You don't have to be convinced that climate change is taking place or that it's the fault of human beings to recognize that extreme weather and climat

1. DEALING WITH MOTHER NATURE'S
ATTITUDE PROBLEM
Brian Gongol
DJ Gongol & Associates, Inc.
March 17, 2015
Nebraska Rural Water Association
Grand Island, Nebraska

2. Q1: Is the climate changing?

3. Q2: Are people are causing global warming?

4. Some climate change appears clear

5. Humans are probably 100% responsible
for 50% of the observed changes

6. The other 50% may be out of our hands

7. BUT...it doesn't matter.
 You don't have to believe in man-made climate change to do
some smart planning for climate and weather uncertainty

8. What does uncertainty look like?

9. Mass-impact events can happen anytime

10. Far-out influences: Sunspots and solar flares

11. Even more far-out: Meteor strikes
 It happened in Manson, Iowa
 74 million years ago
 Creating a crater 23 miles across
 And in Russia
 In 2014
 Causing 1,000 injuries

12. Even more far-out: Meteor strikes
556 recorded events between 1994 and 2013

13. Threats of everything from heat waves to ice ages

14. What else could happen?

15. We used to worry about nuclear winter

16. Nuclear winter: Extinct? Volcanoes: Not.

17. The year without a summer (1816)
 Miniature ice age (cyclical event)
 Tambora volcano (freak event)
 Together equals a year with no growing season

18. Icelandic volcano (2010)
Remember how to say Eyjafjallajökull?

19. Domestic volcanoes
 Yellowstone
 Pacific Northwest
 California
 Hawaii

20. And there's always El Nino

21. We face non-greenhouse-gas risks all the time
But for planning purposes,
let's start with the risks
for which we have
readily-available tools

22. EPA forecasts for Nebraska
 Wetter Dakotas
 More frequent flooding
 Deeper droughts
 Lower soil moisture
 Greater aquifer depletion

23. Maybe we haven't measured long enough

24. Local data only goes back about 150 years

25. Maybe measurements haven't been accurate

26. Maybe we're all wrong

27. Climate preparedness tools can
overlap with terrorism preparedness

28. Any good preparation results in some waste

29. Remember the ozone layer?

30. Prepare!
If you're not preparing for things
that don't end up happening,
you haven't prepared enough

31. How to accommodate uncertainty

32. Examine the full range of possible outcomes

33. Prepare for all extremes
Consider both
impact and probability

34. Too much precipitation?

35. Too little precipitation?

36. Wrong type of precipitation?

37. Too much heat?

38. Too little heat?

39. Heat or cold at the wrong times?

40. How do extremes affect major water uses?

41. Agriculture/irrigation

42. Power production

43. Reservoirs

44. Ethanol and biodiesel production

45. Industrial use

46. Residential use

47. Microclimate issues

48. "Global" warming is too much, too daunting

49. Think on a local scale

50. Is land use changing?

51. Do you have heat islands?

52. How much safety factor around cones of depression?

53. Where is the groundwater and where could it go?

54. Where is the surface water and where could it go?

55. Test some what-if scenarios

56. What if: More snowstorms?

57. What if: More ice storms?

58. What if: More intense spring storms?

59. What if: Summer drought is the new normal?

60. What if: Fall lasts later in the year?

61. Special considerations in Nebraska

62. Republican River allocations
 More than $3 million spent on the legal fight
 Kansas won $5.5 million award

63. Recent history
 2006: 4th-driest May, 2nd-wettest December
 2007: 3rd-driest November
 2008: Heavy rainfall
 2009: 3rd-wettest October
 2010: Major summer flooding
 2011: Record-breaking Missouri River flooding
 2012: Driest year in Nebraska history
 2013: October tornadoes (EF-4 in Wayne)
 2014: Bitter extended winter, Pilger tornado cluster
 2015: To be determined...

64. Platte River flooding during 2013 drought

65. Missouri River extremes, navigation, and ecosystem

66. Shifting wind patterns and the Sand Hills

67. Downpours on flat lands

68. Other special regional considerations

69. Drought magnifies nitrate runoff

70. Dry land means shifting pipes and settlement

71. Harsh winter cycles challenge pipes

72. Long droughts expose shallow wells

73. Extraordinary flooding overtakes wells

74. Factors to consider

75. How robust is your system?
 The Chumbawamba effect

76. Have you considered all 81 possibilities?

77. Have you run any Monte Carlo simulations?

78. What about streaks of bad luck?

79. Have you considered "black swan" events?

80. Channel your inner Donald Rumsfeld
 Consider known
unknowns
 Expect unknown
unknowns

81. What tipping points would challenge your system?

82. Are you at the unstable top of a hill
or the stable bottom of the valley?

83. Costs of preparedness

84. Borrowing will never be cheaper

85. Will DC distribute more or less funding?

86. Are you charging appropriate user fees?

87. Is there literally enough for a rainy day?

88. Or a droughty day?

89. Will taxes support your efforts?

90. Be broad about causes, specific on solutions
 Don't let a political debate over climate change stifle
planning for inevitable uncertain events

91. You can't single-handedly fix climate change

92. But you might...

93. Ensure well security against future droughts

94. Upgrade distribution to handle harsh winters

95. Anticipate strain on rivers and aquifers

96. Plan for worst-case nitrate runoff scenarios

97. Don't try everything at once
There are enough scenarios and possibilities
to take them one per week

98. With or without global warming...
You don't have to believe
in man-made climate change
to make good use of the tools

99. EPA tools for climate change
Or just Mother Nature's attitude problem

100. Adaptation Tools for Public Officials
 http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/impacts-
adaptation/adapt-tools.html
 Lots of links all in one place

101. Adaptation Strategies Guide for Water Utilities
 http://water.epa.gov/infrastructure/watersecurity/climate/u
pload/epa817k11003.pdf
 Long, but sections are devoted to individual regions

102. Flood resilience guidebook
 http://water.epa.gov/infrastructure/watersecurity/emerplan/
upload/epa817b14006.pdf
 Probably good for every utility with a nearby river

103. Map of expected climate change effects
 http://water.epa.gov/infrastructure/watersecurity/climate/sc
enario.cfm
 Interactive drill-down to your community

104. Vulnerability Self-Assessment Tool
 http://water.epa.gov/infrastructure/watersecurity/techtools/
vsat.cfm
 "EPA strongly encourages water and wastewater utility
owners and operators to use VSAT 6.0 to conduct or
update an all-hazards risk assessment"

105. Questions?
 Thank you for coming!  Brian Gongol
 DJ Gongol & Associates
 515-223-4144
 brian@djgongol.com
 Twitter: @briangongol
 Twitter: @djgongol

106. References and credits
 Human impact on climate change:
 http://arstechnica.com/science/2013/09/ipcc-climate-change-report-is-out-its-warmer-and-were-responsible/
 http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WG1AR5_Headlines.pdf
 Tambora volcano:
 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/car/Newsletter/htm_format_articles/climate_corner/yearwithoutsummer_lf.htm
 Ice Age/Chicago Tribune headline:
 http://archives.chicagotribune.com/1979/01/14/page/4/article/were-slipping-into-an-ice-age/index.html
 Asteroid map:
 http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view.php?id=84763
 Manson impact crater:
 http://www.iihr.uiowa.edu/igs/meteorites-in-iowa/
 Russian asteroid in 2014:
 http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-23/asteroid-samples-analysed-after-earth-collision/5472798
 Icelandic flag:
 https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ic.html
 El Nino map:
 http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/
 Republican River dispute:
 http://www.kearneyhub.com/news/regional_news/m-spent-by-nebraska-in-republican-river-basin-fight/article_61a43903-0bb3-5f07-89c3-0ebebfa56b6e.html
 http://www.omaha.com/news/nebraska/nebraska-considered-big-winner-in-river-dispute-with-kansas-despite/article_7dec6af2-bc3b-11e4-baa8-d705578bcee6.html
 Solar flare image:
 http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/News062013-cme.html#.Um3mcPnksrU
 Ozone hole image:
 http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/Scripts/big_image.php?date=2006-09-24&hem=S
 Federal funds rate graph:
 http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FEDFUNDS/
 Earth from space:
 http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view.php?id=57723
 Wayne tornado in 2014:
 http://www.crh.noaa.gov/oax/?n=surveyresultsfromwayne,netornado
 Climate records:
 http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/climatological-rankings/
 Donald Rumsfeld:
 https://www.dvidshub.net/image/33935/rumsfeld-visits-troops-farewell-visit#.VQERtI54o3U
 Groundwater map:
 http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov/StateMap.asp?sa=NE&sc=31
 All other photos are copyright Brian Gongol