Brunswick Insight is pleased to announce our proprietary polling and analysis of Trans-Atlantic public opinion on international trade and TTIP, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership. The analysis includes results from our polling among US Policy Elites and analysis of the public opinion on this issue.

1. TTIP: Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership
Trans-Atlantic Perceptions
Robert Moran
December 2014

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Methodology
Who we surveyed
U.S. readers of Politico, PoliticoPro, The Hill,
Roll Call, Washington Post, Washington
Times, National Journal and Congressional
Quarterly.
How many people we
surveyed
300
How we surveyed them Targeted SpeedRead online data collection
Margin of error ±5.6% at the 95% confidence interval
Sources

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Support for TTIP
There is both bipartisan and transatlantic support for a free trade agreement
“…This potentially groundbreaking partnership
would deepen those ties. It would increase exports,
decrease barriers to trade and investment. As part
of broader growth strategies in both our economies,
it would support hundreds of thousands of jobs on
both sides of the ocean.”
– President Barack Obama
“I’ve got a lot of members who believe that
international trade agreements are a winner for
America. And the President and I discussed that
right before I came over here. And I think he’s
interested in moving forward. I said, send us trade
agreements. We’re anxious to take a look at them.”
– Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell
“The European Union and the USA already have a
dense network of free trade agreements with third
countries and are currently engaged in
negotiations on several more agreements. Now
we must and will manage to reach agreement
with one another putting in place a transatlantic
free trade zone.”
– Chancellor Angela Merkel
“… Integrating two of the most developed, most
sophisticated, and certainly the largest economies
in the world can never be an easy task, but we will
find convincing answers to legitimate
concerns. We will find solutions to thorny
issues. We will keep our eyes on the prize, and
we’ll succeed. ”
– Fmr. European Commission President José
Manuel Barroso

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Voices of Skepticism
Opposition to TTIP has been expressed by labor and environmental activists, and in the media
"The aim of this deal is to secure and expand the
privileges of companies and investors."
– Director of Public Citizen's Global Trade Watch
Lori Wallach
“I am concerned that standards in all sectors will
be loosened. Consumer protection in particular, is
an area where the US and the EU are worlds
apart.”
– Green MEP Martin Häusling

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34% 28% 28%
21% 17% 14% 7%
39%
33% 31%
27% 32% 38%
33%
9%
8% 8%
4% 6% 1%
7%
17%
31%
33%
49% 45% 47% 52%
Skeptical Citizens
In contrast to the elite perspective, audiences in advanced economies are skeptical of trade’s impact on wages
No difference
Increase
Don’t know/
refused
Decrease
Question: Does trade with other countries lead to an increase in the
wages of (survey nationality) workers, a decrease in wages, or does it
not make a difference?
Source: Pew, Faith and Skepticism about Trade, Foreign Investment, September 2014
United
States
GermanyFrance
United
Kingdom
ItalyGreece Spain

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34%
18% 16%
54%
57%
47%
3%
3%
4%
7%
18%
27%
2% 5%
7%
Some Public Skepticism of Chinese Trade, Especially in the U.S.
National audiences show less strong support for trade, but it is trade with China that garners opposition
Americans Germans
26% 22% 16%
45% 50%
35%
6% 9%
4%
14%
13%
25%
9% 5%
20%
Somewhat badSomewhat good Very bad/BadVery good/Good Don’t know/refused
Other
Countries
Other
Countries
European
Union
China ChinaThe United
States
What do you think about growing trade between the
United States and …?
Source: Pew, Support in Principle
for U.S.-EU Trade Pact, April 2014

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Americans Generally Supportive of International Trade
While Americans do think trade is good, this approval has slipped from former highs and lags behind elites
26%
39% 35%
45%
50%
44%
6%
4%
6%14%
4% 14%
9% 3% 1%
Somewhat bad
Somewhat good
Very bad
Very good
Don’t know/refused/
Unsure
Republican
Policy Elites
Democratic
Policy Elites
Americans
*
What do you think about growing trade
between the U.S. and other countries?
* Source: Pew, Support in Principle for
U.S.-EU Trade Pact, April 2014

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34%
54%
3%
7%
2%
Positive German Attitudes Towards Trade
German opinion on trade is more positive than Americans, and is closer to American elite opinion
26%
39% 35%
45%
50%
44%
6%
4%
6%14%
4% 14%
9% 3% 1%
Somewhat bad
Somewhat good
Very bad
Very good
Don’t know/refused/
Unsure
**
Republican
Policy Elites
Democratic
Policy Elites
Americans Germans
*
What do you think about growing trade
between the U.S. and other countries?
What do you think about growing trade
between Germany and other countries?
* Source: Pew, Support in Principle
for U.S.-EU Trade Pact, April 2014
23%
9%

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Crowded Media Environment

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67%
50%
33% 32% 30%
25%
37%
40%
30% 35%
5% 11%
13%
22% 16%
4% 2%
13% 16% 19%
71%
56%
41%
34% 30%
24%
35%
35%
29%
26%
3% 7%
17%
14%
20%
1% 2%
7%
23% 24%
Republican
Policy Elites
Democratic
Policy Elites
Some – I know
about this story,
but do not know all
of the details
A little – I have
heard of this story
A lot – I could
explain this story in
great detail
Nothing – I have
never heard of this
story
Solid Awareness, But Little Clarity Around Trade Initiatives
Elite audiences are aware of TTIP and other trade initiatives, though it lags behind many other news stories
Please indicate if you have seen, read, or heard about
the following news stories over the past 60 days.
TTIP: Trans-Atlantic Perceptions, December 2014

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35% 36% 36% 35%
44% 37%
44%
34%
6%
8%
3%
5%
14%
13% 13%
22%
1% 6%
3% 5%
U.S. Policy Elites and Trade
Trade with other nations is viewed positively, though this is a soft sentiment; Republicans show more opposition
39% 36% 35% 35%
50% 54% 49%
40%
4% 4%
6%
5%
4% 5% 6%
15%
3% 2%
4% 5%
Republican
Policy Elites
Democratic
Policy Elites
Other
Countries
Other
Countries
European
Union
20+
Countries
20+
Countries
China ChinaEuropean
Union
*Full question listed “Australia, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Israel, Jordan,
Mexico, Singapore, South Korea, and many others.”
* *
Somewhat badSomewhat good Very bad/BadVery good/Good Unsure
What do you think about growing trade between the
United States and …?
TTIP: Trans-Atlantic Perceptions, December 2014

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Partisan Split on Trade
Elite and National Democrats have consistently shown a higher level of support for free trade than Republicans
Opinion on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership
(% Saying “Good”)
Republican
Policy Elites
Democratic
Policy Elites
84%
79%
60%
44%
“Free trade agreements like NAFTA, policies of the WTO…”
(% Saying “Good”)
47% 40% 43%
28%
* *
Elites National Adults
**Source: Pew, Americans Are of Two
Minds on Trade, November 2010
November
2009
October
2010
November
2009
October
2010
** **
* Source: Pew, Support in Principle
for U.S.-EU Trade Pact, April 2014

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Colonial, Jacksonian, & Pre-Civil War America: Whigs support protectionist tariff.
Democratic Party supports low tariff,
just enough to fund government.
Civil War: Republican Party replaces Whig party
1870s to 1890s: Republican Party supports protectionist Tariff
and generally opposes free trade – popular with
industrial workers and monopolistic “Trusts.”
1913: Creation of income tax makes tariff less important
for funding federal government
Post WW2 – Cold War: Republican Party backs Free Trade
NAFTA on…: Republican Party base voters, many blue collar
white men, revert to skepticism on trade deals
based on concerns about sovereignty and
middle class jobs.
Back to the Future?

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Standard Republican Cartoon
Against Pro-Trade Democrats
in the 1880s-1890s
Tariff Act of 1890
(McKinley Tariff)
Wilson-Gorman Tariff Act of 1894
President Cleveland (D ) President McKinley (R )

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Attitudes Towards Specific Trade Agreements
Support for TTIP is positive but elites have less negative sentiment than the general populations
Support for Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership
84% 79%
7%
8%
10% 13%
85%
76%
6%
7%
8% 17%
Republican
Policy Elites
Democratic
Policy Elites
Americans Germans
53% 55%
28% 20%
20%
25%
Support for Trans-Pacific Partnership
Very bad/Somewhat bad/BadVery good/Somewhat good/Good Don’t know/refused/
Unsure/Neither
**
* Source: Pew, Support in Principle
for U.S.-EU Trade Pact, April 2014

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American View of NAFTA
The belief that NAFTA has been good for the U.S. has never been a majority view of the American population
44% 40% 35%
44% 43%
35%
21%
20%
17%
21% 25%
21%
35%
40%
48%
35% 32%
44%
In general, do you think that free trade agreements like NAFTA and the policies of the
World Trade Organization, have been a good thing or a bad thing for the United States?
December
2006
November
2007
April
2008
April
2009
November
2009
October
2010
Source: Pew, Americans Are of Two
Minds on Trade, November 2010
Don’t Know
Bad for U.S.
Good for U.S.
Americans

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Elite U.S. Support for Trade Deal Items
Elites support most of the specific items that would exist in a trade deal
43%
34% 37%
40%
40% 40%
6%
6% 4%
9%
15% 14%
1%
4% 5%
Somewhat oppose
Somewhat support
Strongly oppose
Strongly support
Don’t know/refused/
Unsure
29% 26% 31%
45%
42% 35%
6%
5% 5%
15%
17% 22%
5%
10% 7%
Making American
and European
standards for
products and
services as similar as
possible.
Making American
and European
standards for
products and
services as similar as
possible.
Removing all
restrictions on
investment between
the U.S. and the
European Union.
Removing all
restrictions on
investment between
the U.S. and the
European Union.
Removing all duties
that increase the
price of goods
imported from the
European Union.
Removing all duties
that increase the
price of goods
imported from the
European Union.
Republican
Policy Elites
Democratic
Policy Elites
Here are some things that may be part of a free trade
agreement with the European Union. Please tell me if you
support or oppose this item:
TTIP: Trans-Atlantic Perceptions, December 2014
Republican opposition
is higher on all trade
deal items.

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Here are some things that may be part of a free trade
agreement with the European Union. Please tell me if you
support or oppose this item:
Making American
and European
standards for
products and
services as similar as
possible.
35%
12% 15%
41%
27% 26%
6%
13% 10%
11%
29% 29%
7%
20% 20%
Somewhat oppose
Somewhat support
Strongly oppose
Strongly support
Don’t know/refused/
Unsure
13% 7% 12%
32%
34% 26%
4% 6% 5%
39% 41% 47%
12% 12% 10%
Making American
and European
standards for
products and
services as similar as
possible.
Removing all
restrictions on
investment between
the U.S. and the
European Union.
Removing all
restrictions on
investment between
the U.S. and the
European Union.
Removing all duties
that increase the
price of goods
imported from the
European Union.
Removing all duties
that increase the
price of goods
imported from the
U.S.
The Details: German Concern for Trade Deal Items
Despite support for free trade, there is more opposition to specific trade items from Germans than Americans
Americans Germans
Source: Pew, Support in Principle
for U.S.-EU Trade Pact, April 2014

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The View from America: Possible Problem Areas
A majority of U.S. Policy Elites think that data, food, and the environment will be the most difficult elements to
negotiate
57% 56% 58% 55% 52% 53%
48% 47%
43% 44%
Intellectual
property
Which of the following issue areas do you think will be DIFFICULT for the
United States and the European Union to reach an agreement over?
Republican
Policy Elites
Democratic
Policy Elites
Food safetyData privacy Environmental
safety
Auto safety
TTIP: Trans-Atlantic Perceptions, December 2014

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Percent who trust American/European standards for…
European Standards American StandardsBoth/Neither/Refused
29%
85%
22%
94%
27%
96%
33%
91%
23%
12%
11%
4%
12%
3%
12%
5%
49%
3%
67%
2%
60%
2%
55%
4%
Food safetyData privacy Environmental
safety
Auto safety
Whose Standards?
Americans Germans
Source: Pew, Support in Principle
for U.S.-EU Trade Pact, April 2014

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The Washington Context

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Low Expectations in Washington and Wall Street
Limiting the federal budget deficit
25%
28%
23%
23%
20%
20%
18%
16%
14%
17%
16%
13%
18%
13%
15%
14%
10%
12%
Raising the debt limit
Comprehensive immigration reform
Allowing U.S. crude oil exports
Reforming Social Security
Addressing the student debt issue
Comprehensive corporate tax reform
Blocking companies from relocating their
headquarters overseas for tax purposes
Free trade agreements with Europe
Comprehensive individual income tax reform
Legalizing marijuana
Large-scale infrastructure investments
Free trade agreements with Asia
Ending national Common Core
education standards
An end to quantitative easing
Consumer privacy protection
Creating a national exchange for greenhouse
gas emitters
Improving access to H1-B visas for highly-
skilled working professionals
39%
41%
24%
25%
20%
17%
24%
19%
16%
17%
21%
22%
18%
19%
9%
14%
9%
8%
35%
23%
25%
23%
24%
21%
16%
21%
25%
21%
15%
15%
13%
13%
15%
6%
15%
9%
Comprehensive
immigration reform is
seen as being twice as
likely as a special deal for
highly-skilled workers
seeking H1-B visas.
Republican
Policy Elites
Democratic
Policy Elites
Financial
Elites

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Partisan Gridlock
Elites forecast disagreement between the President and Congress
Over the next two years, which ONE of the
following do you believe is likely to happen?
44% 38%
46%
37% 50% 36%
19%
12% 18%
The President and Congress will generally work
together to pass legislation that helps to rebuild trust
in both parties
The President and Congress will generally spend most
of their time fighting along partisan lines to build up an
advantage for the 2016 presidential elections
The President and Congress will generally fight over
policy, but find a few opportunities to pass popular
legislation
Republican
Policy Elites
Democratic
Policy Elites
Financial
Elites

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Alternative Messages
Supporting NATO Setting Global Standards That
Promote Western Values

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Open Questions
• Is time running out to pass trade agreements as citizen skepticism
rises?
• Will support for trade increase as the economy improves in the U.S.?
• Can Republicans navigate the internal tensions within their party on
free trade?
• Can we keep the discussion on the benefits, and not the details?

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Summary
• The window for a deal may be shrinking.
• Elites are more supportive than citizens.
• Details are a communications challenge.
• Low expectations for a quick deal before 2016.
• Partisan gridlock in Washington, DC, is lowering expectations.
• Is Republican skepticism toward free trade a historical reversion to
a traditional (pre-World War Two) focus on protecting domestic
industry and focusing on the Western Hemisphere?

28. Robert Moran
Partner, Brunswick Insight
Washington, DC
P: +1.202.393.7337
E: RMoran@BrunswickGroup.com