long financial trend

1. July 16,2011
“Give me a place to stand, and I will move the Earth.” Archimedes
The first thing I do when trying to look for investment or trading ideas in the exchange
trade markets is look for a place to stand. What is out there that I can confidently use a
base belief from which to judge all the moving parts of the global economy and markets.
This seems to be especially necessary in the current circumstances.
December of 2008 I started with a very strong belief that the Fed would maintain the
zero interest rate (zirp) policy until the 2010 legislative elections at a minimum. That
bedrock belief at the time served me well as a starting point for developing a market
strategy.
That is no longer a solid base from which to drive ideas but finding a replacement is
proving a challenge. I began by scanning through the charts and here are three gave me a
base view I believe is solid.
Gold: This chart goes back 2 years but the real uptrend goes back much further than as
the 2nd chart shows. The lower chart begins in the late 1800’s with $16 up to $1562 per
oz. This chart is a log chart and each grid line is a double in price. That is an uptrend!

2. This next chart is the ADXY or Asian Dollar Index comprised of a number of
prominent asia-pacific currencies. The chart is in a strong steady uptrend and
almost perfectly matches the 2 year Gold chart.
ADXY Index
The third solid trend is the relentless strength of the Swiss Franc over the dollar and the
Euro.
The common denominator among these three is that they all are alternatives to the USD ,
Euro, and Yen bloc ofof developed market currencies that have served as the main
trading currencies for the last decade and a half. The developed world currencies are
steadily being debased as a backdoor mechanism for dealing with poisonous levels of
debt. Devaluation and inflation are the tools of choice for cowardly politicians Wealth is
seeking asylum and Gold and the Swiss have historically filled that roll and now the
emergence of Asia economies and un-indebted currencies promises to add a little growth
to a non dollar/euro portfolio.
I do not see the anti US/Euro currency sentiment changing in any material way given the
spinelessness of the current political leadership in Europeand the US. Until the equivalent

3. of a Volcker backed by the resolve of a Reagan emerges in western politics these 3 trends will
continue. Proof of the spreading doubts about the value of fiat currencies backed by promises
from dissolute legislators and toothless central bankers is visible in the next chart. Declining
official global gold reserves which declined for 40 years have turned up. Non US and European
governments are now accumulating gold in their reserve portfolios. These counties are forgoing
current interest income in order to protect the real purchasing power of their national savings.
Central bankers and treasurers are the most inside of insiders and they are voting with their feet.
The simple approach taking advantage of this data is to buy gold. A reasonable strategy.
But there are negatives. First even though the strong gold trend has been pronounced
since Nixon took the dollar off of the gold standard, there still have been long periods of
flat or correcting prices which provide no return. A second negative is that gold must be
sold in order to realize any gains since it has no cash flow to the holder.
The Swiss currency does offer a small interest return but is at risk of political attempt to
protect Swiss industry by weakening the historic prudence of Swiss monetary authorities.
In fact this past year the Swiss Central Bank took billions of dollars in losses as it tried to
hold down the value of the CHF. Such behavior is a worrying crack in the foundations of
CHF integrity.
The ADXY Index offers up some interesting possibilities. Comprised of CNY, HKD,
INR, IDR, KRW, MYR, PHP, SGD, TWD, THB the index is therefore still a product
back by fiat paper currencies with the attendant risks of all paper money. The difference
is in the fiscal, debt, and growth circumstances of economies. Over 60% of the global
population is in this region and yet only around 25 to 30% of global capital is invested

4. there. The next several decades is going to see these ratios balance out considerably. The
west is hobbled under excessive debt and will not be able to match the pace of emerging
growth. Higher growth and far less debt will support better returns and much better
protection of purchasing power of these currencies. These markets will be stronger and
grow faster. Damon Runyanonce wrote: “The race goes not always to the swift, northe
battle to the strong, but that’s the way to bet.”
I agree with Damon. Gold and the Asian currencies are the way to bet over the next few
years. Outright longs and relative value trades should be a staple of the portfolio. Short
positions will viable at times of course but, those should be viewed as trades only. The
default view is bullish.
As a reminder of the dangers of fiat money look at this last chart. The orange is the S&P
composite nominal gain since 1870. These are pretty impressive gains. The green is the
real change in the S&P composite corrected for the destruction of the purchasing power
of the dollar over the same period. The difference is robbery without a gun by political
charlatans. It is no accident that congressman begins and ends with “con man”.
The next step I plan to take is to develop some kind of rotation strategy to stay long the
strongest 4 or 5 members of the ADXY along with gold and rotating as necessary. A

5. second approach will be to do the same thing but substitute solid dividend paying equities
of those same countries in addition to just currency exposure. The objective is to earn a
solid return ( say 10% ) above the rate of dollar inflation on a base portfolio. The shorter
term trading strategies being developed can then provide the real kick into more
ambitious return goals.