Education on how Pollen Forecast is created and how the people at http://pollenpredictor.com have managed to create a 4 day forecast for Australia.

1. Pollen Predictor for
IPhone & Android

2. What is Pollen Predictor?

3. What is Pollen Predictor?
Pollen Predictor is the first App to offer 4 days
predictive forecast of Pollen levels in Melbourne.
Our Predictive system has been developed using software dispersion
modelling utilizing years of research and development. Underpinning our
comprehensive research is cutting-edge expertise in regional dispersion
modelling and exposure analysis. Our air quality professionals collaborated
with the firm’s renowned health sciences practitioners to offer world-class
pollen predictive assessment.
ENVIRON developed a comprehensive pollen predictive model system for
Australia to address allergy concerns, particularly hay fever.

4. About Hayfever
People who suffer from nasal allergies (allergic rhinitis) such as hay
fever tend to experience a variety of symptoms as a result of their
allergy.
These may include a runny, itchy or blocked nose, sneezing and
sinus discomfort. These symptoms are a result of inflammation in
the nasal passages.
The nasal inflammation occurs when the nasal passages are
exposed to foreign particles (allergens), for example, pollen.

5. What is a pollen forecast?
A pollen forecast is a prediction of what the pollen levels will be in
the future, like a weather forecast.
Pollen forecasting often has greater value for allergy suffers than a
pollen count, because they can use this information to plan their
day.

6. What is a pollen forecast?
Typically, pollen counts show what was in the air several days
earlier, not what's going to happen today or tomorrow. Pollen
forecasting methods consider natural events, besides the recent
pollen counts, that will affect future pollen levels.
We consider historical pollen counts (which provide predominant
pollen and seasonal trend information for a certain area)
temperatures, precipitation, and weather forecasts.
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7. Pollen Count Classification
Classification Grass Pollen Grains
(per cubic metre of air)
LOW 0 to 19
MODERATE 20 to 49
HIGH 50 to 99
EXTREME > 100
On High/Extreme days, it is likely that all who are grass pollen-sensitive will
experience hayfever symptoms.

8. Grass Pollen
The incidence of grass pollen, estimated by using a Burkard spore trap sited
above a city building, is correlated with meteorological factors.
Pollen incidence is greatest on days with high maximum temperatures and
reduced on days of high humidity or rainfall.
An analysis of pollen yield and relative abundance of grasses in pastures and
roadsides has implicated ryegrass (Lolium perenne and L. rigidum) and canary
grass (Phalaris tuberosa) as some of the major sources of atmospheric pollen.

9. Observed vs Predicted Pollen Counts for 2011
The graph below shows the comparison of the Pollen Predictor results to
Observed Pollen Count by School of Botany, Melbourne University
Grass Pollen Grains
Pollen Level Classification
(per cubic metre of air)
1 LOW 0 to 19
2 MODERATE 20 to 49
3 HIGH 50 to 99
4 EXTREME > 100

10. PollenPredictor
• PollenPredictor has over 75% accuracy rate in predicting pollen
over a 4 day forecast when compared to observed pollen data.
• PollenPredictor is being constantly refined to account for changes
in climate, wind patterns and pollen movement across Australia.