4. Motivating the topic: Risk and Return
The relationship between risk and return is
fundamental to finance theory
4
5. Motivating the topic: Risk and Return
The relationship between risk and return is
fundamental to finance theory
You can invest very safely in a bank or in
Treasury bills. Why would you invest in
risky stocks and bonds?
5
6. Motivating the topic: Risk and Return
The relationship between risk and return is
fundamental to finance theory
You can invest very safely in a bank or in
Treasury bills. Why would you invest in
risky stocks and bonds?
If you want the chance of earning higher
returns, it requires that you take on higher risk
investments
6
7. Motivating the topic: Risk and Return
The relationship between risk and return is
fundamental to finance theory
You can invest very safely in a bank or in
Treasury bills. Why would you invest in
risky stocks and bonds?
If you want the chance of earning higher
returns, it requires that you take on higher risk
investments
There is a positive relationship between
risk and return
7
11. Historical Returns
Ending Price -Beginning Price Dividend
Percentage Return
Beginning Price Beginning Price
Percentage Return Capital Gains Yield Dividend Yield
Example: You held 250 shares of Hilton Hotel‟s
common stock. The company‟s share price was
$24.11 at the beginning of the year. During the year,
the company paid a dividend of $0.16 per share, and
ended the year at a price of $34.90. What is the
dollar return, the percentage return, the capital gains
yield, and the dividend yield for Hilton?
11
18. Volatility
High volatility in historical returns are an
indication that future returns will be volatile
18
19. Volatility
High volatility in historical returns are an
indication that future returns will be volatile
One popular way of quantifying volatility is to
compute the standard deviation of percentage
returns
19
20. Volatility
High volatility in historical returns are an
indication that future returns will be volatile
One popular way of quantifying volatility is to
compute the standard deviation of percentage
returns
Standard deviation is a measure of total risk
20
21. Volatility
High volatility in historical returns are an
indication that future returns will be volatile
One popular way of quantifying volatility is to
compute the standard deviation of percentage
returns
Standard deviation is a measure of total risk
A large standard deviation indicates greater
return variability, or high risk
21
22. Volatility
High volatility in historical returns are an
indication that future returns will be volatile
One popular way of quantifying volatility is to
compute the standard deviation of percentage
returns
Standard deviation is a measure of total risk
A large standard deviation indicates greater
return variability, or high risk
N
2
(Return t
- Average Return)
t 1
Standard Deviation
N -1
22
24. Volatility - Example
Example:
Using the following returns, calculate the average
return, the variance, and the standard deviation for
Acme stock.
24
25. Volatility - Example
Example:
Using the following returns, calculate the average
return, the variance, and the standard deviation for
Acme stock.
Year Acme
1 10%
2 4
3 -8
4 13
5 5
25
32. Volatility - Application
The volatility of stocks is much higher than the
volatility of bonds and T-bills
32
33. Volatility - Application
The volatility of stocks is much higher than the
volatility of bonds and T-bills
Different periods had differing levels of volatility
for the same asset class
33
35. Diversifying risk: Portfolios
In the beginning of the lecture we saw that
higher risks must come with (the potential for)
higher returns.
35
36. Diversifying risk: Portfolios
In the beginning of the lecture we saw that
higher risks must come with (the potential for)
higher returns.
More volatile stocks should have, on average,
higher returns.
36
37. Diversifying risk: Portfolios
In the beginning of the lecture we saw that
higher risks must come with (the potential for)
higher returns.
More volatile stocks should have, on average,
higher returns.
We can reduce volatility for a given level of
return by grouping assets into portfolios
37
38. Diversifying risk: Portfolios
In the beginning of the lecture we saw that
higher risks must come with (the potential for)
higher returns.
More volatile stocks should have, on average,
higher returns.
We can reduce volatility for a given level of
return by grouping assets into portfolios
This is known as “diversifying risk”
38
40. Diversifying risk: Example
In a given year a particular pharmaceutical
company may fail in getting approval of a new
drug, thus causing its stock price to drop.
40
41. Diversifying risk: Example
In a given year a particular pharmaceutical
company may fail in getting approval of a new
drug, thus causing its stock price to drop.
But it is unlikely that every pharmaceutical
company will fail major drug trials in the same
year.
41
42. Diversifying risk: Example
In a given year a particular pharmaceutical
company may fail in getting approval of a new
drug, thus causing its stock price to drop.
But it is unlikely that every pharmaceutical
company will fail major drug trials in the same
year.
On average, some are likely to be successful
while others will fail.
42
43. Diversifying risk: Example
In a given year a particular pharmaceutical
company may fail in getting approval of a new
drug, thus causing its stock price to drop.
But it is unlikely that every pharmaceutical
company will fail major drug trials in the same
year.
On average, some are likely to be successful
while others will fail.
Therefore, the returns for a portfolio comprised of
all drug companies will have much less volatility
than that of a single drug company.
43
45. Diversifying risk: Example
(cont‟d)
By holding stock in the entire sector of
pharmaceuticals we have eliminated quite a bit of
risk as just described.
45
46. Diversifying risk: Example
(cont‟d)
By holding stock in the entire sector of
pharmaceuticals we have eliminated quite a bit of
risk as just described.
But it‟s possible there is sector-level risk that may
impact all drug companies.
46
47. Diversifying risk: Example
(cont‟d)
By holding stock in the entire sector of
pharmaceuticals we have eliminated quite a bit of
risk as just described.
But it‟s possible there is sector-level risk that may
impact all drug companies.
For example, if the FDA changes its drug-
approval policy and requires all new drugs to go
through more strict testing we would expect the
entire sector – and our portfolio comprised of all
pharmaceutical companies – to suffer.
47
48. Diversifying risk: Example
(cont‟d)
By holding stock in the entire sector of
pharmaceuticals we have eliminated quite a bit of
risk as just described.
But it‟s possible there is sector-level risk that may
impact all drug companies.
For example, if the FDA changes its drug-
approval policy and requires all new drugs to go
through more strict testing we would expect the
entire sector – and our portfolio comprised of all
pharmaceutical companies – to suffer.
But what if we held a portfolio of not just
pharmaceuticals but also of computer companies,
48 manufacturing companies, service companies
50. Diversifying risk: Example
(cont‟d)
We would expect this expanded portfolio to be
even less risky than a portfolio comprised of
just one sector.
50
51. Diversifying risk: Example
(cont‟d)
We would expect this expanded portfolio to be
even less risky than a portfolio comprised of
just one sector.
In fact, we can imagine a market-level
portfolio comprised of all assets.
51
52. Diversifying risk: Example
(cont‟d)
We would expect this expanded portfolio to be
even less risky than a portfolio comprised of
just one sector.
In fact, we can imagine a market-level
portfolio comprised of all assets.
Such a market portfolio would still have
uncertainty and risk but it would be greatly
reduced compared to just one asset or even a
group of related assets
52
53. Diversifying risk: Example
(cont‟d)
We would expect this expanded portfolio to be
even less risky than a portfolio comprised of
just one sector.
In fact, we can imagine a market-level
portfolio comprised of all assets.
Such a market portfolio would still have
uncertainty and risk but it would be greatly
reduced compared to just one asset or even a
group of related assets
We can then think of risk as having two
53
components:
54. Diversifying risk: Example
(cont‟d)
We would expect this expanded portfolio to be
even less risky than a portfolio comprised of
just one sector.
In fact, we can imagine a market-level
portfolio comprised of all assets.
Such a market portfolio would still have
uncertainty and risk but it would be greatly
reduced compared to just one asset or even a
group of related assets
We can then think of risk as having two
54
components:
Firm-specific risk (or asset-specific risk)
55. Diversifying risk: Example
(cont‟d)
We would expect this expanded portfolio to be
even less risky than a portfolio comprised of
just one sector.
In fact, we can imagine a market-level
portfolio comprised of all assets.
Such a market portfolio would still have
uncertainty and risk but it would be greatly
reduced compared to just one asset or even a
group of related assets
We can then think of risk as having two
55
components:
Firm-specific risk (or asset-specific risk)
66. Diversifying risk: Conclusions
Investors are only compensated for risks their
bear.
Any risks which can be diversified away will not
be compensated.
66
67. Diversifying risk: Conclusions
Investors are only compensated for risks their
bear.
Any risks which can be diversified away will not
be compensated.
We want to understand how to create portfolios
which produce the maximum risk diversification.
67
68. Diversifying risk: Conclusions
Investors are only compensated for risks their
bear.
Any risks which can be diversified away will not
be compensated.
We want to understand how to create portfolios
which produce the maximum risk diversification.
We call such portfolios, “optimal portfolios”
68
70. Optimal Portfolios
A portfolio is a collection of assets (stocks, bonds,
real estate, etc.)
70
71. Optimal Portfolios
A portfolio is a collection of assets (stocks, bonds,
real estate, etc.)
Holding different combinations of assets results in
different risk and return characteristics.
71
72. Optimal Portfolios
A portfolio is a collection of assets (stocks, bonds,
real estate, etc.)
Holding different combinations of assets results in
different risk and return characteristics.
We can construct portfolios with “optimal” levels
of return for a given level of risk.
72
73. Optimal Portfolios
A portfolio is a collection of assets (stocks, bonds,
real estate, etc.)
Holding different combinations of assets results in
different risk and return characteristics.
We can construct portfolios with “optimal” levels
of return for a given level of risk.
We call such portfolios, “efficient portfolios”
73
76. Optimal Portfolios
The curve drawn through all the efficient portfolios
is known as the “Efficiency Frontier”
76
77. Optimal Portfolios
The curve drawn through all the efficient portfolios
is known as the “Efficiency Frontier”
We will come back to this later.
77
79. How does diversification work?
Diversification comes when stocks are subject to
different kinds of events such that their returns
differ over time, i.e. the stock‟s returns are not
perfectly correlated. Their price movements often
counteract each other
79
80. How does diversification work?
Diversification comes when stocks are subject to
different kinds of events such that their returns
differ over time, i.e. the stock‟s returns are not
perfectly correlated. Their price movements often
counteract each other
By contrast, if two stocks are perfectly positively
correlated, diversification has no effect on risk.
80
82. Risk Premium
We have previously said that the higher the
risk an investment is, the higher the return it
needs to offer.
82
83. Risk Premium
We have previously said that the higher the
risk an investment is, the higher the return it
needs to offer.
We can re-state this concept in the following
way:
83
84. Risk Premium
We have previously said that the higher the
risk an investment is, the higher the return it
needs to offer.
We can re-state this concept in the following
way:
An investment in a risk-free US Treasury bill offers a
low return with no risk
84
85. Risk Premium
We have previously said that the higher the
risk an investment is, the higher the return it
needs to offer.
We can re-state this concept in the following
way:
An investment in a risk-free US Treasury bill offers a
low return with no risk
Investors who take on risk expect a higher return
compared to this risk-free opportunity, therefore:
85
86. Risk Premium
We have previously said that the higher the
risk an investment is, the higher the return it
needs to offer.
We can re-state this concept in the following
way:
An investment in a risk-free US Treasury bill offers a
low return with no risk
Investors who take on risk expect a higher return
compared to this risk-free opportunity, therefore:
Required Return = Risk-free Rate + Risk
Premium
86
87. Risk Premium
We have previously said that the higher the
risk an investment is, the higher the return it
needs to offer.
We can re-state this concept in the following
way:
An investment in a risk-free US Treasury bill offers a
low return with no risk
Investors who take on risk expect a higher return
compared to this risk-free opportunity, therefore:
Required Return = Risk-free Rate + Risk
Premium
87
The risk-free rate equals the real interest rate and expected
88. Risk Premium
We have previously said that the higher the
risk an investment is, the higher the return it
needs to offer.
We can re-state this concept in the following
way:
An investment in a risk-free US Treasury bill offers a
low return with no risk
Investors who take on risk expect a higher return
compared to this risk-free opportunity, therefore:
Required Return = Risk-free Rate + Risk
Premium
The risk-free rate equals the real interest rate and expected
inflation
88
Typically considered the return on U.S. government
90. Risk Premium
The risk premium is the reward investors require
for taking risk
90
91. Risk Premium
The risk premium is the reward investors require
for taking risk
But the market doesn‟t reward all risks
91
92. Risk Premium
The risk premium is the reward investors require
for taking risk
But the market doesn‟t reward all risks
Since the firm-specific portion of risk can be
diversified away, an efficient market will not
reward investors for taking this risk
92
93. Risk Premium
The risk premium is the reward investors require
for taking risk
But the market doesn‟t reward all risks
Since the firm-specific portion of risk can be
diversified away, an efficient market will not
reward investors for taking this risk
The market rewards only the remaining risk after
the firm-specific risk is diversified away: the
market risk
93
97. CAPM
We can combine our concepts of optimal
portfolios, the efficiency frontier and risk premium
to create a theory seeking to relate an asset‟s risk
characteristics to its required risk premium (i.e.
it‟s return)
97
98. CAPM
We can combine our concepts of optimal
portfolios, the efficiency frontier and risk premium
to create a theory seeking to relate an asset‟s risk
characteristics to its required risk premium (i.e.
it‟s return)
Such a theory is called an “asset pricing theory”
98
99. CAPM
We can combine our concepts of optimal
portfolios, the efficiency frontier and risk premium
to create a theory seeking to relate an asset‟s risk
characteristics to its required risk premium (i.e.
it‟s return)
Such a theory is called an “asset pricing theory”
The most famous asset pricing theory is the
Capital Asset Pricing Model (or CAPM)
99
100. CAPM
We can combine our concepts of optimal
portfolios, the efficiency frontier and risk premium
to create a theory seeking to relate an asset‟s risk
characteristics to its required risk premium (i.e.
it‟s return)
Such a theory is called an “asset pricing theory”
The most famous asset pricing theory is the
Capital Asset Pricing Model (or CAPM)
100
102. CAPM
We saw how we can construct an efficiency
frontier comprised of „efficient portfolios.‟
102
103. CAPM
We saw how we can construct an efficiency
frontier comprised of „efficient portfolios.‟
Each portfolio combines a group of assets in such
a way that they provide the highest expected
return for a given level of risk.
103
104. CAPM
We saw how we can construct an efficiency
frontier comprised of „efficient portfolios.‟
Each portfolio combines a group of assets in such
a way that they provide the highest expected
return for a given level of risk.
104
106. CAPM
The horizontal axis in this example starts at 10%
risk (the standard deviation or volatility)
106
107. CAPM
The horizontal axis in this example starts at 10%
risk (the standard deviation or volatility)
But we could modify this graph – and our portfolio
– by including some amount of the risk-free asset.
107
110. CAPM
The top graph is
simply the Efficiency
frontier from the prior
slide.
110
111. CAPM
The top graph is
simply the Efficiency
frontier from the prior
slide.
The bottom graph
now includes the risk-
free asset and the
efficiency frontier.
111
112. CAPM
The top graph is
simply the Efficiency
frontier from the prior
slide.
The bottom graph
now includes the risk-
free asset and the
efficiency frontier.
We can imagine a line
being drawn that
starts at the risk-free
asset and running
tangent to the
112 efficiency frontier
113. CAPM
The top graph is simply
the Efficiency frontier
from the prior slide.
The bottom graph now
includes the risk-free
asset and the efficiency
frontier.
We can imagine a line
being drawn that starts
at the risk-free asset
and running tangent to
the efficiency frontier
Such a line is known as
the Capital Market Line
(CML).
113
116. CAPM
By using holding some
combination of the risk-free
asset and an optimal portfolio
we can maximize our
expected return.
116
117. CAPM
By using holding some
combination of the risk-free
asset and an optimal portfolio
we can maximize our
expected return.
Such returns reside on the
Capital Market Line.
117
118. CAPM
By using holding some
combination of the risk-free
asset and an optimal portfolio
we can maximize our
expected return.
Such returns reside on the
Capital Market Line.
The CML demonstrates that
an investor will hold the
market portfolio. Since such
an investor will be fully
diversified, the only relevant
risk is market risk.
118
120. CAPM
Since the investor has only market risk, it would be
desirable to have a measure of risk that measured
only market risk
120
121. CAPM
Since the investor has only market risk, it would be
desirable to have a measure of risk that measured
only market risk
Such as measure is called beta (β):
121
122. CAPM
Since the investor has only market risk, it would be
desirable to have a measure of risk that measured
only market risk
Such as measure is called beta (β):
Required Return = Rf + β(Risk PremuimMarket)
122
123. CAPM
Since the investor has only market risk, it would be
desirable to have a measure of risk that measured
only market risk
Such as measure is called beta (β):
Required Return = Rf + β(Risk PremuimMarket)
Required Return = Rf + β(RM – Rf)
123
125. CAPM
Beta measures the co-movement between a stock
and the market portfolio
125
126. CAPM
Beta measures the co-movement between a stock
and the market portfolio
The beta of the overall market is 1
126
127. CAPM
Beta measures the co-movement between a stock
and the market portfolio
The beta of the overall market is 1
Stocks with betas greater than 1 are considered
riskier than the market portfolio and are called
aggressive stocks
127
128. CAPM
Beta measures the co-movement between a stock
and the market portfolio
The beta of the overall market is 1
Stocks with betas greater than 1 are considered
riskier than the market portfolio and are called
aggressive stocks
Stocks with betas less than 1 are less risky than the
market portfolio and are called defensive stocks
128
131. CAPM
The CAPM equation allows us to estimate any stock‟s
required return once we have determined the stock‟s
beta, risk-free rate and market-risk premium.
131
132. CAPM
The CAPM equation allows us to estimate any stock‟s
required return once we have determined the stock‟s
beta, risk-free rate and market-risk premium.
CAPM Equation is:
Required Return = Rf + β(RM – Rf)
132
133. CAPM
The CAPM equation allows us to estimate any stock‟s
required return once we have determined the stock‟s
beta, risk-free rate and market-risk premium.
CAPM Equation is:
Required Return = Rf + β(RM – Rf)
Example:
133
134. CAPM
The CAPM equation allows us to estimate any stock‟s
required return once we have determined the stock‟s
beta, risk-free rate and market-risk premium.
CAPM Equation is:
Required Return = Rf + β(RM – Rf)
Example:
Let‟s say we expect the market portfolio to earn 12%,
and T-bill yields are 5%. Home Depot has a beta of
1.08. Calculate Home Depot‟s required return
134
135. CAPM
The CAPM equation allows us to estimate any stock‟s
required return once we have determined the stock‟s
beta, risk-free rate and market-risk premium.
CAPM Equation is:
Required Return = Rf + β(RM – Rf)
Example:
Let‟s say we expect the market portfolio to earn 12%,
and T-bill yields are 5%. Home Depot has a beta of
1.08. Calculate Home Depot‟s required return
Required Return = 5% + 1.08(12% - 5%) = 12.56%
135
138. CAPM
Finding Beta
The easiest way to find betas is to look them up.
Many companies provide betas:
138
139. CAPM
Finding Beta
The easiest way to find betas is to look them up.
Many companies provide betas:
Value Line Investment Survey
Hoovers
MSN Money
Yahoo! Finance
Zacks
139
140. CAPM
Finding Beta
The easiest way to find betas is to look them up.
Many companies provide betas:
Value Line Investment Survey
Hoovers
MSN Money
Yahoo! Finance
Zacks
You can also calculate beta for yourself
140
142. Caveats
Measures of betas for a given asset can vary
depending on how it is calculated
142
143. Caveats
Measures of betas for a given asset can vary
depending on how it is calculated
The “risk / return” relationship rests on the
assumption that the stock (or asset) is priced
“correctly”
143
144. Caveats
Measures of betas for a given asset can vary
depending on how it is calculated
The “risk / return” relationship rests on the
assumption that the stock (or asset) is priced
“correctly”
This in turn, requires that asset markets price
assets correctly
144
145. Caveats
Measures of betas for a given asset can vary
depending on how it is calculated
The “risk / return” relationship rests on the
assumption that the stock (or asset) is priced
“correctly”
This in turn, requires that asset markets price
assets correctly
Given historical events and other evidence, there
are reasons to question how “efficient” markets
are at pricing an asset at its true price
145
147. Summary
We need the expectation of extra reward for
taking on more risk
147
148. Summary
We need the expectation of extra reward for
taking on more risk
An asset‟s risk premium is the additional
compensation required above the risk-free rate
for holding that asset
148
149. Summary
We need the expectation of extra reward for
taking on more risk
An asset‟s risk premium is the additional
compensation required above the risk-free rate
for holding that asset
At the market level, the market risk premium is
the additional return above the risk-free rate to
hold the market portfolio
149
150. Summary
We need the expectation of extra reward for
taking on more risk
An asset‟s risk premium is the additional
compensation required above the risk-free rate
for holding that asset
At the market level, the market risk premium is
the additional return above the risk-free rate to
hold the market portfolio
For a given asset, the CAPM will tell us how much
return we will require for holding that asset relative to
the risk free rate and market portfolio
150
151. Summary
We need the expectation of extra reward for
taking on more risk
An asset‟s risk premium is the additional
compensation required above the risk-free rate
for holding that asset
At the market level, the market risk premium is
the additional return above the risk-free rate to
hold the market portfolio
For a given asset, the CAPM will tell us how much
return we will require for holding that asset relative to
the risk free rate and market portfolio
Required Return = Rf + β(RM – Rf)
151
152. Summary
We need the expectation of extra reward for
taking on more risk
An asset‟s risk premium is the additional
compensation required above the risk-free rate
for holding that asset
At the market level, the market risk premium is
the additional return above the risk-free rate to
hold the market portfolio
For a given asset, the CAPM will tell us how much
return we will require for holding that asset relative to
the risk free rate and market portfolio
Required Return = Rf + β(RM – Rf)
152