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Measuring the ROI of Planning Software




            June 21, 2012 IE Group
           Ben Lamorte, VP Marketing
           Follow us! @AlightPlanning

AGILE
The Subtle Message


   1: Is it EVEN worth it to replace
   spreadsheets with a planning
   tool?

   2: If you already bought software,
   was it worth it?

   3: Either way, how do we make
   planning ADD VALUE?
AGILE
The Subtle Message


   1: Is it EVEN worth it to replace
   spreadsheets with a planning
   tool?

   2: If you already bought software,
   was it worth it?

   3: Either way, how do we make
   planning ADD VALUE?
AGILE
The Subtle Message



   1: Is it EVEN worth it to replace
   spreadsheets with a planning tool?

   2: If you already bought software,
   was it worth it?

   3: Either way, how do we make
   planning ADD VALUE?

AGILE
Last Month’s Webinar Survey Results

     Of those purchasing dedicated planning software solution,
     74% report ―Unsure of ROI‖ (approx 100 on webinar)


         13%

                                               Unsure
   13%                                         Good ROI
                                               Bad ROI




                                         74%



AGILE
Rand Heer (He’s ―Heer‖ In Spirit)

  Business Activities
       CEO, Alight Planning (Planning software)
       Co-Founder, Aspirity (Microsoft BI consulting)
       Founder, FP&A Train (Essbase training)
       Founder, Pillar Corporation
       CFO for 2 public companies
       Rockwell Int’l, Business Unit CFO and Corporate

  Publications
       The Planning Maturity Curve: Where Are You? Where Do You Want to Be?
       How Agile is Your Planning: Find out by Measuring the ROI of Your
        Planning Software
       Coauthor: “Business Intelligence: Making Better Decisions Faster”.
        Published by Microsoft Press.
  Education
       MBA degree Harvard Business School

AGILE
Ben Lamorte

  Business Activities
         VP Marketing, Alight Planning
         VP Business Development, Alight Planning
         Principal, Decision Consulting (Adobe, Kaiser)
         Manager, Business Intelligence, planetrx.com
         Management Consultant, APM/CSC Healthcare

    Editor of “The Agile Planner” Blog
         Yes! Planning can be a Positive Experience
         Why Financial Reporting Software Delivers No Value?
         The Value of Agile Planning Over Time
         Driver Based Planning: How is it Defined?
  Education
         MS Management Science & Engineering, Stanford University
         BS Mechanical Engineering, UC Davis



AGILE
Agenda for Afternoon
 Planning Maturity Curve Framework for ROI

 Small ROI Example (1x)

 Big ROI Example Agile Planning
      33x – Pittsburgh Mercy Health
      20-80x – SoftLayer
      Bonus Item: Optimization – the BEST CASE SCENARIO


 Lisa comes on for an Alight Demo focusing on
      Driver-Based Planning
      Rolling Forecasts
      Scenario Analysis


 Cocktails!
AGILE
History: Getting to Planning Maturity Curve


                                                                                   2011
                                                                                 Planning
                                                                               Maturity Curve
                                                                                Introduced
   1980s                             1990s/2000s
                                                                               Agile Planning
 Spreadsheet                         Many Planning                             Trademarked
     Era                             Apps Available




                    1990s                                     2010
                   ―Pillar Era‖                         Alight Wins Overall
               1st Planning App                       Business Performance &
                                                         Analytics Award**




AGILE
               *BPM Partners
               ** Ventana Research
Planning Maturity Curve: Business Value!




    Insights             Actionable                Financially-
 Understanding things    Knowledge               Sound Decisions
 we didn’t see before
                           Understanding           Scenario analysis gives us
                        impacts of our actions   the financial impact of choices




AGILE
Planning Maturity Curve: 2 Types of Benefits

  Effort


                                               Type 2: Introduce New
                         Forecasting           Processes to Add Value

                  Reporting




           Budgeting    Type 1: Streamline
                        Existing Processes
                        Reduce Effort



                                  Business Value

AGILE
Small ROI : Type 1 Benefits Insights

Key Question: Who’s ROI is this anyway?
Type 1 Benefits of Planning Software tend to be minimal for Line Managers
  – known as “end users” by vendors

    Key Drivers for Annual ROI for End Users
         (Labor reduction/end user between $0-$800)
       X (# active users)

    Example
         ($400 reduction in labor per user)
       X (10 users)

       Bottom Line for End-User Example
       $4,000 per year cost reduction for a 10-user system

AGILE
Small ROI : Type 1 Benefits Insights

Type 1 Benefits of Planning Software tend to be small to moderate for
  Finance Departments

     Key Drivers of Annual ROI for Finance Dept
      (Time savings improvement between 20-40%)
    x (Total Finance Dept Cost of budgeting in spreadsheets)

     Example
          (30% time savings improvement from planning software)
        X ($80,000 Total Finance Dept Cost of budgeting in spreadsheets)

        Bottom Line for Finance Dept Example
        $24,000 per year cost reduction


AGILE
Small ROI: ROI Calculator Example
     Example: 10-User System Type 1 Benefits of $19,504 per Year
             $10,800 for Budgeting, $8,704 for Forecasting




AGILE
Big ROI: 33x More ROI with Agile Planning?
                                       Traditional Planning                      Agile Planning
                                              Type 1                              Type 1 & 2
        Deployment                      Web-Based Forms                           On-Premise
        #Seats Purchased                        10                                      5
        Costs
         Year 1                                $30,000                               $40,000
         Year 2                                $15,000                               $5,000
         Year 3                                $15,000                               $5,000
        Total Costs                            $60,000                               $50,000

        Benefits
         Year 1                                $19,504                              $450,000
         Year 2                                $19,504                              $600,000
         Year 3                                $19,504                              $600,000
        Total Benefits                         $58,512                             $1,650,000


        ROI Multiple                                      0.98                                 33.00
        Source:
         Traditional Planning: Interview with web-based software user focused on saving time


AGILE
         Agile Planning: Ray Wolfe at Pittsburgh Mercy Health Case Study
         No Surprise that more than 80% report management prioritizes type 2 over type 1
Planning Maturity—Agile Planning

                         Planning Maturity Curve (PMC)
Effort




                                      Forecasting


                          Reporting                 Forecasting/Agile Planning



                 Budgeting




         Seat of Pants



AGILE                          Business Value
The 4 Steps to Agile PlanningTM

                                4. Implement
                                Scenario
                                Analysis


     2. Implement
     Driver-Based
     Planning
                          3. Integrate
                          (Don’t Just
                          Import)
                          Actuals

        1. Reduce
        Level of Detail


AGILE
Big ROI: Pittsburgh Mercy – The Leader

 Ray Wolfe, CEO (was CFO)
  Business Activities
       Chief Financial Officer, Pittsburgh Mercy Health
        System 2006-2011, now CEO
       Director of Fiscal and Information Systems– Mercy
        Behavioral Health 1996-2006
       Chief Fiscal Officer, Summit Center for Human
        Development, 1988-1996


  Awards: Overall Ventana Leadership 2010

  Education
       JD, West Virginia University 1977
       BA, Marshall University, 1974



AGILE
Big ROI: Pittsburgh Mercy Overview

 Community Mental Health and Health Care Related
      Mental Health, Mental Retardation, Drug/Alcohol, Homeless
      Prevention Services and a Private Foundation
 Business Metrics
      3 subsidiary corporations
      60 community locations
      27 major programs product lines
      260 revenue/cost center
      1,700 employees; 106 Managers & Supervisors
      Funded through traditional insurance billing, government grants and
       capitation contracts, Private Foundations




AGILE
Big ROI: Pittsburgh Mercy Before

 Demographic Problems
      Managers with only clinical backgrounds/ no business skills
      60 sites yielded communication barriers and no common language


 Excel based —
      Overload mode of worksheets with link and formula errors
      Too much time to maintain and no certainty of integrity


 Budgeting became a ritual without meaning
      Tops down budgets w/o manager buy in
      No operational integration




AGILE
Big ROI: Pittsburgh Mercy After

 Organization of Forecast Groups & Processes
     Group managers by functional areas—e.g.
        Community Treatment Teams
        Child Services

     15 Groups each meet once a quarter
        3 to 12 managers per group
        4 members from accounting/finance

     Real time process elements
        Alight Planning displayed on Overhead Projector with Smart Board
        Ray is facilitator; Alight Admin on mouse & keyboard
        Review / make changes in real time
        Everyone sees everything!




AGILE
Big ROI: Reduce Detail 10k to 3k line items

 Not Just a ―SOFTWARE ISSUE‖ - a ―SOLUTION ISSUE‖
     Moved to a lower level of detail by reducing T&E accounts




AGILE
Big ROI: Actuals ―Rates‖ Drive Plan ―Rates‖




AGILE
Big ROI: Pittsburgh Mercy - Results

 Financial Results
      $600K annual impact to bottom line
      Combined revenue increase and costs cut
 Process Results
      No budgeting
      Global updates twice a year – detailed updates quarterly
      Forecast accuracy to 2%
      Manager commitments based on demonstrated best practices
 Model Status
      Now on third model iteration built from scratch




AGILE
What is Agile Planning?


           3-Minute Overview




AGILE
The Value of Traditional Planning Over Time




                                         But ROI
                                         diminishes
                                         quickly
                                         over time.
          VALUE


 High ROI at
 the early
 stages of
 planning…
                                  TIME




 Source: The Agile Planner Blog



AGILE
The Value of Agile PlanningTM Over Time




                                                                          Long-term
          VALUE                                                           value from
                                                                          planning
                                                                          increases
                                                                          significantly
ROI remains
high in the
early stages
of planning…
                                            TIME
       Agile Planning Defined: Impactful planning that addresses the right
       business issues at the right time with the right people at the right
       level of detail. Unlike budgeting, it is a continuous process that adds
       increasing value over time.



AGILE                           Source: The Agile Planner Blog
Next Steps: Who wants to go Agile?
 Free - if exploring rolling forecast or Agile Planning
      Customized ROI Assessment
      In-Depth Planning Model Review
      Customized Planning Maturity Curve Report!
 Recorded Webinars
      IE Group Workshop: Application Requirements for Rolling Forecasts
         www.AlightPlanning.com/Workshop/Requirements-for-Rolling-Forecasts/Video.html
      Transforming Planning at Pittsburgh Mercy
         www.Alightplanning.com/Webinars/PM/Video.html
      IMA June 2012: Case Study: Measuring the ROI of Planning Software
         http://event.on24.com/r.htm?e=463939&s=1&k=AC2FB205C027E8CF17646BAE071ECC9
           1 (Register and then click Launch Presentation)

 Follow up with Kevin Pellegrino, VP Sales & Marketing
      kpellegrino@alightplanning.com




AGILE
Wrap-Up & Preliminary Implications
 Small Companies looking only to streamline existing planning
  processes will have marginal type 1 benefits; they may in fact be
  better off sticking with spreadsheets!
 While end-user licenses may benefit the finance department, there is
  minimal (and even sometimes negative ROI) associated with
  replacing spreadsheets as reported by end users; many of whom
  prefer to stick with spreadsheets and only enter data in once a year
  anyhow.
 It is no surprise that management prioritizes type 2 benefits as this
  is where one can experience the ―BIG ROI‖
 To achieve type 2 benefits, ―software‖ alone is insufficient. We need
  ongoing, iterative training & model building to cross the
  planning maturity curve by:
       optimizing ―level of detail‖ - ―implementing driver-based planning‖
       ―integrating (not just importing actuals)‖ - ―leveraging scenario analysis‖ to better
        communicate the model and deliver actionable knowledge to inform better
        business decision making

AGILE
Examples of Type 2 Benefits

 Specialized Functionality
       Roll the Forecast
       BS/Cash Planning
       Integrate Short/Long Range
 Operations Integration
       Integrate Drivers
       Volume/Rate Causal Analysis
       Capture/Calculate KPIs
 Profitability Analysis
       Complex Allocations
       Analyze Customer Profitability
       Analyze Product Profitability
 Decision Support
       Interactive Dashboards AND Real-Time Planning
       Scenario Analysis On-the-Fly
       Strategy Analysis



AGILE
Planning Maturity—Agile Planning

                         Planning Maturity Curve (PMC)
Effort




                                      Forecasting


                          Reporting                 Forecasting/Agile Planning



                 Budgeting




         Seat of Pants



AGILE                          Business Value
Types of Models
    Doing the thing right vs. doing the right thing
 Lilien and Rangaswamy, Marketing Engineering, (2001), page 11-13
         “Descriptive decision models address the question, ―What will happen if we do X?‖
         Normative decision models address the question, ―What is our best course of action
          in a given situation?…explore the value of a decision option under different scenarios
          (Note #1)…when there are only a few options..descriptive models may be
          adequate…with many options to choose from, formal mathematical procedures are
          needed.‖ (Note #1)
 Shapiro, Modeling the Supply Chain, (2001), pages 10-11
         “Descriptive models are used to better understand functional relationships, e.g.,
            Cost relationships that describe how direct and indirect costs vary as a function of cost drivers
             (Note #1)
            Simulation / Forecasting models
        Normative models..that practitioners develop to help make better decisions. Our view
         is that normative and optimization models are synonyms.‖
    Note #1: Descriptive models must evaluate alternative options or scenarios, one at a
     time, to find the best one. Normative models evaluate huge numbers of alternative
     scenarios, simultaneously, and chose the best.

Thanks to Alan Dybvig for Creating this Slide

AGILE
Planning Maturity Curve with Optimization

Effort




                      Forecasting                      •Implement unit-based planning
                                                       •Integrate (don’t just import) actuals
                                                       •Implement scenario analysis
                Reporting
                                                       Forecasting/Agile Planning


                             Move out of Excel                                    Optimized Forecasting/
                             Reduce level of detail
         Budgeting                                                                    Agile Planning
                                                      •Implement optimized unit-based planning to create the
                                                      maximally profitable projected income statement
                                                      •Implement cost function variance analysis with actuals
                                                      •Implement scenario analysis using profit, EVA and CLV
                                                      •Implement profitability analyses
                                                      •Implement analyses of broader range of constraints
             Seat of Pants                            •Implement supply chain optimization




AGILE                                   Business Value

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Measuring the Roi of Planning Software Boston June 2012

  • 1. Measuring the ROI of Planning Software June 21, 2012 IE Group Ben Lamorte, VP Marketing Follow us! @AlightPlanning AGILE
  • 2. The Subtle Message 1: Is it EVEN worth it to replace spreadsheets with a planning tool? 2: If you already bought software, was it worth it? 3: Either way, how do we make planning ADD VALUE? AGILE
  • 3. The Subtle Message 1: Is it EVEN worth it to replace spreadsheets with a planning tool? 2: If you already bought software, was it worth it? 3: Either way, how do we make planning ADD VALUE? AGILE
  • 4. The Subtle Message 1: Is it EVEN worth it to replace spreadsheets with a planning tool? 2: If you already bought software, was it worth it? 3: Either way, how do we make planning ADD VALUE? AGILE
  • 5. Last Month’s Webinar Survey Results Of those purchasing dedicated planning software solution, 74% report ―Unsure of ROI‖ (approx 100 on webinar) 13% Unsure 13% Good ROI Bad ROI 74% AGILE
  • 6. Rand Heer (He’s ―Heer‖ In Spirit)  Business Activities  CEO, Alight Planning (Planning software)  Co-Founder, Aspirity (Microsoft BI consulting)  Founder, FP&A Train (Essbase training)  Founder, Pillar Corporation  CFO for 2 public companies  Rockwell Int’l, Business Unit CFO and Corporate  Publications  The Planning Maturity Curve: Where Are You? Where Do You Want to Be?  How Agile is Your Planning: Find out by Measuring the ROI of Your Planning Software  Coauthor: “Business Intelligence: Making Better Decisions Faster”. Published by Microsoft Press.  Education  MBA degree Harvard Business School AGILE
  • 7. Ben Lamorte  Business Activities  VP Marketing, Alight Planning  VP Business Development, Alight Planning  Principal, Decision Consulting (Adobe, Kaiser)  Manager, Business Intelligence, planetrx.com  Management Consultant, APM/CSC Healthcare  Editor of “The Agile Planner” Blog  Yes! Planning can be a Positive Experience  Why Financial Reporting Software Delivers No Value?  The Value of Agile Planning Over Time  Driver Based Planning: How is it Defined?  Education  MS Management Science & Engineering, Stanford University  BS Mechanical Engineering, UC Davis AGILE
  • 8. Agenda for Afternoon  Planning Maturity Curve Framework for ROI  Small ROI Example (1x)  Big ROI Example Agile Planning  33x – Pittsburgh Mercy Health  20-80x – SoftLayer  Bonus Item: Optimization – the BEST CASE SCENARIO  Lisa comes on for an Alight Demo focusing on  Driver-Based Planning  Rolling Forecasts  Scenario Analysis  Cocktails! AGILE
  • 9. History: Getting to Planning Maturity Curve 2011 Planning Maturity Curve Introduced 1980s 1990s/2000s Agile Planning Spreadsheet Many Planning Trademarked Era Apps Available 1990s 2010 ―Pillar Era‖ Alight Wins Overall 1st Planning App Business Performance & Analytics Award** AGILE *BPM Partners ** Ventana Research
  • 10. Planning Maturity Curve: Business Value! Insights Actionable Financially- Understanding things Knowledge Sound Decisions we didn’t see before Understanding Scenario analysis gives us impacts of our actions the financial impact of choices AGILE
  • 11. Planning Maturity Curve: 2 Types of Benefits Effort Type 2: Introduce New Forecasting Processes to Add Value Reporting Budgeting Type 1: Streamline Existing Processes Reduce Effort Business Value AGILE
  • 12. Small ROI : Type 1 Benefits Insights Key Question: Who’s ROI is this anyway? Type 1 Benefits of Planning Software tend to be minimal for Line Managers – known as “end users” by vendors  Key Drivers for Annual ROI for End Users (Labor reduction/end user between $0-$800) X (# active users)  Example ($400 reduction in labor per user) X (10 users) Bottom Line for End-User Example $4,000 per year cost reduction for a 10-user system AGILE
  • 13. Small ROI : Type 1 Benefits Insights Type 1 Benefits of Planning Software tend to be small to moderate for Finance Departments  Key Drivers of Annual ROI for Finance Dept (Time savings improvement between 20-40%) x (Total Finance Dept Cost of budgeting in spreadsheets)  Example (30% time savings improvement from planning software) X ($80,000 Total Finance Dept Cost of budgeting in spreadsheets) Bottom Line for Finance Dept Example $24,000 per year cost reduction AGILE
  • 14. Small ROI: ROI Calculator Example Example: 10-User System Type 1 Benefits of $19,504 per Year $10,800 for Budgeting, $8,704 for Forecasting AGILE
  • 15. Big ROI: 33x More ROI with Agile Planning? Traditional Planning Agile Planning Type 1 Type 1 & 2 Deployment Web-Based Forms On-Premise #Seats Purchased 10 5 Costs Year 1 $30,000 $40,000 Year 2 $15,000 $5,000 Year 3 $15,000 $5,000 Total Costs $60,000 $50,000 Benefits Year 1 $19,504 $450,000 Year 2 $19,504 $600,000 Year 3 $19,504 $600,000 Total Benefits $58,512 $1,650,000 ROI Multiple 0.98 33.00 Source: Traditional Planning: Interview with web-based software user focused on saving time AGILE Agile Planning: Ray Wolfe at Pittsburgh Mercy Health Case Study No Surprise that more than 80% report management prioritizes type 2 over type 1
  • 16. Planning Maturity—Agile Planning Planning Maturity Curve (PMC) Effort Forecasting Reporting Forecasting/Agile Planning Budgeting Seat of Pants AGILE Business Value
  • 17. The 4 Steps to Agile PlanningTM 4. Implement Scenario Analysis 2. Implement Driver-Based Planning 3. Integrate (Don’t Just Import) Actuals 1. Reduce Level of Detail AGILE
  • 18. Big ROI: Pittsburgh Mercy – The Leader Ray Wolfe, CEO (was CFO)  Business Activities  Chief Financial Officer, Pittsburgh Mercy Health System 2006-2011, now CEO  Director of Fiscal and Information Systems– Mercy Behavioral Health 1996-2006  Chief Fiscal Officer, Summit Center for Human Development, 1988-1996  Awards: Overall Ventana Leadership 2010  Education  JD, West Virginia University 1977  BA, Marshall University, 1974 AGILE
  • 19. Big ROI: Pittsburgh Mercy Overview  Community Mental Health and Health Care Related  Mental Health, Mental Retardation, Drug/Alcohol, Homeless  Prevention Services and a Private Foundation  Business Metrics  3 subsidiary corporations  60 community locations  27 major programs product lines  260 revenue/cost center  1,700 employees; 106 Managers & Supervisors  Funded through traditional insurance billing, government grants and capitation contracts, Private Foundations AGILE
  • 20. Big ROI: Pittsburgh Mercy Before  Demographic Problems  Managers with only clinical backgrounds/ no business skills  60 sites yielded communication barriers and no common language  Excel based —  Overload mode of worksheets with link and formula errors  Too much time to maintain and no certainty of integrity  Budgeting became a ritual without meaning  Tops down budgets w/o manager buy in  No operational integration AGILE
  • 21. Big ROI: Pittsburgh Mercy After  Organization of Forecast Groups & Processes  Group managers by functional areas—e.g.  Community Treatment Teams  Child Services  15 Groups each meet once a quarter  3 to 12 managers per group  4 members from accounting/finance  Real time process elements  Alight Planning displayed on Overhead Projector with Smart Board  Ray is facilitator; Alight Admin on mouse & keyboard  Review / make changes in real time  Everyone sees everything! AGILE
  • 22. Big ROI: Reduce Detail 10k to 3k line items  Not Just a ―SOFTWARE ISSUE‖ - a ―SOLUTION ISSUE‖  Moved to a lower level of detail by reducing T&E accounts AGILE
  • 23. Big ROI: Actuals ―Rates‖ Drive Plan ―Rates‖ AGILE
  • 24. Big ROI: Pittsburgh Mercy - Results  Financial Results  $600K annual impact to bottom line  Combined revenue increase and costs cut  Process Results  No budgeting  Global updates twice a year – detailed updates quarterly  Forecast accuracy to 2%  Manager commitments based on demonstrated best practices  Model Status  Now on third model iteration built from scratch AGILE
  • 25. What is Agile Planning? 3-Minute Overview AGILE
  • 26. The Value of Traditional Planning Over Time But ROI diminishes quickly over time. VALUE High ROI at the early stages of planning… TIME Source: The Agile Planner Blog AGILE
  • 27. The Value of Agile PlanningTM Over Time Long-term VALUE value from planning increases significantly ROI remains high in the early stages of planning… TIME Agile Planning Defined: Impactful planning that addresses the right business issues at the right time with the right people at the right level of detail. Unlike budgeting, it is a continuous process that adds increasing value over time. AGILE Source: The Agile Planner Blog
  • 28. Next Steps: Who wants to go Agile?  Free - if exploring rolling forecast or Agile Planning  Customized ROI Assessment  In-Depth Planning Model Review  Customized Planning Maturity Curve Report!  Recorded Webinars  IE Group Workshop: Application Requirements for Rolling Forecasts  www.AlightPlanning.com/Workshop/Requirements-for-Rolling-Forecasts/Video.html  Transforming Planning at Pittsburgh Mercy  www.Alightplanning.com/Webinars/PM/Video.html  IMA June 2012: Case Study: Measuring the ROI of Planning Software  http://event.on24.com/r.htm?e=463939&s=1&k=AC2FB205C027E8CF17646BAE071ECC9 1 (Register and then click Launch Presentation)  Follow up with Kevin Pellegrino, VP Sales & Marketing  kpellegrino@alightplanning.com AGILE
  • 29. Wrap-Up & Preliminary Implications  Small Companies looking only to streamline existing planning processes will have marginal type 1 benefits; they may in fact be better off sticking with spreadsheets!  While end-user licenses may benefit the finance department, there is minimal (and even sometimes negative ROI) associated with replacing spreadsheets as reported by end users; many of whom prefer to stick with spreadsheets and only enter data in once a year anyhow.  It is no surprise that management prioritizes type 2 benefits as this is where one can experience the ―BIG ROI‖  To achieve type 2 benefits, ―software‖ alone is insufficient. We need ongoing, iterative training & model building to cross the planning maturity curve by:  optimizing ―level of detail‖ - ―implementing driver-based planning‖  ―integrating (not just importing actuals)‖ - ―leveraging scenario analysis‖ to better communicate the model and deliver actionable knowledge to inform better business decision making AGILE
  • 30. Examples of Type 2 Benefits  Specialized Functionality  Roll the Forecast  BS/Cash Planning  Integrate Short/Long Range  Operations Integration  Integrate Drivers  Volume/Rate Causal Analysis  Capture/Calculate KPIs  Profitability Analysis  Complex Allocations  Analyze Customer Profitability  Analyze Product Profitability  Decision Support  Interactive Dashboards AND Real-Time Planning  Scenario Analysis On-the-Fly  Strategy Analysis AGILE
  • 31. Planning Maturity—Agile Planning Planning Maturity Curve (PMC) Effort Forecasting Reporting Forecasting/Agile Planning Budgeting Seat of Pants AGILE Business Value
  • 32. Types of Models Doing the thing right vs. doing the right thing  Lilien and Rangaswamy, Marketing Engineering, (2001), page 11-13  “Descriptive decision models address the question, ―What will happen if we do X?‖  Normative decision models address the question, ―What is our best course of action in a given situation?…explore the value of a decision option under different scenarios (Note #1)…when there are only a few options..descriptive models may be adequate…with many options to choose from, formal mathematical procedures are needed.‖ (Note #1)  Shapiro, Modeling the Supply Chain, (2001), pages 10-11  “Descriptive models are used to better understand functional relationships, e.g.,  Cost relationships that describe how direct and indirect costs vary as a function of cost drivers (Note #1)  Simulation / Forecasting models  Normative models..that practitioners develop to help make better decisions. Our view is that normative and optimization models are synonyms.‖  Note #1: Descriptive models must evaluate alternative options or scenarios, one at a time, to find the best one. Normative models evaluate huge numbers of alternative scenarios, simultaneously, and chose the best. Thanks to Alan Dybvig for Creating this Slide AGILE
  • 33. Planning Maturity Curve with Optimization Effort Forecasting •Implement unit-based planning •Integrate (don’t just import) actuals •Implement scenario analysis Reporting Forecasting/Agile Planning Move out of Excel Optimized Forecasting/ Reduce level of detail Budgeting Agile Planning •Implement optimized unit-based planning to create the maximally profitable projected income statement •Implement cost function variance analysis with actuals •Implement scenario analysis using profit, EVA and CLV •Implement profitability analyses •Implement analyses of broader range of constraints Seat of Pants •Implement supply chain optimization AGILE Business Value

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