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Gujarat Mineral Development Crop Ltd.
                                                                                                                                            BUY

 Target Price ` 255                 CMP ` 187                                                                       FY14 EV/EBITDA 4.8x

          Index Details            We initiate coverage on Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation
 Sensex              16,877        Ltd (GMDC) as a BUY with a Price Objective of `255 (target 6.5x
 Nifty                 5,118       FY14 EV/EBITDA). At CMP of `187, the stock is trading at 5.9x and
 BSE 100              5,131        4.8x its EV/EBITDA estimated for FY13 & FY14 respectively,
 Industry            COAL          representing a potential upside of ~36% over a period of 18
                                   months. Led by uptick in lignite volumes, price hikes, growth in
          Scrip Details            bauxite business and possible turnaround in the power segment,
 Mkt Cap (` cr)        5,947
                                   we expect GMDC’s revenues and earnings to post a CAGR of
 BVPS (`)                 64.3
                                   27.1% and 23.7% to `2636.2 crore and `745.3 crore, respectively
                                   by FY14. Being the sole trader of lignite and other minerals in the
 O/s Shares (Cr)          31.8
                                   state of Gujarat, GMDC enjoys assured off-take and significant
 Av Vol (Lacs)             0.9
                                   pricing power, thereby ensuring long term revenue visibility.
 52 Week H/L         213/151
 Div Yield (%)            1.5      Visibility of higher lignite volume and pricing power provides




                                                                                                                                                    STOCK POINTER
 FVPS (`)                  2.0      significant revenue and earnings growth
                                   On the back of commencement of new lignite mines and the management's ability to
   Shareholding Pattern            scale up production at the existing mines, GMDC's lignite segment has witnessed a
                                   robust production growth of ~7.3% CAGR over the period of 5 years from 2007 to
 Shareholders              %       2012. Going forward, we expect this segment to grow at a CAGR of 13.5% from
 Promoters                74.0     FY12-FY14 aided by the commissioning of the new mine - Umarsar and healthy
 DIIs                     12.8     production growth from existing mines. Additionally, on the back of being the sole
                                   player and absence of coal mines in the region of Gujarat, GMDC enjoys significant
 FIIs                     6.8
                                   pricing power. This can be reiterated from the fact that GMDC has been able to
 Public                   6.5      increase lignite prices at a CAGR of 14.5% since FY07-FY12, enabling it to easily
 Total                    100      offset cost pressures.

        GMDC. vs. Sensex
                                   Power business-worst already factored in
                                   Due to technical and operational issues at its 250 MW (Kutch, Gujarat) lignite based
                                   thermal power plant, GMDC has seen a sharp decline in its PLF (40%) leading to
                                   lower revenues. The company is facing issues with the bellow in the boiler, which
                                   has been replaced 19 times till date. However, with current replacement working
                                   properly and plans to outsource O&M operations, we expect the loss making power
                                   business to stage a turnaround latest by FY14. We have factored in a PLF of 55%
                                   and 69% for FY13 and FY14 respectively.


 Key Financials (` in Cr)
              Net                                                     EPS Growth            RONW            ROCE            P/E        EV/EBITDA
 Y/E Mar                EBITDA                PAT          EPS
           Revenue                                                       (%)                 (%)             (%)             (x)           (x)
 2011       1414.8         654.0             374.8         11.8          34.0                22.4            33.7           15.9           9.0
 2012       1630.7         760.4             486.8         15.3          29.9                23.8            35.7           12.2           7.7
 2013E      2154.4        1003.1             603.4         19.0          23.9                23.8            36.8            9.9           5.9
 2014E      2636.2        1238.9             745.3         23.4          23.5                23.5            36.9            8.0           4.8


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                     This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
In addition, GMDC holds a renewable energy portfolio of 105.5 MW, which
                             predominantly consist of wind power assets (100.5 MW) besides a 5 MW solar power
                             plant. In the wind power segment, the company plans to enhance its capacity by 50
                             MW annually taking the capacity to 200.5 MW by 2014 at an investment of ~ ` 600
                             crore.


                             Bauxite mining and other business to add further value
                             Besides lignite, GMDC is also engaged in the mining of minerals like bauxite,
                             manganese, limestone, multi metal etc. On the back of ramp up in production at
                             Gadhsisa mines, we expect bauxite segment revenues to grow at a CAGR of 57.7% to
                             `193 crore over the forecast period. The other businesses are at an emerging stage
                             and expected to take considerable time to prosper.

                             GMDC and NALCO has formed a 26:74 JV to set up an alumina plant and aluminum
                             smelter project in Kutch, Gujarat at an investment of `12,000 crore. GMDC is
                             expected to invest ` 170 crore in cash and ` 170 crore in the form of annual bauxite
                             supply of ~ 3 MMT. Post commissioning of operations in FY16, this is likely to
                             generate additional revenue of ` 200 crore for the company with an operating margin
                             of 40%.



                             Valuation

                             At the CMP of `187, GMDC is trading at 5.9x and 4.8x its estimated EV/ EBITDA for
                             FY13 and FY14, respectively. We initiate coverage on GMDC as a BUY with a Price
                             Objective of ` 255 (6.5x FY14 EV/EBITDA) over a period of 18 months. Considering
                             the increasing production, adequate reserves life of its mines and pricing power, we
                             expect GMDC to continue to register robust growth. The bauxite mining business is
                             also witnessing good growth and the JV with Nalco for setting up an alumina plant and
                             aluminum smelter project, augurs well in terms of long term revenue visibility.
                             However, we have not factored any business revenue from this JV in our earning
                             model.




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              This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
 Company Background
                             Being a sole trader of minerals in Gujarat, Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation
                             Limited (GMDC) enjoys a dominant position for mining lignite and other minerals in
                             Gujarat. Besides lignite, it mines minerals like bauxite, fluorspar, ball clays, silica sand
                             and manganese.

                             GMDC’s customer mix is diversified with power segment contributing to 51% of sales
                             and rest of the demand coming from various other sectors like cement, paper, soda
                             ash and chemicals, bricks and ceramics, textiles, and others.

                                                         Business Verticals




Source: GMDC, Ventura Research




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              This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
Sector wise demand for Lignite (%)




                                                                                                         Others
                                                                               Ceramic                    14%
                                                                                 s&
                                                                                Bricks
                                                                                 10%

                                                                                                                              Power
                                                                                           Textile                             51%
                                                                                            15%




                                                                                                    Cement
                                                                                                     10%

                                                                                    Source: GMDC, Ventura Research
                                          Visibility of higher lignite volume and pricing power provides
                                            significant revenue and earnings growth
                                         On the back of commencement of new lignite mines and the management's ability to
                                         scale up production at the existing mines, GMDC's lignite segment has witnessed a
                                         robust production growth of ~7.3% CAGR over the period of 5 years from 2007 to
                                         2012. Going forward, we expect this segment to grow at a CAGR of 13.5% from FY12-
                                         FY14 aided by the commissioning of the new mine - Umarsar and healthy production
                                         growth from existing mines.
                                         Additionally, being the sole player in the market and absence of coal mines in the
                                         region of Gujarat, GMDC enjoys significant pricing power. This can be reiterated from
                                         the fact that GMDC has been able to increase lignite prices at a CAGR of 14.5% since
                                         FY07-FY12, enabling it to easily offset cost pressures.
                    Lignite Production & Growth (%)                                                       Lignite Revenue & Growth (%)
            16                                                          30%                         2500.00                                                  45.0%
                                                                        25%                                                                                  40.0%
            14
                                                                        20%                         2000.00
            12                                                                                                                                               35.0%
                                                                        15%
                                                                        10%                                                                                  30.0%
            10
                                                                                         Rs.Crore




                                                                                                    1500.00
 (In. MT)




                                                                        5%                                                                                   25.0%
            8
                                                                        0%                                                                                   20.0%
            6                                                                                       1000.00
                                                                        -5%                                                                                  15.0%
            4                                                           -10%
                                                                                                     500.00                                                  10.0%
                                                                        -15%
            2                                                                                                                                                5.0%
                                                                        -20%
            0                                                           -25%                           0.00                                                  0.0%
                 FY 08   FY 09   FY 10    FY 11   FY 12 FY 13E FY 14E                                         FY 11      FY 12      FY 13E     FY 14E

                           Lignite Business        Growth (%) RHS                                                 Lignite Revenue     Growth (%)


Source: GMDC, Ventura Research                                                      Source: GMDC, Ventura Research
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                     This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
Details of Lignite mines

                                                             Geological       Mineable
                                                                                       Production  Rated                     R/P
          Mines Names               Type      Location       Reserves         Reserves
                                                                                         (in.MT)  Capacity                  Ratio
                                                              (in.MT)          (in.MT)
          Panandhro Mine             OC        Kutch             112            109.0       2.6     3.0                     41.9
          Raj Pardhi                 OC       Bhaurch           18.08            12.5       0.9     1.0                     13.9
          Mata no Madh               OC        Bhuj             48.92            33.9       3.6     3.0                      9.4
          Tadkeshwar                 OC       Mandvi            48.92            33.9       2.2     2.5                     15.4
          Bhavnagar                  OC      Bhavnagar         107.54            69.6       2.1     3.0                     33.2
          Umarsar                    OC        Kutch                             24.0                                       24.0

  Source: GMDC, Ventura Research



                             Expanded capacity of Bhavnagar mines to commence operation in the next six
                             months

                             GMDC's Bhavnagar mine has shown an impressive production growth of 76.2%
                             CAGR to 2.1 MT for the period of 2009-2012. By FY14 this is expected to increase to
                             3.5 MT. The company plans to eventually increase this to 5 MT over the medium term
                             and expects government approval over the next couple of quarters.
                             To improve the performance of Bhavnagar mines, GMDC has planned to set up a
                             pyrite removal plant with the capacity of 1.5 MMT, which will help in lowering the
                             sulphuric content in lignite from 5% to 1%. This would help in increasing the average
                             calorific value to a minimum of 4500 Kcal from 3000 Kcal, leading to better
                             realizations.

                             Production at new mines to offset the declining production from its largest mine
                             at Panandhro
                             Despite declining production at its largest mine Panandhro from 3.6 MT in FY09 to
                             2.5 MT in FY12, other mines like Raj pardi, Mata-no-Madh and Tadkeshwar mines has
                             shown a impressive ramp up in its production thereby ensuring significant volume
                             growth.
                             Reduced volumes from the Panandhro mine have been effectively replaced by the
                             enhanced production at Mata-no-Madh mines. Further, GMDC has applied for
                             increasing the production capacity at Mata-no- Madh to ~ 4.8 MT from current 3.5 MT
                             and expects to get an approval in the next 5- 6 months. Post approval, the company
                             is likely to witness significant ramp up in production fuelling future growth.
                             To ensure long term growth and reserve addition, GMDC is all set to commission a
                             new mine, Umarsar by the end of FY13 with 24 mt reserves and mining life of 24
                             years. In line with the management’s estimation, we expect Umarsar production to be
                             0.1 MT and 1 MT in FY13 and FY14, respectively. In addition, the company is also
                             planning to open up two new mines named Dhedadi and Akirimoto, awaiting
                             Government approvals and is expected to commission in the next three year.

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              This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
Lignite production
                                                          16.0
                                                                                                                                 Lignite
                                                          14.0                                                                   Production to
                                                          12.0                                                                   grow despite
                                                                                                                                 lowered
                                                          10.0                                                                   production from



                                               (In. MT)
                                                           8.0                                                                   Panandhro
                                                                                                                                 mines
                                                           6.0
                                                           4.0
                                                           2.0
                                                           0.0
                                                                  2009       2010       2011     2012     2013E         2014E
                                                                 Panandhro            Mata-no-Madh       Tadkeshwar
                                                                 Bhavnagar            Umarsar            Raj Pardhi
                                              Source: GMDC, Ventura Research

                             Additionally, on the back of being the sole player in the market and absence of coal
                             mines in the region of Gujarat, GMDC enjoys significant pricing power.

                             Comfortably insulated from any price correction

                             Presently, GMDC sells lignite at a discount of 15-20% to Indian coal of equivalent
                             calorific value (3,600kcal/kg). In view of rapidly increasing demand for energy and the
                             massive need for coal, there is the least possibility of any drop in coal prices. Further,
                             in the absence of coal mining in the state of Gujarat, increased transportation costs of
                             domestic coal from the nearest coal field of WCL located 750 kms away in Nagpur
                             (Maharashtra), makes lignite an economical choice compared to coal. This provides
                             the company with sufficient head room to take further price hike in the near future,
                             thereby ensuring profitability.

                             Lignite by its nature cannot be stored for more than 7 days and hence the company
                             mines the lignite only after off take contracts are signed and money for the shipment
                             has been received. This insulates the company from any off take risk, besides keeping
                             inventory at negligible levels.

                             Power business-worst already factored in
                             Due to technical and operational issues at its 250 MW (Kutch, Gujarat) lignite based
                             thermal power plant, GMDC has seen a sharp decline in its PLF (40%) leading to
                             lower revenues. The company is facing issues with the bellow in the boiler, which has
                             been replaced 19 times last year. However, with current replacement working properly
                             and plans to outsource O&M operations, we expect the loss making power business to
                             stage a turnaround latest by FY14. We have factored in a PLF of 55% and 69% for
                             FY13 and FY14 respectively.

                             In addition, GMDC holds a renewable energy portfolio of 105.5 MW, which
                             predominantly consist of wind power assets (100.5 MW) besides a 5 MW solar power
                                                                                                                                rd
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              This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
plant. In the wind power segment, the company plans to enhance its capacity by 50
                             MW every year taking the capacity to 200.5 MW by 2014 at an investment of ~ ` 600
                             crore.

                             Bellow issues stands resolved, PLF set to increase
                             GMDC’s 250 MW thermal power plant reached peak production in FY10. Post that the
                             power plant has been witnessing continuous decline in revenue and profitability on the
                             back of bellow (type of expansion joints in the boiler) replacement issues. Last year,
                             the bellow has been replaced 19 times. Each time, the company loses 5 to 7 days of
                             plant availability on account of bellow replacement reducing the PLF significantly.
                             However the bellow issue has been resolved and it is expected that the power plants
                             will start functioning optimally in the next few months.

                                                                        Power Revenue & EBITDA Margin (%)
                                                             300.0                                                     40.0
                                                                                                                       30.0
                                                             250.0                                                     20.0
                                                                                                                       10.0
                                                             200.0                                                     0.0
                                                (Rs.Crore)




                                                                                                                       -10.0
                                                             150.0
                                                                                                                       -20.0
                                                             100.0                                                     -30.0
                                                                                                                       -40.0
                                                              50.0                                                     -50.0
                                                                                                                       -60.0
                                                               0.0                                                     -70.0
                                                                     FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY13E FY14E

                                                                            Revenue        EBIT Margin RHS (%)

                                               Source: GMDC, Ventura Research

                             In order to prevent future mishaps and stabilize operation at its current power plant,
                             GMDC plans to outsource its O&M activity to third party power generators. The
                             company has invited bids for the same and GIPCL and Lanco Power are among the
                             forerunners. The company expects to complete the process in the next 5-6 months.
                             The company hopes that this step would help in improving the PLF of the power plant.
                             We expect the company's PLF to grow to 55% and 69% in FY13 and FY14
                             respectively from the current 40%. Accordingly, we expect the revenues of the power
                             segment to grow at a CAGR of 15.1 % to ` 271.0 crore over the forecast period and
                             lower the losses through increased PLF.

                             Investments in renewable power to enhance generation portfolio
                             Currently, GMDC’s 105.5 MW renewable power portfolio includes the recently
                             commissioned 5 MW solar power plant at Kutch. The company has a capacity of
                             100.5 MW in the wind power segment which it plans to enhance by 50MW annually
                             taking the capacity of 200.5 MW by 2014 at an investment of ~ ` 600 crore. We expect
                             the plants to continue to operate at PLFs of 20-22% and boost revenue and
                             profitability.

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              This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
 Bauxite mining and other business to add further value
                                     Besides lignite, GMDC is also engaged in the mining of minerals like bauxite,
                                     manganese, limestone, multi metal etc. On the back of ramp up in production at
                                     Gadhsisa mines, we expect bauxite segment revenues to grow at a CAGR of 57.7% to
                                     `193 crore over the forecast period. The other businesses are at an emerging stage
                                     and expected to take considerable time to prosper.

                                     GMDC and NALCO has formed a 26:74 JV to set up an alumina plant and aluminum
                                     smelter project in Kutch, Gujarat at an investment of `12,000 crore. GMDC is
                                     expected to invest ` 170 crore in cash and ` 170 crore in the form of annual bauxite
                                     supply of ~ 3 MMT. Post commissioning of operations in FY16, this is likely to
                                     generate additional revenue of ` 200 crore for the company with an operating margin
                                     of 40%.

                                     GMDC also derives revenues from the mining of bauxite, manganese ore, fluorspar,
                                     silica, limestone among others. Though their contribution to revenues are miniscule
                                     (compared to lignite and power), however the immense growth opportunities and
                                     GMDC’s continuous efforts to monetize them makes these minerals lucrative from the
                                     long term perspective.


                                     Ramp up in bauxite volumes, JV with NALCO to boost revenues
                                     On the back of ramp up in production at the existing mine, we expect the volumes to
                                     grow from the current 0.9 MT to 2.0 MT by FY14. This should help revenues from this
                                     increased volume to grow at a CAGR of 57.7 % to `193 crore by FY14.


                   Bauxite Production & Growth (%)                                                 Bauxite Revenue & Growth (%)
             2.5                                                     80.0%                   250                                                    90.0%
                                                                     70.0%                                                                          80.0%
             2.0                                                                             200                                                    70.0%
                                                                     60.0%
                                                                                                                                                    60.0%
                                                                     50.0%
                                                                                  Rs.Crore




             1.5                                                                             150
  (In. MT)




                                                                                                                                                    50.0%
                                                                     40.0%
                                                                                                                                                    40.0%
             1.0                                                     30.0%                   100
                                                                                                                                                    30.0%
                                                                     20.0%
             0.5                                                                              50                                                    20.0%
                                                                     10.0%                                                                          10.0%
             0.0                                                     0.0%                      0                                                    0.0%
                   FY 10     FY 11       FY 12   FY 13E     FY 14E                                  FY 11        FY 12        FY 13E      FY 14E

                           Bauxite Business      Growth (%) RHS                                             Bauxite Revenue       Growth (%)



 Source: GMDC, Ventura Research                                                Source: GMDC, Ventura Research


                                     GMDC and NALCO has formed a 26:74 JV to set up an alumina plant and aluminum
                                     smelter project in Kutch, Gujarat at an investment of `12,000 crore. GMDC is
                                                                                                                                               rd
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                   This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
expected to invest ` 170 crore in cash and ` 170 crore in the form of annual bauxite
                             supply of ~ 3 MMT. Post commissioning of operations, GMDC is likely to witness a
                             sharp ramp up in bauxite volumes from the current 0.8 MMT to 5 MT by 2016. This is
                             likely to generate additional revenue of ` 200 crore for the company with an operating
                             margin of 40%.


                             Financial performance
                             Supported by higher volumes and prices, GMDC posted a revenue growth of 15.6% to
                             ` 537 crore in Q4FY12. Operating profit in the same period was higher by 21% and
                             stood at ` 246.1 crore led by better pricing mix. Consequently, EBITDA margin stood
                             at 45.8%, higher by 190 bps yoy. Lower interest costs on account of major debt
                             repayment & lower effective tax rate further boosted the net profit which grew by 41%
                             to ` 158.6 crore in Q4FY12.

                                                                Quarterly Financial Performance
                                                Particulars                    Q4FY12      Q4FY11        FY12         FY11
                                                Net Sales                       537.0        464.6      1630.7       1421.0
                                                Growth %                         15.6                     14.8
                                                Total Expenditure               290.9        260.8       870.2       767.0
                                                EBIDTA                          246.1        203.8       760.4       654.0
                                                EBDITA Margin %                  45.8        43.9         46.6        46.0
                                                Depreciation                     32.0        29.4        108.3        93.0
                                                EBIT (EX OI)                    214.1        174.3       652.1       561.1
                                                Other Income                     23.7        21.9         73.4        38.8
                                                EBIT                            237.8        196.3       725.5       599.9
                                                Margin %                         44.3        42.2         44.5        42.2
                                                Interest                          0.9         4.8         7.8         15.3
                                                Exceptional items                 0.0         0.0         0.0          0.0
                                                PBT                             236.8        191.4       717.6       584.6
                                                Margin %                         44.1        41.2         44.0        41.1
                                                Provision for Tax                78.3        78.7        230.9       209.8
                                                PAT                             158.6        112.7       486.8       374.8
                                                PAT Margin (%)                   29.5        24.3         29.8        26.4
                                               Source: GMDC , Ventura Research

                             Financial outlook
                             On the back of ramp up of volumes at Bhavnagar and Tadkeshwar mines, new mines
                             coming on stream and significant price hikes, we expect GMDC’s revenues to grow at
                             a CAGR of 27.1% to ` 2636.2 crore by FY14. Consequently, we forecast the operating
                             profit to grow at a CAGR of 27.6% over FY12-14 to ` 1238.9 crore. While, EBITDA
                             margins would remain flat at 46% over the forecast period with upside risk. In our
                             view, the worst in power business is already factored in and we believe the power
                             business to return to profitability in FY14. Interest costs are also likely to come down
                             significantly due to major debt repayment. Consequently, the PAT would grow at a
                             CAGR of 23.7% to ` 745.3 crore by FY14 as compared to `487 crore in FY12.

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              This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
Revenue, EBIDTA & PAT Margin (%)
                                                                 3000                                                              60%

                                                                 2500                                                              50%

                                                                 2000                                                              40%




                                                      Rs.Crore
                                                                 1500                                                              30%

                                                                 1000                                                              20%

                                                                  500                                                              10%

                                                                    0                                                              0%
                                                                        FY 10     FY 11     FY 12        FY 13E       FY 14E

                                                                        Revenue      EBITDA Margin (%)            PAT Margin (%)

                                               Source: GMDC, Ventura Research


                              Valuation
                              At the CMP of `187, GMDC is trading at 5.9x and 4.8x its estimated EV/ EBITDA for
                              FY13 and FY14, respectively. We initiate coverage on GMDC as a BUY with a Price
                              Objective of ` 255 (6.5x FY14 EV/EBITDA) over a period of 18 months. Considering
                              the increasing production, adequate reserves life of its mines and pricing power, we
                              expect GMDC to continue to register robust growth. The bauxite mining business is
                              also witnessing good growth and the JV with Nalco for setting up an alumina plant and
                              aluminum smelter project, augurs well in terms of long term revenue visibility.
                              However, we have not factored any business revenue from this JV in our earning
                              model.




                                                                                                                                         rd
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               This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
P/E
                                         400
                                         350
                                         300
                                         250
                                         200
                                         150
                                         100
                                          50
                                           0
                                           Mar-02    Mar-04     Mar-06    Mar-08     Mar-10     Mar-12
                                               CMP     6.5X      9.75X      13X       16.25X      19.5X

                                    Source: GMDC , Ventura Research

                                                                P/BV
                                        350
                                        300
                                        250
                                        200
                                        150
                                        100
                                         50
                                          0
                                          Mar-02     Mar-04    Mar-06     Mar-08    Mar-10     Mar-12
                                              CMP     0.75X      1.375X      2X      2.625X       3.25X

                                  Source: GMDC , Ventura Research

                                                               EV/EBITDA
                                      12000

                                      10000

                                       8000

                                       6000

                                       4000

                                       2000

                                          0
                                          Mar-02     Mar-04     Mar-06    Mar-08     Mar-10    Mar-12
                                              EV     2.5X      4.16X       5.82X      7.48X       9.14X

                                   Source: GMDC , Ventura Research

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               This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
Financials and Projections
     Y/E March, Fig in Rs. Cr       FY 2011     FY 2012 FY 2013e FY 2014e        Y/E March, Fig in Rs. Cr           FY 2011    FY 2012 FY 2013e FY 2014e
     Profit & Loss Statement                                                     Per Share Data (Rs)
     Net Sales                        1414.8     1630.7     2154.4    2636.2     EPS                                   11.8       15.3     19.0      23.4
     % Chg.                                        15.3       32.1       22.4    Cash EPS                              14.7       18.7     22.9      28.1
     Total Expenditure                 760.8      870.2     1151.3    1397.3     DPS                                     3.0        3.0      3.0      3.0
     % Chg.                                        14.4       32.3       21.4    Book Value                            52.5       64.3     79.8      99.8
     EBITDA                            654.0      760.4     1003.1    1238.9    Capital, Liquidity, Returns Ratio
     EBITDA Margin %                     46.2      46.6       46.6       47.0    Debt / Equity (x)                       0.1        0.0      0.0      0.0
     Other Income                        38.8      73.4       38.1       39.3    Current Ratio (x)                       1.2        1.5      1.6      1.5
     Exceptional items                    0.0        0.0       0.0        0.0    ROE (%)                               22.4       23.8     23.8      23.5
     PBDIT                             692.8      833.8     1041.2    1278.3     ROCE (%)                              33.7       35.7     36.8      36.9
     Depreciation                        93.0     108.3      126.4     148.7     Dividend Yield (%)                      1.6        1.6      1.6      1.6
     Interest                            15.3        7.8       2.0        2.0    Valuation Ratio (x)
     PBT                               584.6      717.6      912.8    1127.6     P/E                                   15.9       12.2       9.9      8.0
     Tax Provisions                    209.8      230.9      309.4     382.2     P/BV                                    3.6        2.9      2.3      1.9
     Reported PAT                      374.8      486.8      603.4     745.3     EV/Sales                                4.2        3.6      2.7      2.2
     PAT Margin (%)                      26.5      29.8       28.0       28.3    EV/EBIDTA                               9.0        7.7      5.9      4.8
                                                                                 Efficiency Ratio (x)
     Manpower cost / Sales (%)           10.7        6.6       5.8        5.8    Inventory (days)                      17.6       14.6     15.0      15.0
     Other Exp / Sales (%)                0.2        0.3       0.3        0.3    Debtors (days)                          9.2        9.9    10.0      10.0
     Tax Rate (%)                        35.9      32.2       33.9       33.9    Creditors (days)                      94.9      118.7    110.0    110.0


     Balance Sheet                                                               Cash Flow statement
     Share Capital                       63.6      63.6       63.6       63.6    Profit After Tax                     374.8      486.8    603.4    745.3
     Reserves & Surplus               1606.2     1982.1    2474.6     3109.0     Depreciation                          93.0      108.3    126.4    148.7
     Minority Interest & Others           0.0        0.0       0.0        0.0    Working Capital Changes               -56.0      -12.4   -194.4   -129.7
     Total Loans                       133.0         0.0       0.0        0.0    Others                                 -1.7      -99.6      0.0      0.0
     Deferred Tax Iiability            253.7      293.0      293.0     293.0     Operating Cash Flow                  410.0      483.1    535.4    764.3
     Total Liabilities                2056.5     2338.7    2831.2     3465.6     Capital Expenditure                  -269.2     -336.2   -426.0   -530.5
     Goodwill                             0.0        0.0       0.0        0.0    Change in Investment                    0.0        0.0      0.0   -132.6
     Gross Block                      2236.2     2584.9    3010.2     3540.2     Cash Flow from Investing             -269.3     -336.2   -426.0   -663.1
     Less: Acc. Depreciation           718.8      827.1      953.6    1102.2     Proceeds from equity issue              0.0        0.0      0.0      0.0
     Net Block                        1517.4     1757.8    2056.6     2437.9     Inc/ Dec in Debt                      -83.0     -133.0      0.0      0.0
     Capital Work in Progress            18.8        6.3       7.0        7.5    Dividend and DDT                     -110.9        0.0   -110.9   -110.9
     Investments                       132.6      132.6      132.6     265.3     Cash Flow from Financing             -193.9     -133.0   -110.9   -110.9
     Net Current Assets                376.4      442.0      635.0     755.0     Net Change in Cash                    -53.2      13.9      -1.5     -9.7
     Misc.Expenditure                    11.2        0.0       0.0        0.0    Opening Cash Balance                  95.8       42.6     56.5      55.0
     Total Assets                     2056.5     2338.7    2831.2     3465.6     Closing Cash Balance                  42.6       56.5     55.0      45.2



 Ventura Securities Limited

 Corporate Office: C-112/116, Bldg No. 1, Kailash Industrial Complex, Park Site, Vikhroli (W), Mumbai – 400079

 This report is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views expressed herein are believed to be reliable, but
 no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in or have positions in the securities
 mentioned in their articles. Neither Ventura Securities Limited nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of the above
 information/articles. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited. This report is for private circulation.


                                                                                                                                             rd
- 12 of 12 -                                                                                                                      Monday 23 July, 2012

                This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

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Initiating coverage gmdc_ltd_buy_for_36_per_appreciation

  • 1. Gujarat Mineral Development Crop Ltd. BUY Target Price ` 255 CMP ` 187 FY14 EV/EBITDA 4.8x Index Details We initiate coverage on Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation Sensex 16,877 Ltd (GMDC) as a BUY with a Price Objective of `255 (target 6.5x Nifty 5,118 FY14 EV/EBITDA). At CMP of `187, the stock is trading at 5.9x and BSE 100 5,131 4.8x its EV/EBITDA estimated for FY13 & FY14 respectively, Industry COAL representing a potential upside of ~36% over a period of 18 months. Led by uptick in lignite volumes, price hikes, growth in Scrip Details bauxite business and possible turnaround in the power segment, Mkt Cap (` cr) 5,947 we expect GMDC’s revenues and earnings to post a CAGR of BVPS (`) 64.3 27.1% and 23.7% to `2636.2 crore and `745.3 crore, respectively by FY14. Being the sole trader of lignite and other minerals in the O/s Shares (Cr) 31.8 state of Gujarat, GMDC enjoys assured off-take and significant Av Vol (Lacs) 0.9 pricing power, thereby ensuring long term revenue visibility. 52 Week H/L 213/151 Div Yield (%) 1.5  Visibility of higher lignite volume and pricing power provides STOCK POINTER FVPS (`) 2.0 significant revenue and earnings growth On the back of commencement of new lignite mines and the management's ability to Shareholding Pattern scale up production at the existing mines, GMDC's lignite segment has witnessed a robust production growth of ~7.3% CAGR over the period of 5 years from 2007 to Shareholders % 2012. Going forward, we expect this segment to grow at a CAGR of 13.5% from Promoters 74.0 FY12-FY14 aided by the commissioning of the new mine - Umarsar and healthy DIIs 12.8 production growth from existing mines. Additionally, on the back of being the sole player and absence of coal mines in the region of Gujarat, GMDC enjoys significant FIIs 6.8 pricing power. This can be reiterated from the fact that GMDC has been able to Public 6.5 increase lignite prices at a CAGR of 14.5% since FY07-FY12, enabling it to easily Total 100 offset cost pressures. GMDC. vs. Sensex  Power business-worst already factored in Due to technical and operational issues at its 250 MW (Kutch, Gujarat) lignite based thermal power plant, GMDC has seen a sharp decline in its PLF (40%) leading to lower revenues. The company is facing issues with the bellow in the boiler, which has been replaced 19 times till date. However, with current replacement working properly and plans to outsource O&M operations, we expect the loss making power business to stage a turnaround latest by FY14. We have factored in a PLF of 55% and 69% for FY13 and FY14 respectively. Key Financials (` in Cr) Net EPS Growth RONW ROCE P/E EV/EBITDA Y/E Mar EBITDA PAT EPS Revenue (%) (%) (%) (x) (x) 2011 1414.8 654.0 374.8 11.8 34.0 22.4 33.7 15.9 9.0 2012 1630.7 760.4 486.8 15.3 29.9 23.8 35.7 12.2 7.7 2013E 2154.4 1003.1 603.4 19.0 23.9 23.8 36.8 9.9 5.9 2014E 2636.2 1238.9 745.3 23.4 23.5 23.5 36.9 8.0 4.8 rd - 1 of 12 - Monday 23 July, 2012 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
  • 2. In addition, GMDC holds a renewable energy portfolio of 105.5 MW, which predominantly consist of wind power assets (100.5 MW) besides a 5 MW solar power plant. In the wind power segment, the company plans to enhance its capacity by 50 MW annually taking the capacity to 200.5 MW by 2014 at an investment of ~ ` 600 crore.  Bauxite mining and other business to add further value Besides lignite, GMDC is also engaged in the mining of minerals like bauxite, manganese, limestone, multi metal etc. On the back of ramp up in production at Gadhsisa mines, we expect bauxite segment revenues to grow at a CAGR of 57.7% to `193 crore over the forecast period. The other businesses are at an emerging stage and expected to take considerable time to prosper. GMDC and NALCO has formed a 26:74 JV to set up an alumina plant and aluminum smelter project in Kutch, Gujarat at an investment of `12,000 crore. GMDC is expected to invest ` 170 crore in cash and ` 170 crore in the form of annual bauxite supply of ~ 3 MMT. Post commissioning of operations in FY16, this is likely to generate additional revenue of ` 200 crore for the company with an operating margin of 40%.  Valuation At the CMP of `187, GMDC is trading at 5.9x and 4.8x its estimated EV/ EBITDA for FY13 and FY14, respectively. We initiate coverage on GMDC as a BUY with a Price Objective of ` 255 (6.5x FY14 EV/EBITDA) over a period of 18 months. Considering the increasing production, adequate reserves life of its mines and pricing power, we expect GMDC to continue to register robust growth. The bauxite mining business is also witnessing good growth and the JV with Nalco for setting up an alumina plant and aluminum smelter project, augurs well in terms of long term revenue visibility. However, we have not factored any business revenue from this JV in our earning model. rd - 2 of 12 - Monday 23 July, 2012 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
  • 3.  Company Background Being a sole trader of minerals in Gujarat, Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation Limited (GMDC) enjoys a dominant position for mining lignite and other minerals in Gujarat. Besides lignite, it mines minerals like bauxite, fluorspar, ball clays, silica sand and manganese. GMDC’s customer mix is diversified with power segment contributing to 51% of sales and rest of the demand coming from various other sectors like cement, paper, soda ash and chemicals, bricks and ceramics, textiles, and others. Business Verticals Source: GMDC, Ventura Research rd - 3 of 12 - Monday 23 July, 2012 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
  • 4. Sector wise demand for Lignite (%) Others Ceramic 14% s& Bricks 10% Power Textile 51% 15% Cement 10% Source: GMDC, Ventura Research  Visibility of higher lignite volume and pricing power provides significant revenue and earnings growth On the back of commencement of new lignite mines and the management's ability to scale up production at the existing mines, GMDC's lignite segment has witnessed a robust production growth of ~7.3% CAGR over the period of 5 years from 2007 to 2012. Going forward, we expect this segment to grow at a CAGR of 13.5% from FY12- FY14 aided by the commissioning of the new mine - Umarsar and healthy production growth from existing mines. Additionally, being the sole player in the market and absence of coal mines in the region of Gujarat, GMDC enjoys significant pricing power. This can be reiterated from the fact that GMDC has been able to increase lignite prices at a CAGR of 14.5% since FY07-FY12, enabling it to easily offset cost pressures. Lignite Production & Growth (%) Lignite Revenue & Growth (%) 16 30% 2500.00 45.0% 25% 40.0% 14 20% 2000.00 12 35.0% 15% 10% 30.0% 10 Rs.Crore 1500.00 (In. MT) 5% 25.0% 8 0% 20.0% 6 1000.00 -5% 15.0% 4 -10% 500.00 10.0% -15% 2 5.0% -20% 0 -25% 0.00 0.0% FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13E FY 14E FY 11 FY 12 FY 13E FY 14E Lignite Business Growth (%) RHS Lignite Revenue Growth (%) Source: GMDC, Ventura Research Source: GMDC, Ventura Research rd - 4 of 12 - Monday 23 July, 2012 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
  • 5. Details of Lignite mines Geological Mineable Production Rated R/P Mines Names Type Location Reserves Reserves (in.MT) Capacity Ratio (in.MT) (in.MT) Panandhro Mine OC Kutch 112 109.0 2.6 3.0 41.9 Raj Pardhi OC Bhaurch 18.08 12.5 0.9 1.0 13.9 Mata no Madh OC Bhuj 48.92 33.9 3.6 3.0 9.4 Tadkeshwar OC Mandvi 48.92 33.9 2.2 2.5 15.4 Bhavnagar OC Bhavnagar 107.54 69.6 2.1 3.0 33.2 Umarsar OC Kutch 24.0 24.0 Source: GMDC, Ventura Research Expanded capacity of Bhavnagar mines to commence operation in the next six months GMDC's Bhavnagar mine has shown an impressive production growth of 76.2% CAGR to 2.1 MT for the period of 2009-2012. By FY14 this is expected to increase to 3.5 MT. The company plans to eventually increase this to 5 MT over the medium term and expects government approval over the next couple of quarters. To improve the performance of Bhavnagar mines, GMDC has planned to set up a pyrite removal plant with the capacity of 1.5 MMT, which will help in lowering the sulphuric content in lignite from 5% to 1%. This would help in increasing the average calorific value to a minimum of 4500 Kcal from 3000 Kcal, leading to better realizations. Production at new mines to offset the declining production from its largest mine at Panandhro Despite declining production at its largest mine Panandhro from 3.6 MT in FY09 to 2.5 MT in FY12, other mines like Raj pardi, Mata-no-Madh and Tadkeshwar mines has shown a impressive ramp up in its production thereby ensuring significant volume growth. Reduced volumes from the Panandhro mine have been effectively replaced by the enhanced production at Mata-no-Madh mines. Further, GMDC has applied for increasing the production capacity at Mata-no- Madh to ~ 4.8 MT from current 3.5 MT and expects to get an approval in the next 5- 6 months. Post approval, the company is likely to witness significant ramp up in production fuelling future growth. To ensure long term growth and reserve addition, GMDC is all set to commission a new mine, Umarsar by the end of FY13 with 24 mt reserves and mining life of 24 years. In line with the management’s estimation, we expect Umarsar production to be 0.1 MT and 1 MT in FY13 and FY14, respectively. In addition, the company is also planning to open up two new mines named Dhedadi and Akirimoto, awaiting Government approvals and is expected to commission in the next three year. rd - 5 of 12 - Monday 23 July, 2012 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
  • 6. Lignite production 16.0 Lignite 14.0 Production to 12.0 grow despite lowered 10.0 production from (In. MT) 8.0 Panandhro mines 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E Panandhro Mata-no-Madh Tadkeshwar Bhavnagar Umarsar Raj Pardhi Source: GMDC, Ventura Research Additionally, on the back of being the sole player in the market and absence of coal mines in the region of Gujarat, GMDC enjoys significant pricing power. Comfortably insulated from any price correction Presently, GMDC sells lignite at a discount of 15-20% to Indian coal of equivalent calorific value (3,600kcal/kg). In view of rapidly increasing demand for energy and the massive need for coal, there is the least possibility of any drop in coal prices. Further, in the absence of coal mining in the state of Gujarat, increased transportation costs of domestic coal from the nearest coal field of WCL located 750 kms away in Nagpur (Maharashtra), makes lignite an economical choice compared to coal. This provides the company with sufficient head room to take further price hike in the near future, thereby ensuring profitability. Lignite by its nature cannot be stored for more than 7 days and hence the company mines the lignite only after off take contracts are signed and money for the shipment has been received. This insulates the company from any off take risk, besides keeping inventory at negligible levels.  Power business-worst already factored in Due to technical and operational issues at its 250 MW (Kutch, Gujarat) lignite based thermal power plant, GMDC has seen a sharp decline in its PLF (40%) leading to lower revenues. The company is facing issues with the bellow in the boiler, which has been replaced 19 times last year. However, with current replacement working properly and plans to outsource O&M operations, we expect the loss making power business to stage a turnaround latest by FY14. We have factored in a PLF of 55% and 69% for FY13 and FY14 respectively. In addition, GMDC holds a renewable energy portfolio of 105.5 MW, which predominantly consist of wind power assets (100.5 MW) besides a 5 MW solar power rd - 6 of 12 - Monday 23 July, 2012 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
  • 7. plant. In the wind power segment, the company plans to enhance its capacity by 50 MW every year taking the capacity to 200.5 MW by 2014 at an investment of ~ ` 600 crore. Bellow issues stands resolved, PLF set to increase GMDC’s 250 MW thermal power plant reached peak production in FY10. Post that the power plant has been witnessing continuous decline in revenue and profitability on the back of bellow (type of expansion joints in the boiler) replacement issues. Last year, the bellow has been replaced 19 times. Each time, the company loses 5 to 7 days of plant availability on account of bellow replacement reducing the PLF significantly. However the bellow issue has been resolved and it is expected that the power plants will start functioning optimally in the next few months. Power Revenue & EBITDA Margin (%) 300.0 40.0 30.0 250.0 20.0 10.0 200.0 0.0 (Rs.Crore) -10.0 150.0 -20.0 100.0 -30.0 -40.0 50.0 -50.0 -60.0 0.0 -70.0 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY13E FY14E Revenue EBIT Margin RHS (%) Source: GMDC, Ventura Research In order to prevent future mishaps and stabilize operation at its current power plant, GMDC plans to outsource its O&M activity to third party power generators. The company has invited bids for the same and GIPCL and Lanco Power are among the forerunners. The company expects to complete the process in the next 5-6 months. The company hopes that this step would help in improving the PLF of the power plant. We expect the company's PLF to grow to 55% and 69% in FY13 and FY14 respectively from the current 40%. Accordingly, we expect the revenues of the power segment to grow at a CAGR of 15.1 % to ` 271.0 crore over the forecast period and lower the losses through increased PLF. Investments in renewable power to enhance generation portfolio Currently, GMDC’s 105.5 MW renewable power portfolio includes the recently commissioned 5 MW solar power plant at Kutch. The company has a capacity of 100.5 MW in the wind power segment which it plans to enhance by 50MW annually taking the capacity of 200.5 MW by 2014 at an investment of ~ ` 600 crore. We expect the plants to continue to operate at PLFs of 20-22% and boost revenue and profitability. rd - 7 of 12 - Monday 23 July, 2012 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
  • 8.  Bauxite mining and other business to add further value Besides lignite, GMDC is also engaged in the mining of minerals like bauxite, manganese, limestone, multi metal etc. On the back of ramp up in production at Gadhsisa mines, we expect bauxite segment revenues to grow at a CAGR of 57.7% to `193 crore over the forecast period. The other businesses are at an emerging stage and expected to take considerable time to prosper. GMDC and NALCO has formed a 26:74 JV to set up an alumina plant and aluminum smelter project in Kutch, Gujarat at an investment of `12,000 crore. GMDC is expected to invest ` 170 crore in cash and ` 170 crore in the form of annual bauxite supply of ~ 3 MMT. Post commissioning of operations in FY16, this is likely to generate additional revenue of ` 200 crore for the company with an operating margin of 40%. GMDC also derives revenues from the mining of bauxite, manganese ore, fluorspar, silica, limestone among others. Though their contribution to revenues are miniscule (compared to lignite and power), however the immense growth opportunities and GMDC’s continuous efforts to monetize them makes these minerals lucrative from the long term perspective. Ramp up in bauxite volumes, JV with NALCO to boost revenues On the back of ramp up in production at the existing mine, we expect the volumes to grow from the current 0.9 MT to 2.0 MT by FY14. This should help revenues from this increased volume to grow at a CAGR of 57.7 % to `193 crore by FY14. Bauxite Production & Growth (%) Bauxite Revenue & Growth (%) 2.5 80.0% 250 90.0% 70.0% 80.0% 2.0 200 70.0% 60.0% 60.0% 50.0% Rs.Crore 1.5 150 (In. MT) 50.0% 40.0% 40.0% 1.0 30.0% 100 30.0% 20.0% 0.5 50 20.0% 10.0% 10.0% 0.0 0.0% 0 0.0% FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13E FY 14E FY 11 FY 12 FY 13E FY 14E Bauxite Business Growth (%) RHS Bauxite Revenue Growth (%) Source: GMDC, Ventura Research Source: GMDC, Ventura Research GMDC and NALCO has formed a 26:74 JV to set up an alumina plant and aluminum smelter project in Kutch, Gujarat at an investment of `12,000 crore. GMDC is rd - 8 of 12 - Monday 23 July, 2012 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
  • 9. expected to invest ` 170 crore in cash and ` 170 crore in the form of annual bauxite supply of ~ 3 MMT. Post commissioning of operations, GMDC is likely to witness a sharp ramp up in bauxite volumes from the current 0.8 MMT to 5 MT by 2016. This is likely to generate additional revenue of ` 200 crore for the company with an operating margin of 40%. Financial performance Supported by higher volumes and prices, GMDC posted a revenue growth of 15.6% to ` 537 crore in Q4FY12. Operating profit in the same period was higher by 21% and stood at ` 246.1 crore led by better pricing mix. Consequently, EBITDA margin stood at 45.8%, higher by 190 bps yoy. Lower interest costs on account of major debt repayment & lower effective tax rate further boosted the net profit which grew by 41% to ` 158.6 crore in Q4FY12. Quarterly Financial Performance Particulars Q4FY12 Q4FY11 FY12 FY11 Net Sales 537.0 464.6 1630.7 1421.0 Growth % 15.6 14.8 Total Expenditure 290.9 260.8 870.2 767.0 EBIDTA 246.1 203.8 760.4 654.0 EBDITA Margin % 45.8 43.9 46.6 46.0 Depreciation 32.0 29.4 108.3 93.0 EBIT (EX OI) 214.1 174.3 652.1 561.1 Other Income 23.7 21.9 73.4 38.8 EBIT 237.8 196.3 725.5 599.9 Margin % 44.3 42.2 44.5 42.2 Interest 0.9 4.8 7.8 15.3 Exceptional items 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PBT 236.8 191.4 717.6 584.6 Margin % 44.1 41.2 44.0 41.1 Provision for Tax 78.3 78.7 230.9 209.8 PAT 158.6 112.7 486.8 374.8 PAT Margin (%) 29.5 24.3 29.8 26.4 Source: GMDC , Ventura Research Financial outlook On the back of ramp up of volumes at Bhavnagar and Tadkeshwar mines, new mines coming on stream and significant price hikes, we expect GMDC’s revenues to grow at a CAGR of 27.1% to ` 2636.2 crore by FY14. Consequently, we forecast the operating profit to grow at a CAGR of 27.6% over FY12-14 to ` 1238.9 crore. While, EBITDA margins would remain flat at 46% over the forecast period with upside risk. In our view, the worst in power business is already factored in and we believe the power business to return to profitability in FY14. Interest costs are also likely to come down significantly due to major debt repayment. Consequently, the PAT would grow at a CAGR of 23.7% to ` 745.3 crore by FY14 as compared to `487 crore in FY12. rd - 9 of 12 - Monday 23 July, 2012 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
  • 10. Revenue, EBIDTA & PAT Margin (%) 3000 60% 2500 50% 2000 40% Rs.Crore 1500 30% 1000 20% 500 10% 0 0% FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13E FY 14E Revenue EBITDA Margin (%) PAT Margin (%) Source: GMDC, Ventura Research Valuation At the CMP of `187, GMDC is trading at 5.9x and 4.8x its estimated EV/ EBITDA for FY13 and FY14, respectively. We initiate coverage on GMDC as a BUY with a Price Objective of ` 255 (6.5x FY14 EV/EBITDA) over a period of 18 months. Considering the increasing production, adequate reserves life of its mines and pricing power, we expect GMDC to continue to register robust growth. The bauxite mining business is also witnessing good growth and the JV with Nalco for setting up an alumina plant and aluminum smelter project, augurs well in terms of long term revenue visibility. However, we have not factored any business revenue from this JV in our earning model. rd - 10 of 12 - Monday 23 July, 2012 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
  • 11. P/E 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Mar-02 Mar-04 Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-12 CMP 6.5X 9.75X 13X 16.25X 19.5X Source: GMDC , Ventura Research P/BV 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Mar-02 Mar-04 Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-12 CMP 0.75X 1.375X 2X 2.625X 3.25X Source: GMDC , Ventura Research EV/EBITDA 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Mar-02 Mar-04 Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-12 EV 2.5X 4.16X 5.82X 7.48X 9.14X Source: GMDC , Ventura Research rd - 11 of 12 - Monday 23 July, 2012 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
  • 12. Financials and Projections Y/E March, Fig in Rs. Cr FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013e FY 2014e Y/E March, Fig in Rs. Cr FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013e FY 2014e Profit & Loss Statement Per Share Data (Rs) Net Sales 1414.8 1630.7 2154.4 2636.2 EPS 11.8 15.3 19.0 23.4 % Chg. 15.3 32.1 22.4 Cash EPS 14.7 18.7 22.9 28.1 Total Expenditure 760.8 870.2 1151.3 1397.3 DPS 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 % Chg. 14.4 32.3 21.4 Book Value 52.5 64.3 79.8 99.8 EBITDA 654.0 760.4 1003.1 1238.9 Capital, Liquidity, Returns Ratio EBITDA Margin % 46.2 46.6 46.6 47.0 Debt / Equity (x) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Income 38.8 73.4 38.1 39.3 Current Ratio (x) 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.5 Exceptional items 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ROE (%) 22.4 23.8 23.8 23.5 PBDIT 692.8 833.8 1041.2 1278.3 ROCE (%) 33.7 35.7 36.8 36.9 Depreciation 93.0 108.3 126.4 148.7 Dividend Yield (%) 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 Interest 15.3 7.8 2.0 2.0 Valuation Ratio (x) PBT 584.6 717.6 912.8 1127.6 P/E 15.9 12.2 9.9 8.0 Tax Provisions 209.8 230.9 309.4 382.2 P/BV 3.6 2.9 2.3 1.9 Reported PAT 374.8 486.8 603.4 745.3 EV/Sales 4.2 3.6 2.7 2.2 PAT Margin (%) 26.5 29.8 28.0 28.3 EV/EBIDTA 9.0 7.7 5.9 4.8 Efficiency Ratio (x) Manpower cost / Sales (%) 10.7 6.6 5.8 5.8 Inventory (days) 17.6 14.6 15.0 15.0 Other Exp / Sales (%) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 Debtors (days) 9.2 9.9 10.0 10.0 Tax Rate (%) 35.9 32.2 33.9 33.9 Creditors (days) 94.9 118.7 110.0 110.0 Balance Sheet Cash Flow statement Share Capital 63.6 63.6 63.6 63.6 Profit After Tax 374.8 486.8 603.4 745.3 Reserves & Surplus 1606.2 1982.1 2474.6 3109.0 Depreciation 93.0 108.3 126.4 148.7 Minority Interest & Others 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Working Capital Changes -56.0 -12.4 -194.4 -129.7 Total Loans 133.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Others -1.7 -99.6 0.0 0.0 Deferred Tax Iiability 253.7 293.0 293.0 293.0 Operating Cash Flow 410.0 483.1 535.4 764.3 Total Liabilities 2056.5 2338.7 2831.2 3465.6 Capital Expenditure -269.2 -336.2 -426.0 -530.5 Goodwill 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Change in Investment 0.0 0.0 0.0 -132.6 Gross Block 2236.2 2584.9 3010.2 3540.2 Cash Flow from Investing -269.3 -336.2 -426.0 -663.1 Less: Acc. Depreciation 718.8 827.1 953.6 1102.2 Proceeds from equity issue 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Block 1517.4 1757.8 2056.6 2437.9 Inc/ Dec in Debt -83.0 -133.0 0.0 0.0 Capital Work in Progress 18.8 6.3 7.0 7.5 Dividend and DDT -110.9 0.0 -110.9 -110.9 Investments 132.6 132.6 132.6 265.3 Cash Flow from Financing -193.9 -133.0 -110.9 -110.9 Net Current Assets 376.4 442.0 635.0 755.0 Net Change in Cash -53.2 13.9 -1.5 -9.7 Misc.Expenditure 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Opening Cash Balance 95.8 42.6 56.5 55.0 Total Assets 2056.5 2338.7 2831.2 3465.6 Closing Cash Balance 42.6 56.5 55.0 45.2 Ventura Securities Limited Corporate Office: C-112/116, Bldg No. 1, Kailash Industrial Complex, Park Site, Vikhroli (W), Mumbai – 400079 This report is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views expressed herein are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither Ventura Securities Limited nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of the above information/articles. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited. This report is for private circulation. rd - 12 of 12 - Monday 23 July, 2012 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.