1. STEM:The Spatiotemporal Epidemiological ModelerOpen Source Disease Modeling Application Available Through http://www.eclipse.org/stem/ IBM Almaden Research IBM Haifa Research

2. 2 Introduction General Information About STEM Analysis of Seasonal Influenza Data from ICDC and Maccabi Health Simulations based on Seasonal Flu Data Swine Flu Public Health Information Affinity Domain and Collaboration with MECIDS

3. 3 STEM is Open Source http://www.eclipse.org/stem/downloads.php

4. 4 STEM is a Framework Epidemiological Compartment Models Standard SEIR model Standard SIR model Births Births S E I R S I R Deaths Deaths S: susceptible E: exposed but not yet infectious I: infectious R: recovered

5. 5 Human Flu Swine Flu “Mixing Cell The Many Vectors of Infectious Disease

6. 6 US Counties (3109) Edges Common Border Edges Interstate Highway Edges Air Travel Edges

7. 7 STEM Core Integration Engine Choice Between Finite Difference Solver (fast, good for demos) Runge-Kutta-Fehlberg (RKF45) adaptive integration Adaptive step size Very efficient Synchronized across threads (multi-core engine) Accurate Computational error is estimated and controlled and an appropriate step size set automatically User Contributed Solvers

8. 8 Goal: Evaluation of Public Health Policies Masks No Air travel HCN/HL7 Vaccinate Weather Air Traffic Masks/No Air Multiple parallel scenarios identically initialized from current real world conditions and simulate each simultaneously forward in time. ?

9. 9 MECIDS iCDC France (Government, Universities) Northrop Grumman Why Open Source?Need for an International Community Eclipse Foundation UPMC Pitt Stanford MIT University of Vermont (UVM) U. Helsinki In discussion/meetings planned University of Edinburgh UC Davis

10. 10 Demo

11. 11 Simulations Based on ICDC Influenza Dataas initial condition

12. 12 Recent H1N1 Outbreak

13. 13 What are the parameters for the recent H1N1 outbreak What is Ro? Case report data not complete What could we learn from public data When first cases (~10) showed up in NY there were thousands in Mexico city Flu in Mexico peaked shortly after spread to air transport system Can we use the spread by air transport as an indicator for Ro ?

14. 14 How Many Cases had developed in Mexico when Flu first appears in NY ? County/State National

15. 15 Time to epidemic peak [days after I(NY)>~10]

17. Model does not include seasonal forcing