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Screen digest Ronan de Renesse
- 2. Application store/smartphone combination
revolutionised mobile media
• Smartphones offer better tech for rich
media co su pt o o mobile (
ed a consumption on ob e (WiFi, ,
memory, processing, power, screen
size)
• Applications stores have broken
operators’ walled-gardens and fuelled
innovation
• Improved browsing experience has
brought online and mobile together
Android Market
• Remaining issues:
• Addressable market still small
• Monetisation can be difficult
• Over crowded market place
• Device fragmentation
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 2
- 3. UK leads European smartphone market
EU5: Smartphone installed base (m) iOS installed base by country (m)
180 20
18
160
16
140
14
120 12
10
100
8
80
6
60 4
40 2
0
20
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
France Germany Italy Spain UK 2011 2014
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 3
- 4. Smartphone market was a three-horse race
Europe: 2010 smartphone installed Europe: 2015 smartphone installed
base market share by OS (%) base market share by OS (%)
3.7% 5.1%
4.0%
7.9%
22.9%
0.3%
6.0% 32.7%
38.3%
20.2%
47.9%
11.0%
iPhone Android BlackBerry iPhone Android BlackBerry
Symbian Windows Others Symbian Windows Others
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 4
- 5. Apple dominates 2010 app revenues
2010: leading application stores' share • Apple’s App Store took 82.5% of
pp pp
of revenues (%) - total €1 6bn
€1.6bn
revenues from the four leading stores
7.6% in 2010 with revenues of €1.3bn.
4.9% Apple will maintain its lead with
5.0%
5 0%
around 60% market share among g
leading stores to 2014.
• In January 2011, Apple passed 10bn
total downloads. By May 2011
downloads 2011,
Google had served 4.5bn – with
Nokia and RIM some distance
82.5% behind.
Apple: App Store
• Despite growth in downloads, Google
Google: Android Market
has so far struggled to monetise
Nokia: Ovi Store
many Android Market users. But
y
RIM: BlackBerry App World
improvements are on the way.
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 5
- 6. …but Android Market will catch-up fairly
q
quickly
y
Application stores revenue forecast (€bn)
7
6
5
4 Blackberry App World
Nokia Ovi Store
3 Google Android Market
Apple App Store
2
1
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 6
- 8. Games is the leading app category
World App Store downloads (bn)
Q1 2011: major publishers’ iOS
10 releases
9
EA Mobile
8
Capcom
7
Glu Mobile
6
Gameloft
5
Digital Chocolate
4
Namco
3
Hands-On Mobile
2
Disney Mobile
1
0 THQ Wireless
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
0 2 4 6 8 10
Games Others
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
- 9. The application market goes beyond
distributing repurposed content to mobile
g p p
Number of apps by TV network
• For TV companies, mobile applications offer the (total = 78)
opportunity to:
t it t
• increase the length of the relationship with MTV NBC
consumers by making content accessible anywhere
at anytime
• create a more intimate contact with the audience with Fox Disney
interactive features evolving around key TV CBS
programmes
• improve brand image by creating ‘cool’ apps
p g y g pp Number of apps by g
pp y genre
Sports
• increase viewership and address an audience Travel
unreachable on any other platforms
• generate additional revenues through paid News
Games
downloads/subscriptions and/or advertising
• Popular applications tend to be more innovative
Lifestyle
by taking advantage of the mobile experience to Entertainment
bring another dimension to existing services. Finance
Others
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 9
- 10. Online freemium music providers see
mobile as a way to improve their business
case
• Spotify, Deezer both launched
mobile applications on Android
and iPhone/iPod Touch in 2009
• Spotify: 1m paying subs from
6.7m active users in a region
g
resistant to paying for music
i t tt i f i
• Deezer: 800,000 paying
subscribers
• Mobile operators embrace the
unlimited music on-demand craze
• 3UK bundled a Spotify premium
subscription with its latest Android
handset
• Orange made a strategic investment
in Deezer in 2010 and also bundles it
with some of its services
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 10
- 11. But, rich media is still only a small subset of
mobile content and data revenues
Rich media as % of data & content revenues
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Music Games TV & Video Application stores
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 11
- 12. Mobile won’t offset decline in traditional
media revenue streams unless bundled
Top-tier customer
Piracy migration
Over-the-top Increased ARPU
Core Core
media Increased media Core Customer ownership
services p
competition services media Blended
ARPU ARPU services ARPU
Reduced churn
Tougher ARPU
regulation
Added value
Mobile ARPU
Differentiation
Mobile ARPU
Mobile ARPU
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 12
- 13. The mobile data crunch. Who will pay for
data?
• Smartphones, mobile broadband and UK mobile data market
M2M are set to drive exponential 900 14
mobile data traffic growth
800
12
• Increasing competition and heavy 700
subsidies on data/smartphone 10
bundles will endanger mobile data
Revenu per GB (£)
600
monetisation
affic (PB)
500 8
ue
• There are three options for operators: 400
Tra
6
• Add extra capacity on the network and
increase prices 300
4
• Content delivery optimisation (IMB,
200
throttling, QoS, WiFi)
• Ch
Charge content providers ( bil d
id (mobile data 100
2
termination fees)
0 0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
• Video is set to contribute to more
than half of mobile data traffic by Smart phones Mobile Broadband Revenue per GB
2015
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 13
- 14. Tablets: similar apps but better monetisation
- US case studyy
US: top grossing iPad apps
US: average price per paid game ($)
1% 1% 2% 1% 2%
1%
0.3% 3% 4
4% 4%
4%
0.3% 3%
3.5
3%
4% 3
1%
1%
2%
2.5
63%
2
1.5
Books Business Education
Entertainment Games Healthcare & Fitness 1
Lifestyle Medical Music
Navigation News Photography 0.5
Productivity Reference Social Networking
Sports
S t Travel
T l Utilities
Utiliti 0
Weather iPhone iPad
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 14