This presentation was given by Gary Palmer on Wednesday 2nd April 2014. Airbus in Bristol very kindly hosted the event which was well attended by almost 80 of the local APM membership and project management community.
An introductory-level presentation to critical chain project management (CCPM), primarily aimed at those new to the subject.
Critical chain project management (CCPM) is fast emerging as a major step change in project management, dramatically improving project speed and predictability. Although currently relatively little-known in the UK, it has become well-established and highly successful in America, India and Japan, and is predicted to become a dominant methodology within the next few years.
CCPM changes many typical project management practices and behaviours, and by these changes removes the in-built inefficiencies in ‘traditional’ project management, enabling projects to run faster and with more effective protection against uncertainty, whilst providing much improved visibility of progress and monitoring both at the single project and multi-project (programme and portfolio) levels.
This presentation introduces the main principles of CCPM and compares and contrasts them with current project management practices, with an overview of CCPM’s history and development, use of the methods in programme and portfolio situations, current adoption in industry, and implementation considerations.
10. www.criticalpoint.co.uk
CriticalPointConsulting
‘A transportable set of interlinked techniques and
tools that work individually and collaboratively to
significantly improve the processes and operation of
scheduling and execution in any* project, programme
and portfolio environment’
What is CCPM?
10
11. www.criticalpoint.co.uk
CriticalPointConsulting
‘A transportable set of interlinked techniques and
tools that work individually and collaboratively to
significantly improve the processes and operation of
scheduling and execution in any* project, programme
and portfolio environment’
What is CCPM?
11
Transportable: Not industry / sector specific
Applicable in any* project environment
Works with existing project structures
12. www.criticalpoint.co.uk
CriticalPointConsulting
‘A transportable set of interlinked techniques and
tools that work individually and collaboratively to
significantly improve the processes and operation of
scheduling and execution in any* project, programme
and portfolio environment’
What is CCPM?
12
Techniques: Working practices, Behaviours
Tools: Processes, Software
13. www.criticalpoint.co.uk
CriticalPointConsulting
‘A transportable set of interlinked techniques and
tools that work individually and collaboratively to
significantly improve the processes and operation of
scheduling and execution in any* project, programme
and portfolio environment’
What is CCPM?
13
Individually: Resolve a specific problem
Collaboratively: In unison to support the whole
14. www.criticalpoint.co.uk
CriticalPointConsulting
‘A transportable set of interlinked techniques and
tools that work individually and collaboratively to
significantly improve the processes and operation of
scheduling and execution in any* project, programme
and portfolio environment’
What is CCPM?
14
Improvements: Efficient processes
Faster operation
Better work environment
15. www.criticalpoint.co.uk
CriticalPointConsulting
‘A transportable set of interlinked techniques and
tools that work individually and collaboratively to
significantly improve the processes and operation of
scheduling and execution in any* project, programme
and portfolio environment’
What is CCPM?
15
Scheduling: Optimum, realistic schedule
Effective contingency protection
Execution: Efficient working practices
Excellent progress visibility, focus, control
16. www.criticalpoint.co.uk
CriticalPointConsulting
‘A transportable set of interlinked techniques and
tools that work individually and collaboratively to
significantly improve the processes and operation of
scheduling and execution in any * project,
programme and portfolio environment’
What is CCPM?
16
Projects: Single projects
Programme: Multi-project Any Sector
Portfolio: Enterprise-wide
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Planned Completion
Characterised by Deadline Dates and Milestones
Attempt to impose a Rigid construct on a Variable situation
Actual dates will always change
… and will need constant and continued updating
09/09 1/10
13/09 23/09 04/10
10/091/09 15/09 23/09 1/10 15/10
10/09 15/09 21/09 07/10
23/0922/09
30/09
13/10
22/09 03/10 09/10
09/09 14/09 22/09 13/10
14/09 20/09 06/10 13/10
Traditional Project Management
Task Deadline Scheduling – Planning to Fail
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19/10
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3 d7 days
Late Finish
Adds Time
Early Finish
Gain Lost
5 days
5 days 5 days
Planned
2 days added
to schedule
No benefit
to schedule
Parallel Converging Tasks tied to schedule dates
Losses Accumulate - Gains Don’t
…And the schedule moves out
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Traditional Project Management
Task Deadline Scheduling – Planning to Fail
5 days 5 days 5 days
✓
✓
✓
3 d✓
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Calculation: (Task Probability%^no. of tasks)
With a 90% task probability:
10 tasks = 35% probability
20 tasks = 12%
50 tasks = 0.05%
100 tasks = 0.000026%
Q? - How many tasks in your current project?
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Q- What is the probability of all a project’s tasks finishing on time?
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Traditional Project Management
Task Deadline Scheduling – Planning to Fail
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Due Dates attempt a rigid structure on a variable situation
A ‘Train Timetable’ - where the trains never run on time
Parkinson’s Law often prevents early finishes
Losses increase time and costs, not offset by gains
Schedule is guaranteed to require frequent changes
Project end-date slip is almost inevitable
Summary
24
Traditional Project Management
Task Deadline Scheduling – Planning to Fail
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Very few Internal Due Dates / Deadlines
Schedule is used primarily as a Dependency Chart
Each task completes asap and next task is started
No schedule updating necessary
CCPM Schedule
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09/09
13/09
1/09
10/09
30/12
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CCPM values speed over working to fixed dates
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Summary
Very few internal due dates
Work carried out on an ‘as soon as possible’ basis
A ‘Relay Race’ (not a ‘Train Schedule’)
Early finishes reduce timescales & cost
Flexible structure for a variable environment
Few due dates means few / no schedule updates
CCPM Schedule
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Familiarity with technology
Known Unknowns
Unknown Unknowns
Fear of Failure
Confidence in Spec.
Estimate chopping
Confidence in own ability
Complexity of the taskFamiliarity with task
Specification Stability
Multi-tasking
Task-Level Contingency
Easy LifeInterruptions
How Much
Contingency?
38. www.criticalpoint.co.uk
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Familiarity with technology
Known Unknowns
Unknown Unknowns
Fear of Failure
Confidence in Spec.
Estimate chopping
Confidence in own ability
Complexity of the taskFamiliarity with task
Specification Stability
Multi-tasking
Task-Level Contingency
Easy LifeInterruptions
A Guess
47. www.criticalpoint.co.uk
Inflated ‘Localised’ Estimates which generate
Student Syndrome which results in
Parkinson’s Behaviours and
Long, Over-padded Schedules which encourages
Self-Protection leads to
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Unprotected From Delays and which have
Traditional Project Management
Task-level Contingency
Hidden, Unmanaged Contingency
Slow and Costly Projects which are still
Task-Level Contingency - Problem Cascade
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Shorter Task Durations & much reduced timeline
No space for Parkinson or Student Syndrome
But where is our contingency now?
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CCPM Project-Level Contingency
Remove task-level contingency
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Buffer protects the Project – not individual tasks
Provides the project Commit Date
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CCPM Project-Level Contingency
Aggregate Contingency
Project
Commit
Date
Project Buffer
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Critical Task over-runs are absorbed by the Buffer
The Project ’Schedule’ remains unchanged
The Project Commit Date is not affected
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CCPM Project-Level Contingency
Project Protection
Project
Commit
Date
Project Buffer
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57. www.criticalpoint.co.uk
If a Critical Task finishes early…
The time saved is ‘added back’ into our contingency
Buffer Status always shows the latest position
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CCPM Project-Level Contingency
Project Protection
Project
Commit
Date
Project Buffer
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Buffer
Status
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Project Contingency which results in
Student Syndrome which results in
Parkinson’s Behaviours and
Streamlined Schedules with
Aggregated Uncertainties are built into a
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Visible, Manageable Contingency which prevents
Protected From Delays
Fast and Efficient Projects which are
CCPM Project-Level Contingency
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Project-Level Contingency Cascade
60. www.criticalpoint.co.uk
Task H
Task F
Task I
Task B Task C Task D
Task G
Task A Task J
Task E
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Critical Path ignores resources
Critical Path based ONLY on task dependency & duration
Valid only in an environment without resource constraints
But what happens if we have resource contentions?
Traditional Project Management
Critical Path – A dangerous path to follow?
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Critical Path Problems
Post–CP Resource Levelling
Task E
Task H
Task F
Task I
Task B Task D
Task G
Task A Task J
Levelling resolves the issue… but increases timescales
And the vision of the Critical Path dominates
…and so tactical manoeuvres soon start...
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Task C
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Critical Path Problems
1- Multi-Tasking
Task H
Task B Task DTask A Task J
Task E
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Quality may be reduced
Predictability becomes less certain
Work becomes fragmented and control less easy
But because Multi-tasking takes longer…
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Critical Path Problems
2 - Overtime
Task H
Task B Task DTask A Task J
Task E
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…Extra hours need to be worked
Scheduling & Control becomes difficult
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Critical Path Problems
Scope Cut
Task H
Task B Task DTask A Task J
Task E
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Last resort to hit target date is a Scope Cut
May cause work in other areas
Further degrades quality
‘Project Meltdown’
ScopeCutScopeCut
ScopeCut
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Incorrect Dependency Path often with
Misleading Priorities which encourages a spiral of
Ignoring Resources Contentions leads to an
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Unstable Schedule
Traditional Project Management
Critical Path Problems
Fire-fighting tactics which leads to an
Unrealistic Completion Dates and
Out of Control Project with an
Critical Path Cascade
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Task H
Task F
Task I
Task B Task C Task D
Task G
Task A Task J
Task E
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CCPM Critical Chain
1. Build Dependency Network As Normal
Include Resource Requirements
- right at the start
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CCPM Critical Chain
2. CCPM Software - Resource Levelling
Task E
Task H
Task F
Task I
Task B Task C Task D
Task G
Task A Task J
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Resource-levelling the schedule…
Prevents over-allocation of resources
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CCPM Critical Chain
3. CCPM Software - Identify the Critical Chain
Task E
Task H
Task F
Task I
Task B Task C Task D
Task G
Task A Task J
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CCPM treats Resource Constraints as dependencies…
Priority sequence also goes to resource dependent tasks
A realistic critical sequence – The Critical Chain
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Critical Chain / Critical Path Comparison
Task E
Task H
Task F
Task I
Task B Task C Task D
Task G
Task A Task J
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Task H
Task F
Task I
Task B Task C Task D
Task G
Task A Task J
Task E
Critical Chain
Critical Path
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Irrespective of what you draw in the CP schedule, the real
situation will be driven by the realities of resource constraints
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Critical Chain / Critical Path Comparison
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Task H
Task F
Task I
Task B Task C Task D
Task G
Task A Task J
Task E
Critical Chain
Critical Path
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If there are no resource clashes, the Critical Chain will be
the same as the Critical Path
Task H
Task F
Task I
Task B Task C Task D
Task G
Task A Task J
Task E
75. www.criticalpoint.co.uk
Correct Dependency Path with
Realistic Priorities which provides a
Including Resources Contentions leads to a
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Stable Schedule
Realistic Project Duration and
Project Under Control with a
CCPM Critical Chain
Critical Chain Cascade
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3d
Task 1: 9 days Task 2: 9 days Task 3: 9 days
Time
3d 3d3d 3d 3d 3d 3d 3d
Without Multi-tasking:
With Multi-tasking:
27 Days
31 Days
• Speed – Everything is delayed
• Quality – Likely to be less
• Productivity - Reduced
Day 24
Day 9
• Nothing gets completed until day 24.
Task 1: + 15 days late(+165%)
Task 2: + 8 days late (+47%)
Task 3: + 2 days late (+22%)
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Traditional Project Management Multi-tasking:
The Illusion of being productive
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CriticalPointConsulting
Multi-tasking; The SINGLE best way…
…to screw up TWO JOBS.
It slows everything down
It reduces quality
It wastes time and costs more
It is bad for morale
It complicates scheduling & control
It removes planning predictability
It causes delivery delays
Summary
Traditional Project Management Multi-tasking:
The Illusion of being productive
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Task 1: 9 days Task 2: 9 days Task 3: 9 days
Time
Without Multi-tasking:
27 Days
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CCPM Single Tasking
The reality of being productive
Return to effective and efficient working
82. www.criticalpoint.co.uk
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‘Good’ Multi-Tasking
Non-Project / background, no dependencies or deadlines.
Training/education. QA tasks. Flexi-time.
‘Bad’ Multi-Tasking
‘Double-booked’ on overlapping tasks.
Covering Additional / Support roles.
‘Ugly’ Multi-Tasking
Personnel allocated simultaneous project tasks.
Endemic, cultural.
CCPM Single Tasking
Can Multi-tasking be removed?
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Use of ‘Percentage Complete’:
Report to expectation – no bad news to give
Can’t be challenged – only task owner knows
Often simply aligned with time used
Optimism that time can be pulled back
Infrequent reporting gives psychological cushion
Reality is often ignored - An easy place to hide
Traditional Project Management
Progress Measurement
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Measurements -
Percentage Complete, Time / money used / left
Position against base line, Milestones achieved…
What do they tell us?
How much time/money used - Retrospective
What do they tell us about the future?
Very little…
Traditional Project Management
Progress Measurement
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What is the Only Question PM’s get asked?
87. www.criticalpoint.co.uk
CriticalPointConsulting
‘Are you on target?’
What do we really need to know?
How exposed are we?
Have we got enough safety in hand?
Is there a trend?
Is it upward or downward?
Should we be taking any action?
Where should we be taking action?
Traditional Project Management
Progress Measurement
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Often not a true / realistic picture
Real Status / safety contingency is hidden
False sense of schedule security
Leads to persisting ‘90% complete’ / late-emerging issues
Can cause major / incorrect re-scheduling
Doesn’t answer the Big Question
Summary
Traditional Project Management
Progress Measurement
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CCPM Progress Measurement
Seeing into the Future
Immediate report from task D that an extra 5 days will be required
This report immediately shows in Buffer Usage
Provides ‘view ahead’ notification of future position
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Buffer
Used
+3
+3 +5
+3 +3
Buffer
Remaining
DCB
A E F
+5
Early Report
100. www.criticalpoint.co.uk
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Critical Chain Project Management
The Five Elements of Success
Multi-tasking
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CCPM
Schedule
Project-Level
Contingency
Critical Chain
Single-tasking
Good Measures
Visible Control
So, have we fixed all of the problems?
Yes – but not just these; CCPM fixes a bigger problem and the
reason that past improvements have not succeeded
113. www.criticalpoint.co.uk
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3mths
Project 1: 9mths Project 2: 9mths Project3: 9mths
3mths 3mths3mths 3mths 3mths 3mths 3mths 3mths
Project Fragmentation:
27 mths
30 mths
mth 23
mth 9
If projects have to time-slice,
Fragmentation will delay all projects
Driven by edict for all projects to be shown as started
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Overloaded Programme
1. Project Time-Slicing
114. www.criticalpoint.co.uk
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3mths
Project 1: 9 mths Project 2: 9mths Project3: 9mths
3mths 3mths3mths 3mths 3mths 3mths 3mths 3mths
27 mths
30 mths
9 mths
21 mths
Longer elapsed time gives more exposure time for changes
Changes generate more work and extend projects further
Meanwhile unfinished work gets ‘rusty’
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Overloaded Programme
1. Project Time-Slicing
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An Overloaded system causes:
Fighting over Insufficient Resources
Volatile / Unworkable Schedules
Fuels Multi-tasking
Delays
Loss of Completion Predictability
Summary
Traditional Project Management
Overloaded Programme
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Project 1
Project 2
Project 3
Overloaded Programme
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Project 4
Project 5
Project 6
Reality at Working LevelExterior View
. . . .?
. . . .?
. .?
. .?
. . .?
Belief that ‘More Work In = More Work Out’
Lack of Real Priorities (‘It’s all Top Priority!’)
Lack of regime to prevent overloading
125. www.criticalpoint.co.uk
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Forcing work in over capacity slows throughput
Working within capacity speeds up throughput
Solution:
Convince management of the above realities
Stop feeding in more than system can manage
CCPM in Multi-Project Environment:
Maximising Throughput
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Problem 1: ‘More Work In = More Work Out’
126. www.criticalpoint.co.uk
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Not having clear prioritisation slows throughput
Having priorities speeds up throughput
Solution:
Priorities are mandatory
‘It’s all Top Priority!’ is banned
All decisions start with Priorities
Priorities need to be business-based
CCPM in Multi-Project Environment:
Maximising Throughput
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Problem 2: Lack of Priorities
127. www.criticalpoint.co.uk
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No loading rules = No control = Overloading
Solution:
Start new projects only when capacity allows
‘Stagger’ new projects starts to avoid major issues
CCPM in Multi-Project Environment:
Maximising Throughput
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Problem 3: Lack of regime to prevent overloading
141. www.criticalpoint.co.uk
High Tech
3M
Advasense Technologies
Agilent Technologie
AMCC
AMD
Avaya
Avitronics
Barco
Bell Canada
BT Radianz
Computer Sciences Corp
Cray, Inc.
ECI Telecom Ltd.
Eclozion Informatique
Ericsson
Estonian Telephone
Fairchild Semiconductor
Graftech
Hewlett Packard
Hitachi Computer Products
Honeywell
IBM
Ismeca Europe Semiconductor
ITT Canon
L-3 Communication Systems
LSI Logic
Lucent Technologies
Marvell
High Tech /
Medtronic, Inc.
Microsoft
Motorola
Numonyx
Philips Semiconductors
Pioneer
Qualcomm
RSA Security
SanDisk
Sapient
Seagate Technology LLC
Sony Ericsson
Spirent Communications
Sprint
Sun Microsystems
Symbian
Tadiran Spectralink
Tektronix
TT Technologies
Tundra Semiconductor
Workscape
Xerox Corporation
Business Education
Ashridge Management College
Project Management Institute
London Business School
+ Over 160 Universities
Life Sciences
Abbott Labs
Adirondack Surgery
AHIS-St. Vincent Health
AMGEN
Andover Healthcare Inc.
Arterain Medical
Baxter
Boston Scientific
Central Dupage Health
Bovis Pharmaceuticals
Converge Medical Inc.
Cytori Therapeutics, Inc.
Edwards Lifescience
Ethicon
Gambro Healthcare
GlaxoSmithKline
Johnson & Johnson
Medtronic
Merck Medco Managed Care
Pfizer
Pharmacia
Roche Diagnostics
Spectranetics
Tenet Health Care
Tyco Healthcare
United Behavioral Health
Vascore Medical
Ventana
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Companies Using CCPM - 1
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Aerospace and Defense
Aerojet Corporation
Air Force Institute of Tech.
BAE Systems
The Boeing Company
General Dynamics
Halliburton
ITT Space Systems
Lockheed
NASA
Northrop Grumman
Portsmouth Naval Shipyard
Puget Sound Naval Shipyard
Raytheon
SAAB Avionics
US Air Force
Consumer Products
Coca-Cola
Colgate Palmolive
Del Monte Foods
Fonterra
Gillette
Heineken
IKEA
Kraft Foods
McKee Foods
Nike
Philip Morris
Industrial
ABB
Accoat
Advanced Energy Technology
Alcan
Alfa Lava
American Rubber Products
Applied Plasmonics
AREVA
Atomic Energy of Canada .
Balfour Beatty
Bimba Manufacturing
Bosal
Bosch Rexroth Ltda.
Brice Manufacturing
BVR Technologies Company
C.F. Roark Welding.
Callaway Golf
Celite Corporation s
Conoco
Corning Cable Systems
Cueros Industrializados
DaimlerChrysler UK
Danfoss
Delta Faucet Company
Detroit Diesel Reman-West
DuPont
Eastman Kodak Company
Industrial/
ExxonMobil Chemical
Fisher Controls
Fluid Brasil Sistemas
Fluke Corporation
Fuel Cell Energy
GE Industrial Systems
Hach
Honda
ITT Corporation
Kawasaki Heavy Industries,
M&M Precision Systems
Marshall Industries
Merichem Chemicals
Milwaukee Forge
Rail care
Raychem
Rolls Royce
Siemens
Sylvania
Unilever
Tata
UPC Technology
Volvo
Source:TOC International, Gatlinburg, TN.
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Companies Using CCPM - 2
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Professional Recognition
APM Body of Knowledge.
"An alternative to creating networks based on activity dependencies is to use a
technique called critical chain. This method considers the availability of resources
and the interdependencies between resources.“ - APM Body of Knowledge 6th edition (2012) p 155
Association for Project Management
PMI Body of Knowledge
“Critical chain is a schedule network analysis technique that modifies the project
schedule to account for limited resources. Initially, the project schedule network
diagram is built using duration estimates with required dependencies and defined
constraints as inputs. The critical path is then calculated. After the critical path is
identified, resource availability is entered and the resource-limited schedule result is
determined. The resulting schedule often has an altered critical path.”
PMI BoK 4th edition. Ch 6 Time Management p.155
Project Management Institute
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Professional Recognition
Conference Presentation
Critical Chain Project Management using Microsoft Project and Prochain:
Implementing Project Portfolio Management.
The Theory of Constraints International Certification Organization (TOCICO) is a global
not-for-profit certification organization for TOC practitioners, consultants and
academics to develop and administer certification standards, and facilitate the
exchange of latest developments. TOCICO has run an international conference for the
past 11 years.
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The Theory of Constraints & CCPM - 30yrs in the making:
The work and books of Eli Goldratt
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Manufacturing, Accounting, Production
The Goal, The Race, The Haystack Syndrome
The Thinking Process
The Jonah Program, The Choice
Distribution, Marketing, Management
It’s Not Luck
Project Management
Critical Chain
TOC & Technology
Necessary But Not Sufficient
TOC & Business Strategy
Viable Vision
Retail
Isn’t It Obvious?
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147. www.criticalpoint.co.uk
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Development:
Result of many years of continuous development
Based on Theory of Constraints (TOC) 1980’s – 1990’s
Needed software to be truly viable
Software too slow to develop
Software now mature & robust (see ProChain.com)
Key Publications by Eliyahu Goldratt:
1984 'The Goal' – TOC in manufacturing
1997 ‘Critical Chain’ - Applying TOC to project management
CCPM Potted History
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‘Critical Chain Project Management presents us with an opportunity to plan
projects well for maybe the very first time. We should make sure that we
break with our old traditions of how we have done things in the past, and re-
plan our projects from scratch.
But planning is only half the story. The real power of CCPM comes from the
control afforded during the execution or deployment of the job. Buffer status
and buffer management allows us unprecedented feedback on the progress
of the project and where to focus attention and where not.
And maybe this is the most important factor in the whole approach.
We have a totally new and systemic way to manage projects. We should
make the very most of this opportunity.’
Dr. Kelvin Youngman
Last Word
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Over 15 years experience of implementing CCPM
in
Multiple companies / Multiple industries
info@criticalpoint.co.uk
www.criticalpoint.co.uk
UK: 01892 506881 | Intl: +44 1892 506881
Critical Point Consulting
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