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LSSC 2012

Who moved my risk?

 Mike Burrows (@asplake)
           mike@djaa.com




                               Who	
  Moved	
  my	
  Risk?
  http://positiveincline.com




                                                LSSC	
  12	
  
                                                          	
  
“Risk	
  means	
  that	
  not	
  everything	
  that
                                                  	
  
         can	
  happen	
  will	
  happen”	
  
                                 Elroy	
  Dimson	
  




                                                         Who	
  Moved	
  my	
  Risk?
                                                                          LSSC	
  12	
  
                                                                                    	
  
Not	
  so	
  long	
  ago,	
  in	
  two	
  
    universes	
  not	
  so	
  far	
  away…       	
  
                                            14/4



1         Disk Space!               Board Report!

             29/3                   MJB     29/3




                                                        Who	
  Moved	
  my	
  Risk?
           Increase
                                        Disk
2          space on
          ln4p516c
                                      Monitoring




                                                                         LSSC	
  12
     ST      31/1   14/2            AB      23/1




                                                                                   	
  
                                                                                   	
  
Risks	
  specific	
  to	
  each	
  piece	
  of	
  work?	
  

                                           14/4



1            Disk Space!            Board Report!

                29/3                MJB    29/3




                                                             Who	
  Moved	
  my	
  Risk?
              Increase
                                       Disk
2             space on
             ln4p516c
                                     Monitoring




                                                                              LSSC	
  12
        ST      31/1   14/2        AB     23/1




                                                                                        	
  
                                                                                        	
  
No	
  change	
  in	
  a	
  week…     	
  
How	
  does	
  each	
  piece	
  of	
  work	
  look	
  now?	
  
                                            14/4



   1            Disk Space!          Board Report!

                   29/3               MJB   29/3




                                                                 Who	
  Moved	
  my	
  Risk?
                 Increase
                                         Disk
   2             space on
                ln4p516c
                                       Monitoring




                                                                                  LSSC	
  12
           ST      31/1   14/2       AB     23/1




                                                                                            	
  
                                                                                            	
  
Who	
  moved	
  my	
  risk?          	
  
                            –	
  The	
  risk	
  in	
  the	
  work	
  

n    Inherent,	
  specific	
  

n    ExpectaFons	
  

      Time	
  




                                                                        Who	
  Moved	
  my	
  Risk?
n 




                                                                                         LSSC	
  12	
  
                                                                                                   	
  
Which	
  feels	
  the	
  more	
  comfortable?	
  

                                    14/4



1          Disk Space!        Board Report!

              29/3            MJB   29/3




                                                    Who	
  Moved	
  my	
  Risk?
            Increase
                                 Disk
2           space on
           ln4p516c
                               Monitoring




                                                                     LSSC	
  12
      ST      31/1   14/2     AB    23/1




                                                                               	
  
                                                                               	
  
Where	
  is	
  the	
  beHer	
  capability?	
  

                                        14/4



1           Disk Space!          Board Report!

               29/3              MJB    29/3




                                                     Who	
  Moved	
  my	
  Risk?
             Increase
                                     Disk
2            space on
            ln4p516c
                                   Monitoring




                                                                      LSSC	
  12
       ST      31/1   14/        AB    23/1
                       2




                                                                                	
  
                                                                                	
  
Which	
  team	
  has	
  the	
  beHer	
  capability?	
  



 A




                                                          Who	
  Moved	
  my	
  Risk?
 B



                                                                           LSSC	
  12	
  
                                                                                     	
  
Which	
  team	
  has	
  the	
  beHer	
  capability?	
  



 X




                                                          Who	
  Moved	
  my	
  Risk?
 Y



                                                                           LSSC	
  12	
  
                                                                                     	
  
Which	
  team	
  has	
  the	
  beHer	
  capability?	
  



 X




                                                          Who	
  Moved	
  my	
  Risk?
       1
 Y     2




                                                                           LSSC	
  12	
  
                                                                                     	
  
The	
  ease	
  with	
  which	
  we	
  can	
  make	
  variety	
  
 explicit	
  is	
  one	
  of	
  Kanban’s	
  killer	
  features
                                                             	
  


    X
    Y




                                                                    Who	
  Moved	
  my	
  Risk?
           1
    Y      2




                                                                                     LSSC	
  12	
  
                                                                                               	
  
n     Embrace	
  change	
  

	
  




                                                                                  Who	
  Moved	
  my	
  Risk?
	
  




                                                                                                   LSSC	
  12
                      Beck,	
  2000,	
  Extreme	
  Programming	
  Explained	
  




                                                                                                             	
  
                                                                                                             	
  
n     Embrace	
  change	
  

n     Embrace	
  variability	
  




                                                                                                Who	
  Moved	
  my	
  Risk?
	
  




                                                                                                                 LSSC	
  12
                 (paraphrasing	
  with	
  permission)	
  Reinertsen,	
  1997	
  &	
  2009	
  




                                                                                                                           	
  
                                                                                                                           	
  
n    Embrace	
  change	
  

n    Embrace	
  variability	
  




                                   Who	
  Moved	
  my	
  Risk?
n    Embrace	
  variety	
  




                                                    LSSC	
  12	
  
                                                              	
  
Embrace	
  variety:	
  visualise	
  it,	
  design	
  for	
  it
                                                             	
  


                Standard                Expedite
                Respect limits         Production first!

           IN   dd/mm - dd/mm     IN dd/mm - dd/mm


                                           dd/mm




                                                                    Who	
  Moved	
  my	
  Risk?
                Intangible             Fixed Date
              Keep in the mix,       As per Standard;
            prepare to give way     Expedite if at risk
           IN   dd/mm - dd/mm     IN    dd/mm - dd/mm




                                                                                     LSSC	
  12
                Rightmost, Topmost




                                                                                               	
  
                                                                                               	
  
 
This	
  designed-­‐in	
  resilience	
  is	
  a	
  triple	
  win	
  
                            	
  




                                                                      Who	
  Moved	
  my	
  Risk?
                                                                                       LSSC	
  12
      EffecFve	
   n  Economic	
   n  Humane	
  




                                                                                                 	
  
                                                                                                 	
  
Who	
  moved	
  my	
  risk?      	
  
                        –	
  The	
  risk	
  in	
  the	
  system	
  


n    Capability	
  

n    Variety	
  

      Resilience	
  




                                                                      Who	
  Moved	
  my	
  Risk?
n 




                                                                                       LSSC	
  12
      EffecFve	
   n  Economic	
   n  Humane	
  




                                                                                                 	
  
                                                                                                 	
  
The	
  grim	
  economics	
  of
                                    	
  
     backlog-­‐driven	
  development     	
  




                                                       Who	
  Moved	
  my	
  Risk?
0%         20%     40%          60%   80%       100%




                                                                        LSSC	
  12
                     60:40 Pareto




                                                                                  	
  
                                                                                  	
  
The	
  grim	
  economics	
  of
                                    	
  
     backlog-­‐driven	
  development     	
  




                                                       Who	
  Moved	
  my	
  Risk?
0%           25%        50%               75%   100%
                       Cumulative Value




                                                                        LSSC	
  12	
  
                                                                                  	
  
The	
  grim	
  economics	
  of
                                       	
  
        backlog-­‐driven	
  development     	
  

120%


100%


80%


60%




                                                                               Who	
  Moved	
  my	
  Risk?
40%


20%


 0%
       0%        25%                      50%                     75%   100%




                                                                                                LSSC	
  12
                       Cumulative Value         Cumulative Cost




                                                                                                          	
  
                                                                                                          	
  
The	
  grim	
  economics	
  of
                                       	
  
        backlog-­‐driven	
  development     	
  

120%


100%


80%


60%




                                                                   Who	
  Moved	
  my	
  Risk?
40%


20%


 0%
       0%        25%                50%               75%   100%




                                                                                    LSSC	
  12
                 Cumulative Value   Cumulative Cost   ROI




                                                                                              	
  
                                                                                              	
  
Who	
  Moved	
  my	
  Risk?	
  
                 LSSC	
  12	
  
n     Management	
  !=	
  Grooming	
  

n     Backlog	
  !=	
  Goldmine	
  




                                          Who	
  Moved	
  my	
  Risk?
	
  




                                                           LSSC	
  12	
  
                                                                     	
  
Step	
  outside	
  the	
  system	
  

 The                         The
Known          The         Imagined             The
             Unknown                        Unthinkable

  Noise




   The                  The                    The




                                                          Who	
  Moved	
  my	
  Risk?
 Important              Work                  Actual




               The                The




                                                                           LSSC	
  12
             Possible          Impossible




                                                                                     	
  
                                                                                     	
  
Thinking	
  the	
  unthinkable,	
  
                   cross-­‐funcFonally   	
  




                                                                                                              Who	
  Moved	
  my	
  Risk?
08:00 08:30 09:00 09:30 10:00 10:30 11:00 11:30 12:00 12:30 13:00 13:30 14:00 14:30 15:00 15:30 16:00 16:30




                                                                                                                               LSSC	
  12	
  
                                                                                                                                         	
  
Step	
  outside	
  the	
  system	
  

 The                         The
Known          The         Imagined             The
             Unknown                        Unthinkable

  Noise




   The                  The                    The




                                                          Who	
  Moved	
  my	
  Risk?
 Important              Work                  Actual




               The                The




                                                                           LSSC	
  12
             Possible          Impossible




                                                                                     	
  
                                                                                     	
  
Shared Possibility




Mutual Understanding




                       Who	
  Moved	
  my	
  Risk?
   Commitments


       Work




                                        LSSC	
  12	
  
                                                  	
  
n     Reduce	
  WIP	
  &	
  reduce	
  risk	
  
                  Shared Possibility




n     Shrink	
  backlogs	
  &	
  grow	
  
                 Mutual Understanding
       mutual	
  understanding	
  




                                                  Who	
  Moved	
  my	
  Risk?
                    Commitments

	
                      Work




                                                                   LSSC	
  12	
  
                                                                             	
  
n    The	
  risk	
  in	
  the	
  work	
  
n    The	
  risk	
  in	
  the	
  system	
  
n    Stepping	
  outside	
  the	
  system	
  




                                                 Who	
  Moved	
  my	
  Risk?
                                                                  LSSC	
  12	
  
                                                                            	
  
Q:	
  Who	
  moved	
  my	
  risk?	
  
A:	
  We	
  did!	
  
	
  
Are	
  we	
  making	
  it	
  count?	
  




                                          Who	
  Moved	
  my	
  Risk?
                                                           LSSC	
  12	
  
                                                                     	
  
Thank you.

Questions?




                                     Who	
  Moved	
  my	
  Risk?
       Mike Burrows (@asplake)




                                                      LSSC	
  12
                 mike@djaa.com
        http://positiveincline.com




                                                                	
  
                                                                	
  

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Who moved my risk? (LSSC12 talk)

  • 1. LSSC 2012 Who moved my risk? Mike Burrows (@asplake) mike@djaa.com Who  Moved  my  Risk? http://positiveincline.com LSSC  12    
  • 2. “Risk  means  that  not  everything  that   can  happen  will  happen”   Elroy  Dimson   Who  Moved  my  Risk? LSSC  12    
  • 3. Not  so  long  ago,  in  two   universes  not  so  far  away…   14/4 1 Disk Space! Board Report! 29/3 MJB 29/3 Who  Moved  my  Risk? Increase Disk 2 space on ln4p516c Monitoring LSSC  12 ST 31/1 14/2 AB 23/1    
  • 4. Risks  specific  to  each  piece  of  work?   14/4 1 Disk Space! Board Report! 29/3 MJB 29/3 Who  Moved  my  Risk? Increase Disk 2 space on ln4p516c Monitoring LSSC  12 ST 31/1 14/2 AB 23/1    
  • 5. No  change  in  a  week…   How  does  each  piece  of  work  look  now?   14/4 1 Disk Space! Board Report! 29/3 MJB 29/3 Who  Moved  my  Risk? Increase Disk 2 space on ln4p516c Monitoring LSSC  12 ST 31/1 14/2 AB 23/1    
  • 6. Who  moved  my  risk?   –  The  risk  in  the  work   n  Inherent,  specific   n  ExpectaFons   Time   Who  Moved  my  Risk? n  LSSC  12    
  • 7. Which  feels  the  more  comfortable?   14/4 1 Disk Space! Board Report! 29/3 MJB 29/3 Who  Moved  my  Risk? Increase Disk 2 space on ln4p516c Monitoring LSSC  12 ST 31/1 14/2 AB 23/1    
  • 8. Where  is  the  beHer  capability?   14/4 1 Disk Space! Board Report! 29/3 MJB 29/3 Who  Moved  my  Risk? Increase Disk 2 space on ln4p516c Monitoring LSSC  12 ST 31/1 14/ AB 23/1 2    
  • 9. Which  team  has  the  beHer  capability?   A Who  Moved  my  Risk? B LSSC  12    
  • 10. Which  team  has  the  beHer  capability?   X Who  Moved  my  Risk? Y LSSC  12    
  • 11. Which  team  has  the  beHer  capability?   X Who  Moved  my  Risk? 1 Y 2 LSSC  12    
  • 12. The  ease  with  which  we  can  make  variety   explicit  is  one  of  Kanban’s  killer  features   X Y Who  Moved  my  Risk? 1 Y 2 LSSC  12    
  • 13. n  Embrace  change     Who  Moved  my  Risk?   LSSC  12 Beck,  2000,  Extreme  Programming  Explained      
  • 14. n  Embrace  change   n  Embrace  variability   Who  Moved  my  Risk?   LSSC  12 (paraphrasing  with  permission)  Reinertsen,  1997  &  2009      
  • 15. n  Embrace  change   n  Embrace  variability   Who  Moved  my  Risk? n  Embrace  variety   LSSC  12    
  • 16. Embrace  variety:  visualise  it,  design  for  it   Standard Expedite Respect limits Production first! IN dd/mm - dd/mm IN dd/mm - dd/mm dd/mm Who  Moved  my  Risk? Intangible Fixed Date Keep in the mix, As per Standard; prepare to give way Expedite if at risk IN dd/mm - dd/mm IN dd/mm - dd/mm LSSC  12 Rightmost, Topmost    
  • 17.   This  designed-­‐in  resilience  is  a  triple  win     Who  Moved  my  Risk? LSSC  12 EffecFve   n  Economic   n  Humane      
  • 18. Who  moved  my  risk?   –  The  risk  in  the  system   n  Capability   n  Variety   Resilience   Who  Moved  my  Risk? n  LSSC  12 EffecFve   n  Economic   n  Humane      
  • 19. The  grim  economics  of   backlog-­‐driven  development   Who  Moved  my  Risk? 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% LSSC  12 60:40 Pareto    
  • 20. The  grim  economics  of   backlog-­‐driven  development   Who  Moved  my  Risk? 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Cumulative Value LSSC  12    
  • 21. The  grim  economics  of   backlog-­‐driven  development   120% 100% 80% 60% Who  Moved  my  Risk? 40% 20% 0% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% LSSC  12 Cumulative Value Cumulative Cost    
  • 22. The  grim  economics  of   backlog-­‐driven  development   120% 100% 80% 60% Who  Moved  my  Risk? 40% 20% 0% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% LSSC  12 Cumulative Value Cumulative Cost ROI    
  • 23. Who  Moved  my  Risk?   LSSC  12  
  • 24. n  Management  !=  Grooming   n  Backlog  !=  Goldmine   Who  Moved  my  Risk?   LSSC  12    
  • 25. Step  outside  the  system   The The Known The Imagined The Unknown Unthinkable Noise The The The Who  Moved  my  Risk? Important Work Actual The The LSSC  12 Possible Impossible    
  • 26. Thinking  the  unthinkable,   cross-­‐funcFonally   Who  Moved  my  Risk? 08:00 08:30 09:00 09:30 10:00 10:30 11:00 11:30 12:00 12:30 13:00 13:30 14:00 14:30 15:00 15:30 16:00 16:30 LSSC  12    
  • 27. Step  outside  the  system   The The Known The Imagined The Unknown Unthinkable Noise The The The Who  Moved  my  Risk? Important Work Actual The The LSSC  12 Possible Impossible    
  • 28. Shared Possibility Mutual Understanding Who  Moved  my  Risk? Commitments Work LSSC  12    
  • 29. n  Reduce  WIP  &  reduce  risk   Shared Possibility n  Shrink  backlogs  &  grow   Mutual Understanding mutual  understanding   Who  Moved  my  Risk? Commitments   Work LSSC  12    
  • 30. n  The  risk  in  the  work   n  The  risk  in  the  system   n  Stepping  outside  the  system   Who  Moved  my  Risk? LSSC  12    
  • 31. Q:  Who  moved  my  risk?   A:  We  did!     Are  we  making  it  count?   Who  Moved  my  Risk? LSSC  12    
  • 32. Thank you. Questions? Who  Moved  my  Risk? Mike Burrows (@asplake) LSSC  12 mike@djaa.com http://positiveincline.com