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THIS REPORT
          HAS BEEN        OMA
                          AMO
          PRODUCED IN
          COLLABORATION
          WITH:



 REPORT
   INT

 2011




THE RENEWABLE ENERGY BY 2050
100%
     ENERGY REPORT
WWF
WWF is one of the world’s largest and most experienced
independent conservation organizations, with over 5 million
supporters and a global Network active in more than 100
countries.
WWF’s mission is to stop the degradation of the planet’s
natural environment and to build a future in which humans
live in harmony with nature, by conserving the world’s bio-
logical diversity, ensuring that the use of renewable natural
resources is sustainable, and promoting the reduction of
pollution and wasteful consumption.



ECOFYS
Established in 1984 with the mission of achieving a
sustainable energy supply for everyone, Ecofys has become
a leader in energy saving, sustainable energy solutions and
climate policies. The unique synergy between our fields
of competence is the key to this success. We create smart,
effective, practical and sustainable solutions for and with our
clients.


OMA
The Office for Metropolitan Architecture (OMA) is a
leading international partnership practicing contemporary
architecture, urbanism, and cultural analysis. The
counterpart to OMA’s architectural practice is the company’s
research-based think tank, AMO. While OMA remains
dedicated to the realization of buildings and master
plans, AMO operates in areas beyond the boundaries of
architecture and urbanism such as media, politics, sociology,
technology, energy, fashion, publishing and graphic design.


WWF International
Avenue du Mont-Blanc
1196 Gland
Switzerland
www.panda.org

Ecofys
P.O. Box 8408
3503 RK Utrecht
The Netherlands
www.ecofys.com

OMA
Heer Bokelweg 149
3032 AD Rotterdam
The Netherlands
www.oma.eu

This report was made possible by the
generous support of ENECO.

ISBN 978-2-940443-26-0




Front cover photo: © Wild Wonders of Europe / Inaki Relanzon / WWF
CONTRIBUTORS
Editor in Chief: Stephan Singer
Technical Editor: Jean-Philippe Denruyter
Principal Writer Part 1: Barney Jeffries

Editorial Team Part 1: Owen Gibbons, Ellen Hendrix, Martin
Hiller, Richard McLellan, Donald Pols

With special thanks for review and contributions from:
Keith Allott, Jason Anderson, Bryn Baker, Jessica Battle,
Esther Blom, Kellie Caught, Kirsty Clough, Keya Chatterjee,
Thomas Duveau, Wendy Elliott, Magnus Emfel, Lynn Englum,
Mariangiola Fabbri, Ian Gray, Bart Geneen, Inna Gritsevich,
Johan van de Gronden, May Guerraoui, Piers Hart, Joerg
Hartmann, Patrick Hofstetter, Richard Holland, Yanli Hou,
Nora Ibrahim, Andrea Kaszewski, Sampsa Kiianmaa, Alexey
Kokorin, Li Lifeng, Pete Lockley, Paul Maassen, Yosuke Masako,
David McLaughlin, László Máthé, Elisabeth McLellan, Martin
von Mirbach, Kevin Ogorzalek, Stuart Orr, Mireille Perrin,
Duncan Pollard, Voahirana Randriambola, Georg Rast, Peter
Roberntz, Rafael Senga, Shirish Sinha, Gerald Steindlegger, Rod
Taylor, Ivan Valencia, Arianna Vitali, Heikki Willstedt, Mattias
de Woul, Richard Worthington, Naoyuki Yamagishi
Stefan Henningson

Partner organizations

Ecofys (Part 2)
Principal Writers: Yvonne Deng, Stijn Cornelissen, Sebastian
Klaus
Principal Reviewers: Kees van der Leun, Bart Wesselink,
Kornelis Blok
(See complete list of contributing authors, reviewers and
advising experts on page 91 Part 2.)

The OMA-AMO team was led by Partner
Reinier de Graaf and Associate Laura Baird
Team: Tanner Merkeley, Federico D’Amico
Vilhelm Christensen, Amelia McPhee, Tim Cheung,
Dicle Uzunyayla




                                    WWF The Energy Report Page 3
100%
RENEW-
ABLE
ENERGY
WWF The Energy Report Page 4
© Fritz Pölking / WWF
CONTENTS
10 Recommendations for a
100% Renewable Energy Future                                   8




PART 	 1
	
               	
               	
                       	       	       	        	         	

Introduction                                                   11
A renewable energy future: why we need it                     13
Energy facts we have to face                                  13
100% possible                                                 23
The Ecofys scenario in a nutshell                             24
The energy mix                                                29
The challenges ahead                                          43
•       Energy conservation                                   44
•       Electrification                                       51
•       Equity                                                56
•       Land and sea use                                      60
•       Lifestyle                                             66
•       Finance                                               72
•       Innovation                                            78
•       The future is in your hands                           84



PART 	 2	      	        	      	       	        	         	
	               	
The Ecofys energy scenario                                  87
Executive summary                                           92
Introduction                                              103
Approach                                                  107
Demand                                                     115
Supply – Renewable energy (excl. bioenergy)               139
Supply – Sustainable bioenergy                            157
Investments and savings                                   192
Policy considerations                                     217
Conclusions                                               229

APPENDICES                                                    231

REFERENCES                                                242

GLOSSARY                                                      252




                                   WWF The Energy Report Page 5
Map 1: A new perspective on
the world - looking towards
2050. Global GIS Database:
Complete GlobaL Set, 2002
© AMO

WWF The Energy Report Page 6
“By 2050, we could get all the energy we
need from renewable sources. This report
shows that such a transition is not only
possible but also cost-effective, providing
energy that is affordable for all and
producing it in ways that can be sustained
by the global economy and the planet.
The transition will present significant
challenges, but I hope this report will
inspire governments and business to come
to grips with those challenges and, at the
same time, to move boldly to bring the
renewable economy into reality. There is
nothing more important to our ability to
create a sustainable future.”
James P. Leape
Director General
WWF International




                                     WWF The Energy Report Page 7
10 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR A 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY FUTURE
	 1.
CLEAN ENERGY:               Promote only the most efficient products.
Develop existing and new renewable energy sources to provide
enough clean energy for all by 2050.


                                         	 2.
                                         GRIDS:       Share and exchange clean energy
                                         through grids and trade, making the best use of
                                         sustainable energy resources in different areas.


          	 3.
          ACCESS:          End energy poverty: provide clean
          electricity and promote sustainable practices, such as
          efficient cook stoves, to everyone in developing countries.


                                             4.
                                          MONEY:         Invest in renewable, clean energy and energy-efficient products and buildings.




                	 5.
                FOOD:        Stop food waste. Choose food that is sourced in an efficient and sustainable
                way to free up land for nature, sustainable forestry and biofuel production. Everyone has an
                equal right to healthy levels of protein in their diet – for this to happen, wealthier people
                need to eat less meat.




     WWF The Energy Report Page 8
© Martin Harvey / WWF-Canon
                                                                                                         RECOMMENDATIONS
                                                                                                              PART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT




                                                   	 6.
                                                   MATERIALS:             Reduce, re-use, recycle – to
                                                   minimize waste and save energy. Develop durable

              7.
                                                   materials. And avoid things we don’t need.


          TRANSPORT:              Provide incentives to encourage greater use of
          public transport, and to reduce the distances people and goods travel.
          Promote electrification wherever possible, and support research into
          hydrogen and other alternative fuels for shipping and aviation.




                                       	 8.
                                       TECHNOLOGY:              Develop national, bilateral and multilateral
                                       action plans to promote research and development in energy
                                       efficiency and renewable energy.




                                                       	 9.
                                                       SUSTAINABILITY:                  Develop and enforce strict
                                                       sustainability criteria that ensure renewable energy is
                                                       compatible with environmental and development goals.

	 10.
AGREEMENTS:               Support ambitious climate and energy agreements to
provide global guidance and promote global cooperation on renewable energy
and efficiency efforts.




                                                                                                 WWF The Energy Report Page 9
© NASA
“WWF HAS A VISION
OF A WORLD THAT
IS POWERED BY 100
PER CENT RENEWABLE
ENERGY SOURCES BY
THE MIDDLE OF THIS
CENTURY”
WWF The Energy Report Page 10
© NASA




                                                                                                                  INTRODUCTION
                                                                                                                    PART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT

                                                                                                                                                              500



                                                                                                                                                              400




                                                                                                                                        Final Energy (EJ/a)
                                                                                                                                                              300



                                                                                                                                                              200



                                                                                                                                                              100



                                                                                                                                                               0
                                                                                                                                                                    2000


                        Figure 1
                        Evolution of energy supply in the Energy Scenario,
                        showing the key developments.
                        Source: The Ecofys Energy Scenario, December 2010.




         100 PER CENT RENEWABLE
         ENERGY BY 2050
         WWF has a vision of a world that is                    The Ecofys scenario raises a        The world needs to
         powered by 100 per cent renewable energy               number of significant issues and    seriously consider
         sources by the middle of this century.                 challenges. The Energy Report       what will be required
         Unless we make this transition, the                    investigates the most critically    to transition to a
         world is most unlikely to avoid predicted              important political, economic,      sustainable energy
         escalating impacts of climate change.                  environmental and social choices    future, and to find
                                                                and challenges – and encourages     solutions to the
         But is it possible to achieve 100 per cent             their further debate.               dilemmas raised in
         renewable energy supplies for everyone                                                     this report. Answering
         on the planet by 2050? WWF called                      How are we going to provide for     these challenges - the
         upon the expertise of respected energy                 all of the world’s future needs,    solutions to the energy
         consultancy Ecofys to provide an answer                on energy, food, fibre, water and   needs of current and
         to this question. In response, Ecofys has              others, without running into        future generations
         produced a bold and ambitious scenario -               such huge issues as: conflicting    – is one of the most
         which demonstrates that it is technically              demands on land/water               important, challenging
         possible to achieve almost 100 per cent                availability and use; rising, and   and urgent political
         renewable energy sources within the next               in some cases, unsustainable        tasks ahead.
         four decades. The ambitious outcomes                   consumption of commodities;
         of this scenario, along with all of the                nuclear waste; and regionally
         assumptions, opportunities, detailed data              appropriate and adequate
         and sources, are presented as Part 2 of this           energy mixes?
         report.




                                                                                                    WWF The Energy Report Page 11
“1.4 BILLION
                 PEOPLE HAVE
                 NO ACCESS
                 TO RELIABLE
                 ELECTRICITY ”




WWF The Energy Report Page 12
RENEWABLE ENERGY FUTURE
                                                                            PART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT




                             A RENEWABLE
                             ENERGY FUTURE:
                             WHY WE NEED IT
© Cat Holloway / WWF-Canon
                             Switching to renewable                 At the same time, more
                             energy isn’t just the                  than 2.7 billion people
                                                                    are dependent on
                             best choice. It’s our                  traditional bioenergy
                             only option.                           (mainly from wood,
                                                                    crop residues and
                             The way we produce and use             animal dung) as their
                             energy today is not sustainable.       main source of cooking
                             Our main fossil fuel sources – oil,    and heating fuel2 .
                             coal and gas – are finite natural      This is often harvested
                             resources, and we are depleting        unsustainably,
                             them at a rapid rate. Furthermore      causing soil erosion
                             they are the main contributors to      and increasing the
                             climate change, and the race to        risk of flooding, as
                             the last ‘cheap’ fossil resources      well as threatening
                             evokes disasters for the natural       biodiversity and adding
                             environment as seen recently           to greenhouse gas
                             in the case of the BP oil spill        emissions. Traditional
                             in the Gulf of Mexico. In the          stoves are also a
                             developing world, regional and         significant health
                             local desertification is caused by     problem: the World
                             depletion of fuelwood and other        Health Organization
                             biomass sources that are often         (WHO) estimates that
                             used very inefficiently causing        2.5 million women
                             substantive in-door pollution          and young children die
                             and millions of deaths annually.       prematurely each year
                             A fully sustainable renewable          from inhaling their
                             power supply is the only way           fumes3. With many
                             we can secure energy for all and       developing societies
                             avoid environmental catastrophe.       becoming increasingly
                                                                    urban, air quality
                                                                    in cities will decline
                             ENERGY FACTS WE                        further.

                             HAVE TO FACE                           Finite and increasingly
                                                                    expensive fossil fuels
                                                                    are not the answer for
                             1.4 billion people have                developing countries.
                             no access to reliable                  But renewable energy
                                                                    sources offer the
                             electricity1.                          potential to transform
                                                                    the quality of life and
                             While most of us take energy for
                                                                    improve the economic
                             granted as a basic right, a fifth of
                                                                    prospects of billions.
                             the world’s population still has
                             no access to reliable electricity –
                             drastically reducing their chances     1. IEA, World Energy Outlook (WEO)
                                                                    2010, Paris
                             of getting an education and            2. IEA, World Energy Outlook (WEO)
                                                                    2010, Paris.
                             earning a living. As energy prices     3. http://www.iaea.org/
                                                                    Publications/Magazines/Bulletin/
                             increase, the world’s poor will        Bull442/44204002429.pdf
                             continue to be excluded.




                                                                    WWF The Energy Report Page 13
“IF EVERYONE
                                                                                             CONSUMED AS
                                                                                             MUCH ENERGY
                                                                                             AS THE AVERAGE
                                                                                             SINGAPOREAN
                                                                                             AND U.S.
                                                                                             RESIDENT, THE
                                                                                             WORLD’S OIL
                                                                                             RESERVES WOULD
                                                                                             BE DEPLETED IN
                                                                                             9 YEARS”*



Figure 2: World oil production by type
http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/docs/weo2010/key_graphs.pdf




 OIL AND GAS ARE
 RUNNING OUT
 Supplies of cheap, conventional oil and gas            Energy companies are                 Processing and using
 are declining while our energy demands                 increasingly looking to fill the     unconventional fossil
 continue to increase. It is clear that our             gap with unconventional sources      sources produces
 reliance on fossil fuels cannot continue               of oil and gas, such as shale gas,   large quantities of
 indefinitely. With the world’s population              oil from deep water platforms        greenhouse gasses and
 projected to increase to over nine billion             like BP’s Deepwater Horizon,         chemical pollution,
 over the next 40 years, “business-as-usual”            or the Canadian tar sands. But       and puts unsustainable
 is not an option.                                      these come at an unprecedented       demands on our
 According to the International Energy                  cost – and not just in economic      freshwater resources,
 Agency (IEA)4 , production from known oil              terms. Many reserves are located     with severe impacts
 and gas reserves will fall by around 40-60             in some of the world’s most          on biodiversity and
 per cent by 2030. Yet the developed world’s            pristine places – such as tropical   ecosystem services.
 thirst for energy is unabated, while demand            rainforests and the Arctic – that
 is rocketing in emerging economies, such               are vital for biodiversity and the   4. IEA, World Energy Outlook (WEO),
                                                                                             2009, Paris.
 as China, India and Brazil. If everyone                ecosystem services that we all       5. Per capita oil consumption in the U.S.
                                                                                             and Canada is about 3 tons annually,
 in the world used oil at the same rate as              depend on, from freshwater to a      in Saudi Arabia about 5 tons and in
 the average Saudi, Singaporean or U.S.                 healthy atmosphere. Extracting
                                                                                             Singapore 10 tons. Proven oil reserves
                                                                                             are estimated at about 205 billion tons
 resident, the world’s proven oil reserves              them is difficult and dangerous,
                                                                                             in 2010 (BP, Statistical Review, 2010)
 would be used up in less than 10 years5.                                                    *Proven oil reserves are estimated 1,349
 Competition for fossil fuel resources is               and costly to businesses,            billion barrels. Oil consumption in the
                                                                                             U. S. 18.86 million barrels per day.
 a source of international tension, and                 communities and economies            World population is 6.9 billion.
 potentially conflict.                                  when things go wrong.

WWF The Energy Report Page 14
OIL AND GAS ARE RUNNING REPORT
                                                                                                                      PART 1: THE ENERGY
                                                                                                                                         OUT




                                                                                                                 FOSSIL FUEL
                                                                                                                 SOURCING
Map 2: Oil Claims in Africa : P. Hearn, Jr., T. Hare, et. al., Global GIS Database: Complete Global
Set, 2002 © AMO
                                                                                                              WWF The Energy Report Page 15
CLIMATE CHANGE
IS ALREADY A REALITY
Even if fossil fuel supplies were infinite, we   The global energy sector holds
would have another compelling reason for         the key. It is responsible for
an urgent switch to renewable                    around two-thirds of global
energy: climate change. Hundreds of              greenhouse gas emissions,
millions of people worldwide are already         an amount that is increasing
affected by water shortages, crop failures,      at a faster rate than for any
tropical diseases, flooding and extreme          other sector. Coal is the most
weather events – conditions that are             carbon-intensive fuel and the
likely to be made worse by increasing            single largest source of global
concentrations of greenhouse gasses in the       greenhouse gas emissions.
Earth’s atmosphere. The WHO estimates            Embracing renewable energy,
that climate change is already causing           along with ambitious energy-
more than 150,000 deaths a year6.                saving measures, is the best way
                                                 to achieve the rapid emissions
Global warming threatens the fragile             reductions we need.
balance of our planet’s ecosystems, and
could consign a quarter of all species           6. http://www.who.int/globalchange/news/
                                                 fsclimandhealth/en/index.html
to extinction7. The loss of ecological           7. http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v427/
                                                 n6970/abs/nature02121.html
services from forests, coral reefs and other     8. For a report on the effects of climate change on
                                                 ecosystem services, see The Economics of Ecosystems
ecosystems will also have huge economic          and Biodiversity (TEEB) TEEB Climate Issues Update.
                                                 September 2009
implications8.The costs of adapting to           9. Martin Parry, Nigel Arnell, Pam Berry, David
climate change will be colossal: a recent        Dodman, Samuel Fankhauser, Chris Hope, Sari Kovats,
                                                 Robert Nicholls, David Satterthwaite, Richard Tiffin,
report suggests that by 2030, the world          Tim Wheeler (2009) Assessing the Costs of Adaptation
                                                 to Climate Change: A Review of the UNFCCC and
may need to spend more than €200 billion         Other Recent Estimates, International Institute for
                                                 Environment and Development and Grantham Institute
a year on measures such as building flood        for Climate Change, London.
defences, transporting water for agriculture
and rebuilding infrastructure affected
by climate change9.To avoid devastating
consequences, we must keep eventual
global warming below 1.5°C compared to
pre-Industrial temperatures. To have a
chance of doing that, global greenhouse gas
emissions need to start falling within the
next five years, and we need to cut them by
at least 80 per cent globally by 2050 (from
1990 levels) – and even further beyond that
date.




WWF The Energy Report Page 16
© Yifei ZHANG / WWF-Canon
             CHANGINGTHEREALITY
                  PART 1: ENERGY REPORT




CLIMATE
CHANGE IS
ALREADY
A REALITY
      WWF The Energy Report Page 17
© Donald Miller / WWF-Canon
“NUCLEAR IS AN
UNETHICAL AND
EXPENSIVE OPTION”



WWF The Energy Report Page 18
© Donald Miller / WWF-Canon




                                                                                               10,000 YRS OF HARMFUL ENERGY REPORT
                                                                                                                PART 1: THE
                                                                                                                            WASTE




                              NUCLEAR WASTE WILL BE
                              DANGEROUS FOR 10,000
                              YEARS
                              For some, nuclear power is seen to be a
                              part of the solution to the energy crisis. It
                              produces large-scale electricity with low
                              carbon emissions – although mining and
                              enriching uranium is very energy intensive.

                              But we cannot escape the reality that
                              nuclear fission produces dangerous waste
                              that remains highly toxic for thousands
                              of years – and there is nowhere in the
                              world where it can be stored safely. The
                              United States and Germany alone have
                              accumulated more than 50,000 and
                              12,000 tonnes respectively, of highly
                              radioactive waste which has not yet been
                              disposed of securely. According to the U.S.
                              Environmental Protection Agency, it will
                              be at least 10,000 years before its threat to
                              public health is substantively reduced.

                              Equally troubling, the materials and
                              technology needed for nuclear energy can
                              also be used to produce nuclear weapons.
                              In a politically unstable world, spreading
                              nuclear capability is a dangerous course to
                              take.

                              Nuclear is no ‘easy’ technology. It requires
                              a highly sophisticated and trained staff,
                              and only works on a large scale, providing
                              power around the clock. It is certainly not a
                              viable way to provide electricity for the 1.4
                              billion people whom are currently denied
                              it10, many of whom live in remote places in
                              fragile states.

                              Nuclear power is also an extremely
                              expensive option. Before pouring billions
                              into creating a new generation of nuclear
                              power stations, we need to ask whether
                              that money would be better invested in
                              other, sustainable energy technologies.
                              10. IEA, World Energy Outlook (WEO), 2010, Paris




                              Map 3: Operational nuclear reactors
                              P. Hearn, Jr., T. Hare, et. al., Global GIS Database: Complete
                              Global Set, 2002                                                              Operational Nuclear Reactors




                                                                                                       WWF The Energy Report Page 19
“WE PREDICT, ON
WWF’S PERSPECTIVE
                                                THE BASIS OF MID-
                                                   RANGE CLIMATE-
Climate change threatens to undo
everything that conservation organizations
like WWF have achieved over the last



                                                         WARMING
half-century. Polar bears may make the
headlines, but in reality very few species
will be unaffected by a changing climate.
Many species could become extinct. Even



                                                    SCENARIOS FOR
entire ecosystems – such as coral reefs,
mountain habitats, and large blocks of
tropical rainforests such as the Amazon –
could completely disappear.

Many plants and animals that have adapted
to their environment over millions of years         2050, THAT 15–
                                                  37% OF SPECIES
are vulnerable to even slight changes in
temperature and rainfall. Warming and
acidifying seas threaten coral reefs and
krill – the basis of the marine food chain in



                                                  IN OUR SAMPLE
many parts of the world. Large mammals
like whales and elephants may be forced to
travel further in search of food, leaving the
safety of the protected areas that WWF and


                                                 OF REGIONS AND
others have fought so hard to secure.

As part of the interwoven web of life,



                                                     TAXA WILL BE
humans will not be immune to the
consequences of a changing climate.
WWF’s mission is to protect the
magnificent array of living things that


                                                    ‘COMMITTED TO
inhabit our planet and to create a healthy
and prosperous future in which humans
live in harmony with nature. Solving
the energy crisis is fundamental to this,


                                                      EXTINCTION’” *
whatever tough choices and challenges it
brings.

                                                     * Thomas C.D. et al, 2004, Extinction risk from climate
                                                     change. Nature, Vol 427, No. 8




WWF The Energy Report Page 20
© Kevin Schafer / WWF-Canon
       WWF PERSPECTIVE
           PART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT




WWF The Energy Report Page 21
Figure 3: World Energy Supply
    Source: The Ecofys Energy Scenario, December 2010




                                                        Map 4: Fossil Fuel and Renewable
                                                        Energy Potential
                                                        This OMA map is an artists’ impression showing
                                                        the abundance of Renewable Energy potentials.
                                                        It is not intended to claim exact values for
                                                        renewable energy potentials but represents a
                                                        rough estimate based on landmass.




WWF The Energy Report Page 22
100%1:POSSIBLE
                                                                                                                   PART THE ENERGY REPORT
                                                term return. While thousands                    projected increases
100% POSSIBLE                                   of houses throughout the world,
                                                especially in Germany and
                                                                                                in population, long-
                                                                                                distance travel and
                                                Scandinavia, have been built to                 increased economic
Switching to a fully renew-                     “passive house” standards that                  wealth – it does not
able energy supply by 2050 is                   require almost no energy for                    demand radical changes
achievable, but there are chal-                 heating and cooling, many more                  to the way we live.
lenges to overcome.                             construction projects follow
                                                old-fashioned, energy-inefficient               The scenario detailed
The global energy crisis is a daunting          designs.                                        by Ecofys for this report
challenge. Yet we do not have to look far for                                                   is not the only solution,
the solutions. Energy derived from the sun,     Moving to a fully renewable                     nor is it intended
the wind, the Earth’s heat, water and the       energy future by 2050 is a radical              to be a prescriptive
sea has the potential to meet the world’s       departure from humanity’s                       plan. Indeed, it raises
electricity needs many times over, even         current course. It is an ambitious              a number of major
allowing for fluctuations in supply and         goal. But WWF believes that it is               challenges and difficult
demand. We can greatly reduce the amount        a goal we can and must achieve.                 questions – particularly
of energy we use through simple measures        This conviction led us to establish             for a conservation
like insulating buildings, recycling            a collaborative partnership                     organization like WWF
materials and installing efficient biomass      with Ecofys, one of the world’s                 – which we will discuss
stoves. Biomass from waste, crops and           leading climate and energy                      in more detail on the
forest resources has potential to provide a     consultancies. We commissioned                  following pages. To
renewable source of energy – although this      Ecofys to assess whether it would               realize our vision of a
raises significant social and environmental     be possible to secure a fully                   100 per cent renewable
issues, which we will discuss later in this     renewable, sustainable energy                   and sustainable energy
report.                                         supply for everyone on the planet               supply, we need to
                                                by 2050.                                        further advance the
Around the world, people are taking steps                                                       Ecofys scenario; and
in the right direction. In 2009, China          The Ecofys scenario, which forms                we propose some of the
added 37GW of renewable energy, bringing        the second part of this report, is              social and technological
its total renewable capacity to 226GW           the most ambitious analysis of                  changes that could help
– equivalent to four times the capacity         its kind to date. It demonstrates               us do this.
required to satisfy the total peak electrical   that it is technically feasible to
power consumption of Great Britain11 or         supply everyone on the planet in                In presenting the Ecofys
over twice the total electric capacity of       2050 with the energy they need,                 scenario, WWF aims
Africa!12 In Europe and the U.S., more than     with 95 per cent of this energy                 to show that a fully
half of all new power capacity installed        coming from renewable sources.                  renewable energy future
in 2009 came from renewable sources.            This would reduce greenhouse                    is not an unattainable
In the developing world, more than 30           gas emissions from the energy                   utopia. It is technically
million households have their own biogas        sector by about 80 per cent while               and economically
generators for cooking and lighting. Over       taking account of residual land-                possible, and there are
160 million use “improved” biomass stoves,      based emissions from bioenergy                  concrete steps we can
which are more efficient and produce            production.                                     take – starting right
less greenhouse gas and other pollutants.                                                       now – to achieve it.
Solar water heating is used by 70 million       The task ahead is, of course,
households around the world. Wind power         a huge one, raising major
                                                                                                11. Figures for UK energy demand
capacity has grown by 70 per cent, and          challenges. However, the                        come from the National Grid’s website:
                                                                                                http://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/
solar power (PV) by a massive 190 per cent      scenario Ecofys has mapped out                  Electricity/Data/Demand+Data/

in the last two years (2008 and 2009).          is practically possible. It is based            12. EIA World Electric Data 2006
                                                                                                http://www.eia.doe.gov/iea/elec.html

During the same period, total investment        only on the technologies the                    13. Renewables 2010 Global Status
                                                                                                Report, REN 21.
into all renewables has increased from          world already has at its disposal,
about $US 100 billion in 2007 to more           and is realistic about the rate at
than $US 150 billion in                         which these can be brought up
200913.                                         to scale. Although significant
                                                investment will be required, the
But the pace of change is far too slow.         economic outlay is reasonable,
Non-hydro renewables still only comprise a      with net costs never rising above
mere 3 per cent of all electricity consumed.    2 per cent of global GDP. The
Huge quantities of fossil fuels continue to     Ecofys scenario accounts for
be extracted and used, and global carbon
emissions are still rising. Government
subsidies and private investments in            “WE CAN REDUCE OUR RELIANCE ON
fossil fuels and nuclear power ventures
still vastly outweigh those into renewable      FOSSIL FUELS BY 70% BY 2040”*
energy and energy efficiency, even though       * Source: The Ecofys Energy Scenario, December 2010
the latter would give a far greater long-
                                                                                                WWF The Energy Report Page 23
THE ECOFYS SCENARIO IN
A NUTSHELL
                      14



In 2050, energy demand is 15 per cent           viable – primarily in providing      start to outweigh the
lower than in 2005. Although population,        fuels for aeroplanes, ships          costs. If oil prices rise
industrial output, passenger travel             and trucks, and in industrial        faster than predicted,
and freight transport continue to rise          processes that require very high     and if we factor in the
as predicted, ambitious energy-saving           temperatures. We can meet            costs of climate change
measures allow us to do more with               part of this demand from waste       and the impact of fossil
less. Industry uses more recycled and           products, but it would still be      fuels on public health,
energy-efficient materials, buildings are       necessary to grow sustainable        the pay-off occurs much
constructed or upgraded to need minimal         biofuel crops and take more wood     earlier.
energy for heating and cooling, and there is    from well-managed forests to
a shift to more efficient forms of transport.   meet demand. Careful land-use         14. A table summarising all energy data
                                                                                     is provided on pages 231 and 232 of the
                                                planning and better international    Ecofys scenario.                    500
As far as possible, we use electrical energy    cooperation and governance are
rather than solid and liquid fuels. Wind,       essential to ensure we do this
solar, biomass and hydropower are the           without threatening food and                                                        400
main sources of electricity, with solar and     water supplies or biodiversity, or




                                                                                                              Final Energy (EJ/a)
geothermal sources, as well as heat pumps       increasing atmospheric carbon.
providing a large share of heat for buildings
and industry. Because supplies of wind and      By 2050, we save nearly €4                                                          300
solar power vary, “smart” electricity grids     trillion per year through energy
have been developed to store and deliver        efficiency and reduced fuel costs
energy more efficiently.                        compared to a “business-as-
                                                usual” scenario. But big increases   “BY 2050, WE                                   200

Bioenergy (liquid biofuels and solid
biomass) is used as a last resort where
                                                in capital expenditure are needed
                                                first – to install renewable         SAVE NEARLY
other renewable energy sources are not          energy-generating capacity
                                                on a massive scale, modernize
                                                                                     €4 TRILLION                                    100

                                                electricity grids, transform         PER YEAR
                                                goods and public transport and
                                                improve the energy efficiency        THROUGH                                         0
                                                                                                                                          2000   201
                                                of our existing buildings. Our
                                                investments begin to pay off         ENERGY
                                                around 2040, when the savings
                                                                                     EFFICIENCY
                                                                                     AND REDUCED
                                                                                     FUEL COSTS”




Figure 4: World Energy Supply by Source.
The Ecofys Energy Scenario, December 2010




WWF The Energy Report Page 24
THE ECOFYS SCENARIO INPART 1:NUTSHELL
                            A THE ENERGY REPORT




15




                   Map 5: Global Population
                   Density 2010
                   Gridded Population of the World,
                   version 3 (GPWv3) and the Global
                   Rural-Urban Mapping Project
                   (GRUMP) produced by the Center
                   for International Earth Science
                   Information Network (CIESIN) of the
                   Earth Institute at Columbia University.


                   WWF The Energy Report Page 25
ENERGY
FOR A
NEW
FUTURE
WWF The Energy Report Page 26
© Chris Martin Bahr / WWF-Canon
       CHANGINGTHEREALITY




                                    © Chris Martin Bahr / WWF-Canon
            PART 1: ENERGY REPORT




WWF The Energy Report Page 27
Global potential of wind power
  THE ENERGY MIX
  Introducing the energy sources
  of the future
  At the moment, more than 80 per cent
  of our global energy comes from fossil
  fuels (oil, gas and coal). The remainder
  comes from nuclear and renewable
  energy sources, mainly hydropower, and
  traditional biomass fuels such as charcoal,
  which are often used inefficiently and
  unsustainably. Under the Ecofys scenario,
  fossil fuels, nuclear power and traditional
  biomass are almost entirely phased-out by
  2050, to be replaced with a more varied
  mixture of renewable energy sources.

  The Ecofys scenario takes into account each
  resource’s overall potential, current growth
  rates, selected sustainability criteria, and
  other constraints and opportunities such
  as variability of wind and solar sources.
  Technological breakthroughs, market
  forces and geographic location will all         Global potential of water power
  influence the ways in which renewable
  energies are developed and deployed, so
  the final energy breakdown could well look
  very different - while still based on 100 per
  cent sustainable renewables.




ENERGY OF
THE FUTURE



  WWF The Energy Report Page 28
THE PART 1: THE ENERGYMIX
                                                                                      ENERGY REPORT

“IN ORDER TO CUT GLOBAL GREENHOUSE
GAS EMISSIONS BY AT LEAST 80% BY 2050,
THE WORLD WILL NEED TO TRANSITION TO
RENEWABLE ENERGY”
Global potential of solar power and heat




Global potential of geothermal energy




                                           Figure 5: World Renewable Production Potential
                                           The Ecofys Energy Scenario, December 2010
                                           PV - Solar power from photovoltaics
                                           CSP - Concentrating solar power
                                           CSH - Concentrating solar high-temperature heat for industry
                                           Low T - Low temperature heat
                                           Hight T - High temperature heat

                                                                    WWF The Energy Report Page 29
Map 6: Global Solar Potential
NASA Map of World Solar Energy Potential




   WWF The Energy Report Page 30
© John E. Newby / WWF-Canon
                                                                                                  SOLAR PART 1: THE ENERGYMIX
                                                                                                         ENERGY REPORT




Solar energy
The sun provides an effectively unlimited        For developing countries, many
supply of energy that we can use to gener-       of which are in regions that
ate electricity and heat. At the moment, so-     receive the most sunlight, solar
lar energy technology contributes only 0.02      power is an especially important
per cent of our total energy supply, but this    resource. Solar energy can
proportion is growing fast. In the Ecofys        generate power in rural areas, on
scenario, solar energy supplies around half      islands, and other remote places
of our total electricity, half of our building   “off-grid”.
heating and 15 per cent of our industrial
heat and fuel by 2050, requiring an average      One obvious drawback of
annual growth rate much lower than the           solar power is that the supply
one currently sustained year on year.            varies. Photovoltaic cells don’t
                                                 function after dark – although
Solar energy provides light, heat and            most electricity is consumed in
electricity. Photovoltaic (PV) cells,            daylight hours when sunshine
which convert sunlight directly into             also peaks – and are less effective
electricity, can be integrated into devices      on cloudy days. But energy
(solar-powered calculators have been             storage is improving: CSP
around since the 1970s) or buildings, or         systems that can store energy in
installed on exposed areas such as roofs.        the form of heat - which can then
Concentrating solar power (CSP) uses             be used to generate electricity
mirrors or lenses to focus the sun’s rays        - for up to 15 hours, are now at
onto a small area where the heat can be          the design stage. This issue of
collected – for example to heat water,           variability can also be addressed
which can be used to generate electricity        by combining solar electricity
via a steam turbine or for direct heat. The      with other renewable electricity
same principle can be used on a small            sources.
scale to cook food or boil water. Solar
thermal collectors absorb heat from the


                                                     “IF 0.3% OF THE
sun and provide hot water. Combined
with improved insulation and window
architecture, direct sunshine can also be
used to heat buildings.


                                                 SAHARA DESERT WAS
                                                    A CONCENTRATED
                                                     SOLAR PLANT, IT
                                                   WOULD POWER ALL
                                                         OF EUROPE” *
                                                                              * Bridgette Meinhold, Desertec Foundation, 2009




                                                                                         WWF The Energy Report Page 31
WWF The Energy Report Page 32
© National Geographic Stock / Sarah Leen / WWF
                                                                                                     WIND PART 1: THE ENERGYMIX
                                                                                                           ENERGY REPORT




Wind energy
Wind power currently supplies around          Although wind farms have a very               wind developments
2 per cent of global electricity demand,      visible effect on the landscape,              need to be sensitively
with capacity more than doubling in the       their environmental impact is                 planned to minimise
last four years. In Denmark, wind already     minimal if they are planned                   the impact on marine
accounts for one-fifth of the country’s       sensitively. When turbines are                life and birds, and more
electricity production. Wind could meet a     sited on farmland, almost all                 research is needed
quarter of the world’s electricity needs by   of the land can still be used for             in this area. Floating
2050 if current growth rates continue –       agriculture, such as grazing or               turbines, which would
requiring an additional 1,000,000 onshore     crops. Unlike fossil fuel and                 have less impact on the
and 100,000 offshore turbines. Electricity    nuclear power plants, wind                    seabed and could be
from offshore wind is less variable, and      farms don’t need any water for                sited in deeper water,
turbines can be bigger.                       cooling. Both on- and offshore                are being trialled.




“AN ADDITIONAL 1,000,000
ONSHORE AND 100,000 OFFSHORE
WIND TURBINES WOULD MEET
A QUARTER OF THE WORLD’S
ELECTRICITY NEEDS BY 2050”*
                                                     * Source: The Ecofys Energy Scenario, December 2010




                                                                                            WWF The Energy Report Page 33
Geothermal energy
The ancient Romans used the heat from
beneath the Earth’s crust to heat buildings
and water, but only relatively recently have
we begun to rediscover its potential. Under
the Ecofys scenario, more than a third
of building heat comes from geothermal
sources by 2050. This is not restricted to
volcanically active areas: direct geothermal
heat can provide central heating for
buildings in almost all parts of the world15.

When temperatures are high enough,
geothermal energy can be used to generate
electricity and local heating, including
high-temperature heat for industrial
processes. Unlike wind or solar power,
which vary with the weather, geothermal
energy provides a constant supply of
electricity. Iceland already gets a quarter
of its electricity and almost all of its
heating from its molten “basement”. In the
Philippines, geothermal plants generate
almost a fifth of total electricity16.

Geothermal electric capacity is growing
at around 5 per cent each year; the Ecofys
analysis suggests we could reasonably
hope to at least double this growth rate
to provide about 4 per cent of our total
electricity in 2050. Geothermal would also
provide 5 per cent of our industrial heat
needs. Exploiting geothermal resources
will undoubtedly affect the surrounding
environment and the people who live
there. Geothermal steam or hot water used
for generating electricity contains toxic
compounds, but “closed loop” systems
can prevent these from escaping. If sites
are well chosen and systems are in place
to control emissions, they have little
negative environmental impact. In fact,
because geothermal plants need healthy
water catchment areas, they may actually
strengthen efforts to conserve surrounding
ecosystems17.
15.Direct geothermal heat should not be confused with heat pumps,
which are included on the demand-side in the Ecofys scenario and
provide heat in addition to geothermal energy.
16. http://www.geo-energy.org/pdf/reports/GEA_International_
Market_Report_Final_May_2010.pdf
17. See: Geothermal Projects in National Parks in the Philippines: The
Case of the Mt. Apo Geothermal Project,
Francis M. Dolor, PNOC Energy Development Corporation




WWF The Energy Report Page 34
GEOTHERMAL PART 1: THE ENERGYMIX
                             ENERGY REPORT




                                                © Michel Terrettaz / WWF-Canon
“BY 2050, MORE
  THAN A THIRD
    OF BUILDING
    HEAT COULD
    COME FROM
   GEOTHERMAL
      SOURCES ”*
      *Ecofys Energy Scenario, 2010




                    WWF The Energy Report Page 35
“IF WE COULD
HARNESS 0.1%
OF THE ENERGY IN
THE OCEAN, WE
COULD SUPPORT
THE ENERGY
NEEDS OF 15
BILLION PEOPLE”*




WWF The Energy Report Page 36
© Wild Wonders of Europe /Inaki Relanzon / WWF
                                                         OCEAN PART 1: THE ENERGYMIX
                                                                ENERGY REPORT




Ocean power
The motion of the ocean, through
both waves and tides, provides
a potentially vast and reliable
source of energy – but there are
significant challenges in convert-
ing it into electricity. Several pilot
projects are underway to harness
wave energy and to design sus-
tainable tidal systems, but this is a
relatively new technology. Recog-
nising this constraint, the Ecofys
scenario assumes that ocean pow-
er accounts for only 1 per cent of
global electricity supply by 2050.
However, it is likely to provide a
significantly larger percentage in
some particularly suitable areas,
like America’s Pacific Northwest
and the British Isles.

Wave and tidal power installa-
tions could affect the local marine
environment, coastal communi-
ties, as well as maritime indus-
tries such as shipping and fishing.
It is critical that appropriate sites
are selected and technologies de-
veloped that minimize any nega-
tive impacts.




* M.M. Bernitsas, et al., Vortex Induced Vibration Aquatic Clean Energy): A New
Concept in Generation of Clean and Renewable Energy from Fluid Flow” OMAE ’06




                                                 WWF The Energy Report Page 37
Hydropower
Hydropower is currently the world’s largest



                                                               “NEW
renewable power source, providing nearly
one-fifth of all electricity worldwide. Large-
scale hydropower plants store water in a
reservoir behind a dam, and then regulate


                                                               HYDROPOWER
the flow according to electricity demand.
Hydropower can provide a relatively
reliable source of power on demand,



                                                               SCHEMES WOULD
helping to balance variable sources like
wind and solar PV.

However, hydropower can have severe


                                                               NEED TO MEET
environmental and social impacts. By
changing water flow downstream, dams
threaten freshwater ecosystems and the
livelihoods of millions of people who


                                                               STRINGENT
depend on fisheries, wetlands, and regular
deposits of sediment for agriculture. They
fragment habitats and cut-off fish access



                                                               ENVIRONMENTAL
to traditional spawning grounds. Creating
reservoirs means flooding large areas of
land: 40-80 million people worldwide have
been displaced as a result of hydroelectric


                                                               SUSTAINABILITY
schemes18.

The Ecofys scenario reflects these



                                                               AND HUMAN
concerns with a relatively small increase in
hydropower. Hydropower would provide
12 per cent of our electricity in 2050
compared with 15 per cent today. New



                                                               RIGHTS CRITERIA”
hydropower schemes would need to meet
stringent environmental sustainability
and human rights criteria, and minimize
any negative impacts on river flows and
freshwater habitats.
18. http://www.internationalrivers.org/en/way-forward/world-
commission-dams/world-commission-dams-framework-brief-
introduction




WWF The Energy Report Page 38
© Hartmut Jungius / WWF-Canon
      HYDRO PART 1: THE ENERGYMIX
             ENERGY REPORT




WWF The Energy Report Page 39
© naturepl.com/ Tim Laman / WWF
Bio energy
Energy from biomass – materials derived         waste. Using these resources          deforestation, food
from living or recently living organisms,       up to a sustainable level has         and water shortages,
such as plant materials or animal waste – is    other environmental benefits,         and other social and
potentially the most challenging part of the    such as cutting methane and           environmental impacts,
Ecofys scenario. Bioenergy comes from a         nitrogen emissions and water          so must be considered
large variety of sources and is used in many    pollution from animal slurry, and     with utmost care.
different ways. Wood and charcoal have          reducing the need for landfill. In
traditionally provided the main source of       developing countries, more than       With an expected 2
fuel for cooking and heating for hundreds       30 million households have their      billion more mouths to
of millions of people in the developing         own biogas digesters for cooking      feed by 2050, it is vital
world. More recently, biofuels have begun       and lighting. Some residues and       that increased biofuel
to replace some petrol and diesel in            waste products are already used,      cultivation does not use
vehicles.                                       for example as soil conditioners;     land and water that is
                                                the Ecofys scenario accounts for      needed to grow food
In principle, biomass is a renewable            these.                                for people or to sustain
resource – it is possible to grow new plants                                          biodiversity. This is no
to replace the ones we use. Greenhouse          The second major source of            easy challenge. While
gas emissions are lower than from fossil        biomass comes from forests.           Ecofys has applied a
fuels, provided there is enough regrowth        According to the Ecofys scenario,     series of safeguards in
to absorb the carbon dioxide released, and      we will need more than 4.5 billion    its analysis, land and
good management practices are applied.          cubic metres of wood products         water implications of
Bioenergy also has potential to provide         for energy purposes by 2050           bioenergy feedstock
sustainable livelihoods for millions of         coming from harvesting and            production will need
people, particularly in Africa, Asia and        processing residues, wood waste       further research,
Latin America. However, if produced             and “complementary fellings”          especially at the
unsustainably its environmental and social      – the difference between the          landscape level.
impacts can be devastating. We need             amount of wood we use and the
comprehensive policies and mandatory            maximum amount that we could          A possible long-term
certification to ensure bioenergy is            sustainably harvest in forests that   alternative source
produced to the highest standards.              are already used commercially.        of high-density fuel
                                                This is preferable to taking          included in this scenario
Although the Ecofys scenario favours            wood from virgin forests and          is algae. Algae can
other renewable resources wherever              disturbing important habitats,        be grown in vats of
possible, there are some applications where     although more intensive forestry      saltwater or wastewater
bioenergy is currently the only suitable        is bound to affect biodiversity.      on land not suitable for
replacement for fossil fuels. Aviation,         In addition, some of the biomass      agriculture. Large-scale
shipping and long-haul trucking require         traditionally used for heating and    cultivation of algae for
liquid fuels with a high energy density;        cooking in the developing world,      biofuel is currently in
they cannot, with current technology and        which will largely be replaced by     development. In the
fuelling infrastructure, be electrified or      renewable energy sources such         Ecofys scenario, algae
powered by hydrogen. Some industrial            as solar energy, can also be used     begins to appear as a
processes, such as steel manufacturing,         for more efficient bioenergy uses.    viable energy source
require fuels not only for their energy         All the same, meeting demand          around 2030, and only
content, but as feedstocks with specific        sustainably will be a huge            a fraction of its potential
material properties. By 2050, 60 per cent       challenge.                            is included by 2050.
of industrial fuels and heat will come from
biomass. 13 per cent of building heat will      Bioenergy crops provide a             The apparent need for
come from biomass and some biomass will         possible source of liquid fuel        large amounts of land
still be needed in the electricity mix (about   – either vegetable oils from          for bioenergy is the
13 per cent), for balancing purposes with       plants such as rapeseed, or in        aspect of the Ecofys
other renewable energy technologies.            the form of ethanol derived from      scenario that produces
                                                crops high in sugar, starch or        the hardest challenges
We can derive a significant proportion of       cellulose. The Ecofys scenario        and raises the hardest
the bioenergy needs in the Ecofys scenario      suggests we will need around          questions. We will
from products that would otherwise go to        250 million hectares of bioenergy     discuss these further on
waste. These include some plant residues        crops – equal to about one-           pages 60-61.
from agriculture and food processing;           sixth of total global cropland
sawdust and residues from forestry and          – to meet projected demand.
wood processing; manure; and municipal          This has the potential to cause

WWF The Energy Report Page 40
© naturepl.com/ Tim Laman / WWF




                                                                               BIOENERGY MIX
                                                                                  PART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT




                                  Map 7: World biomass potential   WWF The Energy Report Page 41
                                  Artist’s impression, OMA
THE
CHAL-
LENGES
AHEAD
WWF The Energy Report Page 42
© Simon de TREY-WHITE / WWF-UK
                                                       CHALLENGESENERGY REPORT
                                                             PART 1: THE
                                                                         AHEAD



THE CHALLENGES AHEAD
The Ecofys analysis shows that the world
can technically meet its energy needs from
renewable sources by 2050. But it throws
up some difficult challenges – and not just
technical ones. The social, environmental,
economic and political issues this report
raises are equally pressing.

On the technical side, two key factors will
enable the world to meet its energy needs
from renewable sources: (i) We need
to reduce demand by improving energy
efficiency and reducing wasteful use of
energy; and (ii) because electricity and
heat are the forms of energy most easily
generated by renewables, we need to
maximize the use of electricity and direct
heat, with improvements to electricity grids
to support this.

A sustainable energy future must be an
equitable one. Its impact on people and
nature will greatly depend on the way we
use our land, seas and water resources.
Changes in lifestyle also have a critical role
to play.

Moving to a renewable future will mean
rethinking our current finance systems. It
will also require innovation.

Local, national and regional governance
will need to be greatly strengthened to
secure an equitable energy future. We
need international cooperation and
collaboration on an unprecedented level
to bridge the gap between the energy-rich
and energy-poor, both within and between
countries.

These challenges are outlined on the
following pages.




                                                 WWF The Energy Report Page 43
ENERGY CONSERVATION
How can we do more while
using less energy?
Under the Ecofys scenario, global energy         In the developing world, more        The world will also need
demand in 2050 is 15 per cent lower than         than 160 million households now      to use less energy for
in 2005. This is in striking contrast to         use improved biomass cooking         transport. That means
“business-as-usual” projections, which           stoves. Simply using a ceramic       making more fuel-
predict energy demand will at least              lining instead of an all-metal       efficient models of all
double. This difference is not based on          design can improve efficiency        forms of transport, and
any reduction in activity – industrial           by up to a half. The stoves cost     operating them more
output, domestic energy use, passenger           little, reduce carbon emissions      effectively. Improved
travel and freight transport continue to         and deforestation from charcoal      air traffic management
grow, particularly in developing countries.      production, and have immense         could reduce congestion
Instead, reductions come from using              health benefits. Even more           and allow planes to
energy as efficiently as possible.               efficient are solar cookers, which   follow more efficient
                                                 simply use and concentrate the       routes and landing
Energy conservation is one of the                heat from the sun. Distributed       approaches, making a
prerequisites of a future powered by             widely enough, these small-scale     small but significant
renewables. We will not be able to meet          solutions add up to a significant    reduction in aviation
the needs of our planet’s expected nine          reduction in energy demand.          fuel demands. Similarly,
billion inhabitants if we continue to use it                                          better port, route and
as wastefully as we do today. It is the single   The world already has the            weather planning, along
most important element in the Ecofys             architectural and construction       with reduced speeds,
scenario.                                        expertise to create buildings that   can significantly reduce
                                                 require almost no conventional       fuel use in cargo ships.
In every sector, solutions already exist that    energy for heating or cooling,
can deliver the massive energy savings we        through airtight construction,       But we will also need to
need. The challenge will be in rolling them      heat pumps and sunlight. The         move to more efficient
out on a global scale as soon as possible.       Ecofys scenario foresees all         modes of transport;
                                                 new buildings achieving these        making greater use
In manufacturing, using recycled materials       standards by 2030.                   of buses, bikes, trams
greatly reduces energy consumption.                                                   and trains, sending
For example, making new products from            At the same time, we need to         more freight by rail
recovered aluminium instead of primary           radically improve the energy         and sea, and swapping
aluminium cuts total energy use by more          efficiency of our existing           short-haul flights for
than two-thirds. Stocks of materials that        buildings. We could reduce           high-speed trains.
take a lot of energy to produce, such as         heating needs by 60 per cent         Indeed, WWF would
steel and aluminium, have grown over the         by insulating walls, roofs           argue that we need to
past decades, making recycling and reusing       and ground floors, replacing         go further than this, by
materials increasingly viable. Finding           old windows and installing           reducing the number
alternatives to materials that take the most     ventilation systems that recover     and length of journeys
energy to produce, such as cement and            heat. Local solar thermal systems    we need to take – by
steel, will mean further energy savings.         and heat pumps would fulfil the      improving urban
                                                 remaining heating and hot water      planning, logistics
Product design also has considerable             needs. For all buildings to meet     and communication
implications for energy use. Making cars         these energy efficiency standards    technology, and
with lighter (although not weaker) frames        by 2050, we will need to retrofit    reassessing our
and with new materials, for example,             2-3 per cent of floor area every     priorities.
and producing smaller cars reduces both          year. This is ambitious, but
the need for energy-intensive steel in           not impossible – Germany has         The more energy we
manufacturing and their fuel consumption.        already achieved annual retrofit     save, the easier the
Despite some very innovative models              rates in this range.                 task of moving to a
on markets already, there is still huge                                               renewable energy future
potential to tap into much higher efficiency                                          will become. It is one
levels for all energy-hungry appliances.                                              area where everyone
                                                                                      can play a part.




WWF The Energy Report Page 44
© Michel Gunther / WWF-Canon
                                                      ENERGY CONSERVATION
                                                               PART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT




“THE GLOBAL
COST OF LIGHTING
IS $230 BILLION
PER YEAR.
MODERNIZING
WASTEFUL
TECHNOLOGY
COULD SAVE 60%”  *
* Mills, E. 2002, “The $230-billion Global Lighting Energy
Bill.“, International Association for Energy-Efficient
Lighting, Stockholm




                                                      DO MORE
                                                      WITH LESS

                                                   WWF The Energy Report Page 45
© National Geographic Stock/ Jim Richardson / WWF
“ENERGY
EFFICIENCY
AND
RENEWABLE
ENERGY CAN
REDUCE OUR
DEPENDENCE
ON FOSSIL
FUELS BY
70% BY
2040” *
* The Ecofys Energy Scenario, December 2010




WWF The Energy Report Page 46
© National Geographic Stock/ Jim Richardson / WWF




                                                                                                                                            ENERGY CONSERVATION
                                                                                                                                                     PART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT




                                                    WHAT NOW?
                                                    • We must introduce legally binding             • Energy taxation is a realistic      replace air travel as
                                                    minimum efficiency standards worldwide          option, particularly in wealthier     much as possible, and
                                                    for all products that consume energy,           countries. Taxes on petrol,           a maximum proportion
                                                    including buildings, along the lines of         electricity and fuels are already     of freight should be
                                                    the Japanese “Top Runner” scheme and            commonplace. Shifting taxes           delivered by rail.
                                                    the European EcoDesign requirements.            to products and cars that use         Sustainable and public
                                                    Governments, companies and experts              more energy will help to steer        transport modes for all
                                                    will need to agree standards based              demand toward more efficient          distances, particularly
                                                    on Best-Available-Technology (BAT)              alternatives.                         for rail-based transport,
                                                    benchmarks, which should be monitored                                                 must be made cheaper
                                                    and strengthened regularly.                     • Developing countries must           than road- and air-
                                                                                                    phase-out the inefficient use of      borne traffic.
                                                    • Energy conservation should be built into      traditional biomass, and pursue
                                                    every stage of product design. Wherever         alternatives such as improved         • Individuals,
                                                    possible we should use energy-efficient,        biomass cooking stoves, solar         businesses,
                                                    highly-durable and recyclable materials.        cookers and small-scale biogas        communities and
                                                    Alternatives to materials like cement, steel    digesters. Industrialized             nations all need to
                                                    and plastic that take a lot of energy to        countries should facilitate this by   be more aware of the
                                                    produce should be a focus for research and      providing financial assistance, as    energy they use, and try
                                                    development. We should adopt a “cradle          part of international development     to save energy wherever
                                                    to cradle” design philosophy, where all of      commitments and global efforts        possible. Driving more
                                                    a product’s components can be reused or         to reduce greenhouse gas              slowly and smoothly,
                                                    recycled once it reaches the end of its life.   emissions.                            buying energy-
                                                                                                                                          efficient appliances
                                                    • We need strict energy-efficiency criteria     • Substantial investment is           and switching them
                                                    for all new buildings, aiming toward near-      needed into public transport          off when not in use,
                                                    zero energy use, equivalent to “Passive         to provide convenient and             turning down heating
                                                    House” standards. Retrofitting rates            affordable energy-efficient           and air conditioning,
                                                    must increase quickly to improve the            alternatives to private cars. We      and increased reusing
                                                    energy efficiency of existing buildings.        particularly need to improve          and recycling are just
                                                    Governments must provide legislation and        rail infrastructure: high-speed       some ways to make a
                                                    incentives to enable this.                      trains, powered by electricity        contribution.
                                                                                                    from renewable sources, should




                                                                                                                                          WWF The Energy Report Page 47
CASE STUDY




   WWF The Energy Report Page 48
WWW.TOPTEN.INFO
                                                                              PART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT




               © National Geographic Stock / Tyrone Turner / WWF
                                                                   “WWF HELPED
                                                                   DEVELOP
                                                                   TOPTEN, AN
                                                                   ONLINE SEARCH
                                                                   TOOL THAT
                                                                   IDENTIFIES THE
                                                                   MOST ENERGY-
                                                                   EFFICIENT
                                                                   APPLIANCES
                                                                   ON THE
                                                                   MARKET”
                                                                   TopTen.info
                                                                   Consumers and retailers
                                                                   can put pressure on
                                                                   manufacturers to be
                                                                   more energy efficient
                                                                   through their buying
                                                                   choices. WWF helped
                                                                   develop Topten
                                                                   (www.topten.info),
                                                                   an online search tool
                                                                   that identifies the
                                                                   most energy-efficient
                                                                   appliances on the
                                                                   market. Discerning
                                                                   buyers can compare
                                                                   energy-efficiency ratings
                                                                   for a growing number
                                                                   of items, including cars
                                                                   and vans, household
                                                                   appliances, office
                                                                   equipment, lighting,
                                                                   water heaters and air
                                                                   conditioners. Topten
                                                                   now operates in 17
Figure XX.XX                                                       countries across Europe
                                                                   and has recently been
                                                                   launched in the USA
                                                                   and China.




                                                                   WWF The Energy Report Page 49
© Nigel Dickinson / WWF-Canon




WWF The Energy Report Page 50
© Nigel Dickinson / WWF-Canon




                                                                                                                                    ELECTRIFICATION
                                                                                                                                       PART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT




                                ELECTRIFICATION
                                Renewable sources could
                                provide effectively unlimited
                                power, but how do we switch
                                onto them?
                                The Ecofys scenario for a renewable energy      of electricity grids to deliver it.   adjust electricity flow
                                future depends upon using electrical power      Our existing grid infrastructure      – for example, by
                                from clean, renewable sources in place of       can only manage a limited             tweaking thermostat
                                fossil fuels and nuclear wherever possible.     amount of these variable,             temperatures – to cope
                                Currently, electricity makes up less than       supply-driven sources. Grids          with spikes in demand.
                                one-fifth of our total final energy demand;     need to keep electrical voltage       We could also take
                                by 2050, under the Ecofys scenario, it          and frequency steady to avoid         advantage of times
                                accounts for almost half. Cars and trains,      dangerous power surges, and           when supply outstrips
                                for example, will become fully electrified,     need the capacity to meet peaks       demand to charge
                                while other energy uses (such as fuel to        in demand. Today, we keep some        car batteries and to
                                heat buildings) will be minimized.              power stations, notably coal and      generate hydrogen fuel.
                                                                                nuclear, working around the
                                Using more renewable electricity presents       clock to provide a permanent          At the same time, we
                                several challenges. First, of course, we need   supply of electricity (or “base       need to bring electricity
                                to generate it. That will mean massively        load”). These power stations          to those who are not
                                increasing our capacity to produce power        cannot simply be switched-off         connected to the grid
                                from the renewable resources with the least     when renewable energy supplies        – particularly in rural
                                environmental impact – through wind,            are high, meaning some of this        areas in developing
                                solar and geothermal power technologies in      energy goes to waste.                 countries. We can
                                particular. While we will need many more                                              do this by extending
                                large-scale renewable power plants, we will     The Ecofys analysis estimates         existing grids, or
                                also generate more power at a local level,      that networks in industrialized       generating power
                                using solar PV roof tiles, water wheels and     countries could take about 20-30      at the household
                                individual wind turbines, for example.

                                We are going to need massive investment
                                                                                         WWF suggests
                                                                                per cent of total electricity from
                                                                                variable sources without further
                                                                                modernization. At a conservative
                                                                                                                      or community level
                                                                                                                      through solar, micro-
                                                                                                                      hydro, wind power or

                                                                                         white borders and
                                to extend and modernize our electricity         estimate, this will rise to 60        small-scale biomass
                                grids to cope with increased loads and          per cent by 2050 through              plants. Providing the
                                different energy sources. We need to            improvements in technology            1.4 billion who have

                                                                                         background
                                transmit power efficiently from offshore        and grid management. The              no reliable electricity19
                                wind turbines, desert solar parks or            other 40 per cent would come          with a basic supply
                                remote geothermal plants to urban               from hydropower, biomass,             of 50-100 kWh per
                                centres – while minimizing the impact of        geothermal electricity and CSP        year would require
                                new power lines or subterranean cables.         with storage.                         investments of about
                                Efficient international networks will also                                            €25 billion per year
                                help balance variable renewable sources         The combination of large              between now and
                                from different regions. Within Europe, for      (“super”) and “smart” grids holds     203020 , or 0.05 per cent
                                example, wind and ocean power from the          the key. Power companies and          of global GDP.
                                North Sea area could complement Alpine          consumers will get information
                                hydropower and solar power from the             on energy supply, and price,          The electricity networks
                                Mediterranean and even North Africa.            to help manage demand. Put            that power our world
                                                                                simply, it will be cheaper to         are one of the great
                                While solar and wind have the potential to      run your washing machine              engineering feats of
                                supply an effectively unlimited amount of       when the wind is blowing or           the 20th century. The
                                power, this is constrained by the capacity      the sun is shining. Households,       work we need to do to
                                                                                offices or factories would            modernize them over
                                                                                programme smart meters to             the coming decades will
                                                                                operate certain appliances or         be one of the great feats
                                                                                processes automatically when          of the 21st.
                                                                                power supplies are plentiful.
                                                                                                                      19. IEA, World Energy Outlook (WEO),
                                                                                Utility companies would               2010, Paris .
                                                                                                                      20. IEA, World Energy Outlook (WEO),
                                                                                                                      2009, Paris




                                                                                                                      WWF The Energy Report Page 51
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The energy-report-2011

  • 1. THIS REPORT HAS BEEN OMA AMO PRODUCED IN COLLABORATION WITH: REPORT INT 2011 THE RENEWABLE ENERGY BY 2050 100% ENERGY REPORT
  • 2. WWF WWF is one of the world’s largest and most experienced independent conservation organizations, with over 5 million supporters and a global Network active in more than 100 countries. WWF’s mission is to stop the degradation of the planet’s natural environment and to build a future in which humans live in harmony with nature, by conserving the world’s bio- logical diversity, ensuring that the use of renewable natural resources is sustainable, and promoting the reduction of pollution and wasteful consumption. ECOFYS Established in 1984 with the mission of achieving a sustainable energy supply for everyone, Ecofys has become a leader in energy saving, sustainable energy solutions and climate policies. The unique synergy between our fields of competence is the key to this success. We create smart, effective, practical and sustainable solutions for and with our clients. OMA The Office for Metropolitan Architecture (OMA) is a leading international partnership practicing contemporary architecture, urbanism, and cultural analysis. The counterpart to OMA’s architectural practice is the company’s research-based think tank, AMO. While OMA remains dedicated to the realization of buildings and master plans, AMO operates in areas beyond the boundaries of architecture and urbanism such as media, politics, sociology, technology, energy, fashion, publishing and graphic design. WWF International Avenue du Mont-Blanc 1196 Gland Switzerland www.panda.org Ecofys P.O. Box 8408 3503 RK Utrecht The Netherlands www.ecofys.com OMA Heer Bokelweg 149 3032 AD Rotterdam The Netherlands www.oma.eu This report was made possible by the generous support of ENECO. ISBN 978-2-940443-26-0 Front cover photo: © Wild Wonders of Europe / Inaki Relanzon / WWF
  • 3. CONTRIBUTORS Editor in Chief: Stephan Singer Technical Editor: Jean-Philippe Denruyter Principal Writer Part 1: Barney Jeffries Editorial Team Part 1: Owen Gibbons, Ellen Hendrix, Martin Hiller, Richard McLellan, Donald Pols With special thanks for review and contributions from: Keith Allott, Jason Anderson, Bryn Baker, Jessica Battle, Esther Blom, Kellie Caught, Kirsty Clough, Keya Chatterjee, Thomas Duveau, Wendy Elliott, Magnus Emfel, Lynn Englum, Mariangiola Fabbri, Ian Gray, Bart Geneen, Inna Gritsevich, Johan van de Gronden, May Guerraoui, Piers Hart, Joerg Hartmann, Patrick Hofstetter, Richard Holland, Yanli Hou, Nora Ibrahim, Andrea Kaszewski, Sampsa Kiianmaa, Alexey Kokorin, Li Lifeng, Pete Lockley, Paul Maassen, Yosuke Masako, David McLaughlin, László Máthé, Elisabeth McLellan, Martin von Mirbach, Kevin Ogorzalek, Stuart Orr, Mireille Perrin, Duncan Pollard, Voahirana Randriambola, Georg Rast, Peter Roberntz, Rafael Senga, Shirish Sinha, Gerald Steindlegger, Rod Taylor, Ivan Valencia, Arianna Vitali, Heikki Willstedt, Mattias de Woul, Richard Worthington, Naoyuki Yamagishi Stefan Henningson Partner organizations Ecofys (Part 2) Principal Writers: Yvonne Deng, Stijn Cornelissen, Sebastian Klaus Principal Reviewers: Kees van der Leun, Bart Wesselink, Kornelis Blok (See complete list of contributing authors, reviewers and advising experts on page 91 Part 2.) The OMA-AMO team was led by Partner Reinier de Graaf and Associate Laura Baird Team: Tanner Merkeley, Federico D’Amico Vilhelm Christensen, Amelia McPhee, Tim Cheung, Dicle Uzunyayla WWF The Energy Report Page 3
  • 5. © Fritz Pölking / WWF CONTENTS 10 Recommendations for a 100% Renewable Energy Future 8 PART 1 Introduction 11 A renewable energy future: why we need it 13 Energy facts we have to face 13 100% possible 23 The Ecofys scenario in a nutshell 24 The energy mix 29 The challenges ahead 43 • Energy conservation 44 • Electrification 51 • Equity 56 • Land and sea use 60 • Lifestyle 66 • Finance 72 • Innovation 78 • The future is in your hands 84 PART 2 The Ecofys energy scenario 87 Executive summary 92 Introduction 103 Approach 107 Demand 115 Supply – Renewable energy (excl. bioenergy) 139 Supply – Sustainable bioenergy 157 Investments and savings 192 Policy considerations 217 Conclusions 229 APPENDICES 231 REFERENCES 242 GLOSSARY 252 WWF The Energy Report Page 5
  • 6. Map 1: A new perspective on the world - looking towards 2050. Global GIS Database: Complete GlobaL Set, 2002 © AMO WWF The Energy Report Page 6
  • 7. “By 2050, we could get all the energy we need from renewable sources. This report shows that such a transition is not only possible but also cost-effective, providing energy that is affordable for all and producing it in ways that can be sustained by the global economy and the planet. The transition will present significant challenges, but I hope this report will inspire governments and business to come to grips with those challenges and, at the same time, to move boldly to bring the renewable economy into reality. There is nothing more important to our ability to create a sustainable future.” James P. Leape Director General WWF International WWF The Energy Report Page 7
  • 8. 10 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR A 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY FUTURE 1. CLEAN ENERGY: Promote only the most efficient products. Develop existing and new renewable energy sources to provide enough clean energy for all by 2050. 2. GRIDS: Share and exchange clean energy through grids and trade, making the best use of sustainable energy resources in different areas. 3. ACCESS: End energy poverty: provide clean electricity and promote sustainable practices, such as efficient cook stoves, to everyone in developing countries. 4. MONEY: Invest in renewable, clean energy and energy-efficient products and buildings. 5. FOOD: Stop food waste. Choose food that is sourced in an efficient and sustainable way to free up land for nature, sustainable forestry and biofuel production. Everyone has an equal right to healthy levels of protein in their diet – for this to happen, wealthier people need to eat less meat. WWF The Energy Report Page 8
  • 9. © Martin Harvey / WWF-Canon RECOMMENDATIONS PART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT 6. MATERIALS: Reduce, re-use, recycle – to minimize waste and save energy. Develop durable 7. materials. And avoid things we don’t need. TRANSPORT: Provide incentives to encourage greater use of public transport, and to reduce the distances people and goods travel. Promote electrification wherever possible, and support research into hydrogen and other alternative fuels for shipping and aviation. 8. TECHNOLOGY: Develop national, bilateral and multilateral action plans to promote research and development in energy efficiency and renewable energy. 9. SUSTAINABILITY: Develop and enforce strict sustainability criteria that ensure renewable energy is compatible with environmental and development goals. 10. AGREEMENTS: Support ambitious climate and energy agreements to provide global guidance and promote global cooperation on renewable energy and efficiency efforts. WWF The Energy Report Page 9
  • 10. © NASA “WWF HAS A VISION OF A WORLD THAT IS POWERED BY 100 PER CENT RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS CENTURY” WWF The Energy Report Page 10
  • 11. © NASA INTRODUCTION PART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT 500 400 Final Energy (EJ/a) 300 200 100 0 2000 Figure 1 Evolution of energy supply in the Energy Scenario, showing the key developments. Source: The Ecofys Energy Scenario, December 2010. 100 PER CENT RENEWABLE ENERGY BY 2050 WWF has a vision of a world that is The Ecofys scenario raises a The world needs to powered by 100 per cent renewable energy number of significant issues and seriously consider sources by the middle of this century. challenges. The Energy Report what will be required Unless we make this transition, the investigates the most critically to transition to a world is most unlikely to avoid predicted important political, economic, sustainable energy escalating impacts of climate change. environmental and social choices future, and to find and challenges – and encourages solutions to the But is it possible to achieve 100 per cent their further debate. dilemmas raised in renewable energy supplies for everyone this report. Answering on the planet by 2050? WWF called How are we going to provide for these challenges - the upon the expertise of respected energy all of the world’s future needs, solutions to the energy consultancy Ecofys to provide an answer on energy, food, fibre, water and needs of current and to this question. In response, Ecofys has others, without running into future generations produced a bold and ambitious scenario - such huge issues as: conflicting – is one of the most which demonstrates that it is technically demands on land/water important, challenging possible to achieve almost 100 per cent availability and use; rising, and and urgent political renewable energy sources within the next in some cases, unsustainable tasks ahead. four decades. The ambitious outcomes consumption of commodities; of this scenario, along with all of the nuclear waste; and regionally assumptions, opportunities, detailed data appropriate and adequate and sources, are presented as Part 2 of this energy mixes? report. WWF The Energy Report Page 11
  • 12. “1.4 BILLION PEOPLE HAVE NO ACCESS TO RELIABLE ELECTRICITY ” WWF The Energy Report Page 12
  • 13. RENEWABLE ENERGY FUTURE PART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT A RENEWABLE ENERGY FUTURE: WHY WE NEED IT © Cat Holloway / WWF-Canon Switching to renewable At the same time, more energy isn’t just the than 2.7 billion people are dependent on best choice. It’s our traditional bioenergy only option. (mainly from wood, crop residues and The way we produce and use animal dung) as their energy today is not sustainable. main source of cooking Our main fossil fuel sources – oil, and heating fuel2 . coal and gas – are finite natural This is often harvested resources, and we are depleting unsustainably, them at a rapid rate. Furthermore causing soil erosion they are the main contributors to and increasing the climate change, and the race to risk of flooding, as the last ‘cheap’ fossil resources well as threatening evokes disasters for the natural biodiversity and adding environment as seen recently to greenhouse gas in the case of the BP oil spill emissions. Traditional in the Gulf of Mexico. In the stoves are also a developing world, regional and significant health local desertification is caused by problem: the World depletion of fuelwood and other Health Organization biomass sources that are often (WHO) estimates that used very inefficiently causing 2.5 million women substantive in-door pollution and young children die and millions of deaths annually. prematurely each year A fully sustainable renewable from inhaling their power supply is the only way fumes3. With many we can secure energy for all and developing societies avoid environmental catastrophe. becoming increasingly urban, air quality in cities will decline ENERGY FACTS WE further. HAVE TO FACE Finite and increasingly expensive fossil fuels are not the answer for 1.4 billion people have developing countries. no access to reliable But renewable energy sources offer the electricity1. potential to transform the quality of life and While most of us take energy for improve the economic granted as a basic right, a fifth of prospects of billions. the world’s population still has no access to reliable electricity – drastically reducing their chances 1. IEA, World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2010, Paris of getting an education and 2. IEA, World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2010, Paris. earning a living. As energy prices 3. http://www.iaea.org/ Publications/Magazines/Bulletin/ increase, the world’s poor will Bull442/44204002429.pdf continue to be excluded. WWF The Energy Report Page 13
  • 14. “IF EVERYONE CONSUMED AS MUCH ENERGY AS THE AVERAGE SINGAPOREAN AND U.S. RESIDENT, THE WORLD’S OIL RESERVES WOULD BE DEPLETED IN 9 YEARS”* Figure 2: World oil production by type http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/docs/weo2010/key_graphs.pdf OIL AND GAS ARE RUNNING OUT Supplies of cheap, conventional oil and gas Energy companies are Processing and using are declining while our energy demands increasingly looking to fill the unconventional fossil continue to increase. It is clear that our gap with unconventional sources sources produces reliance on fossil fuels cannot continue of oil and gas, such as shale gas, large quantities of indefinitely. With the world’s population oil from deep water platforms greenhouse gasses and projected to increase to over nine billion like BP’s Deepwater Horizon, chemical pollution, over the next 40 years, “business-as-usual” or the Canadian tar sands. But and puts unsustainable is not an option. these come at an unprecedented demands on our According to the International Energy cost – and not just in economic freshwater resources, Agency (IEA)4 , production from known oil terms. Many reserves are located with severe impacts and gas reserves will fall by around 40-60 in some of the world’s most on biodiversity and per cent by 2030. Yet the developed world’s pristine places – such as tropical ecosystem services. thirst for energy is unabated, while demand rainforests and the Arctic – that is rocketing in emerging economies, such are vital for biodiversity and the 4. IEA, World Energy Outlook (WEO), 2009, Paris. as China, India and Brazil. If everyone ecosystem services that we all 5. Per capita oil consumption in the U.S. and Canada is about 3 tons annually, in the world used oil at the same rate as depend on, from freshwater to a in Saudi Arabia about 5 tons and in the average Saudi, Singaporean or U.S. healthy atmosphere. Extracting Singapore 10 tons. Proven oil reserves are estimated at about 205 billion tons resident, the world’s proven oil reserves them is difficult and dangerous, in 2010 (BP, Statistical Review, 2010) would be used up in less than 10 years5. *Proven oil reserves are estimated 1,349 Competition for fossil fuel resources is and costly to businesses, billion barrels. Oil consumption in the U. S. 18.86 million barrels per day. a source of international tension, and communities and economies World population is 6.9 billion. potentially conflict. when things go wrong. WWF The Energy Report Page 14
  • 15. OIL AND GAS ARE RUNNING REPORT PART 1: THE ENERGY OUT FOSSIL FUEL SOURCING Map 2: Oil Claims in Africa : P. Hearn, Jr., T. Hare, et. al., Global GIS Database: Complete Global Set, 2002 © AMO WWF The Energy Report Page 15
  • 16. CLIMATE CHANGE IS ALREADY A REALITY Even if fossil fuel supplies were infinite, we The global energy sector holds would have another compelling reason for the key. It is responsible for an urgent switch to renewable around two-thirds of global energy: climate change. Hundreds of greenhouse gas emissions, millions of people worldwide are already an amount that is increasing affected by water shortages, crop failures, at a faster rate than for any tropical diseases, flooding and extreme other sector. Coal is the most weather events – conditions that are carbon-intensive fuel and the likely to be made worse by increasing single largest source of global concentrations of greenhouse gasses in the greenhouse gas emissions. Earth’s atmosphere. The WHO estimates Embracing renewable energy, that climate change is already causing along with ambitious energy- more than 150,000 deaths a year6. saving measures, is the best way to achieve the rapid emissions Global warming threatens the fragile reductions we need. balance of our planet’s ecosystems, and could consign a quarter of all species 6. http://www.who.int/globalchange/news/ fsclimandhealth/en/index.html to extinction7. The loss of ecological 7. http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v427/ n6970/abs/nature02121.html services from forests, coral reefs and other 8. For a report on the effects of climate change on ecosystem services, see The Economics of Ecosystems ecosystems will also have huge economic and Biodiversity (TEEB) TEEB Climate Issues Update. September 2009 implications8.The costs of adapting to 9. Martin Parry, Nigel Arnell, Pam Berry, David climate change will be colossal: a recent Dodman, Samuel Fankhauser, Chris Hope, Sari Kovats, Robert Nicholls, David Satterthwaite, Richard Tiffin, report suggests that by 2030, the world Tim Wheeler (2009) Assessing the Costs of Adaptation to Climate Change: A Review of the UNFCCC and may need to spend more than €200 billion Other Recent Estimates, International Institute for Environment and Development and Grantham Institute a year on measures such as building flood for Climate Change, London. defences, transporting water for agriculture and rebuilding infrastructure affected by climate change9.To avoid devastating consequences, we must keep eventual global warming below 1.5°C compared to pre-Industrial temperatures. To have a chance of doing that, global greenhouse gas emissions need to start falling within the next five years, and we need to cut them by at least 80 per cent globally by 2050 (from 1990 levels) – and even further beyond that date. WWF The Energy Report Page 16
  • 17. © Yifei ZHANG / WWF-Canon CHANGINGTHEREALITY PART 1: ENERGY REPORT CLIMATE CHANGE IS ALREADY A REALITY WWF The Energy Report Page 17
  • 18. © Donald Miller / WWF-Canon “NUCLEAR IS AN UNETHICAL AND EXPENSIVE OPTION” WWF The Energy Report Page 18
  • 19. © Donald Miller / WWF-Canon 10,000 YRS OF HARMFUL ENERGY REPORT PART 1: THE WASTE NUCLEAR WASTE WILL BE DANGEROUS FOR 10,000 YEARS For some, nuclear power is seen to be a part of the solution to the energy crisis. It produces large-scale electricity with low carbon emissions – although mining and enriching uranium is very energy intensive. But we cannot escape the reality that nuclear fission produces dangerous waste that remains highly toxic for thousands of years – and there is nowhere in the world where it can be stored safely. The United States and Germany alone have accumulated more than 50,000 and 12,000 tonnes respectively, of highly radioactive waste which has not yet been disposed of securely. According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, it will be at least 10,000 years before its threat to public health is substantively reduced. Equally troubling, the materials and technology needed for nuclear energy can also be used to produce nuclear weapons. In a politically unstable world, spreading nuclear capability is a dangerous course to take. Nuclear is no ‘easy’ technology. It requires a highly sophisticated and trained staff, and only works on a large scale, providing power around the clock. It is certainly not a viable way to provide electricity for the 1.4 billion people whom are currently denied it10, many of whom live in remote places in fragile states. Nuclear power is also an extremely expensive option. Before pouring billions into creating a new generation of nuclear power stations, we need to ask whether that money would be better invested in other, sustainable energy technologies. 10. IEA, World Energy Outlook (WEO), 2010, Paris Map 3: Operational nuclear reactors P. Hearn, Jr., T. Hare, et. al., Global GIS Database: Complete Global Set, 2002 Operational Nuclear Reactors WWF The Energy Report Page 19
  • 20. “WE PREDICT, ON WWF’S PERSPECTIVE THE BASIS OF MID- RANGE CLIMATE- Climate change threatens to undo everything that conservation organizations like WWF have achieved over the last WARMING half-century. Polar bears may make the headlines, but in reality very few species will be unaffected by a changing climate. Many species could become extinct. Even SCENARIOS FOR entire ecosystems – such as coral reefs, mountain habitats, and large blocks of tropical rainforests such as the Amazon – could completely disappear. Many plants and animals that have adapted to their environment over millions of years 2050, THAT 15– 37% OF SPECIES are vulnerable to even slight changes in temperature and rainfall. Warming and acidifying seas threaten coral reefs and krill – the basis of the marine food chain in IN OUR SAMPLE many parts of the world. Large mammals like whales and elephants may be forced to travel further in search of food, leaving the safety of the protected areas that WWF and OF REGIONS AND others have fought so hard to secure. As part of the interwoven web of life, TAXA WILL BE humans will not be immune to the consequences of a changing climate. WWF’s mission is to protect the magnificent array of living things that ‘COMMITTED TO inhabit our planet and to create a healthy and prosperous future in which humans live in harmony with nature. Solving the energy crisis is fundamental to this, EXTINCTION’” * whatever tough choices and challenges it brings. * Thomas C.D. et al, 2004, Extinction risk from climate change. Nature, Vol 427, No. 8 WWF The Energy Report Page 20
  • 21. © Kevin Schafer / WWF-Canon WWF PERSPECTIVE PART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT WWF The Energy Report Page 21
  • 22. Figure 3: World Energy Supply Source: The Ecofys Energy Scenario, December 2010 Map 4: Fossil Fuel and Renewable Energy Potential This OMA map is an artists’ impression showing the abundance of Renewable Energy potentials. It is not intended to claim exact values for renewable energy potentials but represents a rough estimate based on landmass. WWF The Energy Report Page 22
  • 23. 100%1:POSSIBLE PART THE ENERGY REPORT term return. While thousands projected increases 100% POSSIBLE of houses throughout the world, especially in Germany and in population, long- distance travel and Scandinavia, have been built to increased economic Switching to a fully renew- “passive house” standards that wealth – it does not able energy supply by 2050 is require almost no energy for demand radical changes achievable, but there are chal- heating and cooling, many more to the way we live. lenges to overcome. construction projects follow old-fashioned, energy-inefficient The scenario detailed The global energy crisis is a daunting designs. by Ecofys for this report challenge. Yet we do not have to look far for is not the only solution, the solutions. Energy derived from the sun, Moving to a fully renewable nor is it intended the wind, the Earth’s heat, water and the energy future by 2050 is a radical to be a prescriptive sea has the potential to meet the world’s departure from humanity’s plan. Indeed, it raises electricity needs many times over, even current course. It is an ambitious a number of major allowing for fluctuations in supply and goal. But WWF believes that it is challenges and difficult demand. We can greatly reduce the amount a goal we can and must achieve. questions – particularly of energy we use through simple measures This conviction led us to establish for a conservation like insulating buildings, recycling a collaborative partnership organization like WWF materials and installing efficient biomass with Ecofys, one of the world’s – which we will discuss stoves. Biomass from waste, crops and leading climate and energy in more detail on the forest resources has potential to provide a consultancies. We commissioned following pages. To renewable source of energy – although this Ecofys to assess whether it would realize our vision of a raises significant social and environmental be possible to secure a fully 100 per cent renewable issues, which we will discuss later in this renewable, sustainable energy and sustainable energy report. supply for everyone on the planet supply, we need to by 2050. further advance the Around the world, people are taking steps Ecofys scenario; and in the right direction. In 2009, China The Ecofys scenario, which forms we propose some of the added 37GW of renewable energy, bringing the second part of this report, is social and technological its total renewable capacity to 226GW the most ambitious analysis of changes that could help – equivalent to four times the capacity its kind to date. It demonstrates us do this. required to satisfy the total peak electrical that it is technically feasible to power consumption of Great Britain11 or supply everyone on the planet in In presenting the Ecofys over twice the total electric capacity of 2050 with the energy they need, scenario, WWF aims Africa!12 In Europe and the U.S., more than with 95 per cent of this energy to show that a fully half of all new power capacity installed coming from renewable sources. renewable energy future in 2009 came from renewable sources. This would reduce greenhouse is not an unattainable In the developing world, more than 30 gas emissions from the energy utopia. It is technically million households have their own biogas sector by about 80 per cent while and economically generators for cooking and lighting. Over taking account of residual land- possible, and there are 160 million use “improved” biomass stoves, based emissions from bioenergy concrete steps we can which are more efficient and produce production. take – starting right less greenhouse gas and other pollutants. now – to achieve it. Solar water heating is used by 70 million The task ahead is, of course, households around the world. Wind power a huge one, raising major 11. Figures for UK energy demand capacity has grown by 70 per cent, and challenges. However, the come from the National Grid’s website: http://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/ solar power (PV) by a massive 190 per cent scenario Ecofys has mapped out Electricity/Data/Demand+Data/ in the last two years (2008 and 2009). is practically possible. It is based 12. EIA World Electric Data 2006 http://www.eia.doe.gov/iea/elec.html During the same period, total investment only on the technologies the 13. Renewables 2010 Global Status Report, REN 21. into all renewables has increased from world already has at its disposal, about $US 100 billion in 2007 to more and is realistic about the rate at than $US 150 billion in which these can be brought up 200913. to scale. Although significant investment will be required, the But the pace of change is far too slow. economic outlay is reasonable, Non-hydro renewables still only comprise a with net costs never rising above mere 3 per cent of all electricity consumed. 2 per cent of global GDP. The Huge quantities of fossil fuels continue to Ecofys scenario accounts for be extracted and used, and global carbon emissions are still rising. Government subsidies and private investments in “WE CAN REDUCE OUR RELIANCE ON fossil fuels and nuclear power ventures still vastly outweigh those into renewable FOSSIL FUELS BY 70% BY 2040”* energy and energy efficiency, even though * Source: The Ecofys Energy Scenario, December 2010 the latter would give a far greater long- WWF The Energy Report Page 23
  • 24. THE ECOFYS SCENARIO IN A NUTSHELL 14 In 2050, energy demand is 15 per cent viable – primarily in providing start to outweigh the lower than in 2005. Although population, fuels for aeroplanes, ships costs. If oil prices rise industrial output, passenger travel and trucks, and in industrial faster than predicted, and freight transport continue to rise processes that require very high and if we factor in the as predicted, ambitious energy-saving temperatures. We can meet costs of climate change measures allow us to do more with part of this demand from waste and the impact of fossil less. Industry uses more recycled and products, but it would still be fuels on public health, energy-efficient materials, buildings are necessary to grow sustainable the pay-off occurs much constructed or upgraded to need minimal biofuel crops and take more wood earlier. energy for heating and cooling, and there is from well-managed forests to a shift to more efficient forms of transport. meet demand. Careful land-use 14. A table summarising all energy data is provided on pages 231 and 232 of the planning and better international Ecofys scenario. 500 As far as possible, we use electrical energy cooperation and governance are rather than solid and liquid fuels. Wind, essential to ensure we do this solar, biomass and hydropower are the without threatening food and 400 main sources of electricity, with solar and water supplies or biodiversity, or Final Energy (EJ/a) geothermal sources, as well as heat pumps increasing atmospheric carbon. providing a large share of heat for buildings and industry. Because supplies of wind and By 2050, we save nearly €4 300 solar power vary, “smart” electricity grids trillion per year through energy have been developed to store and deliver efficiency and reduced fuel costs energy more efficiently. compared to a “business-as- usual” scenario. But big increases “BY 2050, WE 200 Bioenergy (liquid biofuels and solid biomass) is used as a last resort where in capital expenditure are needed first – to install renewable SAVE NEARLY other renewable energy sources are not energy-generating capacity on a massive scale, modernize €4 TRILLION 100 electricity grids, transform PER YEAR goods and public transport and improve the energy efficiency THROUGH 0 2000 201 of our existing buildings. Our investments begin to pay off ENERGY around 2040, when the savings EFFICIENCY AND REDUCED FUEL COSTS” Figure 4: World Energy Supply by Source. The Ecofys Energy Scenario, December 2010 WWF The Energy Report Page 24
  • 25. THE ECOFYS SCENARIO INPART 1:NUTSHELL A THE ENERGY REPORT 15 Map 5: Global Population Density 2010 Gridded Population of the World, version 3 (GPWv3) and the Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project (GRUMP) produced by the Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) of the Earth Institute at Columbia University. WWF The Energy Report Page 25
  • 26. ENERGY FOR A NEW FUTURE WWF The Energy Report Page 26
  • 27. © Chris Martin Bahr / WWF-Canon CHANGINGTHEREALITY © Chris Martin Bahr / WWF-Canon PART 1: ENERGY REPORT WWF The Energy Report Page 27
  • 28. Global potential of wind power THE ENERGY MIX Introducing the energy sources of the future At the moment, more than 80 per cent of our global energy comes from fossil fuels (oil, gas and coal). The remainder comes from nuclear and renewable energy sources, mainly hydropower, and traditional biomass fuels such as charcoal, which are often used inefficiently and unsustainably. Under the Ecofys scenario, fossil fuels, nuclear power and traditional biomass are almost entirely phased-out by 2050, to be replaced with a more varied mixture of renewable energy sources. The Ecofys scenario takes into account each resource’s overall potential, current growth rates, selected sustainability criteria, and other constraints and opportunities such as variability of wind and solar sources. Technological breakthroughs, market forces and geographic location will all Global potential of water power influence the ways in which renewable energies are developed and deployed, so the final energy breakdown could well look very different - while still based on 100 per cent sustainable renewables. ENERGY OF THE FUTURE WWF The Energy Report Page 28
  • 29. THE PART 1: THE ENERGYMIX ENERGY REPORT “IN ORDER TO CUT GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS BY AT LEAST 80% BY 2050, THE WORLD WILL NEED TO TRANSITION TO RENEWABLE ENERGY” Global potential of solar power and heat Global potential of geothermal energy Figure 5: World Renewable Production Potential The Ecofys Energy Scenario, December 2010 PV - Solar power from photovoltaics CSP - Concentrating solar power CSH - Concentrating solar high-temperature heat for industry Low T - Low temperature heat Hight T - High temperature heat WWF The Energy Report Page 29
  • 30. Map 6: Global Solar Potential NASA Map of World Solar Energy Potential WWF The Energy Report Page 30
  • 31. © John E. Newby / WWF-Canon SOLAR PART 1: THE ENERGYMIX ENERGY REPORT Solar energy The sun provides an effectively unlimited For developing countries, many supply of energy that we can use to gener- of which are in regions that ate electricity and heat. At the moment, so- receive the most sunlight, solar lar energy technology contributes only 0.02 power is an especially important per cent of our total energy supply, but this resource. Solar energy can proportion is growing fast. In the Ecofys generate power in rural areas, on scenario, solar energy supplies around half islands, and other remote places of our total electricity, half of our building “off-grid”. heating and 15 per cent of our industrial heat and fuel by 2050, requiring an average One obvious drawback of annual growth rate much lower than the solar power is that the supply one currently sustained year on year. varies. Photovoltaic cells don’t function after dark – although Solar energy provides light, heat and most electricity is consumed in electricity. Photovoltaic (PV) cells, daylight hours when sunshine which convert sunlight directly into also peaks – and are less effective electricity, can be integrated into devices on cloudy days. But energy (solar-powered calculators have been storage is improving: CSP around since the 1970s) or buildings, or systems that can store energy in installed on exposed areas such as roofs. the form of heat - which can then Concentrating solar power (CSP) uses be used to generate electricity mirrors or lenses to focus the sun’s rays - for up to 15 hours, are now at onto a small area where the heat can be the design stage. This issue of collected – for example to heat water, variability can also be addressed which can be used to generate electricity by combining solar electricity via a steam turbine or for direct heat. The with other renewable electricity same principle can be used on a small sources. scale to cook food or boil water. Solar thermal collectors absorb heat from the “IF 0.3% OF THE sun and provide hot water. Combined with improved insulation and window architecture, direct sunshine can also be used to heat buildings. SAHARA DESERT WAS A CONCENTRATED SOLAR PLANT, IT WOULD POWER ALL OF EUROPE” * * Bridgette Meinhold, Desertec Foundation, 2009 WWF The Energy Report Page 31
  • 32. WWF The Energy Report Page 32
  • 33. © National Geographic Stock / Sarah Leen / WWF WIND PART 1: THE ENERGYMIX ENERGY REPORT Wind energy Wind power currently supplies around Although wind farms have a very wind developments 2 per cent of global electricity demand, visible effect on the landscape, need to be sensitively with capacity more than doubling in the their environmental impact is planned to minimise last four years. In Denmark, wind already minimal if they are planned the impact on marine accounts for one-fifth of the country’s sensitively. When turbines are life and birds, and more electricity production. Wind could meet a sited on farmland, almost all research is needed quarter of the world’s electricity needs by of the land can still be used for in this area. Floating 2050 if current growth rates continue – agriculture, such as grazing or turbines, which would requiring an additional 1,000,000 onshore crops. Unlike fossil fuel and have less impact on the and 100,000 offshore turbines. Electricity nuclear power plants, wind seabed and could be from offshore wind is less variable, and farms don’t need any water for sited in deeper water, turbines can be bigger. cooling. Both on- and offshore are being trialled. “AN ADDITIONAL 1,000,000 ONSHORE AND 100,000 OFFSHORE WIND TURBINES WOULD MEET A QUARTER OF THE WORLD’S ELECTRICITY NEEDS BY 2050”* * Source: The Ecofys Energy Scenario, December 2010 WWF The Energy Report Page 33
  • 34. Geothermal energy The ancient Romans used the heat from beneath the Earth’s crust to heat buildings and water, but only relatively recently have we begun to rediscover its potential. Under the Ecofys scenario, more than a third of building heat comes from geothermal sources by 2050. This is not restricted to volcanically active areas: direct geothermal heat can provide central heating for buildings in almost all parts of the world15. When temperatures are high enough, geothermal energy can be used to generate electricity and local heating, including high-temperature heat for industrial processes. Unlike wind or solar power, which vary with the weather, geothermal energy provides a constant supply of electricity. Iceland already gets a quarter of its electricity and almost all of its heating from its molten “basement”. In the Philippines, geothermal plants generate almost a fifth of total electricity16. Geothermal electric capacity is growing at around 5 per cent each year; the Ecofys analysis suggests we could reasonably hope to at least double this growth rate to provide about 4 per cent of our total electricity in 2050. Geothermal would also provide 5 per cent of our industrial heat needs. Exploiting geothermal resources will undoubtedly affect the surrounding environment and the people who live there. Geothermal steam or hot water used for generating electricity contains toxic compounds, but “closed loop” systems can prevent these from escaping. If sites are well chosen and systems are in place to control emissions, they have little negative environmental impact. In fact, because geothermal plants need healthy water catchment areas, they may actually strengthen efforts to conserve surrounding ecosystems17. 15.Direct geothermal heat should not be confused with heat pumps, which are included on the demand-side in the Ecofys scenario and provide heat in addition to geothermal energy. 16. http://www.geo-energy.org/pdf/reports/GEA_International_ Market_Report_Final_May_2010.pdf 17. See: Geothermal Projects in National Parks in the Philippines: The Case of the Mt. Apo Geothermal Project, Francis M. Dolor, PNOC Energy Development Corporation WWF The Energy Report Page 34
  • 35. GEOTHERMAL PART 1: THE ENERGYMIX ENERGY REPORT © Michel Terrettaz / WWF-Canon “BY 2050, MORE THAN A THIRD OF BUILDING HEAT COULD COME FROM GEOTHERMAL SOURCES ”* *Ecofys Energy Scenario, 2010 WWF The Energy Report Page 35
  • 36. “IF WE COULD HARNESS 0.1% OF THE ENERGY IN THE OCEAN, WE COULD SUPPORT THE ENERGY NEEDS OF 15 BILLION PEOPLE”* WWF The Energy Report Page 36
  • 37. © Wild Wonders of Europe /Inaki Relanzon / WWF OCEAN PART 1: THE ENERGYMIX ENERGY REPORT Ocean power The motion of the ocean, through both waves and tides, provides a potentially vast and reliable source of energy – but there are significant challenges in convert- ing it into electricity. Several pilot projects are underway to harness wave energy and to design sus- tainable tidal systems, but this is a relatively new technology. Recog- nising this constraint, the Ecofys scenario assumes that ocean pow- er accounts for only 1 per cent of global electricity supply by 2050. However, it is likely to provide a significantly larger percentage in some particularly suitable areas, like America’s Pacific Northwest and the British Isles. Wave and tidal power installa- tions could affect the local marine environment, coastal communi- ties, as well as maritime indus- tries such as shipping and fishing. It is critical that appropriate sites are selected and technologies de- veloped that minimize any nega- tive impacts. * M.M. Bernitsas, et al., Vortex Induced Vibration Aquatic Clean Energy): A New Concept in Generation of Clean and Renewable Energy from Fluid Flow” OMAE ’06 WWF The Energy Report Page 37
  • 38. Hydropower Hydropower is currently the world’s largest “NEW renewable power source, providing nearly one-fifth of all electricity worldwide. Large- scale hydropower plants store water in a reservoir behind a dam, and then regulate HYDROPOWER the flow according to electricity demand. Hydropower can provide a relatively reliable source of power on demand, SCHEMES WOULD helping to balance variable sources like wind and solar PV. However, hydropower can have severe NEED TO MEET environmental and social impacts. By changing water flow downstream, dams threaten freshwater ecosystems and the livelihoods of millions of people who STRINGENT depend on fisheries, wetlands, and regular deposits of sediment for agriculture. They fragment habitats and cut-off fish access ENVIRONMENTAL to traditional spawning grounds. Creating reservoirs means flooding large areas of land: 40-80 million people worldwide have been displaced as a result of hydroelectric SUSTAINABILITY schemes18. The Ecofys scenario reflects these AND HUMAN concerns with a relatively small increase in hydropower. Hydropower would provide 12 per cent of our electricity in 2050 compared with 15 per cent today. New RIGHTS CRITERIA” hydropower schemes would need to meet stringent environmental sustainability and human rights criteria, and minimize any negative impacts on river flows and freshwater habitats. 18. http://www.internationalrivers.org/en/way-forward/world- commission-dams/world-commission-dams-framework-brief- introduction WWF The Energy Report Page 38
  • 39. © Hartmut Jungius / WWF-Canon HYDRO PART 1: THE ENERGYMIX ENERGY REPORT WWF The Energy Report Page 39
  • 40. © naturepl.com/ Tim Laman / WWF Bio energy Energy from biomass – materials derived waste. Using these resources deforestation, food from living or recently living organisms, up to a sustainable level has and water shortages, such as plant materials or animal waste – is other environmental benefits, and other social and potentially the most challenging part of the such as cutting methane and environmental impacts, Ecofys scenario. Bioenergy comes from a nitrogen emissions and water so must be considered large variety of sources and is used in many pollution from animal slurry, and with utmost care. different ways. Wood and charcoal have reducing the need for landfill. In traditionally provided the main source of developing countries, more than With an expected 2 fuel for cooking and heating for hundreds 30 million households have their billion more mouths to of millions of people in the developing own biogas digesters for cooking feed by 2050, it is vital world. More recently, biofuels have begun and lighting. Some residues and that increased biofuel to replace some petrol and diesel in waste products are already used, cultivation does not use vehicles. for example as soil conditioners; land and water that is the Ecofys scenario accounts for needed to grow food In principle, biomass is a renewable these. for people or to sustain resource – it is possible to grow new plants biodiversity. This is no to replace the ones we use. Greenhouse The second major source of easy challenge. While gas emissions are lower than from fossil biomass comes from forests. Ecofys has applied a fuels, provided there is enough regrowth According to the Ecofys scenario, series of safeguards in to absorb the carbon dioxide released, and we will need more than 4.5 billion its analysis, land and good management practices are applied. cubic metres of wood products water implications of Bioenergy also has potential to provide for energy purposes by 2050 bioenergy feedstock sustainable livelihoods for millions of coming from harvesting and production will need people, particularly in Africa, Asia and processing residues, wood waste further research, Latin America. However, if produced and “complementary fellings” especially at the unsustainably its environmental and social – the difference between the landscape level. impacts can be devastating. We need amount of wood we use and the comprehensive policies and mandatory maximum amount that we could A possible long-term certification to ensure bioenergy is sustainably harvest in forests that alternative source produced to the highest standards. are already used commercially. of high-density fuel This is preferable to taking included in this scenario Although the Ecofys scenario favours wood from virgin forests and is algae. Algae can other renewable resources wherever disturbing important habitats, be grown in vats of possible, there are some applications where although more intensive forestry saltwater or wastewater bioenergy is currently the only suitable is bound to affect biodiversity. on land not suitable for replacement for fossil fuels. Aviation, In addition, some of the biomass agriculture. Large-scale shipping and long-haul trucking require traditionally used for heating and cultivation of algae for liquid fuels with a high energy density; cooking in the developing world, biofuel is currently in they cannot, with current technology and which will largely be replaced by development. In the fuelling infrastructure, be electrified or renewable energy sources such Ecofys scenario, algae powered by hydrogen. Some industrial as solar energy, can also be used begins to appear as a processes, such as steel manufacturing, for more efficient bioenergy uses. viable energy source require fuels not only for their energy All the same, meeting demand around 2030, and only content, but as feedstocks with specific sustainably will be a huge a fraction of its potential material properties. By 2050, 60 per cent challenge. is included by 2050. of industrial fuels and heat will come from biomass. 13 per cent of building heat will Bioenergy crops provide a The apparent need for come from biomass and some biomass will possible source of liquid fuel large amounts of land still be needed in the electricity mix (about – either vegetable oils from for bioenergy is the 13 per cent), for balancing purposes with plants such as rapeseed, or in aspect of the Ecofys other renewable energy technologies. the form of ethanol derived from scenario that produces crops high in sugar, starch or the hardest challenges We can derive a significant proportion of cellulose. The Ecofys scenario and raises the hardest the bioenergy needs in the Ecofys scenario suggests we will need around questions. We will from products that would otherwise go to 250 million hectares of bioenergy discuss these further on waste. These include some plant residues crops – equal to about one- pages 60-61. from agriculture and food processing; sixth of total global cropland sawdust and residues from forestry and – to meet projected demand. wood processing; manure; and municipal This has the potential to cause WWF The Energy Report Page 40
  • 41. © naturepl.com/ Tim Laman / WWF BIOENERGY MIX PART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT Map 7: World biomass potential WWF The Energy Report Page 41 Artist’s impression, OMA
  • 43. © Simon de TREY-WHITE / WWF-UK CHALLENGESENERGY REPORT PART 1: THE AHEAD THE CHALLENGES AHEAD The Ecofys analysis shows that the world can technically meet its energy needs from renewable sources by 2050. But it throws up some difficult challenges – and not just technical ones. The social, environmental, economic and political issues this report raises are equally pressing. On the technical side, two key factors will enable the world to meet its energy needs from renewable sources: (i) We need to reduce demand by improving energy efficiency and reducing wasteful use of energy; and (ii) because electricity and heat are the forms of energy most easily generated by renewables, we need to maximize the use of electricity and direct heat, with improvements to electricity grids to support this. A sustainable energy future must be an equitable one. Its impact on people and nature will greatly depend on the way we use our land, seas and water resources. Changes in lifestyle also have a critical role to play. Moving to a renewable future will mean rethinking our current finance systems. It will also require innovation. Local, national and regional governance will need to be greatly strengthened to secure an equitable energy future. We need international cooperation and collaboration on an unprecedented level to bridge the gap between the energy-rich and energy-poor, both within and between countries. These challenges are outlined on the following pages. WWF The Energy Report Page 43
  • 44. ENERGY CONSERVATION How can we do more while using less energy? Under the Ecofys scenario, global energy In the developing world, more The world will also need demand in 2050 is 15 per cent lower than than 160 million households now to use less energy for in 2005. This is in striking contrast to use improved biomass cooking transport. That means “business-as-usual” projections, which stoves. Simply using a ceramic making more fuel- predict energy demand will at least lining instead of an all-metal efficient models of all double. This difference is not based on design can improve efficiency forms of transport, and any reduction in activity – industrial by up to a half. The stoves cost operating them more output, domestic energy use, passenger little, reduce carbon emissions effectively. Improved travel and freight transport continue to and deforestation from charcoal air traffic management grow, particularly in developing countries. production, and have immense could reduce congestion Instead, reductions come from using health benefits. Even more and allow planes to energy as efficiently as possible. efficient are solar cookers, which follow more efficient simply use and concentrate the routes and landing Energy conservation is one of the heat from the sun. Distributed approaches, making a prerequisites of a future powered by widely enough, these small-scale small but significant renewables. We will not be able to meet solutions add up to a significant reduction in aviation the needs of our planet’s expected nine reduction in energy demand. fuel demands. Similarly, billion inhabitants if we continue to use it better port, route and as wastefully as we do today. It is the single The world already has the weather planning, along most important element in the Ecofys architectural and construction with reduced speeds, scenario. expertise to create buildings that can significantly reduce require almost no conventional fuel use in cargo ships. In every sector, solutions already exist that energy for heating or cooling, can deliver the massive energy savings we through airtight construction, But we will also need to need. The challenge will be in rolling them heat pumps and sunlight. The move to more efficient out on a global scale as soon as possible. Ecofys scenario foresees all modes of transport; new buildings achieving these making greater use In manufacturing, using recycled materials standards by 2030. of buses, bikes, trams greatly reduces energy consumption. and trains, sending For example, making new products from At the same time, we need to more freight by rail recovered aluminium instead of primary radically improve the energy and sea, and swapping aluminium cuts total energy use by more efficiency of our existing short-haul flights for than two-thirds. Stocks of materials that buildings. We could reduce high-speed trains. take a lot of energy to produce, such as heating needs by 60 per cent Indeed, WWF would steel and aluminium, have grown over the by insulating walls, roofs argue that we need to past decades, making recycling and reusing and ground floors, replacing go further than this, by materials increasingly viable. Finding old windows and installing reducing the number alternatives to materials that take the most ventilation systems that recover and length of journeys energy to produce, such as cement and heat. Local solar thermal systems we need to take – by steel, will mean further energy savings. and heat pumps would fulfil the improving urban remaining heating and hot water planning, logistics Product design also has considerable needs. For all buildings to meet and communication implications for energy use. Making cars these energy efficiency standards technology, and with lighter (although not weaker) frames by 2050, we will need to retrofit reassessing our and with new materials, for example, 2-3 per cent of floor area every priorities. and producing smaller cars reduces both year. This is ambitious, but the need for energy-intensive steel in not impossible – Germany has The more energy we manufacturing and their fuel consumption. already achieved annual retrofit save, the easier the Despite some very innovative models rates in this range. task of moving to a on markets already, there is still huge renewable energy future potential to tap into much higher efficiency will become. It is one levels for all energy-hungry appliances. area where everyone can play a part. WWF The Energy Report Page 44
  • 45. © Michel Gunther / WWF-Canon ENERGY CONSERVATION PART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT “THE GLOBAL COST OF LIGHTING IS $230 BILLION PER YEAR. MODERNIZING WASTEFUL TECHNOLOGY COULD SAVE 60%” * * Mills, E. 2002, “The $230-billion Global Lighting Energy Bill.“, International Association for Energy-Efficient Lighting, Stockholm DO MORE WITH LESS WWF The Energy Report Page 45
  • 46. © National Geographic Stock/ Jim Richardson / WWF “ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND RENEWABLE ENERGY CAN REDUCE OUR DEPENDENCE ON FOSSIL FUELS BY 70% BY 2040” * * The Ecofys Energy Scenario, December 2010 WWF The Energy Report Page 46
  • 47. © National Geographic Stock/ Jim Richardson / WWF ENERGY CONSERVATION PART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT WHAT NOW? • We must introduce legally binding • Energy taxation is a realistic replace air travel as minimum efficiency standards worldwide option, particularly in wealthier much as possible, and for all products that consume energy, countries. Taxes on petrol, a maximum proportion including buildings, along the lines of electricity and fuels are already of freight should be the Japanese “Top Runner” scheme and commonplace. Shifting taxes delivered by rail. the European EcoDesign requirements. to products and cars that use Sustainable and public Governments, companies and experts more energy will help to steer transport modes for all will need to agree standards based demand toward more efficient distances, particularly on Best-Available-Technology (BAT) alternatives. for rail-based transport, benchmarks, which should be monitored must be made cheaper and strengthened regularly. • Developing countries must than road- and air- phase-out the inefficient use of borne traffic. • Energy conservation should be built into traditional biomass, and pursue every stage of product design. Wherever alternatives such as improved • Individuals, possible we should use energy-efficient, biomass cooking stoves, solar businesses, highly-durable and recyclable materials. cookers and small-scale biogas communities and Alternatives to materials like cement, steel digesters. Industrialized nations all need to and plastic that take a lot of energy to countries should facilitate this by be more aware of the produce should be a focus for research and providing financial assistance, as energy they use, and try development. We should adopt a “cradle part of international development to save energy wherever to cradle” design philosophy, where all of commitments and global efforts possible. Driving more a product’s components can be reused or to reduce greenhouse gas slowly and smoothly, recycled once it reaches the end of its life. emissions. buying energy- efficient appliances • We need strict energy-efficiency criteria • Substantial investment is and switching them for all new buildings, aiming toward near- needed into public transport off when not in use, zero energy use, equivalent to “Passive to provide convenient and turning down heating House” standards. Retrofitting rates affordable energy-efficient and air conditioning, must increase quickly to improve the alternatives to private cars. We and increased reusing energy efficiency of existing buildings. particularly need to improve and recycling are just Governments must provide legislation and rail infrastructure: high-speed some ways to make a incentives to enable this. trains, powered by electricity contribution. from renewable sources, should WWF The Energy Report Page 47
  • 48. CASE STUDY WWF The Energy Report Page 48
  • 49. WWW.TOPTEN.INFO PART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT © National Geographic Stock / Tyrone Turner / WWF “WWF HELPED DEVELOP TOPTEN, AN ONLINE SEARCH TOOL THAT IDENTIFIES THE MOST ENERGY- EFFICIENT APPLIANCES ON THE MARKET” TopTen.info Consumers and retailers can put pressure on manufacturers to be more energy efficient through their buying choices. WWF helped develop Topten (www.topten.info), an online search tool that identifies the most energy-efficient appliances on the market. Discerning buyers can compare energy-efficiency ratings for a growing number of items, including cars and vans, household appliances, office equipment, lighting, water heaters and air conditioners. Topten now operates in 17 Figure XX.XX countries across Europe and has recently been launched in the USA and China. WWF The Energy Report Page 49
  • 50. © Nigel Dickinson / WWF-Canon WWF The Energy Report Page 50
  • 51. © Nigel Dickinson / WWF-Canon ELECTRIFICATION PART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT ELECTRIFICATION Renewable sources could provide effectively unlimited power, but how do we switch onto them? The Ecofys scenario for a renewable energy of electricity grids to deliver it. adjust electricity flow future depends upon using electrical power Our existing grid infrastructure – for example, by from clean, renewable sources in place of can only manage a limited tweaking thermostat fossil fuels and nuclear wherever possible. amount of these variable, temperatures – to cope Currently, electricity makes up less than supply-driven sources. Grids with spikes in demand. one-fifth of our total final energy demand; need to keep electrical voltage We could also take by 2050, under the Ecofys scenario, it and frequency steady to avoid advantage of times accounts for almost half. Cars and trains, dangerous power surges, and when supply outstrips for example, will become fully electrified, need the capacity to meet peaks demand to charge while other energy uses (such as fuel to in demand. Today, we keep some car batteries and to heat buildings) will be minimized. power stations, notably coal and generate hydrogen fuel. nuclear, working around the Using more renewable electricity presents clock to provide a permanent At the same time, we several challenges. First, of course, we need supply of electricity (or “base need to bring electricity to generate it. That will mean massively load”). These power stations to those who are not increasing our capacity to produce power cannot simply be switched-off connected to the grid from the renewable resources with the least when renewable energy supplies – particularly in rural environmental impact – through wind, are high, meaning some of this areas in developing solar and geothermal power technologies in energy goes to waste. countries. We can particular. While we will need many more do this by extending large-scale renewable power plants, we will The Ecofys analysis estimates existing grids, or also generate more power at a local level, that networks in industrialized generating power using solar PV roof tiles, water wheels and countries could take about 20-30 at the household individual wind turbines, for example. We are going to need massive investment WWF suggests per cent of total electricity from variable sources without further modernization. At a conservative or community level through solar, micro- hydro, wind power or white borders and to extend and modernize our electricity estimate, this will rise to 60 small-scale biomass grids to cope with increased loads and per cent by 2050 through plants. Providing the different energy sources. We need to improvements in technology 1.4 billion who have background transmit power efficiently from offshore and grid management. The no reliable electricity19 wind turbines, desert solar parks or other 40 per cent would come with a basic supply remote geothermal plants to urban from hydropower, biomass, of 50-100 kWh per centres – while minimizing the impact of geothermal electricity and CSP year would require new power lines or subterranean cables. with storage. investments of about Efficient international networks will also €25 billion per year help balance variable renewable sources The combination of large between now and from different regions. Within Europe, for (“super”) and “smart” grids holds 203020 , or 0.05 per cent example, wind and ocean power from the the key. Power companies and of global GDP. North Sea area could complement Alpine consumers will get information hydropower and solar power from the on energy supply, and price, The electricity networks Mediterranean and even North Africa. to help manage demand. Put that power our world simply, it will be cheaper to are one of the great While solar and wind have the potential to run your washing machine engineering feats of supply an effectively unlimited amount of when the wind is blowing or the 20th century. The power, this is constrained by the capacity the sun is shining. Households, work we need to do to offices or factories would modernize them over programme smart meters to the coming decades will operate certain appliances or be one of the great feats processes automatically when of the 21st. power supplies are plentiful. 19. IEA, World Energy Outlook (WEO), Utility companies would 2010, Paris . 20. IEA, World Energy Outlook (WEO), 2009, Paris WWF The Energy Report Page 51