,
there has also been a change in attitude toward adaptation The InfoClim (CSE) project in Senegal also supports a
to climate change. Before the project, farmers associated process of learning among partners. A regional committee
change in weather with natural causes and thought they and a number of local committees work with farmers to
could not do anything about it; now they realize that they gather information on practices in the previous season.
can initiate adaptive strategies on their own. Instead of Each local committee holds a forum once a year; most local
accepting dry spells as evil or natural calamities, farmers people attend and talk about past experiences, challenges,
are now demanding more information from extension service and what they might do in the coming season. During the
providers on weather conditions and how they might plan. season, the local committee meets twice with the regional
They are finding that some kinds of IKFs are not working as committee for updates.
they used to. Previously, when the temperature rose, the
Evidence of change can be seen in the increased uptake
rains would begin; now it gets hot for two weeks and the
of climate information by farmers. Although they said
rains don’t come.
they appreciated the information they received from the
meteorological office before the project started, they weren’t
Climate Change Adaptation in Africa program 13
18. because multiple stakeholders are
involved, they help create ownership
which appears to be increasing the use
of climate information.
The way forward
Lessons for national meteorological
services and regional climate centres:
These projects provide numerous
Research leader lessons for meteorological services
Henry Mahoo of
Sokoine University of
in terms of strengthening the type
Agriculture discusses of information provided and how it is
the use of rain gauges
Information that is disseminated, as well as interactions
with farmers in Mhezi with users.
village, Tanzania. tailored to user needs is
Photo courtesy of SUA more likely to be used. Information that is tailored to user
needs is more likely to be used. Clearly,
farmers want more than just information
about the overall rainfall expected in
a season. They need to know how the
sure how to use it. Now, because the upcoming season will differ from normal
climate information is more specific seasons in terms of the onset of the
to their local area, farmers are rainy season, cessation, and lengths of
seeing and discussing the benefits of dry spells, as well as the seasonal total.
using it. For example, after the local More important, there is a desire for
committee evaluated information from agro-meteorological information rather
all partners, they suggested that it than just meteorological information. For
was too early to start planting. Those example, although farmers want to hear
who planted early lost their crops. about rainfall, they are more interested
Similarly, at the end of the season the in suggestions about how they might
committee suggested that farmers change their activities in response to
might wait to harvest as they were changes in rainfall total and timing.
expecting more rain. Those who did
Some meteorological services include
not wait lost out on better yields. The
agro-meteorologists who can develop
sharing of information and experience
this advice. Where this is not the case,
has strengthened farmers’ capacity
partnerships are required to provide
and built a collective understanding,
the needed information. As was
supported by growing trust between
clearly seen from the projects, agro-
the various actors.
meteorological information becomes
It is clear that these multi-stakeholder more useful if it is interpreted in
platforms are helping to clarify relation to local conditions and local
how farmers interpret and apply activities. Meteorological services
climate information. As seen from cannot be expected to provide locally
the examples above, they can also relevant information in all areas,
be a good forum for disseminating which again supports the need for
successful farming practices and, partnerships. Agricultural extension
14 Climate Change Adaptation in Africa program
19. CCAA Learning Paper
When meteorologists
engage with indigenous
knowledge forecasters,
value is added to the
information from both
officers, in particular, were calls to promote the integration of these two types of
sources. are important allies climate information.
because of their
To improve current forecasting practices, more emphasis
experience with
could be placed on identifying local predictors — both what
agriculture strategies, climate variability, and local
they predict and their equivalent in meteorological terms.
communities’ needs. In many cases, although extension
This should be explored in relation to climate change
officers have been trained in agricultural science, they grew
to help indigenous knowledge practitioners determine
up in local communities and are sensitive to the local signs
whether these indicators are affected by climate change.
and beliefs of their elders. Thus, they are in a key position to
Meteorological services could start integrating local
bridge the two types of information.
indigenous knowledge, such as phenological data, into their
When meteorological staff engage with indigenous advisories to provide users with holistic information, as in
knowledge forecasters, value is added to the information the IK project in
from both sources. In projects where IKFs and SCFs were western Kenya
integrated (e.g., IK in Western Kenya and Managing Risk in and the IDID
the GHA), there was agreement on the expected forecast, There was consensus project in Benin.
highlighting the fact that the two types of knowledge that IKFs should be used This alignment
can complement each other rather than being seen as more widely alongside between SCFs and
separate. A significant challenge will be to get buy-in from meteorological SCFs to IKFs could help
meteorologists regarding the value of indigenous knowledge increase reliability and users see that the
as well as getting indigenous knowledge forecasters to learn acceptability of overall two approaches
more about SCFs and potential synergies. It is evident from forecasts. are not in
KMD and TMA experiences that the participatory process opposition.
of engaging indigenous knowledge forecasters from the
A core multidisciplinary team is needed to carry out the
beginning is key to this, as well as feedback from users who
integration. Both human and institutional capacity must be
can articulate how indigenous forecasts are able to meet
developed to validate indigenous knowledge indicators and
some of their requirements where SCFs may fall short.
find effective ways to link IKFs with SCFs. Local farmer-
In addition to tailoring SCFs to users’ needs, there are managed meteorological stations could be key in helping to
challenges related to the current spatial and temporal scale validate IKFs, as had been shown through ICPAC’s work in
of the information. Farmers working in their fields not only Kenya, Midlands State University in Zimbabwe, and the SUA
want to know how the projections for the region are relevant team in Same, Tanzania. Achieving this integration is going
to their own activities, they also need the information in to require sufficient time for case-study-based projects to
time. Farmers start preparing for planting weeks or months pilot the various validation, integration, and dissemination
before the season starts. If they receive the seasonal techniques. In addition, it is important that those working
forecast two weeks before the season, it is often too late with SCFs and students learning about them are more
for them to change their plans. Through the projects, it exposed to IKFs and their strengths from early on in the
became clear that providing indigenous forecasts earlier curriculum.
than the SCFs can help farmers start thinking and planning
Supporting future uptake of integrated climate forecasts:
for changes. But there should also be more emphasis
The PAR projects have shown that even though indigenous
on helping meteorological services disseminate their
knowledge is useful to farmers and can complement SCFs,
information as quickly as possible, which can depend on the
to make the best use of this rich information, scientists
actors in the communications chain.
and researchers will need increased capacity to request,
Support for integrating IKFs and SCFs: Among the analyze, and use the necessary data. Future research must
eight projects represented at the learning forum, there involve specialists in fields, such as botany and zoology,
was consensus that IKFs should be used more widely in who can study plant and animal behaviour and relate it to
conjunction with meteorological SCFs to increase reliability conventional forecasts. Indigenous knowledge providers also
and acceptability of overall forecasts. For this reason, there need to be supported so that they can share their knowledge
Climate Change Adaptation in Africa program 15
