Bryn Davidson's presentation to the Vancouver Board of Trade, November 2010.

1. Dynamic Cities: Planning for Peak Oil and Climate Change Bryn Davidson B.Eng. M.Arch. LEED-AP

2. Peak Oil and Climate Change

4. US Domestic Oil Production

6. US Energy Information Agency

7. US Energy Information Agency

8. US Energy Information Agency

9. US Energy Information Agency

10. Peak Oil + Climate Change The Dynamic City = Sustainable and Resilient

11. Make resilient investments in infrastructure Create resilient city systems 1 2 The Dynamic City = Sustainable and Resilient

12. Make resilient investments in infrastructure (invest in projects that retain their value across many futures) Create resilient city systems 1 2 Scenario Planning! The Dynamic City = Sustainable and Resilient

13. Make resilient investments in infrastructure Create resilient city systems (that remain functional, and fair, through transition shocks) 1 2 Prepare for Likely Transition Shocks The Dynamic City = Sustainable and Resilient

14. = Why are we only planning for a future that looks like the past?

15. Bundle of strategies for reducing emissions.

16. Only ~15% of strategies address oil dependence

17. BC: ‘Gateway’ Highway Expansions ? Why are we only planning for a future that looks like the past? ‘ Peak Oil’ is missing from the conversation.

18. WA: Alaskan Way Viaduct Tunnel BC: ‘Gateway’ Highway Expansions Why are we only planning for a future that looks like the past?

19. WA: Alaskan Way Viaduct Tunnel Why are we only planning for a future that looks like the past? San Antonio: 410 Expansion

20. WA: Alaskan Way Viaduct Tunnel Do these projects still have value in a future defined by peak oil and climate change? San Antonio: 410 Expansion

21. WA: Alaskan Way Viaduct Tunnel Will they become stranded assets? Are they diverting resources from more important projects? San Antonio: 410 Expansion

22. Will they become stranded assets? Are they diverting resources from more important projects?

23. Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change

24. Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by increasing prices) B.A.U. (Population and economic growth) Today Oil Depletion Scenario: Conventional Oil Available to U.S. Consumers Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change

25. Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by increasing prices) B.A.U. (Population and economic growth) Today Total miles driven using oil-based diesel fuel Example: Freight Truck Miles Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change

26. Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by increasing prices) B.A.U. (Population and economic growth) Today Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change

27. Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by increasing prices) B.A.U. (Population and economic growth) Today Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change Tar Sands, Shale, Coal Liquids Etc.

28. Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by increasing prices) B.A.U. (Population and economic growth) Today Total Transportation Capacity Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change

29. Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by increasing prices) B.A.U. (Population and economic growth) Today Required Road Capacity: Peak Roads? Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change

30. Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by increasing prices) B.A.U. (Population and economic growth) Today Local Population Growth Scenario: including migration driven by peak oil and climate change Population Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change

31. Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by increasing prices) B.A.U. (Population and economic growth) Today Mobility Shortage vs. Today’s Standards Population Widening Mobility Gap Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change

37. The Dynamic City = ‘Sustainable’ + Resilient

39. Investing in electrified rail (skytrain, streetcars, freight rail)

40. Bike Lanes: Facilitating ‘Post-Carbon’ Consumer and Employee Mobility

41. ‘ Net Positive’ Business As the business grows, regional oil consumption goes down

42. ‘ Post Carbon’ Goods Movement

43. ‘ Post Carbon’ Goods Movement All electric goods movement Rail to Electric cross docking (False Creek Flats)

44. ‘ Eco-density’ Laneway Housing

45. Bryn Davidson B.Eng. M.Arch. LEED-AP [email_address] 604.728.0606