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Perspective on Fiber-to-the-Home
National Broadband Plan Perspective ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Consumer Driven Broadband ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Last 6 months    Video streaming doubled Ubiquitous Video    Entertainment, Education, Communication
U.S. FTTP Service Providers  FTTP Technology by Number of Companies Source: Broadband Properties, November 2009 Nov. 2009 Nov. 2008
FCC Estimates on Broadband Table from FCC September Commission Meeting, September 29, 2009 Capability of Estimated Commercial Deployments  Housing Units Requiring Upgrade to Reach Each Tier Incremental Cost to Universal Availability of These Advertised Speeds (Best Estimate) .768-3 Mbps 3-6 Million $20 Billion 3-10 Mbps 7-10 Million $35 Billion 10-30 Mbps 33-37 Million $50 Billion 100+ Mbps 111-116 Million $350 Billion
FTTH Costs: Passing & Serving Homes Backbone / Central Office Passing Homes Serving  Homes Sources:  CSMG, Hiawatha Broadband, Jaguar, Finley Engineering  Factors that increase the FTTH investment required include: lower household density, greater linear distance between households, fewer homes per CO, higher service uptake, more buried plant Passive Optical Splitters Central Office (CO) Data Ethernet Switch Internet OLT EDFA IT / OSS / BSS Drop Set-top Box Phone ONT Data RF Video Only Service Provider Cost to Pass Per HU Incremental Cost per HU HU Density  Verizon $700 $650 >100’s /sq. mile Jaguar (Rural Minnesota) $1438 $693 28.53 /sq. mile Finley Engineering Case Studies (w/Hiawatha BB)  $1871 $750 14.33 /route mile
Verizon’s Cost Per Home Served Actual cost per home served at a 30% take rate for 1000 homes: $700 X 1,000 = $700,000 to pass 1,000 homes $650 X 300 = $195,000 to serve 300 homes $895,000/300=$2,983 per home served 30% Take Rate 50% Take Rate 100% Take Rate Cost per Home Passed $700 $700 $700 Incremental Cost per Home Served $650 $650 $650 Actual Cost per Home Served $2983 $2050 $1350
Rural FTTH Cost Per Home Passed Costs based on average of nine FTTH projects in the midwest. Verizon’s incremental cost per home served is $100 per home less.  But Verizon’s take rates are much less. Higher costs in rural areas are partly offset by rural operators’ higher penetration rates  30% Take Rate 50% Take Rate 100% Take Rate Cost per Home Passed $1655 $1655 $1655 Incremental Cost per Home Served $722 $722 $722 Actual Cost per Home Served $6238 $4032 $2377
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Cost to Deploy Fiber ,[object Object],[object Object],Source:  FCC Filings, SNL Kagan, CSMG Analysis Hiawatha Broadband (MN – 6 urban markets) Verizon FiOS Footprint 2009 FTTH Costs to Pass per HH Jaguar Comm. Blooming Prairie City MN Jaguar Comm. All markets average Jaguar Comm. Somerset MN Jaguar Comm. Blooming Prairie MN Jaguar Comm. Summit MN Jaguar Comm. Aurora MN
Working the FCC Estimate Backwards  ,[object Object],[object Object],y = -467.24 Ln(x) + 3658.9 y = -467.24 Ln(14) + 3658.9 y = -1233.1 + 3658.9 y = 2425.8 100% Take Rate Cost per Home Passed $2434 Incremental Cost per Home Served $650 Actual Cost per Home Served $3084
The Cost To Fiber The U.S. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Is the U.S. Population Clustered? Source:  US Census Bureau
Adjusting for Low Population Areas ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Revised Fiber Build Out Estimates  ,[object Object],[object Object],@50 HU/sq mile Cost per Home Passed $1831 Incremental Cost per Home $650 Actual Cost per Home Served $2481 @72 HU/sq mile Cost per Home Passed $1661 Incremental Cost per Home $650 Actual Cost per Home Served $2311
Housing is Concentrated County Name County HH Density Burwell, NE Lancaster, NH Jamestown, TN Garfield County, Nebraska 1.4 HHs per sq. mi. Coos County, New Hampshire 7.8 HHs per sq. mi. Fentress County, Tennessee 13.4 HHs per sq. mi. Example Locality Example Rural Localities & Household Density ,[object Object],Source: Google Earth, US Census Bureau, CSMG Analysis
Jaguar Cost Per Home Passed Housing Units per Square Mile $1438 Over half of the housing units are located in town, lowering the average cost to service the area by over $664 per home (28 HU per sq. mile=$2102)
$206 Billion to Fiber U.S. Sources:  US Census Bureau Data, Render Vanderslice, CSMG cost model Largely Unoccupied <1 HU/sq. m Very Low Density 1-5 HU  Rural  Non-Metro Rural Metro Urban Non-Metro Pop. 2500+ Urban Metro Non-Metro Total 22,543,000 345,000 2,256,000 10,691,000 n/a 9,251,000  n/a Metro Total 106,467,000 n/a n/a n/a 13,779,000   n/a 92,688,000 Fiber Passed Today 0 0 500,000 Included in rural non-metro 500,000 17,000,000 Future FTTH Homes 0 0 10,191,000 13,779,000 8,751,000 75,688,000 Cost Model n/a n/a Worst Case 6 HU/sq m $3840 Worst Case 6 HU/sq m $3840 Verizon Costs Verizon Costs Cost n/a n/a $39.1 B $52.9 B $11.8 B $102.1 B
Summary and Recommendations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Thank you

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Americas Broadband Future David Russell

  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4. U.S. FTTP Service Providers FTTP Technology by Number of Companies Source: Broadband Properties, November 2009 Nov. 2009 Nov. 2008
  • 5. FCC Estimates on Broadband Table from FCC September Commission Meeting, September 29, 2009 Capability of Estimated Commercial Deployments Housing Units Requiring Upgrade to Reach Each Tier Incremental Cost to Universal Availability of These Advertised Speeds (Best Estimate) .768-3 Mbps 3-6 Million $20 Billion 3-10 Mbps 7-10 Million $35 Billion 10-30 Mbps 33-37 Million $50 Billion 100+ Mbps 111-116 Million $350 Billion
  • 6. FTTH Costs: Passing & Serving Homes Backbone / Central Office Passing Homes Serving Homes Sources: CSMG, Hiawatha Broadband, Jaguar, Finley Engineering Factors that increase the FTTH investment required include: lower household density, greater linear distance between households, fewer homes per CO, higher service uptake, more buried plant Passive Optical Splitters Central Office (CO) Data Ethernet Switch Internet OLT EDFA IT / OSS / BSS Drop Set-top Box Phone ONT Data RF Video Only Service Provider Cost to Pass Per HU Incremental Cost per HU HU Density Verizon $700 $650 >100’s /sq. mile Jaguar (Rural Minnesota) $1438 $693 28.53 /sq. mile Finley Engineering Case Studies (w/Hiawatha BB) $1871 $750 14.33 /route mile
  • 7. Verizon’s Cost Per Home Served Actual cost per home served at a 30% take rate for 1000 homes: $700 X 1,000 = $700,000 to pass 1,000 homes $650 X 300 = $195,000 to serve 300 homes $895,000/300=$2,983 per home served 30% Take Rate 50% Take Rate 100% Take Rate Cost per Home Passed $700 $700 $700 Incremental Cost per Home Served $650 $650 $650 Actual Cost per Home Served $2983 $2050 $1350
  • 8. Rural FTTH Cost Per Home Passed Costs based on average of nine FTTH projects in the midwest. Verizon’s incremental cost per home served is $100 per home less. But Verizon’s take rates are much less. Higher costs in rural areas are partly offset by rural operators’ higher penetration rates 30% Take Rate 50% Take Rate 100% Take Rate Cost per Home Passed $1655 $1655 $1655 Incremental Cost per Home Served $722 $722 $722 Actual Cost per Home Served $6238 $4032 $2377
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12. Is the U.S. Population Clustered? Source: US Census Bureau
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 16. Jaguar Cost Per Home Passed Housing Units per Square Mile $1438 Over half of the housing units are located in town, lowering the average cost to service the area by over $664 per home (28 HU per sq. mile=$2102)
  • 17. $206 Billion to Fiber U.S. Sources: US Census Bureau Data, Render Vanderslice, CSMG cost model Largely Unoccupied <1 HU/sq. m Very Low Density 1-5 HU Rural Non-Metro Rural Metro Urban Non-Metro Pop. 2500+ Urban Metro Non-Metro Total 22,543,000 345,000 2,256,000 10,691,000 n/a 9,251,000 n/a Metro Total 106,467,000 n/a n/a n/a 13,779,000 n/a 92,688,000 Fiber Passed Today 0 0 500,000 Included in rural non-metro 500,000 17,000,000 Future FTTH Homes 0 0 10,191,000 13,779,000 8,751,000 75,688,000 Cost Model n/a n/a Worst Case 6 HU/sq m $3840 Worst Case 6 HU/sq m $3840 Verizon Costs Verizon Costs Cost n/a n/a $39.1 B $52.9 B $11.8 B $102.1 B
  • 18.