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Chapter 1
         An Introduction to Business
         Statistics




McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Why a Manager Needs to
Know about Statistics

• To know how to properly present information
• To know how to draw conclusions about
  populations based on sample information
• To know how to improve processes
• To know how to obtain reliable forecasts




                                                1-2
Origin

• The word ‘statistics’ has either been
  derived from the Latin word ‘status’ or
  Italian word ‘statista’ or the German
  word ‘statistik’ each of which means a
  ‘political state’. In the older days, it was
  considered as ‘the science of
  statecraft’. The government in those
  days used to keep records of
  population, births, and deaths etc. for
  administrative purposes.
                                                 1-3
The Growth and Development
of Modern Statistics

   Needs of government to
   collect data on its citizens


  The development of the
  mathematics of probability
  theory

  The advent of the computer
                                  1-4
Definitions of statistics
In the singular Noun
•   Statistics is a branch of science which deals with scientific
    methods of collection, organization, presentation, analysis and
    interpretation of data obtained by conducting a survey or an
    experimental study.
•   Collection: collection of facts & figures related with the problem.
    It may be primary and as well as secondary.
•   Organization: Editing, classification and tabulation are the three
    steps in the organization of data.
•   Presentation: Organized data are presented with the help of
    charts, graphs and diagrams.
•   Analysis: statistical analysis can be two types descriptive &
    inferential.
•   Interpretation: drawing valid conclusions.


                                                                          1-5
In the plural noun
•   “Statistics are aggregate of facts affected to a marked extent by multiplicity of
    causes, numerically expressed, enumerated or estimated according to
    reasonable standard of accuracy, collected in a systematic manner for a
    predetermined purpose and placed in relation to each other.”
• This definitation highlights a few major
  CHARACTERISTICS of statistics.
     – Statistics are aggregate of facts.
     – Statistics are affected to a marked extent by multiplicity of
       causes.
     – Statistics must be numerically expressed.
     – Statistics must be enumerated or estimated according to
       reasonable standard of accuracy.
     – Statistics should be collected in a systematic manner for a
       predetermined purpose.
     – Statistics should be placed in relation to each other.



                                                                                        1-6
Functions of statistics:
  – Simplifies complexities.
  – Preciseness and definiteness.
  – Enables comparison of phenomenon.
  – Study relationship between different facts.
  – Helps prediction and formulation of
    policies.
  – Helps in forecasting.



                                                  1-7
Basic concepts

Population A set of existing units (usually
           people, objects or events)

Variable    A measurable characteristic of the
            population

Census      An examination of the entire
            population of measurements

Sample      A selected subset of the units of a
            population
                                                  1-8
Sample from Population




Population

                         Sample




                                  1-9
Population and Sample

•


       Population             Sample
                         Use statistics to
                         summarize features

    Use parameters to
    summarize features



Inference on the population from the sample
                                              1-10
Population Size

• Finite
• Infinite




                  1-11
Finite population

• Finite if it is of fixed and limited size
• Finite if it can be counted
  – Even if very large
  – For example, all the Chrysler Sebring cars
    actually made during just this model year is
    a finite population
     • Because a specific number of cars was made
       between the start and end of the model year



                                                     1-12
Infinite population

• Infinite if it is unlimited

• Infinite if listing or counting every
  element is impossible
   – For example, all the Chrysler Sebring cars
     that could have possibly been made this
     model year is an infinite population




                                                  1-13
Terminology
• Measurement
• Value
• Quantitative
• Qualitative
• Population of Measurement
• Census
• Sample
• Descriptive Statistics
• Statistical Inference

                              1-14
Measurement

 The process of determining the extent,
 quantity, amount, etc, of the variable of
 interest for some a particular item of the
 population.

• Produces data

• For example, collecting annual starting
  salaries of graduates from last year’s
  MBA program
                                            1-15
Value

  The result of measurement.

• The specific measurement for a
  particular unit in the population

• For example, the starting salaries of
  graduates from last year’s MBA
  Program


                                          1-16
Quantitative

  Measurements that represent
  quantities. (For example, “how much” or
  “how many.”)

• Annual starting salary is quantitative

• Age and number of children are also
  quantitative


                                           1-17
Qualitative

  A descriptive category to which a
  population unit belongs: a descriptive
  attribute of a population unit.

• A person’s gender is qualitative

• A person’s hair color is also qualitative



                                              1-18
Population of Measurements

  Measurement of the variable of interest
  for each and every population unit.

• Sometimes referred to as an
  observation

• For example, annual starting salaries of
  all graduates from last year’s MBA
  program
                                         1-19
Census

 The process of collecting the population
 of all measurements is a census.

• Census usually too expensive, too time
  consuming, and too much effort for a
  large population




                                        1-20
Sample

 A subset of population units.
• For example, a university graduated
  8,742 students
• This is too large for a census
• So, we select a sample of these
  graduates and learn their annual
  starting salaries


                                        1-21
Sample of Measurements

• Measured values of the variable of
  interest for the sample units

• For example, the actual annual starting
  salaries of the sampled graduates




                                            1-22
Descriptive Statistics

  The science of describing the important
  aspects of a set of measurements.
• For example, for a set of annual starting
  salaries, want to know:
  – How much to expect
  – What is a high versus low salary
• If the population is small, could take a
  census and make statistical inferences
• But if the population is too large, then
  …
                                             1-23
Statistical Inference

  The science of using a sample of
  measurements to make generalizations
  about the important aspects of a
  population of measurements.

• For example, use a sample of starting
  salaries to estimate the important
  aspects of the population of starting
  salaries


                                          1-24
Descriptive Statistics


• Collect data
  – e.g. Survey
• Present data
  – e.g. Tables and graphs
• Characterize data
  – e.g. Sample mean =       ∑X   i

                             n        1-25
Inferential Statistics
• Estimation
  – e.g.: Estimate the
    population mean weight
    using the sample mean
    weight
• Hypothesis testing
  – e.g.: Test the claim that
    the population mean
    weight is conclusions and/or making decisions
     Drawing 120 pounds
  concerning a population based on sample results.
                                                     1-26
Limitations of statistics
• Deal with quantitative characteristics
  only
• Deal with averages
• Do not study individuals
• Results are approximately correct
• Results not always beyond the doubt
• Misuse possible
• Should be used only by experts

                                           1-27
Statistics in Business Management:
•   Statistics is a method of decision making in the face of uncertainty on the basis of
    numerical data and calculated risks in business.
•   Marketing:
•   Analysis of data for new product development.
•   To establishing sales territories.
•   To establishing advertising strategies.
•   Production:
•   In quality control
•   Decision about the quantity of self manufacturing.
•   Finance:
•   In profit & dividend analysis.
•   In assets & liabilities analysis.
•   In income & expenditure.
•   Investment decision under uncertainty.
•   Personnel:
•   Analysis of wage rates.
•   Analysis of labor turnover rates.
•   Analysis of training & development programmes.




                                                                                           1-28
Summation Notation

•   Summation is represented by the Greek letter ∑ (called sigma).
•   If x1, x2, …….. xn are n values assumed by a variable X, then the sum of the observations
    will be (x1+ x2+ ….+ xn) is represented by ∑ xi .
•   ∑ cxi = c∑ xi, where c is constant.
•   ∑ c = nc
•   ∑ (axi + b) = a∑ xi + nb, Here a & b are constants.
•   ∑ (xi + yi) = ∑ xi + ∑ yi, Here X & Y are constants.
•   ∑( xi – a) = ∑ xi – na
•   ∑( xi – a)2 = ∑ xi2 – 2a∑ xi – na2
•   E.g.: A variable X assumes the values x1 = 8, x2 =3, x3 = 5, x4 = 12 and
•          x5= 10.
•   Calculate
•   (i) ∑ xi
•   (ii) ∑ xi2
•   (iii) ∑ (xi + 5)
•   (iv) ∑( xi – 2)2
•   (v) ∑ (2xi + 3)




                                                                                            1-29

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Bs1

  • 1. Chapter 1 An Introduction to Business Statistics McGraw-Hill/Irwin
  • 2. Why a Manager Needs to Know about Statistics • To know how to properly present information • To know how to draw conclusions about populations based on sample information • To know how to improve processes • To know how to obtain reliable forecasts 1-2
  • 3. Origin • The word ‘statistics’ has either been derived from the Latin word ‘status’ or Italian word ‘statista’ or the German word ‘statistik’ each of which means a ‘political state’. In the older days, it was considered as ‘the science of statecraft’. The government in those days used to keep records of population, births, and deaths etc. for administrative purposes. 1-3
  • 4. The Growth and Development of Modern Statistics Needs of government to collect data on its citizens The development of the mathematics of probability theory The advent of the computer 1-4
  • 5. Definitions of statistics In the singular Noun • Statistics is a branch of science which deals with scientific methods of collection, organization, presentation, analysis and interpretation of data obtained by conducting a survey or an experimental study. • Collection: collection of facts & figures related with the problem. It may be primary and as well as secondary. • Organization: Editing, classification and tabulation are the three steps in the organization of data. • Presentation: Organized data are presented with the help of charts, graphs and diagrams. • Analysis: statistical analysis can be two types descriptive & inferential. • Interpretation: drawing valid conclusions. 1-5
  • 6. In the plural noun • “Statistics are aggregate of facts affected to a marked extent by multiplicity of causes, numerically expressed, enumerated or estimated according to reasonable standard of accuracy, collected in a systematic manner for a predetermined purpose and placed in relation to each other.” • This definitation highlights a few major CHARACTERISTICS of statistics. – Statistics are aggregate of facts. – Statistics are affected to a marked extent by multiplicity of causes. – Statistics must be numerically expressed. – Statistics must be enumerated or estimated according to reasonable standard of accuracy. – Statistics should be collected in a systematic manner for a predetermined purpose. – Statistics should be placed in relation to each other. 1-6
  • 7. Functions of statistics: – Simplifies complexities. – Preciseness and definiteness. – Enables comparison of phenomenon. – Study relationship between different facts. – Helps prediction and formulation of policies. – Helps in forecasting. 1-7
  • 8. Basic concepts Population A set of existing units (usually people, objects or events) Variable A measurable characteristic of the population Census An examination of the entire population of measurements Sample A selected subset of the units of a population 1-8
  • 10. Population and Sample • Population Sample Use statistics to summarize features Use parameters to summarize features Inference on the population from the sample 1-10
  • 12. Finite population • Finite if it is of fixed and limited size • Finite if it can be counted – Even if very large – For example, all the Chrysler Sebring cars actually made during just this model year is a finite population • Because a specific number of cars was made between the start and end of the model year 1-12
  • 13. Infinite population • Infinite if it is unlimited • Infinite if listing or counting every element is impossible – For example, all the Chrysler Sebring cars that could have possibly been made this model year is an infinite population 1-13
  • 14. Terminology • Measurement • Value • Quantitative • Qualitative • Population of Measurement • Census • Sample • Descriptive Statistics • Statistical Inference 1-14
  • 15. Measurement The process of determining the extent, quantity, amount, etc, of the variable of interest for some a particular item of the population. • Produces data • For example, collecting annual starting salaries of graduates from last year’s MBA program 1-15
  • 16. Value The result of measurement. • The specific measurement for a particular unit in the population • For example, the starting salaries of graduates from last year’s MBA Program 1-16
  • 17. Quantitative Measurements that represent quantities. (For example, “how much” or “how many.”) • Annual starting salary is quantitative • Age and number of children are also quantitative 1-17
  • 18. Qualitative A descriptive category to which a population unit belongs: a descriptive attribute of a population unit. • A person’s gender is qualitative • A person’s hair color is also qualitative 1-18
  • 19. Population of Measurements Measurement of the variable of interest for each and every population unit. • Sometimes referred to as an observation • For example, annual starting salaries of all graduates from last year’s MBA program 1-19
  • 20. Census The process of collecting the population of all measurements is a census. • Census usually too expensive, too time consuming, and too much effort for a large population 1-20
  • 21. Sample A subset of population units. • For example, a university graduated 8,742 students • This is too large for a census • So, we select a sample of these graduates and learn their annual starting salaries 1-21
  • 22. Sample of Measurements • Measured values of the variable of interest for the sample units • For example, the actual annual starting salaries of the sampled graduates 1-22
  • 23. Descriptive Statistics The science of describing the important aspects of a set of measurements. • For example, for a set of annual starting salaries, want to know: – How much to expect – What is a high versus low salary • If the population is small, could take a census and make statistical inferences • But if the population is too large, then … 1-23
  • 24. Statistical Inference The science of using a sample of measurements to make generalizations about the important aspects of a population of measurements. • For example, use a sample of starting salaries to estimate the important aspects of the population of starting salaries 1-24
  • 25. Descriptive Statistics • Collect data – e.g. Survey • Present data – e.g. Tables and graphs • Characterize data – e.g. Sample mean = ∑X i n 1-25
  • 26. Inferential Statistics • Estimation – e.g.: Estimate the population mean weight using the sample mean weight • Hypothesis testing – e.g.: Test the claim that the population mean weight is conclusions and/or making decisions Drawing 120 pounds concerning a population based on sample results. 1-26
  • 27. Limitations of statistics • Deal with quantitative characteristics only • Deal with averages • Do not study individuals • Results are approximately correct • Results not always beyond the doubt • Misuse possible • Should be used only by experts 1-27
  • 28. Statistics in Business Management: • Statistics is a method of decision making in the face of uncertainty on the basis of numerical data and calculated risks in business. • Marketing: • Analysis of data for new product development. • To establishing sales territories. • To establishing advertising strategies. • Production: • In quality control • Decision about the quantity of self manufacturing. • Finance: • In profit & dividend analysis. • In assets & liabilities analysis. • In income & expenditure. • Investment decision under uncertainty. • Personnel: • Analysis of wage rates. • Analysis of labor turnover rates. • Analysis of training & development programmes. 1-28
  • 29. Summation Notation • Summation is represented by the Greek letter ∑ (called sigma). • If x1, x2, …….. xn are n values assumed by a variable X, then the sum of the observations will be (x1+ x2+ ….+ xn) is represented by ∑ xi . • ∑ cxi = c∑ xi, where c is constant. • ∑ c = nc • ∑ (axi + b) = a∑ xi + nb, Here a & b are constants. • ∑ (xi + yi) = ∑ xi + ∑ yi, Here X & Y are constants. • ∑( xi – a) = ∑ xi – na • ∑( xi – a)2 = ∑ xi2 – 2a∑ xi – na2 • E.g.: A variable X assumes the values x1 = 8, x2 =3, x3 = 5, x4 = 12 and • x5= 10. • Calculate • (i) ∑ xi • (ii) ∑ xi2 • (iii) ∑ (xi + 5) • (iv) ∑( xi – 2)2 • (v) ∑ (2xi + 3) 1-29