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1. Predicting This Year’s World Cup
Winner
What does predicting the economy got to do with predicting the World Cup
winner? A lot if you listen to Swiss Bank UBS.
In the World Cup 2006, the economists and analysts at the Wealth
Management Research at UBS used the statistical model that enabled them
to predict market trends and investment decisions and applied it to predict
the World Cup winner.
They correctly predicted that Italy would be the champion. They also
succeeded in getting six of the eight quarter-finalists correct. Their track
record also included correctly forecasting three of the four semi-finalists.
UBS's model is a purely quantitative analysis and the criteria used are past
performance, home advantage and teams' strength. Now let's discuss the
model:
For past performance, so far seven nations have won the championship.
(Brazil five times, Italy four times, Germany three times, Argentina and
Uruguay two times, France and England one time each). So according to
UBS, if you pick one of these seven teams, it appears to be a safe bet.
As for the home advantage, a third of the past world cups was won by the
host country. Now:
# The weather is mild winter in South Africa and it appears that the host
nation may not have the climate advantage. This applies similarly to the
African nations in the finals.
# Some matches will be played at venues at high altitude. This is a clear
advantage to the host and the South American teams like Brazil.
# In every tournament, there is speculation of referees favoring the Home
team. Will there be many controversial calls helping the host?
# This being Africa's World Cup, there are many who wonder if an African
nation will advance past the group stage into the quarter-finals for the first

2. time. In every tournament, there will always be a team which will be the
surprise package. Will this team come from Africa?
# And lastly, there is this "outside-of-Europe" syndrome. So far every World
Cup had been won by either an European team or a South American side. No
European team has won outside the comfort of their own continent. Now in
South Africa, many pundits believe that the South American teams will have
so-called ground advantage.
Regarding the strength of the teams, UBS took into consideration the FIFA
ranking and the bookmakers' odds.
So which team has UBS picked to be WC 2010 champion? Brazil.
Well, your guess is as good as mine on which team will win. My trusted
crystal ball tells me it is Spain.
In every World Cup, betting wise, it is a true challenge. The tournament is
held every four years and qualification ends months before the ball is kicked
in the first game of the finals. During this time, a lot can change in the
football world.
World Cup means patriotic fervor comes into play. We all have passionate
feelings for a certain team or a certain player which will determine our
decision.
There are 32 teams in the finals so technically there are 32 potential winners.
It is interesting to note some characteristics of these teams:
* Some teams have a good striking department with tons of firepower, but
lacking everywhere else.
* Some teams have great talented players but have insane coaches.
* Some are perceived as perennial underachievers like Spain and England
who seem to choke on the big stage.
* Some are tournament teams like Germany and Italy who may be
underrated before the finals, but know how to grind out the results. Well this
is according to past performances.

3. * Experts have expected Spain to win the last two World Cups - but they
never have.
* England are going to win it every time according to the English - but they
never do.
And there are some interesting statistics:
# No team has successfully defended the WC for a long while. Would the
2006 winner Italy be the exception? But Italy has an aging squad and may
not be expected to last all the way. It is easier to reach the top, but much
harder to stay there!
# Only once in the last 21 group games has the WC host lost, so would
South Africa be the surprise package?
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Why Spain will Win
With one loss in their last 46 matches, Spain arrived at South Africa as one
of the best teams. They are the favorites to lift the World Cup on July 11.
They are ahead of Brazil in the eyes of the bookmakers and pundits.
Spain (Rank 1) play in Group H against Chile (Rank 17), Switzerland (Rank
18) and Honduras (Rank 38).
They have been dubbed by the media in the past as "perennial
underachiever". But the faith of their fans may be justified this time as they
have completely turned the corner after winning Euro 2008. They had built
on this success and thereafter had won all of their qualifying games for WC
2010, the first team to achieve such a record.
The Talents
Spain is a team with polished gems. They boast the talents of Fernando
Torres and David Villa up front, Xavi and Andres Iniesta, Xabi Alonso and
Cesc Fabregas in the middle, Carles Puyol and Gerrard Pique at the back,

4. and Iker Casillas in goal. The reigning European champion look a
formidable bunch.
They are stacked with players from the elite leagues in Europe like
Barcelona and Real Madrid. The squad has so much depth that even the
impressive Arsenal captain Fabregas, whom many consider as one of the
best midfielders around, has to warm the bench as a substitute.
A well balanced team is needed to have the consistency to get through such
a high level tournament. Look at Argentina. The hope of the entire nation
rests on the shoulders of young Messi. But Messi does not perform for his
country like he does for Barcelona because he does not have the midfield
marshals like Xavi and Iniesta behind him to pull the strings. And I shall
leave the Argentina manager alone.
The Spanish squad has been largely unchanged from the team that won Euro
2008. Playing together for years can only foster better understanding on the
pitch. The Spain of today exude calm and confidence. Wearing the European
crown does such things to you.
Injury
Of course injury is a concern but this is the same for every team. Torres and
Fabregas missed playing the tail end of the league due to injuries. To look
on the bright side, this could actually be a blessing in disguise as they are
totally rested for the World Cup.
Spain has a deep squad with comparatively able replacements. They are not
a one or two men team like Ivory Coast relying on Drogba.
If injuries are inflicted on play-makers, any team will suffer like Rooney for
England, Lucio and Kaka for Brazil, Messi for Argentina, Sneijder for
Holland, etc. Serious injuries are a disaster for every team.
Pressure
Being ranked No. 1 and as hot favorites, expectations are high. Will Spain
crack under the pressure?
Much was made out of their 2-0 defeat in the Confederations Cup semi-final
to USA last June. This ended their 35 match streak without a loss. Some said

5. Spain buckled under the pressure in that match because they wanted so
much to break Brazil's 35 match streak of not suffering a loss. To many this
is considered a great weakness to cave in to pressure.
A lot of teams lose matches that they should win. Most important is to learn
a lesson from the loss. I believe the Spanish had indeed learned a valuable
lesson. From then on, they had not lost again.
Mental Strength
Psychologists often stress that half of the battle is won in the head.
Unfortunately, Spain have the unwanted tag of perennial choker on the big
stage. In the past when the going gets tough, they have gone missing.
But now all the players pledged that they know their biggest enemy is
themselves and they have developed greater self belief.
Complacency
There is a great threat of complacency when facing the likes of Honduras,
Chile and Switzerland. I am confident that with an experienced coach in del
Bosque, the players will know in no uncertain terms that a place in the
second round is not a formality.
Assurance and over-confidence is divided by a very fine line. The last thing
they will think is they have already won the match even before the ball is
kicked.
How To Beat Spain
Some said the way to beat Spain is to follow the tactics of Jose Mourinho
whose Inter Milan succeeded where virtually everybody failed by knocking
Barcelona out of the Champions League. The tactic is to have the players
defend deep in their own half, soaking up the pressure thrown at them and
rely on swift counter-attack to score. Well, I am not sure whether there could
be another "Special One' around.
Conclusion
If Spain keep their heads they will win World Cup 2010. If they don't, they
are simply beaten by themselves.

6. Stanley O is a Chartered Accountant and soccer has been his passion since
young. He has extensive experience in soccer betting. You can "crack" the
soccer live betting market and make the "big bucks" once you know how to
identify the money making indicators in the odds movement. The #1
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