Google in its Mid-Life Crisis

in its mid-life crisis!

25 November, 2011
pj | twitter.combeingpractical | www.beingpractical.com

in its mid-life crisis!
Search

Discovery Platforms

Social

Fascination with Google+

Fixing what's not Broken

Siri

Android v/s iOS

Monetization

Lack of Innovation

Failure of Product Acquisitions

Google in its mid-life crisis! Read full blog post on www.beingpractical.com twitter.com/beingpractical

#1 Search
Wait. What’s wrong with Search? Google is undisputed leader in Search.

Web Index Search v/s Real-Time Search
> Traditional web content index based search & real-time information
search should be different products
> Google needs to realize this!

Recent changes to index more real-time info; indexing Facebook comments may affect core functionality of its
web search product and affect relevance of search results.


#2 Rise of Discovery Platforms
Content discovery through Social Platforms is threat to “Search”

then > Most websites, content, news, articles, products were discovered
through Search. Google was the gateway to WWW.

For years, we discovered the Internet from here.
But now, things are changing!


#2 Rise of Discovery Platforms
Content discovery through Social Platforms is threat to “Search”

now > Social platforms – Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn are hugely popular
Users discovering more & relevant content through social channels

As Social Discovery grows, Google will be under threat
> 750+ Mn active users on Facebook; 300+ Mn on Twitter, 115+ Mn on LinkedIn
> Users spend more time; high mindshare
> New products based on Social Graphs make discovery simpler.


#3 Social
Creating smoke where there is no Fire.

The thing about Social Graphs -
> Social Graphs are reflection of our Social Relationships in Real World
> Relationships in real world are:

Close Relationships:
Family, Friends - Most importantly people you know personally!

Professional Relationships:
Colleagues, Partners, Business relationships.

Loose Relationships:
Celebrities, Domain Experts. People you know, but they may not know you!

> And since these Social Graphs are already established, Google has no room to create
another graph.
Next? > Google+ is miles away from being a great social product – details here.


#3 Social
Social not in Google’s DNA.

Own attempts Google missed the Bus. Repeatedly.
2004: Orkut
2009: Google Wave
2010: Google Buzz
2011: Google+

Also, missing social for its products?
Spotify, Netflix, Hulu and others are riding the Google is missing the opportunity by not
Facebook Open Graph to increase social leveraging Facebook’s reach for its own
engagement and usage. products?

Next?


#4 Continued Fascination with Google+
Success Rule: Build quickly, learn, build, deploy. Doesn’t work, discard. Start again.

Google is breaking this rule.
> Instead it is making the biggest mistake – forceful inclusion of Google+ in other products
> Killing user experience & usability of its successful products.


#4 Continued Fascination with Google+

These are good things to do. But why rush? Google+ is yet to prove its own core value.
> Leveraging successful products of Google to promote Google+.
> Didn't Yahoo try his before - everything Yahoo. It didn't work earlier, it will not work here as well.

> Google is the next Yahoo?


#5 Fixing what’s not broken
Google’s most successful products outside Android – Search, Mail, Maps, YouTube

In search of freshness, playing too much with Core Search Product
> Aug 2010: Rolled out new web indexing system – Caffeine to provide 50% fresher results for
web searches.
> Nov 2011: Another roll-out that affects 35% searches to provide fresh results.
> Nov 2011: Starts indexing Facebook Comments

Standardization of UI Design is affecting Gmail users the most.
> Nov 2011: New design roll out is un-called for. Takes a big toll on Product usability.
> Nov 2011: Announces Gmail app for iOS and pulls back immediately due to Bugs.
> Nov 2011: Stops support for Blackberry App (installed native app)
Blackberry has 19.7% market share of smartphones; Growing in India


#5 Fixing what’s not broken
Google’s most successful products outside Android – Search, Mail, Maps, YouTube

Google Maps Pricing
> Nov 2011: Announces pricing for high-volume usage of Maps API
$4 for for 1000 visitors post initial 25,000 visitors

Google claims only a small percentage of users will be affected; However many consumers use maps
through multiple applications. App owners and developers may not approve this.

Google Reader
> Oct 2011: Announced the new Google Reader design, which is direct copy of its own Gmail look.
Introduced Google+ sharing features, which were not essential.

Google is actually trying to fix all that which is not broken. Desperate moves?


#6 Siri
Google mastered the keyboard-based text-input on Internet
Siri is not just a feature or voice recognition. It is a new Input Methodology

> Natural Language Interaction in Siri far superior over syntax driven VA
(Voice Actions for Android)
> VA is 1-2 years behind Siri; Apple has huge advantage.

Siri is Real.

Last known big transition for inputs –
iPhone replaced keypads on smartphones with finger-touch in 2007.
4 Years later – keypads on smartphones are obsolete.


#6 Siri
As Siri evolves, it may have serious implications on Google Search!

“Siri, Search for ‘MP3 Player’ on web and take me to the best result.”

“Siri, Find the closest pizza outlet.”

“Siri, What is the lowest price for iPad 2.”

Siri Threat is also Real.

> It may enable users to search web – without Google?
> No clicks? Direct threat to Google’s Monetization on Adwords!
> Future of SEO? – will it be Siri Voice Optimization? How will it work?

Siri is big bouncer for Google; caught them off-guard, completely unprepared!


#7 Android v/s iOS
Google scores a big thumbs up with Android

why > Captured 43% of US smartphone market with Android
Outside of US, smartphones essentially mean Android phones now
Apple’s lost opportunity due to high-priced iPhones outside US is Android’s gain

But now, App Monetization might be the way forward!
> Distribution of Android, provides Google opportunity to monetize mobile search queries
> But, developers now focusing on Mobile Apps & HTML5. Google directing mobile publishers to
AdSense and enabling AdMob for Mobile apps (http://bit.ly/mQ39cl)


#7 Android v/s iOS
Google scores a big thumbs up with Android

Google Acquires Motorola Mobility
> Allows Google to debut in the Software + Hardware mobile device play like Apple
> The $12.5 Bn acquisition also gives access to Motorola’s patent portfolio

no advantage
> Outside Motorola, large global players responsible for
popularity and distribution of Android.
> Google to have limited or no advantage in hardware play,
If attempted, will face tough questions from Android partners.

But the Apple Dream may not come true.
> Apple , largest and extremely focused contender with its one-phone market strategy for iPhone
> 360 degree ownership of iOS (hardware + software + app economy) might be hard to replicate
for Google.


#8 Monetization

2004 > Google IPO in Aug 2004
> Google’s largest contributor to its Revenue: Adwords

2011 > 7 Years after its IPO
> Google’s largest contributor to its Revenue: Adwords

> In 2004, Online Advertising was the only large online monetization model
In the quarter Google debuted on Nasdaq,
Amazon reported a profit of just $54 Mn


#8 Monetization

2004 Scalable Monetization Models:
> Online Advertising: Search & Display (Google, Yahoo, etc)

2011 Scalable Monetization Models:
> Online Advertising: Search & Display (Google)
> Social Advertising (Facebook)
> Mobile Advertising (Google, AdMob, others)
> Local Advertising (Groupon, Foursquare, others)
> eCommerce (Amazon, GILT, others)
> Enterprise, CRM (Salesforce, Box.net, others)
> App Stores (Apple, Amazon Kindle for Books, others)
> Payments (PayPal, Square, others)
> SaaS Products (Dropbox, Evernote, others)
> Smart Computing Devices – Phones & Tablets (Apple, others)

Multiple scalable monetization models have evolved in last few years.
Google is yet to move beyond Online & Mobile Advertising.


#9 Lack of Innovation
Lack of innovation in existing and high potential products.

> Orkut: Missed opportunity to be the Social Networking destination
> Blogger: Introduced blogging to world. Today? Wordpress, Tumblr, Posterous?
> Google Books: eBooks store of the World? eBook for Android phones?
> Google Docs: Never went beyond Gmail attachments. Evernote? Box.net?
> Google Apps: Endless opportunities in Enterprise services

Abandoned attempts?

drive

Post launch announcements, not much has Google’s online storage drive project was
been heard about Chromebooks. abandoned in 2007. (much before Dropbox
was released.)


#10 Failure of Product Acquisitions
Micro-blogging Service Lost Opportunity:

> Created before Twitter; acquired by Google in Oct 2007 380Mn Users
> Had potential to be Twitter or a tough competitor. $8 Bn Valuation

Social QnA Service Lost Opportunity:
1Mn+ Users
> Created before Quora; acquired for $50 Mn in Feb 2010
$1 Bn Valuation
> Had potential to be Quora or a tough competitor.

Location Based service Lost Opportunity:

> Acquired by Google in 2005 10Mn Users
> Founder Dennis Crowley – started Foursquare after exit. $600+ Mn Valuation

Google missed opportunity to build some hottest products!


# Ending Notes

Don't try to do something in everything.
Rather focus on doing everything in something!

Thank You!
Follow me: @beingpractical
Write to me: pj@beingpractical.com

Note: All thoughts, concepts mentioned and views expressed are made in personal capacity.
All brands mentioned here owned by respective owners.

www.beingpractical.com pj@beingpractical.com

Google in its Mid-Life Crisis

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Google in its Mid-Life Crisis