Rafael Popper TAFI workshop

The Future Internet Delphi (R. Popper) – Towards a Future Internet – Final Public Workshop, Brussels, 22.11.2010
The Future Internet Delphi
Results of the Delphi Study
TOWARDS ATOWARDS A
Rafael Popper
University of Manchester
Final Public Workshop, Brussels, 22 November 2010

Delphi Round 1 – Process
• 235 respondents
• 3 sections = 48 questions
 Section 1 = 19 questions
• 235 respondents
• 3 sections = 48 questions
• 110 respondents
• 4 sections = 12 Qs
 Scenario 1 = 3 questions
• 110 respondents
• 4 sections = 12 Qs

The Internet will permeate most aspects of our lives

Internet will be vital for the vast majority of business functions

Low cost & user-friendliness are key for a "socially-positive" Internet

General usage
1. The Internet will become vital for the vast majority of people
2. Between 11-50% of a person’s day will be directly influenced by the Internet
3. The Internet will permeate most aspects of our lives
4. Socio-economic use of the Internet will by far exceed political usage
5. Most government services will use the Internet to interact with people
6. The Internet will impact most stages of learning and education processes
7. Politicians and governments will significantly use the Internet to influence politics
Business usage
8. The Internet will be vital for the vast majority of business functions
Users
9. Wealth and education level will remain important causes of the digital divide
10. Internet use will reach 75% of the EU population
11. Low cost and user-friendliness are key issues for a "socially-positive" Internet
Functionality and human interface expectations
12. Mobile Internet will be available throughout the EU
13. Most citizens will trust online transactions and financial services
14. The Internet will not achieve acceptable levels of privacy or crime prevention
15. The Internet will not be secure and reliable enough for vital services
16. The average Internet use across the EU will exceed watching broadcast TV
17. Internet may become the main TV channel
18. Image recognition and gesture detection may be widely used in the Internet
19. The Internet will not be protected from critical failures or cyber-attacks

Attempts will be made to apply more political control to the Internet

The Internet governance may not need to go to UN levels

Exclusion
1. The Internet may or may not contribute to lessen the Exclusion Gap
2. Access costs and complexity will be key contributors to the Digital Poverty
Sociological and psychological behaviours
3. Internet cultures will tend to be creative
4. The Internet will form new adjunct to society with increased social interactions
5. Jobs and the economy are more likely to be dependent on the Internet
Global issues
6. Attempts will be made to apply more political control to the Internet.
7. Global and economic conditions will accelerate Internet usage in many areas
8. The Internet may or may not challenge capitalism and the corporate economy
9. The Internet may or may not challenge the global balance in trade and power
Governance
10. New governance structures will be needed for the Internet
11. The Internet governance may not need to go to United Nations levels

By 2020, Internet services will NOT be mainly paid for by
subscription and advertising

By 2020, addressing poverty and social inequality will drive the
take up of the Internet

Evolution
1. The Internet may or may not see revolutionary changes
2. The Internet will be a convenience, lifestyle and information management tool
3. The appearance of multiple “Internets” will certainly surprise many
4. The Internet may have tiers of value and privacy/security
5. User generated content may dominate the Internet
6. The “Internet of things” will become increasingly dominant
7. Internet services will not be mainly paid for by subscription and advertising
8. The Internet may be able to understand users’ requirements (using semantics)
9. Charging for Internet applications which are "free" today will be controversial
10. An Internet divided into paid-for and a few free services will be controversial
11. The Internet will be the TV channel of choice, with a virtual VCR
Drivers of success
12. e-literacy will be a key driver of the take up of the Internet
13. General levels of education will be a key driver in the take up of the Internet
14. Addressing poverty and social inequality will drive the take up of the Internet
Inhibitors of success
15. Uncertainty over use of personal data and privacy will inhibit Internet use
16. New and unexpected threats may inhibit Internet use
17. Between 10-20% of the population will refuse to use the Internet
18. Government interventions to neutralize cyber-crime may inhibit Internet success

Scenario 1: Smooth Trip
• The knowledge-based internet economy. The aim of the internet is to enable all
facets of work as the foundation of a new era in the world’s development, a
Knowledge Economy.
Scenario 2: A Green Internet Society
• Going Green - the green internet economy. A hot, wet internet world. The global
climate crisis has hit everyday life and can no longer be pushed aside. It has
become so threatening that the internet is harnessed to help save the planet.
Scenario 3: A commercially controlled consumer world
• Commercial Big Brother. The internet becomes a purely commercial channel for
entertainment, retail commerce and advertising – “we have ways of making you buy”.
It has become so threatening that the internet is harnessed to help save the planet.
Scenario 4: Power to the People
• Power to the e-people - Emergence of the e-Demos: a Flat Earth scenario.
Ordinary people take the helm. User and e-consumer rights rule, building their own
environments and applications.

Most Likely
2nd
Most
Desirable
Most Likely
2nd
Most
Desirable
Least Likely
1st
Most
Desirable
Least Likely
1st
Most
Desirable

Rafael Popper
University of Manchester
rafael.popper@manchester.ac.uk
Popper R. and Forge, S.
(2010), Towards a
Future Internet:
Delphi Survey Round 1
Results, A report to EC
DG Information Society
and Media, Oxford:
Oxford Internet Institute
and SCF
Associates,48pp.
Popper R. and Forge, S.
(2010), Towards a
Future Internet:
and Media, Oxford:
and SCF
Associates,48pp.
Popper R., Forge, S. and
Blackman, C. (2010),
Towards a Future
Internet:
and Media, Oxford:
and SCF
Associates,45pp.
Popper R., Forge, S. and
Blackman, C. (2010),
Towards a Future
Internet:
and Media, Oxford:
and SCF
Associates,45pp.

Rafael Popper TAFI workshop

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