1. The Impact of Climate Change on Future Land-use in a Coastal Zone Planning Context 30. June – 3. July 2008 Perugia, Italy Henning Sten Hansen
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4. Emissions scenarios - SRES CO 2 emissions (Gt) CO 2 concentration (ppm) Scenario A1 : Rapid economic growth, reduction in regional difference in income, population passing its peak in the middle of this century Rapid introduction of effective technologies FI : Intensive use of fossil energy sources T : Focus on non-fossil energy sources B : Using as well fossil as non-fossil energy sources Scenario A2 : Continuous uneven economic development and unbroken population growth Scenario B1 : Rapid economic growth and but re- organisation the to service- and information society, introduction of resource effective technologies, the global population culminates about 2050, focus on sustainable development Scenario B2 : Moderate economic growth, continuous moderate growth on world population, slow technological development, focus on local strategies towards a sustainable society
5. Global warming and sea level rise Temperature change ( 0 C) * Sea level rise (m) * SRES - Special Report on Emissions Scenarios *
6. Sea level rise in the Baltic Sea Best case scenario slr = 9 cm Worst case scenario slr = 90 cm
9. LUCIA - L and- U se C hange I mpact A nalysis GIS based land-use Projection model Input Current land-use Zones and plans Socio-economic data Output Scenarios : Future Land-use Indicators Sustainability ? ? ? Respond