Asli Kala jadu, Black magic specialist in Pakistan Or Kala jadu expert in Egy...
Â
How to Predict the Firing of Football Managers
1. How to Predict Firings of
Football Managers
A Freakonomics Approach
Bernard Leong
A Pragmatic Idealist
http://bleongcw.typepad.com
Saturday, February 28, 2009
2. Earthquakes
P (E) ⌠E âB
B â [1.8, 2.2]
Introduction to Self-Organized Criticality & Earthquakes (Winslow, Michigan)
Saturday, February 28, 2009
3. Self Organized Criticality (SOC)
The Sandpile Analogy
Bak, Tang and Weisenfeld
(1989)
Saturday, February 28, 2009
4. SOC implies scale invariance and âsimpleâ microscopic
mechanism in general.
Ricepile
Earthquakes History
Model
Objects Soil Rice People
Self- Formation of Formation of the Formation of a
Organization tectonic plates Pyramid social hierarchy
Economical,
Wave Newtonian
Mechanism Social & Political
Mechanics Dynamics
Interactions
Criticality Earthquake Avalanche Political Change
Saturday, February 28, 2009
5. SOC in Social Sciences
âą Self Organized Criticality has been introduced
to economics in various contexts:
âą Paul Krugman on economic geography &
business cycles (1996).
âą T. Schelling on segregation of people in cities.
âą P. Bak et al on turnover of commodities.
Saturday, February 28, 2009
6. SOC in history?
âą Saslaw and Tuck (2000) looked at
tenure lengths (reigns) of Roman,
Chinese, Korean emperors, Doges of
Venice and Popes.
âą They found power law distributions
and suggested SOC as an explanation
correlated to political revolution and
change.
âą Their problem is that they do not
Saturday, February 28, 2009
7. If it works on earthquakes, and emperors,
why not try it on CEOs?
The data is available but expensive.
Saturday, February 28, 2009
8. So, I suggested the following dataset....
(From BBC sport)
Football Managers
Saturday, February 28, 2009
10. Ubiquitous?
Power Exponent
Law
English -1.98
â
Football
French -2.94
â
Football
Spanish -2.75
â
Football
Germany -2.51
â
Football
Europe -2.21
â
Chairman
National -2.92
â
Coaches
American Cricket? Tennis?
-2.63
â
Baseball
American -2.08
â
Football
Saturday, February 28, 2009
11. A microscopic model
âą Letâs try to use a simple diffusion model:
âą Step 1: Initialize 20 managers with two attributes:
reputation and tenure length
âą Step 2: Each managers play against each other, using
the simple roundrobin and a simple scoring system.
âą Step 3: Use a threshold as a criteria to decide
turnover (i.e. ïŹring the manager).
âą Step 4: Run it for a hundred years and optimize
with different reputation and tenure length
Saturday, February 28, 2009
12. Criteria for Turnover
âą If a managerâs reputation falls below 0 due to
losing games, he is ïŹred.
âą If a managerâs reputation has gone beyond the
maximum, he is poached.
âą If a managerâs tenure length has reached the
tenure-threshold (say 30 years), he retires.
You are
fired !!!
Saturday, February 28, 2009
13. Letâs see how badly my simulations ïŹt the observations
Saturday, February 28, 2009
14. Letâs see how badly my simulations ïŹt the observations
Saturday, February 28, 2009
15. The issue about the English League
Saturday, February 28, 2009
16. The issue about the English League
Saturday, February 28, 2009
17. The issue about the English League
Saturday, February 28, 2009
18. The issue about the English League
Saturday, February 28, 2009
19. The issue about the English League
Saturday, February 28, 2009
20. The issue about the English League
Saturday, February 28, 2009
21. The issue about the English League
Saturday, February 28, 2009
22. The issue about the English League
Saturday, February 28, 2009
23. The issue about the English League
Saturday, February 28, 2009
24. The issue about the English League
Saturday, February 28, 2009
25. Something happened in the 1960s....
Wage Cap of players
removed
Start of
TV coverage
Saturday, February 28, 2009
26. Economics and Football
Managers
âą First,âšcompetitiveâšmarketâšforcesâšmightâšbringâšsportsâšleaguesâštoâšaâš
pointâšofâšmaximumâšefïŹciencyâšrelatedâštoâšself-organizedâšcriticality.âš
AâšteamâšwishesâštoâšmaximizeâšitsâšproïŹt.âšThisâšmeansâšmaintainingâš
attendanceâšatâšgames,âštogetherâšwithâšmaximizingâštelevisionâšandâš
advertisingâšrevenues.
âą Second, competition in a sports league is a zero sum game
where what matters is relative, not absolute performance.
Managers, therefore, ïŹnd themselves involved in an arms
race and subject to the Red Queen principle that the more
things change, the more they stay the same
Saturday, February 28, 2009
27. Acknowledgements
âą Toke Aidt and Daniel Sgroi, Faculty of Economics
âą William Saslaw
âą Laura Webster
âą Thomas Down
âą And the many people who I convey and test this
crazy idea to....
Saturday, February 28, 2009
28. âThe best way to predict the future is to invent it.â
- Alan Kay
Saturday, February 28, 2009