Measuring Social Media ROI - Econometrics

SOCIAL MEDIA ROI: CAN WE MEASURE THE
IMPACT OF SOCIAL BRAND CONVERSATIONS?

HOW TO MONETIZE THE CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE

Copyright Bottom Line Analytics, LLC - All Rights Reserved, 2013 1

MONETIZING SOCIAL MEDIA CONVERSATIONS

SOCIAL MEDIA ENGAGEMENT INDEX

APPLYING THE SEI℠ METRIC

1. IDENTIFYING CATEGORY DRIVERS AND CONVERSATIONS IMPACTING BRAND ENGAGEMENT

2. QUANTIFYING THE IMPACT OF SOCIAL MEDIA

3. DEVELOPING A CUSTOMER ACQUISITION STRATEGY BASED ON CONSUMER CONVERSATIONS
THAT DRIVE BRAND ENGAGEMENT

4. VALUING AND MONETIZING FACEBOOK MARKETING CAMPAIGNS

5. ENHANCING PROMOTION EXECUTION BASED ON CONSUMER ENGAGEMENT

ABOUT BOTTOM LINE ANALYTICS

Copyright Bottom Line Analytics, LLC and Next Generation Marketing Research - All Rights Reserved, 2013
2


• Bottom-Line Analytics and a North Carolina partner have developed an innovative new
consumer engagement metric called the “Social Engagement Index” or SEI
• When developing the SEI℠, our big “ahha moment” occurred when we realized that
since social media is a form of word-of-mouth, words and semantics, not sentiment
are the foundation for understanding consumer engagement with a brand!
• This knowledge was used to create a quantitative social media metric based on
Stance-Shift linguistics theory. (Stance Shift theory has been published and peer
reviewed)
• Uses the Social Media conversations about your Brand as input.
• Results in a quantitative engagement score that is a translation of his/her
“personal” and “emotional” relationship with a brand
• SEI is highly correlated with Brand sales (75% - 85%)

• The SEI is more actionable than current sentiment metrics since it is strongly correlated
with Brand sales

Copyright Bottom Line Analytics, LLC and Next Generation Marketing Research - All Rights Reserved, 2013 3

WHEN CALCULATING THE SEI℠ METRIC, BRAND CONVERSATIONS ARE SCORED
DIFFERENTLY BASED ON THEIR PERSONAL AND EMOTIONAL CONTENT

“I REALLY LOVE HOW MY BAGS FLY FREE WITH MY SOUTHWEST”
ENGAGEMENT
SCORE
“I LIKE THE EVERYDAY LOW RATES OF SOUTHWEST”

“I BOOKED A FLIGHT ON JET BLUE TODAY”

“THE DELTA FLIGHT ATTENDANT WAS NOT THAT HELPFUL”

“MY FLIGHT ON AMERICAN HAD THE RUDEST FLIGHT
ATTENDANTS YOU CAN IMAGINE”

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THE SEI PROCESS CONVERTS SOCIAL MEDIA CONVERSIONS USING STANCE SHIFT
THEORY TO CREATE A QUANTITATIVE METRIC - SEI℠

1. MINE ALL SOCIAL MEDIA CHANNELS FOR
SOCIAL MEDIA BRAND CONTEXT CONVERSATIONS, E.G.
CHANNELS BRAND MENTIONS

2. PARSE INTO POSITIVE & NEGATIVE REVIEW
POSITIVE NEGATIVE GROUPS. FURTHER DIVIDE INTO KEY TOPICS.
REVIEWS REVIEWS
3. DERIVE ENGAGEMENT INDEX FROM 30
LINGUISTIC RULES TO “SCORE” MINED
EMOTIONAL SCORE BRAND/TOPIC SOCIAL MEDIA
PERSONALIZATION SCORE

LOW MED HIGH CONVERSATIONS
High

Med
4. TIME CODE BY WEEK & AGGREGATE
METRICS
Low

8
SEI SCORE
6

4
POSITIVE NEGATIVE
SCORES SCORES 2

0
Per Per Per Per Per Per Per Per Per Per
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10


WHERE OTHER SOCIAL SENTIMENT METRICS FALL SHORT, THE SEI℠
SHOWS SUPERLATIVE CORRELATIONS TO BRAND SALES!

Comparison Of The Correlation To Sales For The SEI Metric Versus
Sentiment Metrics For The Six Leading Social Data Vendors

SOCIAL ENGAGEMENT INDEX (SEI )POS/NEG RATIO 82.9%

METRIC 6 POS/NEG RATIO 5.9%



METRIC 3 POS/NEG RATIO -3.2%



-20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%


SEI℠ HAS PROVEN LINKAGE WITH BRAND SALES

The Linkage & Correlation To Sales Over Time Shows That SEI Has Predictive Power



APPLYING THE SEI METRIC







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• WHEN WE LOOK CONSUMER ENGAGEMENT (SEI℠) WITH NATIONAL RESTAURANT CHAINS,
RESTAURANT A STANDS OUT AS A GIANT AMONG ITS COMPETITORS

Customer Engagement (SEI) by Restaurant Chain

19% 1% 16%

12% Restaurant A
10%
Restaurant B
Restaurant C
Restaurant D
Restaurant E
Restaurant F
43%


• ACROSS THE RESTAURANT, “HIGH QUALITY FOOD” AND “FRIENDLY SERVICE” CONVERSATIONS
DRIVE CONSUMER ENGAGEMENT TO AN AIRLINE

Restaurant Industry Conversations
Total Engagement (SEI) by Subject

High Quality Food

Friendly Service

Fresh Tasting Food

Quick Customer Service

Has a Wide Variety on the Menu

Good Value for the Price

A Good Place I Can Take My Children

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000

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• RESTAURANT “A” HAS THE HIGHEST OVERALL ENGAGEMENT WHEN CONSUMERS HAVE “HIGH
QUALITY FOOD” RELATED CONVERSATIONS

SEI Ratio – High Quality Food

Restaurant A

Restaurant B

Restaurant C

Restaurant D

Restaurant E

Restaurant F

- 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5
11

• RESTAURANT “A’S” COMMITMENT TO HIGH QUALITY FOOD IS DRIVING MUCH OF ITS OVERALL
ENGAGEMENT WITH CONSUMERS AND IS PROVIDING IT WITH A COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE

Relationship Between “High Quality Food” Conversations and Restaurant
6
Conversations

5 Restaurant A
SEI – High Quality Food

4

Restaurant D
3
Restaurant B
Restaurant F

2
Restaurant E
Restaurant C
1

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

SEI - Total Restaurants
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• WE FIND THAT CONVENTIONAL ADVERTISING HAS BOTH A “DIRECT IMPACT” ON SALES AND AN
“INDIRECT EFFECT” DUE TO ITS INFLUENCE ON SOCIAL MEDIA CONVERSATIONS AND THE SEI
• THE LARGE CONTRIBUTION FROM THE SEI℠ SUPPORTS THAT THIS IS A “WORD-OF-MOUTH” EFFECT

Net driven by media Marketing Contributions
8% Sub-model
3%
2% 2%
10%

5%
SEI
Engagement 20%

11%
67%

Base Sales Direct Alpha Brand Mass Media Direct Alpha Brand Digital Media
Direct Social Media Social Media on SNI Mass Media on SNI
Digital Media on SNI SNI Base

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• INSIGHTS WERE USED TO DEVELOP A DIGITAL CONTENT STRATEGY AND IN-STORE PROMOTIONS THAT
INCREASED SALES

Atmosphere
>14.0 = 466
0.6%
ToMeetPeople>
9.43 = 325
2.6% Most Important Positive Drivers:
Atmosphere
Place2HangOut <14.0 = 288
>5.46= 211 ToMeetPeople<
1.9% 1. Place to Hang Out
9.1% 9.63 = 188 2. For Meeting People
6.5%
Positive SEI
3. The Store Atmosphere
3.93 = 100 4. Beverage Products

To Meet People
>5.4 = 229
Place2HangOut
3.8%
<5.46 = 83 Beverage A
91.9% >6.4 = 271 Place2HangOut
7.7% >3.6 = 126
To Meet People 5.9% Beverage B
<5.4 = 85 >5.2 = 211.1
85.5% 1.6%
Beverage A
<6.4 = 74 Place2HangOut
77.8% <3.6 = 76
71.9% Beverage B
<5.2 = 67
70.3%

The tree starts with an average SEI score of 100; and each level indicates a higher or lower SEI based on an
SEI score for a topic. The percent represents the percent of the sample in each segment.
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• BY BUILDING A SALES RESPONSE MODEL USING THE SEI℠, WE CAN MONETIZE TARGETED
MARKETING ACTIVITIES SUCH AS FACEBOOK CAMPAIGNS

15


• THE BREAKFAST SANDWICH PROMOTION GENERATED A POSITIVE LIFE IN CONSUMER
ENGAGEMENT

Promotion Results

• During a six month time period, the Client
featured its Breakfast item with a promotion Artisan Sandwich [Jan 4th - Jan 10th]
Lift Over Avg
price of $2 with the purchase of a beverage. SEI Pre Promo Promo Post Promo
Benchmarks
12 1 12
• We analyzed the promotion impact by # Weeks 16 1 16 Pre & Post
comparing the baseline average Social Average Wk
Engagement Index (SEI) performance prior to POS 6584 135259 100 150
108 169%
150%
NEG 2023 60 77 29 160
37 160%
and after the promotion to the promotion 60 170 182 65 180
160%
Net* 61 72 173%
180%
period. 3.2 3.13.37 2.8
Ratio* 3.73 2.96
• SEI metrics reflect a significant promo lift in
social engagements during the promo week * Net = POS minus NEG
Ratio = POS/NEG
compared to the benchmark 16wk pre and post
periods. The net POS/NEG metric was up 180%. Lift By Channel
• The promo lift was occurred across all social
Total Blogs Boards Facebook Twitter
media channels.
173%
180% 193%
150% 164%
170% 39%
40% 165%
180%


• THE BREAKFAST ITEM TRENDED HIGHER DURING THE PROMOTION

Weekly Trended SEI ℠

Breakfast Item

• The SEI metric identified a
significant promo lift for the
Breakfast item based on social
engagements during the promo
week. This is comparable to
the lift experience by a
previous Free Coupon
promotion.
• However, the SEI was much Breakfast Item
higher during the previous
promo possibly due to the
excitement created by “Free”
product.


• AFTER THE BREAKFAST ITEM PROMOTION, CONSUMERS EXPRESSED CONCERNS ABOUT HIGH
FAT CONTENT AND MADE DIRECT COMPARISONS TO COMPETITIVE BREAKFAST ITEMS

Consumer Responses to Promotions

Concerns about Fat and
Breakfast Item Comparisons to competitive products

Concerns
Average
Promotion Product Product & Retail
Promotion Day Taste Time Diet Occasion All
Cluster Cluster Experience Compare Competition
Clusters
Cluster
Breakfast
Item 0.10 0.25 -0.05 -0.19 -0.70 -0.10 0.33 2.45 0.15 2.66 3.12 0.46




APPLYING THE SEI℠ METRIC







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ABOUT US
 Bottom-Line Analytics LLC is a consulting group focusing on
marketing and social media analytics

 Our modeling experts have a total of over 100 years of direct
experience with marketing optimization modeling. This includes
direct experience in over 35 countries and dozens of product
categories.

 We are dedicated to the principles of innovation, excellence
and uncompromising customer service.

 Most important, however, we are dedicated to getting tangible
and positive business results for our clients.
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OUR TEAM’S EXPERIENCE

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Contact Information

• David Weinberger
• Chief Marketing Officer
• (o)770.649.0472
• David@bottomlineanalytics.com
• Bottom-Line Analytics LLC

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