cumbre de copenhagen

1. Institute for Environmental Studies; UNESCO IHE Institute for Water Education Consensus in Copenhagen: Breaking the Institutional bottleneck By Professor Joyeeta Gupta

2. The Developments so far Period The paradigm Key outcomes 1: Before 1990 Framing the problem 1979: First World Climate Conference 1988: Toronto Conference; Establishment of IPCC 1989: High level political conferences 1990: Second World Climate Conference; First Assessment Report of IPCC 2: 1991-1996 Leadership articulated 1992: Climate Change Convention 1995: COP-1 -- Berlin Mandate; AIJ 1996: Second Assessment Report of IPCC 3: 1997-2001 Conditional leadership 1997: COP-3 -- The Kyoto Protocol 2000: Third Assessment Report of IPCC 2001: COP-7 -- The Marrakech Accords 2001: US withdraws from Kyoto 4: 2002-2007 Leadership competition … ....: US initiates many agreements 2005: Kyoto enters into force 2007: COP-13-- Bali Roadmap 5: Post 2008 Developing countries taking lead? 2008: Global recession starts 2009: COP-15 -- Copenhagen agreement?

3. Problem: leadership? US EU S Leadership paradigm N S Conditional leadership Leadership sans US EU S CEITS US JSCaNZ US Leadership competition Development N S Pollution Inverted U curve may be a zig-zag curve

6. The Kyoto Protocol, 97 Protocol Preamble Policies and measures -2 QUELRC -3 Joint fulfilment -4 Joint Imple- mentation -6 CDM -12 Financial mechanism -11 Emission trading -17 Communi- cation -7 Implement existing obligations -10 Review of information -8 Review of Protocol -9 Non-comp liance - 18 Dispute settlement - 19 Other issues including entry into force 20-28 Multilateral consultative process -16 COP-13 Secretariat - 14 Subsidiary bodies - 15 Definitions -1 Methods -5 Organisational framework

12. Impact of loopholes on 1990 Annex 1 emissions in 2020 Source: ECO, 10 Dec Inclusion of loopholes means 4% reduction from 1990 levels

16. Arguments against using ODA: Political sensitivities EU offer 2.4 billion per year, recycles ODA Development cooperation Climate assistance 1.0% of GNI 0.7% of GNI Time Mainstreaming Actual climate assistance Expectations/ needs Actual assistance

17. Arguments against: Resources needed Current ODA Additional ODA needed for MDGs ODA needed for Agenda 21 Aid for climate change Total USD billion 100 60-135 125 40-250 315-611 Comment <0.4% of donor GNI Clemens et al. 2007 Ch. 33, Agenda 21 Lit. OverlapsAssumptions

18. This lecture is premature: Everything happens last minute! Source–The Economist, reprinted from Joe Romm (http://www.climateprogress.org ) 23-11-2009