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Professional Development Short Course On:

                          Reducing Space Launch Cost


                                          Instructor:
                                     Edward L. Keith




ATI Course Schedule:                http://www.ATIcourses.com/schedule.htm
ATI's Reducing Space Launch Cost:   http://www.aticourses.com/reducing_space_launch_cost.htm




 349 Berkshire Drive • Riva, Maryland 21140
 888-501-2100 • 410-956-8805
 Website: www.ATIcourses.com • Email: ATI@ATIcourses.com
Reducing Space Launch Cost
                             Applying Better, Faster & Cheaper to Launch Vehicle Missions


SUMMARY
           This seminar is the only all-inclusive source of
information on the methods for understanding, managing
and designing cost-driven launch vehicle systems. The
instruction provides a practical introduction to economy-
driven space transportation. Emphasis is on using cost               COURSE OUTLINE
models and tools to determine optimum economic space
mission solutions. The course gives balanced coverage on        1.   The Problems and How We Got Here. What if anything is wrong
the economic, technical and political motivation behind              with the current system? What is the interaction of reliability,
current and future space transportation initatives. Insight          availability, and safety on mission economy.
into how alternative infrastructures have evolved under         2.   What Has Been Done To Solve the Problem and can the
different conditions is illustrated by comparing Western with
                                                                     Problem be Solved? Many options such as ALS, NLS, Spacelifter,
former Soviet strategies and methods. Rival concepts for
                                                                     and NASP have been explored, but none have borne fruit. How can we
more economical launch vehicle systems are carefully
                                                                     avoid making costly mistakes in the future? Russian methods will be
examined for the reality of their claims. Streamlined
                                                                     examined.
methodlogies and strategies are discussed. The impacts of
safety, reliability and dependability on mission economy are    3.   Why Are Costs So High? What is it about space transportation
examined.                                                            operations that make them so expensive? The concept of learning curve,
                                                                     order quantity, economics of scale and special handling will be
                                                                     addressed.
                                                                4.   Cost Model Analysis. The uses and abuses of cost models. The
                                                                     TRANSCOST model will be examined for lessons in economic
INSTRUCTOR                                                           development and fabrication.
Edward L. Keith, is a multi-discipline Launch Vehicle           5.   Using Tools to Determine the Outcome. Strategies, based on Cost
System Engineer, specializing in integration of launch               Models, for minimum cost design will continue. Strategies to minimize
vehicle technology, design, modeling and business                    the life cycle costs will be examined.
strategies. He is an independent consultant, writer and         6.   Existing Launch Vehicles and Next-Generation Alternatives.
teacher of rocket system technology. He is                          The technology and economically of the existing fleet of domestic and
experienced in launch vehicle operations, design,                   foreign launch vehicles will be discussed. The economic basis for the
                                                                    next-generation space transportation vehicles will be examined.
testing, business analysis, risk reduction, modeling,
                                                                7. Expendable and Reusable Launch Vehicle Economics. Key
safety and reliability. Mr. Keith's experience extends
                                                                    economic and technical drivers of expendable and reusable launch
to both reusable and expendable launch vehicles, as                 vehicles are identified. Strategies for economic implementation are
well as to both solid and liquid rocket systems. Mr.                examined.
Keith has designed complete rocket engines, rocket              8. The Significance of Performance. What is the significance of
vehicles, small propulsion systems, and composite                   engine performance, propellant density and number of stages?
propellant tank systems, especially designed for low            9. The Role of Single Stage to Orbit. What technology is needed for
cost, as a propulsion and launch vehicle engineer. His              an SSTO? What do cost models say about SSTO concepts. Are they
travels have taken him to Russia, China, Australia and              practical, economical and technically?
other launch operations centers throughout the world.           10. Launch Site Operational Economics. What economics are
 Mr. Keith has worked the Space Launch Initiative and               available to make launch operations less expensive.
the Liquid Fly-Back Booster programs for Boeing,                11. Safety and Reliability Issues. Can launch vehicles be made safer,
originated the Scorpius Program for Microcosm,                      more reliable and be more economic at the same time?
worked on the Brilliant Eyes and the Advanced Solid             12. The Space Transportation Market. How does the cost of space
Rocket Motor Programs for Rockwell and worked on                    transportation affect overall space mission technology, operations
the Aerojet Launch Detection Satellite program. He                  and economics? Evidence of inelastic demand will be provided.
also has 13-years of government experience including            13. The Effects of the Procurement System. The implications of
five years working launch operations at Vandenberg                  government procurement in an inelastic market are examined. The
AFB. Mr. Keith has written 18 technical papers on                   rewards and punishment stimulus will be explored.
various aspects of low cost space transportation over           14. Private Investment, Privatization, and Low-Cost Space
the last decade.                                                    Transportation. The issue of space transportation investment will
                                                                    be covered. How will business be done differently if private space
                                                                    transportation is to succeed?




                                              APPLIED TECHNOLOGY INSTITUTE
                      349 Berkshire Drive, Riva, MD 21140 410-956-8805 / 888-501-2100 Fax: 410-956-5785
                                                      www.ATIcourses.com
www.ATIcourses.com

Boost Your Skills                                             349 Berkshire Drive
                                                              Riva, Maryland 21140
with On-Site Courses                                          Telephone 1-888-501-2100 / (410) 965-8805

Tailored to Your Needs
                                                              Fax (410) 956-5785
                                                              Email: ATI@ATIcourses.com

The Applied Technology Institute specializes in training programs for technical professionals. Our courses keep you
current in the state-of-the-art technology that is essential to keep your company on the cutting edge in today’s highly
competitive marketplace. Since 1984, ATI has earned the trust of training departments nationwide, and has presented
on-site training at the major Navy, Air Force and NASA centers, and for a large number of contractors. Our training
increases effectiveness and productivity. Learn from the proven best.

For a Free On-Site Quote Visit Us At: http://www.ATIcourses.com/free_onsite_quote.asp

For Our Current Public Course Schedule Go To: http://www.ATIcourses.com/schedule.htm
Reducing Space Launch Costs
                      Class Sampler
          This is the most advanced class available concerning
          the issues of reducing space launch costs. The
          same science-based principals are applied to both
          expendable and reusable systems. Strategies
          applicable to any concept that will reduce both
          Development and Operational costs are explained.
          Modeling as Trade Study tools are emphasized.




© 2004, Edward L. Keith
                                                           ATI
                            Reducing Launch Cost Sampler         Sample-1
Concept of Algorithm Maturity Level
     •   Algorithm Maturity Level (AML) is a metric
           – AML-1 Place holding conjecture, no valid algorithm known
           – AML-2 Conjecture, new algorithm with limited
             scientific basis
           – ACL-3 Conjecture, unproven algorithm with reasonable
             Scientific Hypothesis
           – ACL-4 Algorithm with Scientific hypothesis and some
             supporting evidence
           – ACL-5 Algorithm with scientific principal and
             significant supporting evidence
           – ACL-6 Algorithm Published, but not generally known
             or used
           – ACL-7 Widely used, but lacks rigorous peer review
           – ACL-8 Algorithm Peer reviewed and accepted with
             some controversy
           – ACL-9 Algorithm Peer reviewed and accepted
             throughout the community
                                                             ATI
© 2003, Edward L. Keith       Reducing Launch Cost Sampler     Sample-2
Concept of a Search Model



              All
           Possible
           Choices,
            1 to n
            Integrated
             Models              Yes
                                          Save
           Outcome        Better?         Best
                                          Case

              Next n
                           End

© 2003, Edward L. Keith                                     ATI
                             Reducing Launch Cost Sampler     Sample-3
Cost Models Look Like and Equation
   •     dV=Isp * g * ln(M/m)               •    C = A (M)x
   •     An Equation                        •    A Model
   •     Exact Answer                       •    Ballpark (+/- 25%)
   •     Derived from Physics               •    Derived from History
   •     Permanent                          •    Temporary
   •     Scientific (Mathematics)           •    Scientific (Economic)
     •   A cost model is based on historic observations reduced to
         algorithms
          – Based on Past Successful Experience
              • Useful as planning tool
          Cost Models look like equations, but they are not. Cost
           Models are the most critical element to be understood
         in the search for more economical Space Transportation
                           choices and decisions.

© 1995-2004, Edward L. Keith
                                                                   ATI
                               Reducing Launch Cost Sampler              Sample-4
Doing Business Differently
   •   What about all the hundreds of ways of doing business that
       should lower the cost estimation relationship coefficient
       and exponent?

                                                     Worth a look?
                               C=A     M(x)

 Major target ignored                     Engineers try to
  by most engineers.                     control this factor.
 (large delta possible)                 (small delta possible)
   •   The primary objective of doing business differently is to
       reduce the value of the coefficient A
        – Business strategies that reduce the value of A by a
          factor of ten or even two would make an enormous
          difference in costs
© 1995-2004, Edward L. Keith
                               Reducing Launch Cost Sampler          Sample-5
Reducto Ad Absurdum – Your Opinion
               •   Discuss the Microcosm Strategy
                    – Seven identical rocket pods, each
                      with seven identical engines,
                      organized into three stages
                       • 49 engines in all
                           – Each engine so “cheap” that
                             “a pound of hamburger
                             costs more than a pound of
                             thrust”
               •   Discuss the Conastoga Strategy
                    – Seven Castor-4 solid rocket motors
                      plus a Star-48 fourth stage
                       • Only $73-million to develop
               •   Were the two strategies sound?
               •   Were they based on the same principal
© 2003, Edward L. Keith
                              Reducing Launch Cost Sampler   Sample-6
Operational Cost Elements
     •    Direct Operational Costs         * Handbook of Cost Engineering (7.0)

           • Pre-launch Ground Operations Cost
           • Propellant Costs
           • Flight and Mission Operations
           • Transport and Recovery Costs (if any) [like SRB]
           • Fees and Insurance
     •    Refurbishment and Spares
           • Vehicle
           • Engines
     •    Indirect Operational Costs
           • System Management & Administration (Shared)
           • Launch Site Support and Maintenance
           • Technical Assistance and Network Support
         Each of the above elements will be examined more Closely
© 2002-2004, Edward L. Keith
                                Reducing Launch Cost Sampler
                                                                 ATI
                                                                       Sample-7
Delta-II Analysis
     •   The Delta-II is probably the most cost-effective
         American launch vehicle
     •   Number of flights (302 as of 12/21/03 [inc Delta-III])
          – Effects of major modification and “improvements”
     •   Degree of modularity
          – Up to nine SRMs in stage one (50% of impulse)
             • Production rate up to 6 / month
             • 1,600 Older Castor IVB SRMs produced
     •   Degree of simplification – Relatively High
          – Simple solid rocket motors
          – Single engine 1950s technology core stage one
          – Pressure-fed 1950s technology stage two
          – Unguided SRM Stage three (option)



© 2002-2004, Edward L. Keith
                                 Reducing Launch Cost Sampler     Sample-8
Pre Launch Operations Cost Model
     •   C = 8 * Mo 0.67 * L-0.9 * N 0.7 * fv * fc * f4 [in man-years]
           –   Where

                 • Mo is gross mass of the vehicle
                 • N is the number of stages
                 • L = Launches per Annum
                 • fv = Launch Vehicle Type
                      – For Multistage ELV using LOX/LH2 fv = 1.0
                      – For Multistage ELV using Other Liquid fv = 0.8
                      – For Multistage ELV using Solid Motors fv = 0.3
                      – For Automated RLV SSTO fv = 0.7
                      – Shuttle-Like Crewed RLV fv = 1.8
                 • fc = Assembly and Integration Mode
                      – For Vertical Assy & CO on-pad fc = 1.0
                      – For Vertical Assy & CO, transport to pad fc = 0.7
                      – For Horizontal Assy & CO, pad erection fc = 0.5
                 • f4 = Learning Curve
© 2002, Edward L. Keith
                                                                         ATI
                                 Reducing Launch Cost Sampler              Sample-9
Space Transportation is a Virtual Market

     •   There is no real space transportation market
          – The market is for Space Missions
          – No one buys a ride to space without two other essential
             ingredients.
               • Payload and Operations
     •   Since launch vehicles are part of the overall space mission
         market, there must be a interdependent economic
         relationship.
          – You cannot look at the system of a space mission as
             independent elements
               • The launch, spacecraft and ground operations are
                 part of the whole and indivisible

              There is no market for empty dog food cans. When
              you want a case of dog food, you get a carton, cans
              and the dog food itself. The market is for dog food.
© 2002-2004, Edward L. Keith
                               Reducing Launch Cost Sampler      Sample-10
Commercialization of Launch Vehicles
     •   The first launch vehicle generations were designed and
         developed under government contracts by aerospace
         companies, and then operated by same aerospace
         contractors under Government Agencies management
          – The government paid contractors to develop launch
            vehicles, which the same contractor then operated as a
            profitable business

           All risk of failed project and all sunk costs were borne
         by the government. All profit of developing a successful
          or a failed project went to the contractor. All profit from
         operating a successful project also went to the contractor

     •   Why should the government take all the risks and pay a
         company to enter a non-risky profitable business?


© 2004, Edward L. Keith
                              Reducing Launch Cost Sampler        Sample-11
Reducing RLV Theory to Science
     •   State the Problem : The cost of Space Transportation is
         excessively high because the expendable launch vehicles
         are thrown away after only one use
     •   Research the Problem : There is an alternative to the ELV
         systems in use since 1957, Reusable Launch Vehicles
     •   Form a Hypothesis : RLV systems will be more cost
         effective because the manufacturing cost of each vehicle
         can be spread over many missions
     •   Test the Hypothesis : According to the results of the Space
         Shuttle operations, and of detailed RLV modeling, the
         hypothesis is not supported at this time
     •   Draw a Conclusion From the Data : The reusable Space
         Shuttle did not achieve the intended low cost operations. In
         point of fact, Space Shuttle operations were far more costly
         than that of the ELV systems it intended to replace.
         Further, detailed modeling suggests the high cost of RLV
         development is not justified at this time, and operational
         savings are less than claimed by proponents
© 2004, Edward L. Keith
                            Reducing Launch Cost Sampler       Sample-12
Boost Your Skills
    with On-Site Courses
    Tailored to Your Needs
    The Applied Technology Institute specializes in training programs for technical
  professionals. Our courses keep you current in the state-of-the-art technology that is
  essential to keep your company on the cutting edge in today’s highly competitive
  marketplace. For 20 years, we have earned the trust of training departments nationwide,
  and have presented on-site training at the major Navy, Air Force and NASA centers, and for a
  large number of contractors. Our training increases effectiveness and productivity. Learn
  from the proven best.
  ATI’s on-site courses offer these cost-effective advantages:
    • You design, control, and schedule the course.
    • Since the program involves only your personnel, confidentiality is maintained. You can
      freely discuss company issues and programs. Classified programs can also be arranged.
    • Your employees may attend all or only the most relevant part of the course.
    • Our instructors are the best in the business, averaging 25 to 35 years of practical, real-
      world experience. Carefully selected for both technical expertise and teaching ability, they
      provide information that is practical and ready to use immediately.
    • Our on-site programs can save your facility 30% to 50%, plus additional savings by
      eliminating employee travel time and expenses.
    • The ATI Satisfaction Guarantee: You must be completely satisfied with our program.
  We suggest you look at ATI course descriptions in this catalog and on the ATI website.
  Visit and bookmark ATI’s website at http://www.ATIcourses.com for descriptions of all
  of our courses in these areas:
    • Communications & Computer Programming
    • Radar/EW/Combat Systems
    • Signal Processing & Information Technology
    • Sonar & Acoustic Engineering
    • Spacecraft & Satellite Engineering
  I suggest that you read through these course descriptions and then call me personally, Jim
  Jenkins, at (410) 531-6034, and I’ll explain what we can do for you, what it will cost, and what
  you can expect in results and future capabilities.
                  Our training helps you and your organization
                   remain competitive in this changing world.

Register online at www.aticourses.com or call ATI at 888.501.2100 or 410.531.6034

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ATI Reducing Space Launch Cost Professional Development Technical Training Short Course

  • 1. Professional Development Short Course On: Reducing Space Launch Cost Instructor: Edward L. Keith ATI Course Schedule: http://www.ATIcourses.com/schedule.htm ATI's Reducing Space Launch Cost: http://www.aticourses.com/reducing_space_launch_cost.htm 349 Berkshire Drive • Riva, Maryland 21140 888-501-2100 • 410-956-8805 Website: www.ATIcourses.com • Email: ATI@ATIcourses.com
  • 2. Reducing Space Launch Cost Applying Better, Faster & Cheaper to Launch Vehicle Missions SUMMARY This seminar is the only all-inclusive source of information on the methods for understanding, managing and designing cost-driven launch vehicle systems. The instruction provides a practical introduction to economy- driven space transportation. Emphasis is on using cost COURSE OUTLINE models and tools to determine optimum economic space mission solutions. The course gives balanced coverage on 1. The Problems and How We Got Here. What if anything is wrong the economic, technical and political motivation behind with the current system? What is the interaction of reliability, current and future space transportation initatives. Insight availability, and safety on mission economy. into how alternative infrastructures have evolved under 2. What Has Been Done To Solve the Problem and can the different conditions is illustrated by comparing Western with Problem be Solved? Many options such as ALS, NLS, Spacelifter, former Soviet strategies and methods. Rival concepts for and NASP have been explored, but none have borne fruit. How can we more economical launch vehicle systems are carefully avoid making costly mistakes in the future? Russian methods will be examined for the reality of their claims. Streamlined examined. methodlogies and strategies are discussed. The impacts of safety, reliability and dependability on mission economy are 3. Why Are Costs So High? What is it about space transportation examined. operations that make them so expensive? The concept of learning curve, order quantity, economics of scale and special handling will be addressed. 4. Cost Model Analysis. The uses and abuses of cost models. The TRANSCOST model will be examined for lessons in economic INSTRUCTOR development and fabrication. Edward L. Keith, is a multi-discipline Launch Vehicle 5. Using Tools to Determine the Outcome. Strategies, based on Cost System Engineer, specializing in integration of launch Models, for minimum cost design will continue. Strategies to minimize vehicle technology, design, modeling and business the life cycle costs will be examined. strategies. He is an independent consultant, writer and 6. Existing Launch Vehicles and Next-Generation Alternatives. teacher of rocket system technology. He is The technology and economically of the existing fleet of domestic and experienced in launch vehicle operations, design, foreign launch vehicles will be discussed. The economic basis for the next-generation space transportation vehicles will be examined. testing, business analysis, risk reduction, modeling, 7. Expendable and Reusable Launch Vehicle Economics. Key safety and reliability. Mr. Keith's experience extends economic and technical drivers of expendable and reusable launch to both reusable and expendable launch vehicles, as vehicles are identified. Strategies for economic implementation are well as to both solid and liquid rocket systems. Mr. examined. Keith has designed complete rocket engines, rocket 8. The Significance of Performance. What is the significance of vehicles, small propulsion systems, and composite engine performance, propellant density and number of stages? propellant tank systems, especially designed for low 9. The Role of Single Stage to Orbit. What technology is needed for cost, as a propulsion and launch vehicle engineer. His an SSTO? What do cost models say about SSTO concepts. Are they travels have taken him to Russia, China, Australia and practical, economical and technically? other launch operations centers throughout the world. 10. Launch Site Operational Economics. What economics are Mr. Keith has worked the Space Launch Initiative and available to make launch operations less expensive. the Liquid Fly-Back Booster programs for Boeing, 11. Safety and Reliability Issues. Can launch vehicles be made safer, originated the Scorpius Program for Microcosm, more reliable and be more economic at the same time? worked on the Brilliant Eyes and the Advanced Solid 12. The Space Transportation Market. How does the cost of space Rocket Motor Programs for Rockwell and worked on transportation affect overall space mission technology, operations the Aerojet Launch Detection Satellite program. He and economics? Evidence of inelastic demand will be provided. also has 13-years of government experience including 13. The Effects of the Procurement System. The implications of five years working launch operations at Vandenberg government procurement in an inelastic market are examined. The AFB. Mr. Keith has written 18 technical papers on rewards and punishment stimulus will be explored. various aspects of low cost space transportation over 14. Private Investment, Privatization, and Low-Cost Space the last decade. Transportation. The issue of space transportation investment will be covered. How will business be done differently if private space transportation is to succeed? APPLIED TECHNOLOGY INSTITUTE 349 Berkshire Drive, Riva, MD 21140 410-956-8805 / 888-501-2100 Fax: 410-956-5785 www.ATIcourses.com
  • 3. www.ATIcourses.com Boost Your Skills 349 Berkshire Drive Riva, Maryland 21140 with On-Site Courses Telephone 1-888-501-2100 / (410) 965-8805 Tailored to Your Needs Fax (410) 956-5785 Email: ATI@ATIcourses.com The Applied Technology Institute specializes in training programs for technical professionals. Our courses keep you current in the state-of-the-art technology that is essential to keep your company on the cutting edge in today’s highly competitive marketplace. Since 1984, ATI has earned the trust of training departments nationwide, and has presented on-site training at the major Navy, Air Force and NASA centers, and for a large number of contractors. Our training increases effectiveness and productivity. Learn from the proven best. For a Free On-Site Quote Visit Us At: http://www.ATIcourses.com/free_onsite_quote.asp For Our Current Public Course Schedule Go To: http://www.ATIcourses.com/schedule.htm
  • 4. Reducing Space Launch Costs Class Sampler This is the most advanced class available concerning the issues of reducing space launch costs. The same science-based principals are applied to both expendable and reusable systems. Strategies applicable to any concept that will reduce both Development and Operational costs are explained. Modeling as Trade Study tools are emphasized. © 2004, Edward L. Keith ATI Reducing Launch Cost Sampler Sample-1
  • 5. Concept of Algorithm Maturity Level • Algorithm Maturity Level (AML) is a metric – AML-1 Place holding conjecture, no valid algorithm known – AML-2 Conjecture, new algorithm with limited scientific basis – ACL-3 Conjecture, unproven algorithm with reasonable Scientific Hypothesis – ACL-4 Algorithm with Scientific hypothesis and some supporting evidence – ACL-5 Algorithm with scientific principal and significant supporting evidence – ACL-6 Algorithm Published, but not generally known or used – ACL-7 Widely used, but lacks rigorous peer review – ACL-8 Algorithm Peer reviewed and accepted with some controversy – ACL-9 Algorithm Peer reviewed and accepted throughout the community ATI © 2003, Edward L. Keith Reducing Launch Cost Sampler Sample-2
  • 6. Concept of a Search Model All Possible Choices, 1 to n Integrated Models Yes Save Outcome Better? Best Case Next n End © 2003, Edward L. Keith ATI Reducing Launch Cost Sampler Sample-3
  • 7. Cost Models Look Like and Equation • dV=Isp * g * ln(M/m) • C = A (M)x • An Equation • A Model • Exact Answer • Ballpark (+/- 25%) • Derived from Physics • Derived from History • Permanent • Temporary • Scientific (Mathematics) • Scientific (Economic) • A cost model is based on historic observations reduced to algorithms – Based on Past Successful Experience • Useful as planning tool Cost Models look like equations, but they are not. Cost Models are the most critical element to be understood in the search for more economical Space Transportation choices and decisions. © 1995-2004, Edward L. Keith ATI Reducing Launch Cost Sampler Sample-4
  • 8. Doing Business Differently • What about all the hundreds of ways of doing business that should lower the cost estimation relationship coefficient and exponent? Worth a look? C=A M(x) Major target ignored Engineers try to by most engineers. control this factor. (large delta possible) (small delta possible) • The primary objective of doing business differently is to reduce the value of the coefficient A – Business strategies that reduce the value of A by a factor of ten or even two would make an enormous difference in costs © 1995-2004, Edward L. Keith Reducing Launch Cost Sampler Sample-5
  • 9. Reducto Ad Absurdum – Your Opinion • Discuss the Microcosm Strategy – Seven identical rocket pods, each with seven identical engines, organized into three stages • 49 engines in all – Each engine so “cheap” that “a pound of hamburger costs more than a pound of thrust” • Discuss the Conastoga Strategy – Seven Castor-4 solid rocket motors plus a Star-48 fourth stage • Only $73-million to develop • Were the two strategies sound? • Were they based on the same principal © 2003, Edward L. Keith Reducing Launch Cost Sampler Sample-6
  • 10. Operational Cost Elements • Direct Operational Costs * Handbook of Cost Engineering (7.0) • Pre-launch Ground Operations Cost • Propellant Costs • Flight and Mission Operations • Transport and Recovery Costs (if any) [like SRB] • Fees and Insurance • Refurbishment and Spares • Vehicle • Engines • Indirect Operational Costs • System Management & Administration (Shared) • Launch Site Support and Maintenance • Technical Assistance and Network Support Each of the above elements will be examined more Closely © 2002-2004, Edward L. Keith Reducing Launch Cost Sampler ATI Sample-7
  • 11. Delta-II Analysis • The Delta-II is probably the most cost-effective American launch vehicle • Number of flights (302 as of 12/21/03 [inc Delta-III]) – Effects of major modification and “improvements” • Degree of modularity – Up to nine SRMs in stage one (50% of impulse) • Production rate up to 6 / month • 1,600 Older Castor IVB SRMs produced • Degree of simplification – Relatively High – Simple solid rocket motors – Single engine 1950s technology core stage one – Pressure-fed 1950s technology stage two – Unguided SRM Stage three (option) © 2002-2004, Edward L. Keith Reducing Launch Cost Sampler Sample-8
  • 12. Pre Launch Operations Cost Model • C = 8 * Mo 0.67 * L-0.9 * N 0.7 * fv * fc * f4 [in man-years] – Where • Mo is gross mass of the vehicle • N is the number of stages • L = Launches per Annum • fv = Launch Vehicle Type – For Multistage ELV using LOX/LH2 fv = 1.0 – For Multistage ELV using Other Liquid fv = 0.8 – For Multistage ELV using Solid Motors fv = 0.3 – For Automated RLV SSTO fv = 0.7 – Shuttle-Like Crewed RLV fv = 1.8 • fc = Assembly and Integration Mode – For Vertical Assy & CO on-pad fc = 1.0 – For Vertical Assy & CO, transport to pad fc = 0.7 – For Horizontal Assy & CO, pad erection fc = 0.5 • f4 = Learning Curve © 2002, Edward L. Keith ATI Reducing Launch Cost Sampler Sample-9
  • 13. Space Transportation is a Virtual Market • There is no real space transportation market – The market is for Space Missions – No one buys a ride to space without two other essential ingredients. • Payload and Operations • Since launch vehicles are part of the overall space mission market, there must be a interdependent economic relationship. – You cannot look at the system of a space mission as independent elements • The launch, spacecraft and ground operations are part of the whole and indivisible There is no market for empty dog food cans. When you want a case of dog food, you get a carton, cans and the dog food itself. The market is for dog food. © 2002-2004, Edward L. Keith Reducing Launch Cost Sampler Sample-10
  • 14. Commercialization of Launch Vehicles • The first launch vehicle generations were designed and developed under government contracts by aerospace companies, and then operated by same aerospace contractors under Government Agencies management – The government paid contractors to develop launch vehicles, which the same contractor then operated as a profitable business All risk of failed project and all sunk costs were borne by the government. All profit of developing a successful or a failed project went to the contractor. All profit from operating a successful project also went to the contractor • Why should the government take all the risks and pay a company to enter a non-risky profitable business? © 2004, Edward L. Keith Reducing Launch Cost Sampler Sample-11
  • 15. Reducing RLV Theory to Science • State the Problem : The cost of Space Transportation is excessively high because the expendable launch vehicles are thrown away after only one use • Research the Problem : There is an alternative to the ELV systems in use since 1957, Reusable Launch Vehicles • Form a Hypothesis : RLV systems will be more cost effective because the manufacturing cost of each vehicle can be spread over many missions • Test the Hypothesis : According to the results of the Space Shuttle operations, and of detailed RLV modeling, the hypothesis is not supported at this time • Draw a Conclusion From the Data : The reusable Space Shuttle did not achieve the intended low cost operations. In point of fact, Space Shuttle operations were far more costly than that of the ELV systems it intended to replace. Further, detailed modeling suggests the high cost of RLV development is not justified at this time, and operational savings are less than claimed by proponents © 2004, Edward L. Keith Reducing Launch Cost Sampler Sample-12
  • 16. Boost Your Skills with On-Site Courses Tailored to Your Needs The Applied Technology Institute specializes in training programs for technical professionals. Our courses keep you current in the state-of-the-art technology that is essential to keep your company on the cutting edge in today’s highly competitive marketplace. For 20 years, we have earned the trust of training departments nationwide, and have presented on-site training at the major Navy, Air Force and NASA centers, and for a large number of contractors. Our training increases effectiveness and productivity. Learn from the proven best. ATI’s on-site courses offer these cost-effective advantages: • You design, control, and schedule the course. • Since the program involves only your personnel, confidentiality is maintained. You can freely discuss company issues and programs. Classified programs can also be arranged. • Your employees may attend all or only the most relevant part of the course. • Our instructors are the best in the business, averaging 25 to 35 years of practical, real- world experience. Carefully selected for both technical expertise and teaching ability, they provide information that is practical and ready to use immediately. • Our on-site programs can save your facility 30% to 50%, plus additional savings by eliminating employee travel time and expenses. • The ATI Satisfaction Guarantee: You must be completely satisfied with our program. We suggest you look at ATI course descriptions in this catalog and on the ATI website. Visit and bookmark ATI’s website at http://www.ATIcourses.com for descriptions of all of our courses in these areas: • Communications & Computer Programming • Radar/EW/Combat Systems • Signal Processing & Information Technology • Sonar & Acoustic Engineering • Spacecraft & Satellite Engineering I suggest that you read through these course descriptions and then call me personally, Jim Jenkins, at (410) 531-6034, and I’ll explain what we can do for you, what it will cost, and what you can expect in results and future capabilities. Our training helps you and your organization remain competitive in this changing world. Register online at www.aticourses.com or call ATI at 888.501.2100 or 410.531.6034