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         Applications of
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         Ordinality and
          Cardinality to
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        Economic Utility
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             Theory
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             12/16/2010



79727082668306343285878569
           Benjamin Daniels




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Introduction

       Economics is the science of choice and scarcity. There's not enough stuff to go around, so

how do people choose what they buy? Perhaps even more importantly, how do governments

decide how to give out things like public schooling, tax rebates, and food stamps? Any decision

of this type requires comparing the costs and benefits of a particular transfer, but depending on

the underlying assumptions, it may not actually be possible to compare these things. Some

conceptions of utility space can clearly order sets of individual preferences but cannot describe

the distance between them, making the potential gains from trade difficult or impossible to

measure. How can comparisons and decisions be made in this environment? What does this

failing imply for theories of public choice? For theories of economic efficiency?


       Economic utility theory is the branch of economics concerned with answering questions

about happiness. By examining these questions through the lens of utility theory, it is possible to

see that ordinality and cardinality play an important role in the theoretical constructions of utility

space and interpersonal comparisons within it. In particular, economic utility theory seeks to

answer crucial questions about personal happiness, then quantify the results in order to provide

useful numerical outputs to policymakers and analysts. However, economists differ on the

fundamental assumptions that can be made in the realm of utility theory. In order to build a

useful model to aggregate happiness, it is important to first begin from the fundamental

conceptions of personal utility, then determine whether they can be successfully extended to

interpersonal and aggregate comparisons.


       In particular, an “indifference curves” approach is most useful when attempting to make

sense of commodity and utility spaces. By applying basic assumptions about the order of these

spaces, it is possible to generate a set of equivalence classes that fully describe the space. Due to


                                                                                                    1
the shape of these classes, it becomes straightforward to compare different goods and perform

Lagrangian optimization tasks across them. However, the indifference curves approach is less

well suited to social comparisons, unless it is possible to devise a method for making

interpersonal comparisons. Even then, optimization is much less straightforward, because the set

of inputs to a social utility function is much larger and their interactions more complex than the

components of individual utility.


       Policymakers can use various underlying mathematical assumptions about the

cardinalization of utility space for individuals and for society as a whole in order to dramatically

simplify the decision-making process. Indeed, without these simplifications, it is impossible to

construct a decision rule that accurately reflects the desires of the society as a whole, as Kenneth

Arrow proved in 1950. However, politicians and policymakers must be aware of the assumptions

they are making when utilizing different simplifying rules, particularly when the assumptions

have implications for overall efficiency and distributional equity. After establishing the

theoretical basis for the analysis and demonstrating the conflicts inherent in it, this essay will

review several such rules and analyze the strengths and weaknesses they exhibit with respect to

the overall theory of welfare maximization.


        From the popular construction of the theory to the practical implementation, one gap is

overwhelmingly obvious – a lack of concern for or understanding of problems of distributional

equity. While the theoretical formalization of the public choice problem readily admits this

failing, the practical application generally assumes it away, and in doing so often implicitly

selects the most utilitarian limit case. If society wishes to design programs that do not conform to

this measure of societal well-being, a more thorough analysis of the topic will be needed if

decisions are to be fully and completely analyzed.

                                                                                                   2
A full analysis of every proposed decision rule is crucial because Arrow’s Impossibility

Theorem, stated as follows, shows that any social decision rule will be imperfect: Any decision

rule that respects transitivity, independence of irrelevant alternatives, and unanimity is a

dictatorship. Transitivity is defined the usual way. Unanimity is defined to mean that if every

individual prefers A to B, then option A will be preferred by the decision rule to B.

Independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA) is defined to mean that the societal relative

ordering of A and B is affected only by the relative orderings of A and B by individuals.


       Proof. Let option B be chosen arbitrarily. By unanimity, in any preference profile in

which every voter puts B at the very top or very bottom of his rankings, so too must society.

Suppose to the contrary that for such a profile and for distinct A, B, and C, the social preference

ranked A > B and B > C. By IIA, this would hold even if every individual moved C above A,

because that could be arranged without changing the relative order of A and B or C and B

(because B is at the very top or very bottom of every profile). By transitivity the social ranking

would then place A > C, but by unanimity it should also place C > A, leading to a contradiction.


       In order to avoid the contradiction, there must be some voter n who is pivotal in the sense

that by changing his vote he can move B from the bottom of the social profile to the top (whether

this happens immediately or after some 1-n voters have changed their votes is irrelevant). In this

case, voter n is a dictator over any arbitrary pair of options (A, C) where A, C ≠ B, since the

ordering of A and C relative to B, and therefore to each other, is determined by the location of A,

B, and C in voter n’s individual preferences. But because A, B, and C are chosen arbitrarily, we

can see that there must be such a dictator for any pair of options. In fact, this dictator will be

voter n for every pair, since the relative societal rankings of any other option B are dependent on

the rankings of A and C, which voter n also controls. So the system is a dictatorship.▪

                                                                                                   3
Ordering Preferences and Making Decisions


       To avoid dictatorship, we must accept flawed systems. But to fully analyze these systems,

we must be able to discuss their impact on individuals. The basic building blocks of individual

utility are commodities. When economists wonder how happy a person is, it is generally

accepted to define the level of happiness as some function Uj of the various commodities

possessed by a person j. For simplicity, we examine only that subclass of commodities known as

“goods” – commodities for which the utility
                                                            Figure 1. Commodity space for guns and butter,
function has a positive-valued partial                                       and an indifference curve IB.

derivative. The simplest possible case, and

perhaps the most illustrative, is the two-

good economy. In this case, the quantity of

each good can be mapped clearly onto a

commodity space as shown in Figure 1.


       It is natural to make several assumptions that lead to the well-ordering of the commodity

space. First, order is imposed; that is, for any two points A and B, exactly one of the following

must be true: A is preferred to B, B is preferred to A, or the individual is indifferent between the

two points. Second, preferences are transitive; if A > B and B > C, then A > C. Third, because

we have restricted our examination to “goods”, preferences are positive; moving in a rightward

or upward direction (ie, obtaining more of one good without sacrificing any of another) is always

preferable to the reference point. Lastly, preferences are convex, illustrated by the “indifference

curve” moving away from Point B in the diagram; in order to convince an individual to sacrifice

marginal units of one good, it requires an increasing amount of the other good as compensation.



                                                                                                       4
Together, these rules yield a set of equivalence classes in commodity space known as

indifference curves and denoted by Iij with index i for the individual and j for the utility level.

These curves are dense in the space and, as one moves upward and rightward, represent ever-

increasing levels of personal utility; j increases with utility. The conception is readily generalized

to many-dimensional commodity spaces and may even be extended to include commodities for

which Uj has a negative partial derivative with some adjustment to the underlying assumption of

positivity. In addition, because indifference curves themselves represent a new well-ordered

space, utility space, it becomes trivial for a mathematically-inclined individual to maximize his

or her utility: a simple Lagrangian process incorporating the prices of various goods and a budget

constraint allows the individual to select an allocation that achieves the highest level of utility.


       Although individual utility space is well-ordered as a result of these assumptions, it is not

yet a cardinalized space. That is, while we can easily say that Iim > Iin whenever m > n, we have

not established a method for determining the value of the ratio Iim/Iin. This is made more difficult

by the fact that indifference curves are dense, and therefore has cardinality equal to that of the

continuum, c; the indices are not natural numbers. To establish a base point for these ratios, it is

common to select an arbitrary reference curve Ii1, then cardinalize the space such that Iim/Iin =

m/n. By this method the ratio of utilities of any two commodity vectors can be determined,

although there is still no conception for determining ratios between individuals, such as I1m/I2m.


       Given these relatively simple assumptions and the system they imply, the next step is to

attempt to extend the approach to a social level. Since not all the decisions of society are made in

open commodity markets, the characteristics and limitations of these methods when applied to

social decisions, public goods, and the like will be crucial for policymakers to understand the

impacts and restrictions of various types of analysis.

                                                                                                       5
Aggregating Preferences and Making Social Decisions


       The social analysis begins from much the same place as the individual analysis, for

obvious reasons: society as an entity is made up only of the individuals in it. As far as

commodities are concerned, a society can utilize exactly the same process as an individual for

mapping preferences and optimizing outputs. However, this is not the whole story for a

collective decision to be made:

       The distribution of wealth is important for determining values and shaping production, and it can
       even be maintained that a country with one and the same amount of general wealth may be rich or
       poor according to the manner in which that wealth is distributed. (Schumpeter)

So although society, like the individuals who constitute it, benefits from a greater number of

goods, it is also important to take into account the impact of those goods on various individuals

by way of a distributional analysis.


       Given this information, the utility space for a society gains a number of dimensions equal

to the number of people in the society. This construction represents the fact that, in addition to

making tradeoffs among different types of goods, society must also make tradeoffs about the

allocation of those goods. However, it is not sufficient to quantify these tradeoffs among

individuals in commodity terms, or even in dollar terms; from individual indifference-curve

analysis it is clear that different individuals have different valuations for various goods. Instead,

the tradeoffs among people must be represented in utility terms. The crucial cardinal expression

needed for this construction – the slope Iim/Ijm – is presently undefined, because there is no

accepted conception of individual utility that allows interpersonal comparison. There exist

various methods for addressing this problem in practice, but in order to fully appreciate them,

their implications must first be examined through theories of distributional equity.




                                                                                                           6
One key question facing decision-makers is the shape of the social indifference curve

with respect to distribution of goods among individuals. Theoretically, this parameter is the most

immediate method for assessing the importance of distributional equity to the overall societal

utility function. The analysis dates back to the utilitarian conception advanced by Jeremy

Bentham, who asserted that distributional concerns were entirely useless; in this conception, a

good is valued at exactly the same societal worth, no matter who possesses it. The diametrically

opposed theory was later advanced by John Rawls, who claimed that society should only be

judged by its worst-off citizens; additional goods were worthless if they were distributed to

anyone else. Graphically and algebraically, these arguments represent the upper and lower

bounds on the space of indifference curves most simply expressed by the formula



Rawls demonstrates the limit as α approaches -∞ and Bentham the case as α approaches 1.

Figure 2 illustrates the space of indifference curves generated by this conception over a simple 2-

person society. A Rawlsian society more concerned with equality will distribute goods more

evenly whereas, in the limiting Benthamite case, the additional interpersonal dimensions are

rendered irrelevant to the maximization by the flat shape of the indifference curves.




                                           Figure 2. Rawlsian and Benthamite societal indifference curves.
                                           R represents the social choice made with Rawlsian assumptions
                                                                             and B the Benthamite choice.
                                                                                                             7
In Practice: CBA, QALYs, and the U-Index

       When designing actual social policies, legislators and executives must handle these twin

hurdles of utility measurement and distributional analysis. They must decide how to measure

individual utility, how to measure it against the utility of others, and what weight to put on the

competing concepts of maximization and equity. Three practical and theoretical mechanisms

highlight the various choices that could be made by a policymaker: cost-benefit analysis, the

QALY system, and the U-Index. Each of these emphasizes a different aspect of the social

decision and, together, they demonstrate the fundamental fact that tradeoffs must be made which

cannot be quantitatively compared.


       The time-honored practice of cost-benefit analysis (CBA) calls on the most utilitarian

assumptions to make public choices. It weights total costs directly against total benefits, entirely

without regard for distributional impacts. Most public accounting, whether directly or indirectly,

utilizes CBA in order to justify budgets and often includes explicit costs and benefits only; for

example, Congressional Budget Office scores are often manipulated by legislators by shifting

expenditures to states or individuals or by making advantageous assumptions about the value of

various services. However, CBA is not without merits; it does, in the broadest sense, capture the

economic ideal of maximization by providing a clear quantitative guideline for the value of a

public project or a benefit schedule and allowing for sound derivative-based optimization. When

costs and benefits are clear and distribution is of minor concern, CBA can be an appropriate

choice for decision-makers.


       Another method of decision-making is demonstrated by the QALY system, a method of

apportioning health benefits utilized by the British National Health Service. To construct the

QALY system, researchers used an extensive series of interviews to determine the relative values

                                                                                                  8
of various health states as judged by normal people; the results were averaged and normalized

such that one year of normal life has a value of one Quality-Adjusted Life Year (QALY). The

key assumption underlying this valuation is that every life has the same value, which sidesteps

the problem of interpersonal comparison entirely. The QALY values are calculated by

multiplying expected life quality produced by expected longevity, so

                                    Value = Quality ∙ Longevity

The marginal value of a procedure is given by its expected impact on the value of a life, and

thanks to the inherent Lagrangian process we can use it to assess the distributional impacts of the

QALY system. The total derivative is given by:

                    ∆Value = (Quality ∙ ∆Longevity) + (∆Quality ∙ Longevity)

The inherent bias of this total derivative is to target longevity-increasing treatments to those with

a good quality of life, and quality-enhancing treatments to those expected to live the longest.

While this seems sensible from the abstract efficiency criterion, it is important to note that it

would also be possible to design a system that attempted to improve the quality of life for the

worst-off class first – a system that would certainly be preferable for the very sick.

       The U-Index is a theoretical system proposed in order to avoid cardinalizing personal

utility space altogether. In a similar manner as the QALY system, the U-Index obtains ordinal

and relative measures of well-being from participants. It converts the responses into directly

comparable cardinal measurements by characterizing a respondent into binary groups of “happy”

and “unhappy” based on responses, and then reports a “U-Index” for an activity based on the

proportion of people who are unhappy during that activity. Like CBA and the QALY system, the

U-Index provides a clear, cardinal, quantitative target for policymakers to optimize, but like the

other systems it dodges the question of distributional impact by assuming utilitarian equality.



                                                                                                   9
Conclusion


       The examples used to demonstrate practical applications of utility and social choice

theory make clear one crucial shortcoming of the theory: it is extremely difficult to explicitly

value interpersonal comparisons of utility. Generally, policymakers elect to assume them away

entirely, choosing to implement programs on a mostly utilitarian basis, and giving weight to

distributional concerns only indirectly – by allowing measured benefits to increase with need.

Indeed this is the largest gap in the underlying theory as well. Despite the obvious need for a

method of valuing interpersonal exchanges from the lens of society, theory and practice have not

solved the key question of cardinalizing interpersonal comparisons such that I1m/I2m has a well-

defined value, nor have they attempted to devise simplifying assumptions that handle the

problem in a more nuanced manner than simply assuming the value to be equal to m/m = 1.


       However, the shortcoming may not be entirely the fault of the policymakers. Even

theories that are relatively liberal – the British healthcare system, for example – have defaulted to

the utilitarian conception implicitly, almost without realizing it. In addition, academic literature

beyond Rawls and responses to him offers no guidance on how to better include equity concerns

or how to “optimize” equity. It is a far easier task to maximize output than to ensure that it winds

up in the right hands, and even today much work on inequality lacks the formal rigor that was

developed for efficiency by the early Chicago school. Policymakers motivated to address

inequality will need a stronger set of theoretical and mathematical tools with which to develop

and assess policy options if they are to use anything other than the simplest criteria for

distributional equity.




                                                                                                  10
References


Barnett, William. “The modern theory of consumer behavior: Ordinal or cardinal?” Quarterly
       Journal of Austrian Economics 6, No. 1 (2003). 41-65.

Baumol, William J. “The Cardinal Utility Which is Ordinal.” The Economic Journal 68, No. 272
       (Dec 1958). 665-672.

Fleming, Marcus. “A Cardinal Concept of Welfare.” Quarterly J. of Econ. 66, No. 3 (Aug 1952).
       366-384.

Geanakoplos, John. “Three Brief Proofs of Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem.” Cowles Foundation
       Discussion Papers 1123RRR, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. 2001.

Harsanyi, John C. “Cardinal Welfare, Individualistic Ethics, and Interpersonal Comparisons of
       Utility.” The Journal of Political Economy 63, No. 4 (Aug 1955). 309-321.

Kahneman, Daniel, and Alan B. Krueger. “Developments in the Measurement of Subjective
       Well-Being.” J. of Econ. Perspectives 20 (2006). 3-24

Kaldor, Nicholas. “Welfare Propositions of Economics and Interpersonal Comparisons of
       Utility.” The Economic Journal 49, No. 195 (1939). 549-552.

Mandler, Michael. "Compromises Between Cardinality and Ordinality in Preference Theory and
       Social Choice."Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1322, Cowles Foundation for
       Research in Economics, Yale University. 2001.

Mandler, Michael. “Cardinality versus Ordinality: A Suggested Compromise.” The American
       Economic Review 96, No. 4 (Sep 2006). 1114-1136.

Mercuro, Nicholas, and Steven G. Medema. Economics and the Law, Second Edition: From
       Posner to Postmodernism and Beyond. 1997.

Schumpeter, Joseph. “On the Concept of Social Value.” Quarterly J. of Econ. 23 (1908-9).

Wold, H., G. L. S. Shackle and L. J. Savage. “Ordinal Preferences or Cardinal Utility?”
       Econometrica 20, No. 4 (Oct 1952). 661-664.

                                                                                                11

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Applications of ordinality and cardinality to economic utility theory

  • 1. 93125705863566201855810072 93606598764861179104533488 50346113657686753249441668 03962657978771855608455296 Applications of 54126654085306143444318586 Ordinality and Cardinality to 76975145661406800700237877 Economic Utility 65913440171274947042056223 Theory 05389945613140711270004078 54733269939081454664645880 12/16/2010 79727082668306343285878569 Benjamin Daniels 83052358089330657574067954 57163775254202114955761581 40025012622859413021647155 09792592309907965473761255 17656751357517829666454779 17450112996148903046399471
  • 2. Introduction Economics is the science of choice and scarcity. There's not enough stuff to go around, so how do people choose what they buy? Perhaps even more importantly, how do governments decide how to give out things like public schooling, tax rebates, and food stamps? Any decision of this type requires comparing the costs and benefits of a particular transfer, but depending on the underlying assumptions, it may not actually be possible to compare these things. Some conceptions of utility space can clearly order sets of individual preferences but cannot describe the distance between them, making the potential gains from trade difficult or impossible to measure. How can comparisons and decisions be made in this environment? What does this failing imply for theories of public choice? For theories of economic efficiency? Economic utility theory is the branch of economics concerned with answering questions about happiness. By examining these questions through the lens of utility theory, it is possible to see that ordinality and cardinality play an important role in the theoretical constructions of utility space and interpersonal comparisons within it. In particular, economic utility theory seeks to answer crucial questions about personal happiness, then quantify the results in order to provide useful numerical outputs to policymakers and analysts. However, economists differ on the fundamental assumptions that can be made in the realm of utility theory. In order to build a useful model to aggregate happiness, it is important to first begin from the fundamental conceptions of personal utility, then determine whether they can be successfully extended to interpersonal and aggregate comparisons. In particular, an “indifference curves” approach is most useful when attempting to make sense of commodity and utility spaces. By applying basic assumptions about the order of these spaces, it is possible to generate a set of equivalence classes that fully describe the space. Due to 1
  • 3. the shape of these classes, it becomes straightforward to compare different goods and perform Lagrangian optimization tasks across them. However, the indifference curves approach is less well suited to social comparisons, unless it is possible to devise a method for making interpersonal comparisons. Even then, optimization is much less straightforward, because the set of inputs to a social utility function is much larger and their interactions more complex than the components of individual utility. Policymakers can use various underlying mathematical assumptions about the cardinalization of utility space for individuals and for society as a whole in order to dramatically simplify the decision-making process. Indeed, without these simplifications, it is impossible to construct a decision rule that accurately reflects the desires of the society as a whole, as Kenneth Arrow proved in 1950. However, politicians and policymakers must be aware of the assumptions they are making when utilizing different simplifying rules, particularly when the assumptions have implications for overall efficiency and distributional equity. After establishing the theoretical basis for the analysis and demonstrating the conflicts inherent in it, this essay will review several such rules and analyze the strengths and weaknesses they exhibit with respect to the overall theory of welfare maximization. From the popular construction of the theory to the practical implementation, one gap is overwhelmingly obvious – a lack of concern for or understanding of problems of distributional equity. While the theoretical formalization of the public choice problem readily admits this failing, the practical application generally assumes it away, and in doing so often implicitly selects the most utilitarian limit case. If society wishes to design programs that do not conform to this measure of societal well-being, a more thorough analysis of the topic will be needed if decisions are to be fully and completely analyzed. 2
  • 4. A full analysis of every proposed decision rule is crucial because Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem, stated as follows, shows that any social decision rule will be imperfect: Any decision rule that respects transitivity, independence of irrelevant alternatives, and unanimity is a dictatorship. Transitivity is defined the usual way. Unanimity is defined to mean that if every individual prefers A to B, then option A will be preferred by the decision rule to B. Independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA) is defined to mean that the societal relative ordering of A and B is affected only by the relative orderings of A and B by individuals. Proof. Let option B be chosen arbitrarily. By unanimity, in any preference profile in which every voter puts B at the very top or very bottom of his rankings, so too must society. Suppose to the contrary that for such a profile and for distinct A, B, and C, the social preference ranked A > B and B > C. By IIA, this would hold even if every individual moved C above A, because that could be arranged without changing the relative order of A and B or C and B (because B is at the very top or very bottom of every profile). By transitivity the social ranking would then place A > C, but by unanimity it should also place C > A, leading to a contradiction. In order to avoid the contradiction, there must be some voter n who is pivotal in the sense that by changing his vote he can move B from the bottom of the social profile to the top (whether this happens immediately or after some 1-n voters have changed their votes is irrelevant). In this case, voter n is a dictator over any arbitrary pair of options (A, C) where A, C ≠ B, since the ordering of A and C relative to B, and therefore to each other, is determined by the location of A, B, and C in voter n’s individual preferences. But because A, B, and C are chosen arbitrarily, we can see that there must be such a dictator for any pair of options. In fact, this dictator will be voter n for every pair, since the relative societal rankings of any other option B are dependent on the rankings of A and C, which voter n also controls. So the system is a dictatorship.▪ 3
  • 5. Ordering Preferences and Making Decisions To avoid dictatorship, we must accept flawed systems. But to fully analyze these systems, we must be able to discuss their impact on individuals. The basic building blocks of individual utility are commodities. When economists wonder how happy a person is, it is generally accepted to define the level of happiness as some function Uj of the various commodities possessed by a person j. For simplicity, we examine only that subclass of commodities known as “goods” – commodities for which the utility Figure 1. Commodity space for guns and butter, function has a positive-valued partial and an indifference curve IB. derivative. The simplest possible case, and perhaps the most illustrative, is the two- good economy. In this case, the quantity of each good can be mapped clearly onto a commodity space as shown in Figure 1. It is natural to make several assumptions that lead to the well-ordering of the commodity space. First, order is imposed; that is, for any two points A and B, exactly one of the following must be true: A is preferred to B, B is preferred to A, or the individual is indifferent between the two points. Second, preferences are transitive; if A > B and B > C, then A > C. Third, because we have restricted our examination to “goods”, preferences are positive; moving in a rightward or upward direction (ie, obtaining more of one good without sacrificing any of another) is always preferable to the reference point. Lastly, preferences are convex, illustrated by the “indifference curve” moving away from Point B in the diagram; in order to convince an individual to sacrifice marginal units of one good, it requires an increasing amount of the other good as compensation. 4
  • 6. Together, these rules yield a set of equivalence classes in commodity space known as indifference curves and denoted by Iij with index i for the individual and j for the utility level. These curves are dense in the space and, as one moves upward and rightward, represent ever- increasing levels of personal utility; j increases with utility. The conception is readily generalized to many-dimensional commodity spaces and may even be extended to include commodities for which Uj has a negative partial derivative with some adjustment to the underlying assumption of positivity. In addition, because indifference curves themselves represent a new well-ordered space, utility space, it becomes trivial for a mathematically-inclined individual to maximize his or her utility: a simple Lagrangian process incorporating the prices of various goods and a budget constraint allows the individual to select an allocation that achieves the highest level of utility. Although individual utility space is well-ordered as a result of these assumptions, it is not yet a cardinalized space. That is, while we can easily say that Iim > Iin whenever m > n, we have not established a method for determining the value of the ratio Iim/Iin. This is made more difficult by the fact that indifference curves are dense, and therefore has cardinality equal to that of the continuum, c; the indices are not natural numbers. To establish a base point for these ratios, it is common to select an arbitrary reference curve Ii1, then cardinalize the space such that Iim/Iin = m/n. By this method the ratio of utilities of any two commodity vectors can be determined, although there is still no conception for determining ratios between individuals, such as I1m/I2m. Given these relatively simple assumptions and the system they imply, the next step is to attempt to extend the approach to a social level. Since not all the decisions of society are made in open commodity markets, the characteristics and limitations of these methods when applied to social decisions, public goods, and the like will be crucial for policymakers to understand the impacts and restrictions of various types of analysis. 5
  • 7. Aggregating Preferences and Making Social Decisions The social analysis begins from much the same place as the individual analysis, for obvious reasons: society as an entity is made up only of the individuals in it. As far as commodities are concerned, a society can utilize exactly the same process as an individual for mapping preferences and optimizing outputs. However, this is not the whole story for a collective decision to be made: The distribution of wealth is important for determining values and shaping production, and it can even be maintained that a country with one and the same amount of general wealth may be rich or poor according to the manner in which that wealth is distributed. (Schumpeter) So although society, like the individuals who constitute it, benefits from a greater number of goods, it is also important to take into account the impact of those goods on various individuals by way of a distributional analysis. Given this information, the utility space for a society gains a number of dimensions equal to the number of people in the society. This construction represents the fact that, in addition to making tradeoffs among different types of goods, society must also make tradeoffs about the allocation of those goods. However, it is not sufficient to quantify these tradeoffs among individuals in commodity terms, or even in dollar terms; from individual indifference-curve analysis it is clear that different individuals have different valuations for various goods. Instead, the tradeoffs among people must be represented in utility terms. The crucial cardinal expression needed for this construction – the slope Iim/Ijm – is presently undefined, because there is no accepted conception of individual utility that allows interpersonal comparison. There exist various methods for addressing this problem in practice, but in order to fully appreciate them, their implications must first be examined through theories of distributional equity. 6
  • 8. One key question facing decision-makers is the shape of the social indifference curve with respect to distribution of goods among individuals. Theoretically, this parameter is the most immediate method for assessing the importance of distributional equity to the overall societal utility function. The analysis dates back to the utilitarian conception advanced by Jeremy Bentham, who asserted that distributional concerns were entirely useless; in this conception, a good is valued at exactly the same societal worth, no matter who possesses it. The diametrically opposed theory was later advanced by John Rawls, who claimed that society should only be judged by its worst-off citizens; additional goods were worthless if they were distributed to anyone else. Graphically and algebraically, these arguments represent the upper and lower bounds on the space of indifference curves most simply expressed by the formula Rawls demonstrates the limit as α approaches -∞ and Bentham the case as α approaches 1. Figure 2 illustrates the space of indifference curves generated by this conception over a simple 2- person society. A Rawlsian society more concerned with equality will distribute goods more evenly whereas, in the limiting Benthamite case, the additional interpersonal dimensions are rendered irrelevant to the maximization by the flat shape of the indifference curves. Figure 2. Rawlsian and Benthamite societal indifference curves. R represents the social choice made with Rawlsian assumptions and B the Benthamite choice. 7
  • 9. In Practice: CBA, QALYs, and the U-Index When designing actual social policies, legislators and executives must handle these twin hurdles of utility measurement and distributional analysis. They must decide how to measure individual utility, how to measure it against the utility of others, and what weight to put on the competing concepts of maximization and equity. Three practical and theoretical mechanisms highlight the various choices that could be made by a policymaker: cost-benefit analysis, the QALY system, and the U-Index. Each of these emphasizes a different aspect of the social decision and, together, they demonstrate the fundamental fact that tradeoffs must be made which cannot be quantitatively compared. The time-honored practice of cost-benefit analysis (CBA) calls on the most utilitarian assumptions to make public choices. It weights total costs directly against total benefits, entirely without regard for distributional impacts. Most public accounting, whether directly or indirectly, utilizes CBA in order to justify budgets and often includes explicit costs and benefits only; for example, Congressional Budget Office scores are often manipulated by legislators by shifting expenditures to states or individuals or by making advantageous assumptions about the value of various services. However, CBA is not without merits; it does, in the broadest sense, capture the economic ideal of maximization by providing a clear quantitative guideline for the value of a public project or a benefit schedule and allowing for sound derivative-based optimization. When costs and benefits are clear and distribution is of minor concern, CBA can be an appropriate choice for decision-makers. Another method of decision-making is demonstrated by the QALY system, a method of apportioning health benefits utilized by the British National Health Service. To construct the QALY system, researchers used an extensive series of interviews to determine the relative values 8
  • 10. of various health states as judged by normal people; the results were averaged and normalized such that one year of normal life has a value of one Quality-Adjusted Life Year (QALY). The key assumption underlying this valuation is that every life has the same value, which sidesteps the problem of interpersonal comparison entirely. The QALY values are calculated by multiplying expected life quality produced by expected longevity, so Value = Quality ∙ Longevity The marginal value of a procedure is given by its expected impact on the value of a life, and thanks to the inherent Lagrangian process we can use it to assess the distributional impacts of the QALY system. The total derivative is given by: ∆Value = (Quality ∙ ∆Longevity) + (∆Quality ∙ Longevity) The inherent bias of this total derivative is to target longevity-increasing treatments to those with a good quality of life, and quality-enhancing treatments to those expected to live the longest. While this seems sensible from the abstract efficiency criterion, it is important to note that it would also be possible to design a system that attempted to improve the quality of life for the worst-off class first – a system that would certainly be preferable for the very sick. The U-Index is a theoretical system proposed in order to avoid cardinalizing personal utility space altogether. In a similar manner as the QALY system, the U-Index obtains ordinal and relative measures of well-being from participants. It converts the responses into directly comparable cardinal measurements by characterizing a respondent into binary groups of “happy” and “unhappy” based on responses, and then reports a “U-Index” for an activity based on the proportion of people who are unhappy during that activity. Like CBA and the QALY system, the U-Index provides a clear, cardinal, quantitative target for policymakers to optimize, but like the other systems it dodges the question of distributional impact by assuming utilitarian equality. 9
  • 11. Conclusion The examples used to demonstrate practical applications of utility and social choice theory make clear one crucial shortcoming of the theory: it is extremely difficult to explicitly value interpersonal comparisons of utility. Generally, policymakers elect to assume them away entirely, choosing to implement programs on a mostly utilitarian basis, and giving weight to distributional concerns only indirectly – by allowing measured benefits to increase with need. Indeed this is the largest gap in the underlying theory as well. Despite the obvious need for a method of valuing interpersonal exchanges from the lens of society, theory and practice have not solved the key question of cardinalizing interpersonal comparisons such that I1m/I2m has a well- defined value, nor have they attempted to devise simplifying assumptions that handle the problem in a more nuanced manner than simply assuming the value to be equal to m/m = 1. However, the shortcoming may not be entirely the fault of the policymakers. Even theories that are relatively liberal – the British healthcare system, for example – have defaulted to the utilitarian conception implicitly, almost without realizing it. In addition, academic literature beyond Rawls and responses to him offers no guidance on how to better include equity concerns or how to “optimize” equity. It is a far easier task to maximize output than to ensure that it winds up in the right hands, and even today much work on inequality lacks the formal rigor that was developed for efficiency by the early Chicago school. Policymakers motivated to address inequality will need a stronger set of theoretical and mathematical tools with which to develop and assess policy options if they are to use anything other than the simplest criteria for distributional equity. 10
  • 12. References Barnett, William. “The modern theory of consumer behavior: Ordinal or cardinal?” Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics 6, No. 1 (2003). 41-65. Baumol, William J. “The Cardinal Utility Which is Ordinal.” The Economic Journal 68, No. 272 (Dec 1958). 665-672. Fleming, Marcus. “A Cardinal Concept of Welfare.” Quarterly J. of Econ. 66, No. 3 (Aug 1952). 366-384. Geanakoplos, John. “Three Brief Proofs of Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem.” Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1123RRR, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. 2001. Harsanyi, John C. “Cardinal Welfare, Individualistic Ethics, and Interpersonal Comparisons of Utility.” The Journal of Political Economy 63, No. 4 (Aug 1955). 309-321. Kahneman, Daniel, and Alan B. Krueger. “Developments in the Measurement of Subjective Well-Being.” J. of Econ. Perspectives 20 (2006). 3-24 Kaldor, Nicholas. “Welfare Propositions of Economics and Interpersonal Comparisons of Utility.” The Economic Journal 49, No. 195 (1939). 549-552. Mandler, Michael. "Compromises Between Cardinality and Ordinality in Preference Theory and Social Choice."Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1322, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University. 2001. Mandler, Michael. “Cardinality versus Ordinality: A Suggested Compromise.” The American Economic Review 96, No. 4 (Sep 2006). 1114-1136. Mercuro, Nicholas, and Steven G. Medema. Economics and the Law, Second Edition: From Posner to Postmodernism and Beyond. 1997. Schumpeter, Joseph. “On the Concept of Social Value.” Quarterly J. of Econ. 23 (1908-9). Wold, H., G. L. S. Shackle and L. J. Savage. “Ordinal Preferences or Cardinal Utility?” Econometrica 20, No. 4 (Oct 1952). 661-664. 11