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PURPOSE OF FORUM
• Observe First Anniversary of Arangkada, launched December
  13, 2010
• Report on JFC Arangkada activities
• Release First Assessment of
  Arangkada
  Recommendations
• Assemble public and private
  sector Arangkada partners
  to energize our advocacy for
  growth and jobs.

                                      Arangkada Press Launch with DTI

                      www.arangkadaphilippines.com
INTERACTIVE FORUM

• Send us your questions and comments:
   By email, arangkadaph@gmail.com
   By handwritten note (in folder)
       -identify yourself (optional)
   By Twitter, @ArangkadaPH
   By Facebook, www.facebook.com/arangkadaphilippines
• If we can’t answer today, we will after the
  Forum

                   www.arangkadaphilippines.com
FORUM PROGRAM

Part 1: Growing Too Slow
 • With former Secretary Roberto de Ocampo

Part 2: Becoming More Competitive
 • With National Competitiveness Council Private Sector Co-Chair Guillermo Luz

Part 3: Seven Big Winner Sectors
 • With experts moderated by Mr. David Celdran

Part 3: Infrastructure
 • With experts moderated by Ms. Maria Ressa

Part 4: General Business Environment
 • With experts moderated by Mr. Coco Alcuaz

Address by President Aquino and Open Forum

                   www.arangkadaphilippines.com
ARANGKADA
                                     ACTIVITIES
• Nearly 70 advocacy dialogue meetings with senior government
  officials
• Website – www.arangkadaphilippines.com (over 15,000 hits in
  7 months) from 100 countries
• Seven Big Winner Sectors Workshop March 30 and Arangkada
  Forum January 26
• Partnership with National Competitiveness Council
• Cooperation with Philippine Business Groups – Legislative
  Priorities, Memo to President June 30, Letters re Holidays, etc.
• First annual Arangkada Anniversary Assessment


                     www.arangkadaphilippines.com
PART 1: GROWING
                                                                  TOO SLOW
      Real GDP yoy growth rates, ASEAN-6, quarterly, 1q2009-3q2011
                                       Indonesia                   Vietnam              Malaysia
      25%                              Philippines                 Thailand             Singapore
      20%

      15%

      10%

       5%
                                                                                                               PH
       0%

      -5%

     -10%
                1Q-09      2Q-09       3Q-09       4Q-09   1Q-10    2Q-10   3Q-10   4Q-10   1Q-11   2Q-11   3Q-11
Sources: Respective national statistics offices




                                                  www.arangkadaphilippines.com
PART 1: GROWING TOO
                                          SLOW

                              FDI, Bn, US$

                 Singapore       Indonesia      Vietnam
    45           Malaysia        Thailand       Philippines
    40
    35
    30
    25
    20
    15
    10
     5
                                                              PH
     0
    -5
   -10



Source: UNCTAD



                       www.arangkadaphilippines.com
PART 2: BECOMING MORE
                                                       COMPETITIVE


         Survey Title           Year     RP         Previous RP    ASEAN-6      Trend
                                       ranking        ranking      position
Best Countries for Business     2010   91 of 128      84 of 127     5 of 6    Deteriorated
Failed States Index             2011   51 of 177      53 of 177     6 of 6     Improved
Index of Economic Freedom       2011   107 of 179    115 of 179     4 of 6     Improved
World Competitiveness
Yearbook                        2011    41 of 59      39 of 58      5 of 5    Deteriorated
International Property Rights   2011   87 of 129      80 of 115     6 of 6     Improved
Corruption Perception Index     2011   129 of 183    134 of 178     6 of 6     Improved
Human Development Report        2011   112 of 187    113 of 187     4 of 6     Improved
E-governance Readiness                   not yet
Survey*                         2012    released      78 of 183        -            -
Doing Business                  2012   136 of 183    134 of 183     6 of 6    Deteriorated
                                         not yet
Investing Across Borders*       2012    released    87 countries     N/A          N/A
Paying Taxes                    2012   135 of 183    124 of 183     5 of 6    Deteriorated
Global Competitiveness Report   2011   75 of 142      85 of 139     6 of 6     Improved
                                         not yet
Global Enabling Trade Report*   2012    released     82 of 125        -            -
Travel & Tourism
Competitiveness                 2011   94 of 139     86 of 133      6 of 6    Deteriorated
Environmental Performance               not yet
Index*                          2012   released      50 of 163        -            -
PART 3: SEVEN BIG WINNER
                                            SECTORS

AGRIBUSINESS
BUSINESS PROCESS OUTSOURCING
CREATIVE INDUSTRIES
INFRASTRUCTURE
• POLICY
• AIRPORTS
• POWER
• ROADS AND RAIL
• SEAPORTS
• TELECOMMUNICATIONS AND INFORMATION
• WATER

MANUFACTURING AND LOGISTICS
MINING
TOURISM, MEDICAL TRAVEL, AND RETIREMENT

                   www.arangkadaphilippines.com
PART 4: GENERAL BUSINESS
                                  ENVIRONMENT

BUSINESS COSTS
ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL DISASTERS
GOVERNANCE
JUDICIAL
LABOR
LEGISLATION
MACROECONOMIC POLICY
SECURITY
SOCIAL SERVICES: EDUCATION
SOCIAL SERVICES: HEALTH AND POPULATION
SOCIAL SERVICES: POVERTY
METHODOLOGY

• Almost 50 private sector experts, including several of
  our panelists
• Annual assessment will allow measurement of
  progress


            No Longer Relevant                      Started

            Backward/Regression                     Substantial Progress

             Not Ongoing                            Completed




                     www.arangkadaphilippines.com
ASSESSMENT
                                                                   SUMMARY
                                1 star: No 2 stars: 2.5 stars: 3 stars: 3.5 stars: 4 stars:   4.5 stars: 5 stars: 6 stars:
                                 Longer Backwa- Backwa-          Not       Not     Started    Started – Substan- Comple-
                                Relevant     rds/      rds/    Ongoing Ongoing                Substan-     tial     ted
                                           Regress- Regressi            - Started                tial   Progress
                                             ion     on - Not                                 Progress
                                                    Ongoing
Part 1: Growing Too Slow                                          3                   5
Part 2: Becoming More
                                                                                                           3
Competitive
Part 3: Seven Big Winner
                                   12         24         1       100        12       105         2         21        6
Sectors
Agribusiness                                   1                  3         9         5
BPO                                 3          4                  7                   7                    7         2
Creative Industries                            1                  10                  4                    1
Infrastructure
                       Policy       1          3                  9                    7                   3         2
                     Airports                                     5                    6         2         2
                      Power         2          5         1        4                    9
                 Roads & Rail                  2                  3                    4
                    Seaports                                      14                   6
          Telecommunications                   1                  6                    3                             1
                       Water                                      3                    6
Manufacturing                                  1                  7         3          6
Logistics                           3          2                  9                    7                   3         1
Mining                              1          3                  13                  13                   3
Tourism, Medical Travel, and
                                    2          1                  7                   22                   2
Retirement
ASSESSMENT
                                                                      SUMMARY
                                1 star: No 2 stars:   2.5 stars: 3 stars: 3.5 stars: 4 stars:   4.5 stars: 5 stars: 6 stars:
                                 Longer Backwa-       Backwa-      Not       Not     Started    Started – Substan- Comple-
                                Relevant     rds/        rds/    Ongoing Ongoing                Substan-     tial     ted
                                           Regress-   Regressi            - Started                tial   Progress
                                             ion       on - Not                                 Progress
                                                      Ongoing
Part 4: General Business
                                   4         22                    55        10        75                    10        1
Environment
Business Costs                     4          1                     4                   7
Environment and Natural
                                              2                     3                   9
Disasters
Foreign Equity and
                                              3                     4                   5
Professionals
Governance                                    1                     4         3         5                    3
Judicial                                      2                     4                   5                    1
Labor                                         2                     1                   4                    1         1
Legislation                                   1                     4                   8
Local Government                              3                     3         4         5                    1
Macroeconomic Policy                                               14         1        13                    1
Security                                      5                     4         2         4
Social Services:
                   Education                                        7                   5
          Health & Population                                       3                   4                     2
                     Poverty                  2                                         1                     1
                     TOTAL         16        46           1        158       22        185         2         34        7

                                         3 stars and below: 205 = 45%                    3.5 stars and up: 250 = 55%
ASSESSMENT
                                                                   SUMMARY
                                                                       50% mark
                               Overall
                                Part-1
                                Part-2
                                Part-3
                                3-Agri
                                3-BPO
                  3-Creative Industries
                3-Infrastructure Policy
                            3-Airports
                              3-Power
                        3-Roads & Rail
                            3-Seaports
3-Telecommunications and Information
                              3-Water
                     3-Manufacturing
                            3-Logistics
                             3-Mining
3-Tourism, Medical Travel & Retirement

                                          0%   10%   20%   30%   40%     50%      60%    70%    80%   90%   100%

                                                            3 Stars and Below      3.5 Stars and Up
ASSESSMENT
                                                                 SUMMARY
                                                                   50% mark
                          Part 4
                4-Business Cost
4-Environment & Nat. Disasters
4-Foreign Equity & Professionals
                  4-Governance
                      4-Judicial
                        4-Labor
                   4-Legislation
                   4-Local Govt
       4-Macroeconomic Policy
                      4-Security
                    4-Education
               4-Health & Pop'n
                      4-Poverty

                                   0%   10%   20%   30%   40%     50%     60%    70%     80%   90%   100%

                                                      3 Stars and Below   3.5 Stars and Up
ASSESSMENT
                                              SUMMARY
Overall Rating, percentage   Roads and Rail, percentage   Tourism, Medical Travel, and
                                                             Retirement, percentage
                                                              5            1 Star    2
                             6 Stars             1 Star                     6% Stars
                                                            Stars
                               7%                 10%
                                                             6%                     3%
                                                                                3
 3.5 Stars     3 Stars          5 Stars       2 Stars                         Stars
  and up     and below           23%           14%                            20%
   55%          45%
                                             3 Stars                 4
                                   4 Stars    23%                  Stars
                                    23%                            65%




                             www.arangkadaphilippines.com
Sample Assessment

     Part 3: Business Process Outsourcing, p.10
                                          Most of the priority BPO bills have substantially progressed
                                          in the Congress. The amendment to the Labor Code
         Strengthen the industry          removing the restriction on women working at night was
         with a robust legal              signed as RA 10151. The DICT bill has been approved by the
                                          House on 3rd reading and is pending 2nd Reading in Senate.
A.       framework, passing five
                                          The Data Privacy bill has been approved by the House on 3rd
         key bills and opposing           Reading and is pending 2nd Reading in Senate. The
         legislation that harms           Cybercrime Prevention Act is pending Committee Report in
         the IT-BPO investment            the House, and approved on 2nd Reading in Senate and is a
         climate.                         LEDAC priority. Rationalization of Fiscal Incentives passed
                                          3rd Reading in the House and is pending Committee Report
                                          in Senate.

                                                         Substantial Progress




                                   www.arangkadaphilippines.com
Sample Assessment

     Part 3: Infrastructure-Roads and Rail, p.37
                                       Operationalized rail transport improvement
                                       projects include the upgraded Bicol PNR line and
          Buildintercityrail           the start of operations of the 4-station MRT-1
          and urban light              North Extension, both initiated in the previous
          rail, especially on          administration. Other major rail projects remain
          Luzon, twice as              in the planning stage except for the suspended
G.        fast. Accelerate             controversial PRC-funded Northrail project. DOTC
          rail construction            Sec. de Jesus planned to bid O&M for the Metro
          on Luzon, using              Manila light rail system to the private sector, but
          PPPs as well as              this was shelved by his successor. Delays have
          DOTCfunds.                   long plagued the efforts of DOTC to implement
                                       rail projects.1


                                                  Backwards/Regression




                                www.arangkadaphilippines.com
Investment banks-but not ADB-
                                predict Philippines can be a
                                     major economy.




Goldman Sachs                          Asian         HSBC
                Citi (2011)        Development
    (2007)                                          (2012)
                                    Bank (2011)
Bank   Date of Report     Title of Report             Growth Projection


                         The N-11: More
GS      March 2007                            • 17th largest economy by 2050
                        Than an Acronym
                                              • 6th of 10 by GDP growth, 7.3%,
                          Global Growth         2010-2050
Citi   February 2011
                           Generators         • 9th of 10 by GDP per capita
                                                growth, 5.5%, 2010-2050
                            Asia 2050:        • Philippines, named as an aspiring
ADB     August 2011     Realizing the Asian     economy, IF able to move out of
                              Century           Middle-Income Trap

HSBC   January 2012     The World in 2050: • 16th largest economy by 2050




                   www.arangkadaphilippines.com
Estimated FDI, job creation , taxes if
recommendations implemented, 2010-
                 2020
Arangkada forum presentation by John Forbes

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Arangkada forum presentation by John Forbes

  • 1.
  • 2. PURPOSE OF FORUM • Observe First Anniversary of Arangkada, launched December 13, 2010 • Report on JFC Arangkada activities • Release First Assessment of Arangkada Recommendations • Assemble public and private sector Arangkada partners to energize our advocacy for growth and jobs. Arangkada Press Launch with DTI www.arangkadaphilippines.com
  • 3. INTERACTIVE FORUM • Send us your questions and comments:  By email, arangkadaph@gmail.com  By handwritten note (in folder) -identify yourself (optional)  By Twitter, @ArangkadaPH  By Facebook, www.facebook.com/arangkadaphilippines • If we can’t answer today, we will after the Forum www.arangkadaphilippines.com
  • 4. FORUM PROGRAM Part 1: Growing Too Slow • With former Secretary Roberto de Ocampo Part 2: Becoming More Competitive • With National Competitiveness Council Private Sector Co-Chair Guillermo Luz Part 3: Seven Big Winner Sectors • With experts moderated by Mr. David Celdran Part 3: Infrastructure • With experts moderated by Ms. Maria Ressa Part 4: General Business Environment • With experts moderated by Mr. Coco Alcuaz Address by President Aquino and Open Forum www.arangkadaphilippines.com
  • 5. ARANGKADA ACTIVITIES • Nearly 70 advocacy dialogue meetings with senior government officials • Website – www.arangkadaphilippines.com (over 15,000 hits in 7 months) from 100 countries • Seven Big Winner Sectors Workshop March 30 and Arangkada Forum January 26 • Partnership with National Competitiveness Council • Cooperation with Philippine Business Groups – Legislative Priorities, Memo to President June 30, Letters re Holidays, etc. • First annual Arangkada Anniversary Assessment www.arangkadaphilippines.com
  • 6. PART 1: GROWING TOO SLOW Real GDP yoy growth rates, ASEAN-6, quarterly, 1q2009-3q2011 Indonesia Vietnam Malaysia 25% Philippines Thailand Singapore 20% 15% 10% 5% PH 0% -5% -10% 1Q-09 2Q-09 3Q-09 4Q-09 1Q-10 2Q-10 3Q-10 4Q-10 1Q-11 2Q-11 3Q-11 Sources: Respective national statistics offices www.arangkadaphilippines.com
  • 7. PART 1: GROWING TOO SLOW FDI, Bn, US$ Singapore Indonesia Vietnam 45 Malaysia Thailand Philippines 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 PH 0 -5 -10 Source: UNCTAD www.arangkadaphilippines.com
  • 8.
  • 9. PART 2: BECOMING MORE COMPETITIVE Survey Title Year RP Previous RP ASEAN-6 Trend ranking ranking position Best Countries for Business 2010 91 of 128 84 of 127 5 of 6 Deteriorated Failed States Index 2011 51 of 177 53 of 177 6 of 6 Improved Index of Economic Freedom 2011 107 of 179 115 of 179 4 of 6 Improved World Competitiveness Yearbook 2011 41 of 59 39 of 58 5 of 5 Deteriorated International Property Rights 2011 87 of 129 80 of 115 6 of 6 Improved Corruption Perception Index 2011 129 of 183 134 of 178 6 of 6 Improved Human Development Report 2011 112 of 187 113 of 187 4 of 6 Improved E-governance Readiness not yet Survey* 2012 released 78 of 183 - - Doing Business 2012 136 of 183 134 of 183 6 of 6 Deteriorated not yet Investing Across Borders* 2012 released 87 countries N/A N/A Paying Taxes 2012 135 of 183 124 of 183 5 of 6 Deteriorated Global Competitiveness Report 2011 75 of 142 85 of 139 6 of 6 Improved not yet Global Enabling Trade Report* 2012 released 82 of 125 - - Travel & Tourism Competitiveness 2011 94 of 139 86 of 133 6 of 6 Deteriorated Environmental Performance not yet Index* 2012 released 50 of 163 - -
  • 10. PART 3: SEVEN BIG WINNER SECTORS AGRIBUSINESS BUSINESS PROCESS OUTSOURCING CREATIVE INDUSTRIES INFRASTRUCTURE • POLICY • AIRPORTS • POWER • ROADS AND RAIL • SEAPORTS • TELECOMMUNICATIONS AND INFORMATION • WATER MANUFACTURING AND LOGISTICS MINING TOURISM, MEDICAL TRAVEL, AND RETIREMENT www.arangkadaphilippines.com
  • 11. PART 4: GENERAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT BUSINESS COSTS ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL DISASTERS GOVERNANCE JUDICIAL LABOR LEGISLATION MACROECONOMIC POLICY SECURITY SOCIAL SERVICES: EDUCATION SOCIAL SERVICES: HEALTH AND POPULATION SOCIAL SERVICES: POVERTY
  • 12. METHODOLOGY • Almost 50 private sector experts, including several of our panelists • Annual assessment will allow measurement of progress No Longer Relevant Started Backward/Regression Substantial Progress Not Ongoing Completed www.arangkadaphilippines.com
  • 13. ASSESSMENT SUMMARY 1 star: No 2 stars: 2.5 stars: 3 stars: 3.5 stars: 4 stars: 4.5 stars: 5 stars: 6 stars: Longer Backwa- Backwa- Not Not Started Started – Substan- Comple- Relevant rds/ rds/ Ongoing Ongoing Substan- tial ted Regress- Regressi - Started tial Progress ion on - Not Progress Ongoing Part 1: Growing Too Slow 3 5 Part 2: Becoming More 3 Competitive Part 3: Seven Big Winner 12 24 1 100 12 105 2 21 6 Sectors Agribusiness 1 3 9 5 BPO 3 4 7 7 7 2 Creative Industries 1 10 4 1 Infrastructure Policy 1 3 9 7 3 2 Airports 5 6 2 2 Power 2 5 1 4 9 Roads & Rail 2 3 4 Seaports 14 6 Telecommunications 1 6 3 1 Water 3 6 Manufacturing 1 7 3 6 Logistics 3 2 9 7 3 1 Mining 1 3 13 13 3 Tourism, Medical Travel, and 2 1 7 22 2 Retirement
  • 14. ASSESSMENT SUMMARY 1 star: No 2 stars: 2.5 stars: 3 stars: 3.5 stars: 4 stars: 4.5 stars: 5 stars: 6 stars: Longer Backwa- Backwa- Not Not Started Started – Substan- Comple- Relevant rds/ rds/ Ongoing Ongoing Substan- tial ted Regress- Regressi - Started tial Progress ion on - Not Progress Ongoing Part 4: General Business 4 22 55 10 75 10 1 Environment Business Costs 4 1 4 7 Environment and Natural 2 3 9 Disasters Foreign Equity and 3 4 5 Professionals Governance 1 4 3 5 3 Judicial 2 4 5 1 Labor 2 1 4 1 1 Legislation 1 4 8 Local Government 3 3 4 5 1 Macroeconomic Policy 14 1 13 1 Security 5 4 2 4 Social Services: Education 7 5 Health & Population 3 4 2 Poverty 2 1 1 TOTAL 16 46 1 158 22 185 2 34 7 3 stars and below: 205 = 45% 3.5 stars and up: 250 = 55%
  • 15. ASSESSMENT SUMMARY 50% mark Overall Part-1 Part-2 Part-3 3-Agri 3-BPO 3-Creative Industries 3-Infrastructure Policy 3-Airports 3-Power 3-Roads & Rail 3-Seaports 3-Telecommunications and Information 3-Water 3-Manufacturing 3-Logistics 3-Mining 3-Tourism, Medical Travel & Retirement 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 3 Stars and Below 3.5 Stars and Up
  • 16. ASSESSMENT SUMMARY 50% mark Part 4 4-Business Cost 4-Environment & Nat. Disasters 4-Foreign Equity & Professionals 4-Governance 4-Judicial 4-Labor 4-Legislation 4-Local Govt 4-Macroeconomic Policy 4-Security 4-Education 4-Health & Pop'n 4-Poverty 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 3 Stars and Below 3.5 Stars and Up
  • 17. ASSESSMENT SUMMARY Overall Rating, percentage Roads and Rail, percentage Tourism, Medical Travel, and Retirement, percentage 5 1 Star 2 6 Stars 1 Star 6% Stars Stars 7% 10% 6% 3% 3 3.5 Stars 3 Stars 5 Stars 2 Stars Stars and up and below 23% 14% 20% 55% 45% 3 Stars 4 4 Stars 23% Stars 23% 65% www.arangkadaphilippines.com
  • 18. Sample Assessment Part 3: Business Process Outsourcing, p.10 Most of the priority BPO bills have substantially progressed in the Congress. The amendment to the Labor Code Strengthen the industry removing the restriction on women working at night was with a robust legal signed as RA 10151. The DICT bill has been approved by the House on 3rd reading and is pending 2nd Reading in Senate. A. framework, passing five The Data Privacy bill has been approved by the House on 3rd key bills and opposing Reading and is pending 2nd Reading in Senate. The legislation that harms Cybercrime Prevention Act is pending Committee Report in the IT-BPO investment the House, and approved on 2nd Reading in Senate and is a climate. LEDAC priority. Rationalization of Fiscal Incentives passed 3rd Reading in the House and is pending Committee Report in Senate. Substantial Progress www.arangkadaphilippines.com
  • 19. Sample Assessment Part 3: Infrastructure-Roads and Rail, p.37 Operationalized rail transport improvement projects include the upgraded Bicol PNR line and Buildintercityrail the start of operations of the 4-station MRT-1 and urban light North Extension, both initiated in the previous rail, especially on administration. Other major rail projects remain Luzon, twice as in the planning stage except for the suspended G. fast. Accelerate controversial PRC-funded Northrail project. DOTC rail construction Sec. de Jesus planned to bid O&M for the Metro on Luzon, using Manila light rail system to the private sector, but PPPs as well as this was shelved by his successor. Delays have DOTCfunds. long plagued the efforts of DOTC to implement rail projects.1 Backwards/Regression www.arangkadaphilippines.com
  • 20. Investment banks-but not ADB- predict Philippines can be a major economy. Goldman Sachs Asian HSBC Citi (2011) Development (2007) (2012) Bank (2011)
  • 21. Bank Date of Report Title of Report Growth Projection The N-11: More GS March 2007 • 17th largest economy by 2050 Than an Acronym • 6th of 10 by GDP growth, 7.3%, Global Growth 2010-2050 Citi February 2011 Generators • 9th of 10 by GDP per capita growth, 5.5%, 2010-2050 Asia 2050: • Philippines, named as an aspiring ADB August 2011 Realizing the Asian economy, IF able to move out of Century Middle-Income Trap HSBC January 2012 The World in 2050: • 16th largest economy by 2050 www.arangkadaphilippines.com
  • 22. Estimated FDI, job creation , taxes if recommendations implemented, 2010- 2020

Hinweis der Redaktion

  1. Bank, Date of Report, What,