Renewable energy, particularly solar and wind, is growing in importance across Nordic countries. Solar energy production is led by Norway's strong silicon industry. Currently, hydro provides most electricity in Norway, Denmark, Finland, and Sweden, but wind is growing, especially in Denmark. Future reductions in solar costs and innovations may allow solar to achieve widespread adoption. Large-scale installations and rising production volumes indicate solar is approaching competitiveness without subsidies.

1. Renewable energy in the Nordic Countries
Nordic Green 2010
Dr. Alf Bjørseth

2. Agenda
• Energy in Nordic countries
• Solar Energy
• Wind Energy
• Future Solar Energy

3. Norway - energy is important
Norway (population of 4.7 million) is
• the World’s 3rd largest natural gas exporter
• the World’s 3rd largest oil exporter
• the World’s 5th largest producer of hydro
electricity
• Hydro electricity covers 98.8 % of domestic
electricity generation (in a normal year)

4. Energy in Nordic countries
Energy source Denmark Iceland Finland Norway Sweden
Hydro electric x x x
Oil & gas (x) x
Nuclear x x
Wind x pot. x
Other x(thermal) x(biomass)

5. Solar Energy

6. Solar industry in Norway based on strong
silicon competence - Norway used to be the
World’s largest silicon producer

7. REC’s Positions in the PV Value Chain
Polysilicon Wafer Solar Cell Solar Module Systems
Solar Grade
ScanWafer ScanCell ScanModule SolEnergy
Silicon
(SW) (SC) (SM) (SE)
(SGS)

8. Main companies having an industrial basis for solar energy
Metal. Poly-
Ingot Wafer Cells Modules Systems Solar farms Customer
silicon silicon

9. Grid connected solar
Mühlhausen, Germany (6.3MW)
Pfeffenhausen, Germany (5.56 MW)
Granswang, Germany (1.7 MW)
Koppenzell,
Germany
(1.7 MW)

10. Commercial roof installations
Chateau St. Jean
California, 700kW

11. Decentralized Energy Generation
Rampura Village, India
8,7kWp
Mini grid system

12. The Norwegian solar energy cluster -
one of the worlds leading
INNOTECH Solar

13. Wind Energy

14. Denmark – dedicated development of wind power
• Wind power provided 19.7 percent of electricity
production and 24.1% of capacity in Denmark in 2007
• is the world's leading supplier of wind power solutions
• 12,5 per cent market share
• more than 40,000 wind turbines installed

15. Horn’s Rev – off the coast of Denmark
• One of the world’s largest wind farms at sea
• 80 turbines – 2 MW efficiency each
– 14 – 20 km off shore,
– Depth 6 – 14 meter
• 160 MW total capacity
• Provides electricity to 150,000 Danish
households
• Owned 60 % by Swedish Vattenfall

16. Alpha Ventus off the coast of Germany – September 09
5 MW turbines – 45 km offshore, 30 meters depth

17. Jacket installation
CONFIDENTIAL

18. NorWind has designed and intends to build a dedicated
installation vessel
Alpha Ventus learnt us that … and has designed a dedicated
dedicated vessels are needed installation vessel that meets objectives
Main objectives are:
•Substantial installation
cost reductions
•Efficient
operations
•High utilization
•Low risk and high HES
standards
CONFIDENTIAL

19. Future of solar energy

20. PV is now like a teenager: Approaching maturity in a non-linear
fashion, including multiple crises – not yet able to pay its own way
2007 2008 2009 2010
Si scarcity; high prices Collapsing German FIT
module reductions
prices
PV project financing Asian producers capturing
challenging large market shares
Not yet financially “In 2010 the sum-of-average cost of a c-Si system is
self-sufficient (but $3.51/W, equivalent to a levelized solar electricity
getting closer!): cost of $0.18/kWh in sunny environments.”
Photon Consulting, 2010 Cost Report

21. To grow up big & strong, PV needs competitive costs: System
cost ~$2.1/Wp is required to reach $0.10/kWh in best locations
$0.10/kWh
~average price of
electricity in US
copyright Mines ParisTech / Armines 2006
Average annual horizontal irradiance [kWh/m2 per year]
88 263 438 613 788 964 1139 1314 1489 1664 1840 2015 2190 2365 2540
Discount Calculation for
rate LCOE [$/kWh] with module cost = 1.00 + non-module cost = 1.10 [$/Wp]
5 % 2,61 0,87 0,52 0,37 0,29 0,24 0,20 0,17 0,15 0,14 0,12 0,11 0,10 0,10 0,09 systems cost =
7 % 3,03 1,01 0,61 0,43 0,34 0,28 0,23 0,20 0,18 0,16 0,14 0,13 0,12 0,11 0,10 $2.10/Wp
Key assumptions: Plant operation period: 20 yrs, Annual degradiation: 0.2 %, Opex: 50 $/kWp per yr,
Corporate tax rate 30 %

22. How close are we to ”Big and Strong”, and what are the needed
efforts to get there?
Cost Volume
PV is rapidly getting close to Rapid growth, with a lot
financial independence more in the pipeline
•Best players already at •Incredible growth rate over the
attractive cost levels past few years
•Significant potential for further •A lot more in the pipeline
improvements

23. Sum-of-best practices c-Si module cost ~$1/Wp after dramatic
cost reductions past year, lead by Asian manufacturers
$/Wp
NOTE: This is cost only, and best in class for
each step in value chain – no one producer With best-in-class
is close to $1/Wp all-in module cost Module
non-module cost ,
total systems cost
Cell for the sum-of-best
Total
players is
Wafer approaching $2/Wp
– with today’s
Si technology!
Examples / 7g/Wp; $30/kg Jinko at JA Solar < Solarfun at
assumptions Si cost (DB ~$0.29/Wp $0.20/Wp in $0.30/Wp
Feb 2010) Q4’09;
Motech at
~$0.22/Wp
Sources: Deutsche Bank (Feb 2010); Macquire (Apr 2010); Morgan Stanley (Mar 2010)

24. Technical developments could further reduce PV cost
$/Wp
Module
Cell
Total
Wafer
Si
Huge amount of Si Higher efficiency = key
material is wasted in to cost reductions
the process – what throughout value chain
are the alternatives? – how?

25. Huge amount of Si material is wasted in the process – what are
the alternatives?
~Half the material E.g., SiGen, IMEC, others
is wasted as kerf Kerf-free
wafering – still under development
losses in the Less usage
wafer cutting per Watt of
process silicon
Direct wafer E.g., ribbon growth –
quality and process cost would
Wafers could be crystallization further favor
significantly key issues
high-quality
thinner - wafers, i.e.
representing Epitaxial Rapid development in Super-Mono
further potential growth low-cost epi processes
materials savings

26. Installed volumes have grown quickly over the past few years…
Annual world PV installations (GW)
2008-9 volume growth
of 20%, despite
•Financial crisis
•Collapse of Spanish
market
2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: Solarbuzz

27. …with a lot more supply coming; 20+ GW/y in 2010/11
Forecasted production (GW)
Photon→ 2010E
capacity ~31.7GW
PV on track to
produce “relevant”
volumes very soon
Deutsche Morgan Photon Deutsche Morgan
Bank Stanley Bank Stanley
2010E 2011E
Sources: Deutsche Bank (Feb 2010); Morgan Stanley (March 2010);
Photon International (March 2010)

28. Summary: Emerging low costs & large technological
improvement potentials → rapidly maturing industry
Emerging •$1/Wp module cost within reach
low cost •Potential to further reduce systems costs
significantly
PV getting
close to self-
Innovation •Reduced Si usage (e.g., epitaxial growth)
sufficiency –
potential •Higher efficiency (e.g., cheap Super-Mono)
with massive
growth
potential
Growing ~20GW production expected in ‘10/11 – &
scale “giants” from adjacent industries entering
PV, further increasing growth potential

29. BACK-UP

30. BACK-UP
Scale required: ~100 GW/y in order to substitute new coal with PV
Trillion kWh 31,8
28,9
26,1
23,2 1 trillion kWh
20,7 corresponds to ½
Other TW PV capacity
Wind
Hydro times 2,000 sun
hours
Coal increases by ~1 trillion kWh per 5 years
Coal
This capacity
increase is spread
Gas over 5 years, i.e. we
Nuclear need ~100 GW PV
Liquids per year
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Source: EIA