Nobel Prize winner Professor Steven Chu of Stanford University spoke about energy, climate change and transitioning to a sustainable world at the BASF Science Symposium: smart energy for a sustainable future in Ludwigshafen on March 9th, 2015. For more information see https://creator-space.basf.com/content/basf/creatorspace/en/events/symposium-ludwigshafen.past.html

1. BASF
Science
Symposium
Smart
energy
for
a
sustainable
future
9
–
10
March,
2015
Energy and Climate Change and
how to transition to a sustainable
world

2. 2
In
1898,
Sir
William
Crookes
delivers
an
address
his
inaugural
lecture
as
President
of
the
BriHsh
AssociaHon
for
the
Advancement
of
Science.
“It
is
the
chemist
who
must
come
to
the
rescue
of
the
threatened
communiHes.
It
is
through
the
laboratory
that
starvaHon
may
ulHmately
be
turned
to
plenty.”
“England
and
all
civilized
naHons
stand
in
in
deadly
peril
of
not
having
enough
to
eat.”

3. 3
Fritz
Haber:
1918
Carl
Bosch:
1931
Gerhard
Ertl:
2007
At
the
beginning
of
the
industrial
revoluHon
there
were
700
M
people.
The
Haber-­‐Bosch
process
enabled
us
to
feed
a
world
that
doubled
in
populaHon.

4. 4
“The
baWle
to
feed
all
of
humanity
is
over
...
In
the
1970s
and
1980s
hundreds
of
millions
of
people
will
starve
to
death
in
spite
of
any
crash
programs
embarked
upon
now.”
Prof.
Paul
Ehrlich
Stanford
Biologist
The
Popula+on
Bomb
(1968)

5. 5
Norman
Borlaug
is
awarded
the
Nobel
Prize
in
1970
Borlaug
bred
disease-­‐
resistant,
dwarf
strains
of
wheat
with
thick
stems
that
could
support
heavier
kernels.
His
plants
didn’t
collapse
a]er
rapid
growth
spurts
due
to
nitrogen
ferHlizer
used
in
the
poor
soils.

6. Source:
Food
and
Agriculture
Organiza4on
(FAO),
United
Na4ons
World
ProducHon
of
Grain
(1961
–
2004)
1960:
Popula4on
=
3
B
2005:
Popula4on
=
6.5
B

7. 7
Today, there are ~7.3 billion people.
By ~2050 we will grow to ~ 9 billion.
Are technological “fixes” merely postponing disaster?
High-fertility:
2.5 children
Low-fertility 1.6
Medium-fertility:
2.0 children

8. “Our ability to find and extract fossil fuels continues
to improve, and economically recoverable reservoirs
around the world are likely to keep pace with the
rising demand for decades.”
Steven Chu and Arun Majumdar, Nature (2012)
Will we run out of oil and natural gas?

9. U.S. Oil Production (1945 – 2012)
U.S. is the biggest producer of oil + nat. gas liquids + ethanol
2013 ~ 7.5 M bbls/day
2014 ~ 8.5 M bbls/day
U.S. oil production from tight oil
is ~ 4.5 M bbls/day

10. Potential shale gas and tight oil reservoirs can change the
energy landscape of the Americas, Asia and Europe.
The
rest
of
the
world
may
have
10
4mes
more
4ght
oil
and
shale
gas
than
the
U.S.
Also:
heavy
oil,
deep
water
oil,
oil
sands
…

11. With all of the new oil and natural
gas supplies, is the world energy
problem solved?
We have an Energy -
Climate Change problem.

12. 12
2014 was the hottest year on record.
14 of the 15 warmest years have all occurred in the 21st century.

13. © 2013 Munich Re
NatCatSERVICE
Weather-related loss events worldwide 1980 – 2013
Number of events
Meteorological
events
(Tropical
storm,
extra-­‐tropical
storm,
convecHve
storm,
local
storm)
Hydrological
events
(Flood,
mass
movement)
Climatological
events
(Extreme
temperature,
drought,
forest
fire)
200
400
600
800
1 000
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Number
©
2014
Münchener
Rückversicherungs-­‐Gesellscha],
Geo
Risks
Research,
NatCatSERVICE
–
As
at
February
2014
88% of World-wide losses were weather related

14. 14
Rate
of
sea
level
rise
Jan
1993
–
Aug
2014
3.2
mm/year,
roughly
3x
faster
than
1870
–
1940
Recent rate of sea level rise compared to historical record

15. 15
Muir Glacier, Alaska
August 31, 2004
August 13, 1941

16. Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)
Change in distance between 2 satellites is used to calculate the local gravity

18. 18
Ground water in California measured by the GRACE satellite
Since
2011,
the
Sacramento
and
San
Joaquim
river
basins
are
losing
15
km3
of
water
each
year.
Half
is
due
to
ground
water
pumping
in
the
Central
Valley.

19. 25
year
delay
aTer
the
onset
of
smoking
Smoking increases the risk of
• Lung cancer: 25x
• Coronary heart disease: 2x - 4x
• Stroke: 2x – 4x

20. Harbin, China
ParHculate
maWer
PM2.5
(<
2.5
μm)
and
PM10
are
especially
deadly.
36%
increase
in
lung
cancer
per
10
μg/m3
(The
Lancet
Oncology,
2014)

21. Harbin, China
ParHculate
maWer
PM2.5
(<
2.5
μm)
and
PM10
are
especially
deadly.
36%
increase
in
lung
cancer
per
10
μg/m3
(The
Lancet
Oncology,
2014)
PM2.5
measurements
at
U.S.
Embassy
in
Beijing
(Jan
2013)
Yearly
average
=
194
μg/m3
Smoking
rooms
in
U.S.
airports

22. 25
year
delay
aTer
the
onset
of
smoking
The damage already done to our environment may
not be known for a century.
How long will CO2 remain in the atmosphere?

23. • Energy trends in fossil energy: oil and natural
gas
• An epidemiological approach to climate
change
• How science and technology will make clean
energy the low cost option.
Outline of talk

24. “The
Stone
Age
came
to
an
end
not
for
a
lack
of
stones
and
the
oil
age
will
end,
but
not
for
a
lack
of
oil.”
-­‐
Sheik
Ahmed
Zaki
Yamani,
former
Saudi
Oil
Minister
We transitioned to better solutions.
If we don’t find better solutions, the oil,
gas and coal will be used.

25. 25
Energy efficiency
Clean energy sources
Science and technology can and must
help change the current path we are on.

26. 26
R.
van
Buskirk,
C.
Kantner,
B.
Gerke
and
S,
Chu,
Environ.
Res.
LeW.
9
114010
(2014)
The effect of appliance standards on total cost and purchase price

27. 27
R.
van
Buskirk,
C.
Kantner,
B.
Gerke
and
S,
Chu,
Environ.
Res.
LeW.
9
114010
(2014)
The effect of appliance standards on total cost and purchase price
Refrigerator
cost
declines
by
28%
for
each
doubling
of
producHon.
Energy
saved
in
the
U.S.
each
year
is
more
than
270
TWh
=
30
nuclear
reactors
operaHng
at
1
GW
24
hours
a
day,
365
days
a
year.

28. The Model T Ford (1908 – 1927) transformed
transportation by making it “a able”
Henry
Ford
4-­‐cylinder
2.9
liter
engine:
20
-­‐22
hp
Ford
3-­‐cylinder
1.0
liter
engine:
123
hp

29. 29
The Boeing 787 uses 30% of
the fuel of the 707,
carries 70% more passengers.
Its 2 jets have 80% more thrust
than the 4 engines of the 707.
Market forces drove fuel
economy in airplanes

30. 30
Energy efficiency
Clean energy sources
Science and technology can and must
help change the current path we are on.

31. 31
100
meter
wind
tower
2.3
MW
turbine:
93
meter
diameter
blades,
115
meters
high.
Wind
turbines
are
more
reliable,
efficient
and
bigger
The
Wright
Brothers’
first
flight
was
36.6
meters

32. U.S. wind energy costs and installed capacity
(1980 – 2012). Long-term contracts at 3¢/kWh.
New natural gas is 5¢/kWh at $4/MMBtu

33. Solar Resources in the U.S. Germany and Spain

34. US Solar PPA Prices Jul 08 – Jul 2014 ($/MWh)
Utility-scale solar energy is Texas is equal to the cost of new
natural gas at $4/Million Btu!
$
/MWh
Wholesale
prices
went
from
19¢
to
5¢/kWh
in
6
years

35. United States Solar Electricity Generation 1985 – 2013
My time as
U.S. Secretary
of Energy
Solar energy accounts for only 0.25% of all
electricity generated in the U.S. in 2013.
U.S. now has ~ 12 GW of installed capacity.

36. 36
Solar efficiency of Perovskite solar cells:
3% (2009) in 2009 è 20% (2014)
Perovskite
solar energy
conversion

37. 37
Bloomberg New Energy Finance:
Total cost of lithium ion battery packs for EVs and PHEVs
Tesla
Giga
Factory
baYery
pack
cost?

38. Volumetric energy density of Li-ion
batteries (courtesy Panasonic) 18650
Panasonic
silicon
anode
Li-­‐
ion
4-­‐fold
increase
in
energy
density
since
commercial
introduc4on.
Amprius
720
W/L

39. 39
Tesla battery uses ~ 250 Wh/kg batteries.
Maximum theoretical energy density (Wh/kg)
85 kWh = 425 kg ~ 1200 lbs ~ $36,000 @ $425/kWh
Yi
Cui
and
I
are
working
on
a
lithium-­‐
sulfur
baWery
that
may
increase
the
energy
density
5x
and
the
charging
rate
10x
of
today’s
baWeries.

40. $1,000/kW
and
$160/kWh
10,000
cycles
(30
years)

41. 41
Progress in Batteries and other
forms of energy “storage”
Pump
water
when
the
wind
blows
or
the
sun
shines

42. 42
Solar modules and batteries that operate at at a wide range of
temperatures can bring inexpensive electricity for LED
lighting, cell phones, refrigeration, water purification. Water
can be pumped, purified and stored for months.

43. U.S. Electrical Grid System (> 230 kV)

44. 44
China has installed a 2000 km 800 kV DC line. Less than 7%
of the energy is lost in conversion and transmission.

45. 45
High power-high voltage IGBT transistors can revolutionize
HVDV transmission lines and Flexible AC Transmission
Need: improved dielectric
materials HVDC undersea and
underground power lines.

46. A
prototype
1
MW,
20
kV
SiC
transistor.
(Cree,
2013)
Improved high frequency, high
voltage power electronics for
inverters, converters
Need:
High
power
–
high
voltage
Diamond
IGBT
transistors.

47. 47
350
million
]3
of
natural
gas/day
are
flared
in
the
Bakken
formaHon.
A
single
natural
gas
burner
is
as
loud
as
a
commercial
jet
engine.

50. Statoil,
GE,
Ferus
Natural
Gas
Fuels:
Sept.
2014
the
expansion
of
a
pilot
project
to
capture
flare
gas
to
power
Statoil's
six
drill
rigs
and
one
frac
fleet
in
North
Dakota.

51. Need: portable Gas-to-Liquid platforms powered by
natural gas that would have been flared.
Can we use 30% wall-plug efficient lasers
or other methods operating on natural gas
power to drive GTL reactions?

52. Commercial uses of CO2
• EOR
+
associated
sequestraHon
• Methane
coal-­‐bed
and
hydrate
extracHon
+
associated
sequestraHon
• Enhanced
geothermal
energy
If we can capture carbon dioxide at < $15/ton,
many opportunities in the capture and utilization
of CO2 may become economically attractive.

53. 53
My challenge to chemists
(Seeking the 21st century “Haber–Bosch” solution)
Liquid chemical energy storage: e.g. use
excess night time electricity to split water into
H2 and O2 and combine with CO2 captured
from power, cement and steel production to
make liquid fuels that can be shipped and
stored anywhere in the world.

54. 54
We need improved methods for splitting
water for H2 and the reduction of captured
CO2 for hydrocarbon production.
• Electrochemical conversion
• Photochemical conversion
• Biological conversion

55. 55
Octane
Decane
Cetane
Captured
CO2
H2O
?

56. 56
In a world of 50% intermittent wind and
solar energy, there will be significant surplus
electricity.
Even today, night-time electricity sell for
~ 0.5 - 2 cents/kWh
In a world when renewable surplus electricity
becomes very inexpensive, can we engineer
industrial chemical processing to take
advantage of this intermittent energy?

57. Earthrise
from
Apollo
8
(December
24,
1968)
"We
came
all
this
way
to
explore
the
moon
and
the
most
important
thing
is
that
we
discovered
the
Earth.”
Bill
Anders,
Apollo
8
Astronaut
57

58. 58
There is an ancient Native American saying:
“We do not inherit the land from our
ancestors, we borrow it from our children.”

59. 59
end