The document discusses competitive intelligence and provides guidance on developing an effective competitive intelligence program. It covers topics such as: - The importance of minimizing threats from competitors and maximizing market opportunities. - Following a disciplined process of information collection, analysis, and recommendations. - Conducting benchmarking, SWOT analysis, and growth vector analysis to evaluate competitors. - Developing key intelligence topics to guide strategic decision making. - Implementing a competitive intelligence program can help improve planning, decision making, and strategy execution.

1. Business, Market & Competitive Intelligence See Clearly, Think Ahead, Break Through Arik R. Johnson CVTC Daybreak Breakfast Session CEO & Managing Director, Aurora WDC Eau Claire, Wisconsin Arik.Johnson@AuroraWDC.com Wednesday 5 March 2008

7. Traditional CI Follows a Disciplined Process for Information Collection and Analysis Deliver, Inform & Recommend Planning & Direction Secondary Research Analysis & Production Primary Research Tactical Users & Strategic Decision Makers Needs The Traditional CI Cycle

8. Competitors, Customers & Technologies Are Complex Interdependencies CI is About Learning to See Clearly through Market Illusions

11. Impacts on Planning & Execution Your Company’s Plans and Execution Vision and Grand Strategy Strategic Plans Market Success Operational Projects and Programs Tactical Execution Other (More-or-Less) “Uncontrollables” Competitors’ Plans and Actions New Forms of Competition X Y Z P Q R A B C Indirect Competitors Direct Competitors Government and Regulatory The Economy Technology Market Trends Industry Rationalization Other Unknowns

12. The Product Life Cycle

13. Strategic & Tactical Realms of Competitive Advantage

14. CI is a Critical Element in Strategy COMMERCIAL MARKET STRUCTURE & RESOURCES Strategic Position Strategic Position Competitive Position Market Attractiveness Scope & Context Strategic Issues Insight Stakeholder Score Card Financial Position Growth Economic Profitability Critical Success Factors & Key Performance Indicators Performance Monitoring & Incentive Compensation Organizational Design Projects & Resources CAPITAL MARKET MANAGED PERFORMANCE Chosen Strategy Scenarios & Options Creativity Strategy Execution Strategy Formulation

15. Porter’s Five Forces Model

18. Analysis is Key The Difference Between Data and Intelligence “ The competitor would make a good acquisition candidate. Its lean & mean structure would fit well with our current operations.” Intelligence: The insight that will allow you to make an informed decision “ After gathering more operational information and running a side-by-side profit & loss analysis, it appears the competitor has become highly efficient. It exceeds industry standards and has become a best-in-class facility.” Analysis: Distilled information “ Based on the D&B and the salesperson’s report, it appears the competitor has lost business.” Information: A pooling of these bits of facts, observations and rumors 2001: “The D&B report told us that the competitors plant had 100 employees.” 2004: “One of our salespeople just passed by the competitor’s plant and spotted only 30 cars in the lot.” Data: Scattered bits and pieces of facts, observations and rumors

19. Two Fundamental Competitive Analysis Examples SWOT Analysis Core Competence

22. Tactical CI Project Example: Cost Analysis

23. Level of CI Involvement in M&A Stage ID Evaluate Due Consum- Criteria Targets Analyze Diligence Recommend Negotiation mation Integration Level of CI Involvement High Low Intelligence Research Business Units Finance Technical Assessment Legal Executives M&A Specialists Transition Team Logistics HR

30. Source Extraction & Pattern Recognition Aggregate content, tag & categorize Hypertext links to similar content Personalization from forms/questionnaires geodemographic profiling Searching for information E-mailing information to relevant recipients Reformatting for multi- channel delivery, e.g. PDF to XML Answering customer inquiries via a help desk Manual Processes Process Automation Aggregation Automatic Categorization Hyperlinking Profiling Personalization Collaboration Delivery Retrieval Routing Alerting Integration Through Understanding Information Theory and Bayesian Inference Notes News Feeds Email Internet Database Files Document Management XML Audio/ Media

32. The Duality Continuum of Intelligence Both Decisive & Incisive Sensing Incisive Scanning for Trends, there is no “Decision” to be made Recognize “Pattern Vector” History Framework for Interpretation Implications for the Reader Bottom-Up Exposition Driven by Trends Outcome is Observation Emergent & Theoretical Decisive Frame of Reference is the Decision, Less Trend-Dependent Framework for Current Analysis Compares Options & Outcomes Recommendations and Trust Top-Down Imposition Driven by Issues Decision & Action vs. ‘Nariyuki’ Factual & Hypothetical

35. Different Missions, Different Approaches Specialist Slower Production Less Output, More Analytical Agenda Driven by Contact Network Lots of Subject Matter Knowledge Seeks Explanation of the Subject Investigative Very Slow, Curious, Historical Little Output, Highly Analytical Questions Official Positions, Listens to Nonspokesmen Operates Outside Routine Agenda of the Publisher Generalist In a Hurry Lots of Output, Less Analytical Agenda Driven by the Publisher Little Knowledge of Subject Matter Seeks Volume of Public Interest

36. Consumers “Hire” Products to Do “Jobs” for Them Concentrate Less on What Customers “Want” and More on What Customers “Need”

37. Disruptive Innovation Theory Sustaining Innovations Better Products Brought to Established Markets Low-End Disruptions Target Overshot Customers with a Lower Cost Business Model New-Market Disruption Compete Against Nonconsumption Difference Performance Measure Time Nonconsumers or Nonconsuming Contexts Performance

38. Disruptive Technology

40. RPV Theory: Building Capabilities Processes Ways to Turn Resources into Products/Services Hiring/Training Product Dev. Manufacturing Budgeting Research Values Prioritization Criteria for Decision-Making Cost Structure Income Statement Customer Demand Opp. Size Ethics Resources Assets the Firm can Buy or Sell, Build or Destroy People Technology Products Equipment Cash/Brand/Distr.

42. Process of Predicting Industry Change Signals of Change Strategic Choices Influencing Success Likely Outcome of Competitive Battles

43. Assessment Development Pilot Test Evaluation Implementation MONTHS 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 15 18 21

51. The CI Think Tank Model TASKING > SENSING > INTERPRETATION