1. Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning
Preparing the foundations -
Theory of Change and Log frames: the DFID
approach
Dr Caroline Hoy
Civil Society Department
Department of International Development
c-hoy@dfid.gov.uk
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2. Four Foundation Stones of MEL
1. Understand your 2. Understand your MEL
programme needs and demands
a. What is the need for the a. Learning and improvement
programme? b. Accountability and impact
b. How will the programme respond c. Respond to donors
to the identified need? d. Stakeholders
c. Theory of change e. Beneficiaries
3. Plan your MEL approach 4. Manage your evaluation
a.Structure and monitor your a. Roles and responsibilities
progress (log frame) b. Finance
b.Key evaluation questions c. Timeframe
c.Methods d. Capacity
d.Analysis e. Dissemination and
e.Learning and feedback communication
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3. DFID Log frame
PROJECT NAME Development Project XXXXX
IMPACT Impact Indicator 1 Baseline Milestone 1 Milestone 2 Target (March 20??)
Planned
Achieved
Source
OUTCOME Outcome Indicator 1 Baseline Milestone 1 Milestone 2 Target (March 20??) Assumptions
Planned
Achieved
Source
Outcome Indicator 2 Baseline Milestone 1 Milestone 2 Target (March 20??)
Planned
Achieved
Source
Outcome Indicator 3 Baseline Milestone 1 Milestone 2 Target (March 20??)
Planned
Achieved
Source
Outcome Indicator 4 Baseline Milestone 1 Milestone 2 Target (March 20??)
Planned
Achieved
Source
INPUTS (£) DFID (£) Govt (£) Other (£) Total (£) DFID SHARE (%)
INPUTS (HR) DFID (FTEs)
OUTPUT 1 Output Indicator 1.1 Baseline Milestone 1 Milestone 2 Target (March 20??) Assumptions
Planned
Achieved
Source
Output Indicator 1.2 Baseline Milestone 1 Milestone 2 Target (March 20??)
Planned
Achieved
Source
IMPACT WEIGHTING (%)
RISK RATING
INPUTS (£) DFID (£) Govt (£) Other (£) Total (£) DFID SHARE (%)
INPUTS (HR) DFID (FTEs)
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4. Theory of Change definition
'Theory of change' is a process which
applies critical thinking to the design,
implementation and evaluation of initiatives
and programmes intended to support
change in their contexts.
The description of a sequence of events that
is expected to lead to change
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5. Key aspects of a theory of change
•Context,
•The current state of the problem,
•Long-term change,
•Process/sequence of change,
•Assumptions,
•Evidence or logic base,
•Diagram and narrative summary…
… and the voice of the beneficiary.
•But …
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6. Theory of change process 1
Context Current state of the Desired long term
Social, political, problem change
environmental …
Diagram and
Sequence of change Assumptions
narrative summary
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7. Theory of change process 2
Impact/
Baseline
Outcomes
Context Current state of the Desired long term
Social, political, problem change
environmental …
Diagram and
Sequence of change Assumptions
narrative summary
Inputs, activities, ? Information for
output … or log frame
results chain 7

8. Results Chain
Input Process Output Outcome Impact
Context and Assumptions
• Funds, expertise, time, staff
• Activities, actions … (Education strategy, resourcing plans)
• Specific deliverable of the project and which provide conditions
necessary for outcome(s) to be achieved (schools built)
• What will change/who will benefit (children receiving quality education
to primary school level yr5)
• Overall goal to which the project will contribute (literacy levels)
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9. Theory of Change: Case study –
Accountability Tanzania (AcT) 1
• www.accountability.or.tz
• Funded by DFID
• Aim: to support citizens to make government
more transparent, accountable and responsive to
citizens, by working with civil society
organisations in Tanzania
• Provides funding and technical support to CSOs
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10. Theory of Change: Case study –
Accountability Tanzania (AcT) 2
Headline Theory of Change
‘Supporting civil society partners to implement
context-specific strategic interventions will
enable them to influence positive change in the
attitudes and behaviour of citizens, civil society
and government, making government as a
whole more responsive and accountable.’
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11. Theory of Change: Case study – Accountability Tanzania (AcT) 3
Longer ToC narrative – enabling identification of inputs, process, outputs and outcomes
•‘If civil society grantees are carefully selected and respond to individual support tailored to
their programming and internal systems, they will be able to utilise grants to develop
targeted strategic interventions which are sensitive to changes over time and in the broader
political economy, as well as their geographic location, their sector, institutional mandate and
values.
INPUTS, PROCESS
•And if grantees also commit to systematic learning individually and collectively the work they
do will be more the effective. PROCESS
•CSOs implementing programmes will engage in a range of knowledge and information
generating and disseminating activities as well as developing the capacity of other
stakeholders to articulate their roles and responsibilities. PROCESS OUTPUTS
•Some participatory activities build directly into citizen action and civil society
strengthening, whereas others focus on influencing the behaviour of elected and appointed
officials and of the judiciary – at local and national levels. OUTPUTS
•Influencing activities can be formal or informal, inside track or outside track, and CSOs
become more adept at selecting which is going to be most effective under what circumstances.
•The result of the behaviour changes on the part of key stakeholders is the impact level of the
programme: ‘Increased responsiveness and accountability of government through a
strengthened civil society.’
OUTCOME
•The super impact of the programme is the increasing ability of Tanzanian to claim and
exercise their rights as citizens’ (Achievement of MDGs 3&8 gender equality/women’s
empowerment and partnership in development).
IMPACT

12. Impact MDGs achieved
Increased accountability and
Outcome
responsiveness of Government
Behaviour change
Outputs Citizens Government
Civil
Influence on behaviour of
Citizen society
elected representatives, strengthen
action
govt. offices, judiciary ed
Process
outputs
Knowledge Capacity
generated Information disseminated
built
Targeted strategic interventions
Process
Individual and shared learning
Inputs Selection, tailored support, grants
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13. Exercise: Creating a Theory of Change
1. What issue/problem are you trying to address?
2. What are you trying to achieve?
3. What are you doing?
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14. Exercise: Creating a Theory of Change
3. Break down your theory of change (and create a results
chain)
Inputs Outputs
Process Outcome
Process Outputs Impact
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15. Assumptions
• Challenges to logic
• If not identified can
undermine a
programme e.g.
nutrition in Bangladesh
• May result in
fundamental alterations
to a project or
programme
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16. 4
3
Assumptions
2
1
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17. Assumptions 1
INPUTS
‘If civil society grantees are carefully selected and respond to individual support
tailored to their programming and internal systems, they will be able to utilise
grants
1
ASSUMPTIONS: INPUTS TO PROCESS
•AcT has a successful selection process that can identify organisations committed
to change rather than administering money with a governance spin
•AcT has skills and judgement to provide support, manage risk and the portfolio
•CSOs have sector and area specific knowledge and understanding
•CSO can develop familiarity with, and confidence in, working in changing political
economy and develop to work with this
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18. Assumptions 2
PROCESSES
to develop targeted strategic interventions which are sensitive to changes over
time and in the broader political economy, as well as their geographic location,
their sector, institutional mandate and values. And if grantees also commit to
systematic learning individually and collectively the work they do will be more
the effective.
2
ASSUMPTIONS: PROCESSES TO OUTPUTS
•Systematic learning enables CSOs to grow and move beyond ‘business as
usual’; copycat approaches and ‘chasing the money’
•CSOs become aware of the positive and negative lessons developed by others
•CSOs monitor their own effectiveness and make changes as appropriate
•CSOs document and embed learning
•CSOs maintain ethics and integrity
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19. Assumptions 3
PROCESSES
CSOs implementing programmes will engage in a range of knowledge and
information generating and disseminating activities as well as developing the
capacity of other stakeholders to articulate their roles and responsibilities.
3
ASSUMPTIONS: PROCESS OUTPUTS TO OUTPUTS
•Citizens are stimulated to respond to knowledge and information
•Citizens see the value of taking action on information, knowledge and
participation in capacity building
•Participatory processes are empowering and stimulate action
•Citizens overcome fear and apathy and stimulate others to join in
•Decision makers recognise that they will not retain power unless they respond to
their citizens
•Decision makers are open to citizen and civil society action
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20. Assumptions 4
OUTPUTS
Some participatory activities build directly into citizen action and civil society
strengthening, whereas others focus on influencing the behaviour of elected
and appointed officials and of the judiciary – at local and national levels.
Influencing activities can be formal or informal, inside track or outside track,
and CSOs become more adept at selecting which is going to be most
effective under what circumstances.
4
ASSUMPTIONS: OUTCOME TO IMPACT
•Individual elected representatives, appointed officials and member of the
judiciary are able to influence the politics and systems that frame their
actions
•Legislation, state systems and official processes are open to change
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21. Exercise: Thinking about assumptions
1. What assumptions might you be making about your project or programme?
2. To which level of your results chain/ logic model do they apply?
3. What are the implications for your project or programme? Can you do something
about these or simply acknowledge issues through e.g. risk planning?
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22. DFID Log Frames 1
• Allows harmonised reporting across DFID
• Promotes stakeholder consensus
• Summarises and communicates unambiguously
• Allows comparison of planned and actual results
• Also includes indicators and milestones. Indicators
are performance measures which tell us what we
are going to measure, not what we are going to
achieve
• Importance of baselines
• Importance of disaggregation of information e.g.
by gender
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23. DFID Log Frames 2
• Impact – not intended to be achieved by the
project – the higher level situation that the
project will contribute towards achieving.
• Targets should be Specific, Measureable,
Achievable, Relevant and Time-bound
• Source – the list of information you will need
to demonstrate what has been accomplished
• Impact weighting – a percentage for the
contribution each output is likely to make to
the achievement of the overall impact
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24. Useful Links
World Bank Impact Evaluation Toolkit: http
://web.worldbank.org/
Http://go.worldbank.org/IT69C5OGL0
DFID Theory of Change:
http://www.dfid.gov.uk/r4d/Output/190843/Default.aspx
Theory of Change Community:
https://www.theoryofchange.org/
Kellogg Foundation Handbook:
http://www.wkkf.org/knowledge-center/resources/2010/W-
K-Kellogg-Foundation-Evaluation-Handbook.aspx
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