1. Gujarat Mineral Development Crop Ltd.
BUY
Target Price ` 255 CMP ` 187 FY14 EV/EBITDA 4.8x
Index Details We initiate coverage on Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation
Sensex 16,877 Ltd (GMDC) as a BUY with a Price Objective of `255 (target 6.5x
Nifty 5,118 FY14 EV/EBITDA). At CMP of `187, the stock is trading at 5.9x and
BSE 100 5,131 4.8x its EV/EBITDA estimated for FY13 & FY14 respectively,
Industry COAL representing a potential upside of ~36% over a period of 18
months. Led by uptick in lignite volumes, price hikes, growth in
Scrip Details bauxite business and possible turnaround in the power segment,
Mkt Cap (` cr) 5,947
we expect GMDC’s revenues and earnings to post a CAGR of
BVPS (`) 64.3
27.1% and 23.7% to `2636.2 crore and `745.3 crore, respectively
by FY14. Being the sole trader of lignite and other minerals in the
O/s Shares (Cr) 31.8
state of Gujarat, GMDC enjoys assured off-take and significant
Av Vol (Lacs) 0.9
pricing power, thereby ensuring long term revenue visibility.
52 Week H/L 213/151
Div Yield (%) 1.5 Visibility of higher lignite volume and pricing power provides
STOCK POINTER
FVPS (`) 2.0 significant revenue and earnings growth
On the back of commencement of new lignite mines and the management's ability to
Shareholding Pattern scale up production at the existing mines, GMDC's lignite segment has witnessed a
robust production growth of ~7.3% CAGR over the period of 5 years from 2007 to
Shareholders % 2012. Going forward, we expect this segment to grow at a CAGR of 13.5% from
Promoters 74.0 FY12-FY14 aided by the commissioning of the new mine - Umarsar and healthy
DIIs 12.8 production growth from existing mines. Additionally, on the back of being the sole
player and absence of coal mines in the region of Gujarat, GMDC enjoys significant
FIIs 6.8
pricing power. This can be reiterated from the fact that GMDC has been able to
Public 6.5 increase lignite prices at a CAGR of 14.5% since FY07-FY12, enabling it to easily
Total 100 offset cost pressures.
GMDC. vs. Sensex
Power business-worst already factored in
Due to technical and operational issues at its 250 MW (Kutch, Gujarat) lignite based
thermal power plant, GMDC has seen a sharp decline in its PLF (40%) leading to
lower revenues. The company is facing issues with the bellow in the boiler, which
has been replaced 19 times till date. However, with current replacement working
properly and plans to outsource O&M operations, we expect the loss making power
business to stage a turnaround latest by FY14. We have factored in a PLF of 55%
and 69% for FY13 and FY14 respectively.
Key Financials (` in Cr)
Net EPS Growth RONW ROCE P/E EV/EBITDA
Y/E Mar EBITDA PAT EPS
Revenue (%) (%) (%) (x) (x)
2011 1414.8 654.0 374.8 11.8 34.0 22.4 33.7 15.9 9.0
2012 1630.7 760.4 486.8 15.3 29.9 23.8 35.7 12.2 7.7
2013E 2154.4 1003.1 603.4 19.0 23.9 23.8 36.8 9.9 5.9
2014E 2636.2 1238.9 745.3 23.4 23.5 23.5 36.9 8.0 4.8
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2. In addition, GMDC holds a renewable energy portfolio of 105.5 MW, which
predominantly consist of wind power assets (100.5 MW) besides a 5 MW solar power
plant. In the wind power segment, the company plans to enhance its capacity by 50
MW annually taking the capacity to 200.5 MW by 2014 at an investment of ~ ` 600
crore.
Bauxite mining and other business to add further value
Besides lignite, GMDC is also engaged in the mining of minerals like bauxite,
manganese, limestone, multi metal etc. On the back of ramp up in production at
Gadhsisa mines, we expect bauxite segment revenues to grow at a CAGR of 57.7% to
`193 crore over the forecast period. The other businesses are at an emerging stage
and expected to take considerable time to prosper.
GMDC and NALCO has formed a 26:74 JV to set up an alumina plant and aluminum
smelter project in Kutch, Gujarat at an investment of `12,000 crore. GMDC is
expected to invest ` 170 crore in cash and ` 170 crore in the form of annual bauxite
supply of ~ 3 MMT. Post commissioning of operations in FY16, this is likely to
generate additional revenue of ` 200 crore for the company with an operating margin
of 40%.
Valuation
At the CMP of `187, GMDC is trading at 5.9x and 4.8x its estimated EV/ EBITDA for
FY13 and FY14, respectively. We initiate coverage on GMDC as a BUY with a Price
Objective of ` 255 (6.5x FY14 EV/EBITDA) over a period of 18 months. Considering
the increasing production, adequate reserves life of its mines and pricing power, we
expect GMDC to continue to register robust growth. The bauxite mining business is
also witnessing good growth and the JV with Nalco for setting up an alumina plant and
aluminum smelter project, augurs well in terms of long term revenue visibility.
However, we have not factored any business revenue from this JV in our earning
model.
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3. Company Background
Being a sole trader of minerals in Gujarat, Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation
Limited (GMDC) enjoys a dominant position for mining lignite and other minerals in
Gujarat. Besides lignite, it mines minerals like bauxite, fluorspar, ball clays, silica sand
and manganese.
GMDC’s customer mix is diversified with power segment contributing to 51% of sales
and rest of the demand coming from various other sectors like cement, paper, soda
ash and chemicals, bricks and ceramics, textiles, and others.
Business Verticals
Source: GMDC, Ventura Research
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4. Sector wise demand for Lignite (%)
Others
Ceramic 14%
s&
Bricks
10%
Power
Textile 51%
15%
Cement
10%
Source: GMDC, Ventura Research
Visibility of higher lignite volume and pricing power provides
significant revenue and earnings growth
On the back of commencement of new lignite mines and the management's ability to
scale up production at the existing mines, GMDC's lignite segment has witnessed a
robust production growth of ~7.3% CAGR over the period of 5 years from 2007 to
2012. Going forward, we expect this segment to grow at a CAGR of 13.5% from FY12-
FY14 aided by the commissioning of the new mine - Umarsar and healthy production
growth from existing mines.
Additionally, being the sole player in the market and absence of coal mines in the
region of Gujarat, GMDC enjoys significant pricing power. This can be reiterated from
the fact that GMDC has been able to increase lignite prices at a CAGR of 14.5% since
FY07-FY12, enabling it to easily offset cost pressures.
Lignite Production & Growth (%) Lignite Revenue & Growth (%)
16 30% 2500.00 45.0%
25% 40.0%
14
20% 2000.00
12 35.0%
15%
10% 30.0%
10
Rs.Crore
1500.00
(In. MT)
5% 25.0%
8
0% 20.0%
6 1000.00
-5% 15.0%
4 -10%
500.00 10.0%
-15%
2 5.0%
-20%
0 -25% 0.00 0.0%
FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13E FY 14E FY 11 FY 12 FY 13E FY 14E
Lignite Business Growth (%) RHS Lignite Revenue Growth (%)
Source: GMDC, Ventura Research Source: GMDC, Ventura Research
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5. Details of Lignite mines
Geological Mineable
Production Rated R/P
Mines Names Type Location Reserves Reserves
(in.MT) Capacity Ratio
(in.MT) (in.MT)
Panandhro Mine OC Kutch 112 109.0 2.6 3.0 41.9
Raj Pardhi OC Bhaurch 18.08 12.5 0.9 1.0 13.9
Mata no Madh OC Bhuj 48.92 33.9 3.6 3.0 9.4
Tadkeshwar OC Mandvi 48.92 33.9 2.2 2.5 15.4
Bhavnagar OC Bhavnagar 107.54 69.6 2.1 3.0 33.2
Umarsar OC Kutch 24.0 24.0
Source: GMDC, Ventura Research
Expanded capacity of Bhavnagar mines to commence operation in the next six
months
GMDC's Bhavnagar mine has shown an impressive production growth of 76.2%
CAGR to 2.1 MT for the period of 2009-2012. By FY14 this is expected to increase to
3.5 MT. The company plans to eventually increase this to 5 MT over the medium term
and expects government approval over the next couple of quarters.
To improve the performance of Bhavnagar mines, GMDC has planned to set up a
pyrite removal plant with the capacity of 1.5 MMT, which will help in lowering the
sulphuric content in lignite from 5% to 1%. This would help in increasing the average
calorific value to a minimum of 4500 Kcal from 3000 Kcal, leading to better
realizations.
Production at new mines to offset the declining production from its largest mine
at Panandhro
Despite declining production at its largest mine Panandhro from 3.6 MT in FY09 to
2.5 MT in FY12, other mines like Raj pardi, Mata-no-Madh and Tadkeshwar mines has
shown a impressive ramp up in its production thereby ensuring significant volume
growth.
Reduced volumes from the Panandhro mine have been effectively replaced by the
enhanced production at Mata-no-Madh mines. Further, GMDC has applied for
increasing the production capacity at Mata-no- Madh to ~ 4.8 MT from current 3.5 MT
and expects to get an approval in the next 5- 6 months. Post approval, the company
is likely to witness significant ramp up in production fuelling future growth.
To ensure long term growth and reserve addition, GMDC is all set to commission a
new mine, Umarsar by the end of FY13 with 24 mt reserves and mining life of 24
years. In line with the management’s estimation, we expect Umarsar production to be
0.1 MT and 1 MT in FY13 and FY14, respectively. In addition, the company is also
planning to open up two new mines named Dhedadi and Akirimoto, awaiting
Government approvals and is expected to commission in the next three year.
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6. Lignite production
16.0
Lignite
14.0 Production to
12.0 grow despite
lowered
10.0 production from
(In. MT)
8.0 Panandhro
mines
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E
Panandhro Mata-no-Madh Tadkeshwar
Bhavnagar Umarsar Raj Pardhi
Source: GMDC, Ventura Research
Additionally, on the back of being the sole player in the market and absence of coal
mines in the region of Gujarat, GMDC enjoys significant pricing power.
Comfortably insulated from any price correction
Presently, GMDC sells lignite at a discount of 15-20% to Indian coal of equivalent
calorific value (3,600kcal/kg). In view of rapidly increasing demand for energy and the
massive need for coal, there is the least possibility of any drop in coal prices. Further,
in the absence of coal mining in the state of Gujarat, increased transportation costs of
domestic coal from the nearest coal field of WCL located 750 kms away in Nagpur
(Maharashtra), makes lignite an economical choice compared to coal. This provides
the company with sufficient head room to take further price hike in the near future,
thereby ensuring profitability.
Lignite by its nature cannot be stored for more than 7 days and hence the company
mines the lignite only after off take contracts are signed and money for the shipment
has been received. This insulates the company from any off take risk, besides keeping
inventory at negligible levels.
Power business-worst already factored in
Due to technical and operational issues at its 250 MW (Kutch, Gujarat) lignite based
thermal power plant, GMDC has seen a sharp decline in its PLF (40%) leading to
lower revenues. The company is facing issues with the bellow in the boiler, which has
been replaced 19 times last year. However, with current replacement working properly
and plans to outsource O&M operations, we expect the loss making power business to
stage a turnaround latest by FY14. We have factored in a PLF of 55% and 69% for
FY13 and FY14 respectively.
In addition, GMDC holds a renewable energy portfolio of 105.5 MW, which
predominantly consist of wind power assets (100.5 MW) besides a 5 MW solar power
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7. plant. In the wind power segment, the company plans to enhance its capacity by 50
MW every year taking the capacity to 200.5 MW by 2014 at an investment of ~ ` 600
crore.
Bellow issues stands resolved, PLF set to increase
GMDC’s 250 MW thermal power plant reached peak production in FY10. Post that the
power plant has been witnessing continuous decline in revenue and profitability on the
back of bellow (type of expansion joints in the boiler) replacement issues. Last year,
the bellow has been replaced 19 times. Each time, the company loses 5 to 7 days of
plant availability on account of bellow replacement reducing the PLF significantly.
However the bellow issue has been resolved and it is expected that the power plants
will start functioning optimally in the next few months.
Power Revenue & EBITDA Margin (%)
300.0 40.0
30.0
250.0 20.0
10.0
200.0 0.0
(Rs.Crore)
-10.0
150.0
-20.0
100.0 -30.0
-40.0
50.0 -50.0
-60.0
0.0 -70.0
FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY13E FY14E
Revenue EBIT Margin RHS (%)
Source: GMDC, Ventura Research
In order to prevent future mishaps and stabilize operation at its current power plant,
GMDC plans to outsource its O&M activity to third party power generators. The
company has invited bids for the same and GIPCL and Lanco Power are among the
forerunners. The company expects to complete the process in the next 5-6 months.
The company hopes that this step would help in improving the PLF of the power plant.
We expect the company's PLF to grow to 55% and 69% in FY13 and FY14
respectively from the current 40%. Accordingly, we expect the revenues of the power
segment to grow at a CAGR of 15.1 % to ` 271.0 crore over the forecast period and
lower the losses through increased PLF.
Investments in renewable power to enhance generation portfolio
Currently, GMDC’s 105.5 MW renewable power portfolio includes the recently
commissioned 5 MW solar power plant at Kutch. The company has a capacity of
100.5 MW in the wind power segment which it plans to enhance by 50MW annually
taking the capacity of 200.5 MW by 2014 at an investment of ~ ` 600 crore. We expect
the plants to continue to operate at PLFs of 20-22% and boost revenue and
profitability.
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8. Bauxite mining and other business to add further value
Besides lignite, GMDC is also engaged in the mining of minerals like bauxite,
manganese, limestone, multi metal etc. On the back of ramp up in production at
Gadhsisa mines, we expect bauxite segment revenues to grow at a CAGR of 57.7% to
`193 crore over the forecast period. The other businesses are at an emerging stage
and expected to take considerable time to prosper.
GMDC and NALCO has formed a 26:74 JV to set up an alumina plant and aluminum
smelter project in Kutch, Gujarat at an investment of `12,000 crore. GMDC is
expected to invest ` 170 crore in cash and ` 170 crore in the form of annual bauxite
supply of ~ 3 MMT. Post commissioning of operations in FY16, this is likely to
generate additional revenue of ` 200 crore for the company with an operating margin
of 40%.
GMDC also derives revenues from the mining of bauxite, manganese ore, fluorspar,
silica, limestone among others. Though their contribution to revenues are miniscule
(compared to lignite and power), however the immense growth opportunities and
GMDC’s continuous efforts to monetize them makes these minerals lucrative from the
long term perspective.
Ramp up in bauxite volumes, JV with NALCO to boost revenues
On the back of ramp up in production at the existing mine, we expect the volumes to
grow from the current 0.9 MT to 2.0 MT by FY14. This should help revenues from this
increased volume to grow at a CAGR of 57.7 % to `193 crore by FY14.
Bauxite Production & Growth (%) Bauxite Revenue & Growth (%)
2.5 80.0% 250 90.0%
70.0% 80.0%
2.0 200 70.0%
60.0%
60.0%
50.0%
Rs.Crore
1.5 150
(In. MT)
50.0%
40.0%
40.0%
1.0 30.0% 100
30.0%
20.0%
0.5 50 20.0%
10.0% 10.0%
0.0 0.0% 0 0.0%
FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13E FY 14E FY 11 FY 12 FY 13E FY 14E
Bauxite Business Growth (%) RHS Bauxite Revenue Growth (%)
Source: GMDC, Ventura Research Source: GMDC, Ventura Research
GMDC and NALCO has formed a 26:74 JV to set up an alumina plant and aluminum
smelter project in Kutch, Gujarat at an investment of `12,000 crore. GMDC is
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9. expected to invest ` 170 crore in cash and ` 170 crore in the form of annual bauxite
supply of ~ 3 MMT. Post commissioning of operations, GMDC is likely to witness a
sharp ramp up in bauxite volumes from the current 0.8 MMT to 5 MT by 2016. This is
likely to generate additional revenue of ` 200 crore for the company with an operating
margin of 40%.
Financial performance
Supported by higher volumes and prices, GMDC posted a revenue growth of 15.6% to
` 537 crore in Q4FY12. Operating profit in the same period was higher by 21% and
stood at ` 246.1 crore led by better pricing mix. Consequently, EBITDA margin stood
at 45.8%, higher by 190 bps yoy. Lower interest costs on account of major debt
repayment & lower effective tax rate further boosted the net profit which grew by 41%
to ` 158.6 crore in Q4FY12.
Quarterly Financial Performance
Particulars Q4FY12 Q4FY11 FY12 FY11
Net Sales 537.0 464.6 1630.7 1421.0
Growth % 15.6 14.8
Total Expenditure 290.9 260.8 870.2 767.0
EBIDTA 246.1 203.8 760.4 654.0
EBDITA Margin % 45.8 43.9 46.6 46.0
Depreciation 32.0 29.4 108.3 93.0
EBIT (EX OI) 214.1 174.3 652.1 561.1
Other Income 23.7 21.9 73.4 38.8
EBIT 237.8 196.3 725.5 599.9
Margin % 44.3 42.2 44.5 42.2
Interest 0.9 4.8 7.8 15.3
Exceptional items 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
PBT 236.8 191.4 717.6 584.6
Margin % 44.1 41.2 44.0 41.1
Provision for Tax 78.3 78.7 230.9 209.8
PAT 158.6 112.7 486.8 374.8
PAT Margin (%) 29.5 24.3 29.8 26.4
Source: GMDC , Ventura Research
Financial outlook
On the back of ramp up of volumes at Bhavnagar and Tadkeshwar mines, new mines
coming on stream and significant price hikes, we expect GMDC’s revenues to grow at
a CAGR of 27.1% to ` 2636.2 crore by FY14. Consequently, we forecast the operating
profit to grow at a CAGR of 27.6% over FY12-14 to ` 1238.9 crore. While, EBITDA
margins would remain flat at 46% over the forecast period with upside risk. In our
view, the worst in power business is already factored in and we believe the power
business to return to profitability in FY14. Interest costs are also likely to come down
significantly due to major debt repayment. Consequently, the PAT would grow at a
CAGR of 23.7% to ` 745.3 crore by FY14 as compared to `487 crore in FY12.
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10. Revenue, EBIDTA & PAT Margin (%)
3000 60%
2500 50%
2000 40%
Rs.Crore
1500 30%
1000 20%
500 10%
0 0%
FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13E FY 14E
Revenue EBITDA Margin (%) PAT Margin (%)
Source: GMDC, Ventura Research
Valuation
At the CMP of `187, GMDC is trading at 5.9x and 4.8x its estimated EV/ EBITDA for
FY13 and FY14, respectively. We initiate coverage on GMDC as a BUY with a Price
Objective of ` 255 (6.5x FY14 EV/EBITDA) over a period of 18 months. Considering
the increasing production, adequate reserves life of its mines and pricing power, we
expect GMDC to continue to register robust growth. The bauxite mining business is
also witnessing good growth and the JV with Nalco for setting up an alumina plant and
aluminum smelter project, augurs well in terms of long term revenue visibility.
However, we have not factored any business revenue from this JV in our earning
model.
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11. P/E
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Mar-02 Mar-04 Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-12
CMP 6.5X 9.75X 13X 16.25X 19.5X
Source: GMDC , Ventura Research
P/BV
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Mar-02 Mar-04 Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-12
CMP 0.75X 1.375X 2X 2.625X 3.25X
Source: GMDC , Ventura Research
EV/EBITDA
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
Mar-02 Mar-04 Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-12
EV 2.5X 4.16X 5.82X 7.48X 9.14X
Source: GMDC , Ventura Research
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12. Financials and Projections
Y/E March, Fig in Rs. Cr FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013e FY 2014e Y/E March, Fig in Rs. Cr FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013e FY 2014e
Profit & Loss Statement Per Share Data (Rs)
Net Sales 1414.8 1630.7 2154.4 2636.2 EPS 11.8 15.3 19.0 23.4
% Chg. 15.3 32.1 22.4 Cash EPS 14.7 18.7 22.9 28.1
Total Expenditure 760.8 870.2 1151.3 1397.3 DPS 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
% Chg. 14.4 32.3 21.4 Book Value 52.5 64.3 79.8 99.8
EBITDA 654.0 760.4 1003.1 1238.9 Capital, Liquidity, Returns Ratio
EBITDA Margin % 46.2 46.6 46.6 47.0 Debt / Equity (x) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other Income 38.8 73.4 38.1 39.3 Current Ratio (x) 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.5
Exceptional items 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ROE (%) 22.4 23.8 23.8 23.5
PBDIT 692.8 833.8 1041.2 1278.3 ROCE (%) 33.7 35.7 36.8 36.9
Depreciation 93.0 108.3 126.4 148.7 Dividend Yield (%) 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
Interest 15.3 7.8 2.0 2.0 Valuation Ratio (x)
PBT 584.6 717.6 912.8 1127.6 P/E 15.9 12.2 9.9 8.0
Tax Provisions 209.8 230.9 309.4 382.2 P/BV 3.6 2.9 2.3 1.9
Reported PAT 374.8 486.8 603.4 745.3 EV/Sales 4.2 3.6 2.7 2.2
PAT Margin (%) 26.5 29.8 28.0 28.3 EV/EBIDTA 9.0 7.7 5.9 4.8
Efficiency Ratio (x)
Manpower cost / Sales (%) 10.7 6.6 5.8 5.8 Inventory (days) 17.6 14.6 15.0 15.0
Other Exp / Sales (%) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 Debtors (days) 9.2 9.9 10.0 10.0
Tax Rate (%) 35.9 32.2 33.9 33.9 Creditors (days) 94.9 118.7 110.0 110.0
Balance Sheet Cash Flow statement
Share Capital 63.6 63.6 63.6 63.6 Profit After Tax 374.8 486.8 603.4 745.3
Reserves & Surplus 1606.2 1982.1 2474.6 3109.0 Depreciation 93.0 108.3 126.4 148.7
Minority Interest & Others 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Working Capital Changes -56.0 -12.4 -194.4 -129.7
Total Loans 133.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Others -1.7 -99.6 0.0 0.0
Deferred Tax Iiability 253.7 293.0 293.0 293.0 Operating Cash Flow 410.0 483.1 535.4 764.3
Total Liabilities 2056.5 2338.7 2831.2 3465.6 Capital Expenditure -269.2 -336.2 -426.0 -530.5
Goodwill 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Change in Investment 0.0 0.0 0.0 -132.6
Gross Block 2236.2 2584.9 3010.2 3540.2 Cash Flow from Investing -269.3 -336.2 -426.0 -663.1
Less: Acc. Depreciation 718.8 827.1 953.6 1102.2 Proceeds from equity issue 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Block 1517.4 1757.8 2056.6 2437.9 Inc/ Dec in Debt -83.0 -133.0 0.0 0.0
Capital Work in Progress 18.8 6.3 7.0 7.5 Dividend and DDT -110.9 0.0 -110.9 -110.9
Investments 132.6 132.6 132.6 265.3 Cash Flow from Financing -193.9 -133.0 -110.9 -110.9
Net Current Assets 376.4 442.0 635.0 755.0 Net Change in Cash -53.2 13.9 -1.5 -9.7
Misc.Expenditure 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Opening Cash Balance 95.8 42.6 56.5 55.0
Total Assets 2056.5 2338.7 2831.2 3465.6 Closing Cash Balance 42.6 56.5 55.0 45.2
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