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John Betty
Development & Major Projects
Bath & North East Somerset Council
UK Property returns/values
Percentage of vacant retail and licensed
                                units vacant B&NES Estate
          16.00%

          14.00%

          12.00%

          10.00%
Percent




                                                                B&NES Estate
           8.00%                                                National
                                                                Bath
           6.00%

           4.00%

           2.00%

           0.00%
                   Nov-10   Dec-10   Jan-11   Feb-11   Mat 11
                                     Months
Shopping centre new floor space 2008-
                                 2013
Trends in quarterly housing starts and
                          completions
Impact of cuts on construction
                      industry
Schools Capital Projects plus
                                                                                     forecast


18,000,000        Threeways     Fosseway          St Keyna      Writhlington      Batheaston      WASP   Ralph Allen School          Oldfield School


16,000,000


14,000,000


12,000,000


10,000,000


 8,000,000


 6,000,000


 4,000,000


 2,000,000


       -
           2006          2007              2008              2009              2010            2011      2012                 2013

-2,000,000
B&NES: Meeting the financial challenge


• The comprehensive spending review sets out real terms
  reductions of 30% in local authority budgets over the next
  four years across the whole Country.
• B&NES further In Year savings in 10/11 =
  £1.8m of capital and £1.8m of revenue
• B&NES further lost In Year 11/12, £10.3m = 16% of
  budget in ONE year.
• B&NES will lose a further (8%) in 12/13
Therefore…
• The Council plans to achieve a £38m reduction in annual
  spending by 2014/15
• Revenue is the ability for Council to support Capital spend
iceberg
B&NES Project Spend


                  90


                  80                                              77
                                                                             74


                  70                                                                  66

                                                                                                          59
                  60
                                                                                                51

                  50
'£' million




                          43        44        43


                  40                                    37



                  30


                  20


                  10


              -
                       2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013   2017
                                                                  Financial Year
Housing
Buyer confidence

                                                               Unsold stock             New Enquiries



                                      100                                                                   100

                                       80                                                                   80
net balance instructions/ enquiries




                                       60                                                                   60




                                                                                                                   tock per surveyor office
                                       40                                                                   40

                                       20                                                                   20

                                        0                                     i
                                                                                                            0

                                      -20                                                                   -20




                                                                                                                  S
                                      -40                                                                   -40

                                      -60                                                                   -60

                                      -80                                                                   -80
                                        Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11
P e rc e n




      0
             20
                  40
                       60
                             80
                                  100
                                         120
                                               140
                                                     160
                                                           180
N o v -8 7

N o v -8 8

N o v -8 9

N o v -9 0

N o v -9 1

N o v -9 2

N o v -9 3

N o v -9 4

N o v -9 5

N o v -9 6

N o v -9 7

N o v -9 8

N o v -9 9

N o v -0 0

N o v -0 1

N o v -0 2

N o v -0 3
                                                                 Lending to individuals % of disposable income




N o v -0 4

N o v -0 5

N o v -0 6

N o v -0 7

N o v -0 8

N o v -0 9
                                                                                                                 Household debt to income ratio
There is a huge development
                                                           opportunity


… because        1,400
 fundamental                     Cumulative shortfall (000,s)                                               1,116

stock shortage   1,200           Shortfall (000,s)                                                   1009


   persists                      Housing Completions (000,s)
                                                                                              887

                 1,000                                                                 764
                                 Savills Household Projections (000,s)

                                                                                620
                  800

                                                                         480

                  600
                                                                 352

                  400                   210.6            271
                                170              235
                          99


                  200



                    0
                         2005   2006   2007     2008    2009    2010     2011   2012   2013   2014   2015   2016
Housing tools
Leadership: Vision to Delivery
Gateways                                             Current Project
                                                         Status


2005
           Vision
                            Gas


 2007

           Futures
                           Liquid

 2009
           Economic
            Strategy
                                           e
                                      e ar
                                     W e re
             Treasure &                 h
 2010        Transform
                           Crystal
              Delivery

                            Solid
2011       Core Strategy
Health &                         Sustainable
                                                                     Education
wellbeing                         Growth
                                  Strategy
                                                                  Waste
   Environment

                                                      Transport
    Property Assets

                      Economic                 Core




  •Leadership and a vision           •Advocacy and promotion of area
  •Clear Plan                        •Seeking public/private Co-operation
  •Infrastructure                    •Reducing red tape and cost
Our role
John Betty
EVENT NAME BOX
           Strategic Director
           Development & Major Projects






PEOPLE




           PROSPERITY




BUSINESS                PLACE
•Bath in the future will be a City of Ideas where
knowledge and creativity combine to create value
and enhance quality of life.

•The Bath City Riverside area represents an
exciting opportunity to create a cluster of sites
that deliver 21st century workspaces and homes
for the knowledge and creative sectors.

•Academia and business would be connected by
new infrastructure and outstanding public realm.
Our City of Ideas…                    This is what it would look like
 A once in a lifetime opportunity       An exemplar
 World class collaborative and            public/private partnership
   interdisciplinary workspace:            creating new ideas, spin
     Venue for University                 outs and high growth
        Continuing Professional            companies
        Development in STEM              21st century workspace
        subjects                         Vibrant / creative /
     Innovation centre hosting            valuable
        100 high tech, high growth       Well connected
        companies (resident and          Connected to academia
        virtual)
     HQ of innovation Company           High quality design
     Major high tech publishing         City Centre location
        industry business HQ             Shared facilities
     Knowledge Hub for ICT,             Support mechanisms –
        microelectronics, smart            mentoring, professional
        grid sectors                       services, legal, financial,
     Manufacturing skills                 protection of Intellectual
        academy                            Property), access to
                                           venture capital
GREAT                    Attract
                    Support      PLACES
                               Environment, Culture

            Continued
                               Economy, community               Skilled
           investment          EDUCATION                     People/knowle
                                                                 dge

Enable                          BUILDING A
                                 CITY OF
                                  IDEAS                               Good
     Successful                                                       jobs
      economy


                                                      Competitive    Generate
                        Demand for
         Generate          better                      business
                         transport
                                     Generate
GREAT                    Attract
                    Support      PLACES
                               Environment, Culture

            Continued
                               Economy, community               Skilled
           investment          EDUCATION                     People/knowle
                                                                 dge

Enable                          BUILDING A
                                 CITY OF
                                  IDEAS                               Good
     Successful                                                       jobs
      economy


                                                      Competitive    Generate
                        Demand for
         Generate          better                      business
                         transport
                                     Generate
Where we will live, work and play
Public/private delivery
Saw Close, Bath
Public/private opportunity
Market Towns
Keynsham
Regeneration
Temple Street Regeneration, Keynsham
Property Asset Delivery Vehicle



•   The Council owns a substantial commercial estate that generates
    about £14M of annual rental income and has a book? value in the
    accounts over £200M.

•   The estate represents about two thirds of the retail property in the
    centre of Bath. In addition there are a number of potential
    development sites in Bath and elsewhere which are owned by the
    Council and which also have a significant development value.

•   The generation of Capital Receipts is expected to come from to
    the Commercial Estate.
The Private sector will need to:

• Have well thought through proposals and innovative ways of
funding them
• Rely less on the public sector
• Distinguish between authorities that have a clear plan from
those that don’t
• Protect downside of investment rather than maximising
upside
• Going to have to think of better ways of making use of each
others capacities and think of cleverer ways of asking us
what is helpful
• Accept we cannot deliver as we did in the past due to
Government spending reductions
The Public sector will need to:


• Have a clear corporate plan

• Be prepared to be an investor
• Utilise its property holdings
• Utilise its covenant
• Have a design for growth
• Remove barriers
• Fight for infrastructure investment
•Be actively engaged in the West of England
Working together
Presentation by John Betty of BANES

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Presentation by John Betty of BANES

  • 1. John Betty Development & Major Projects Bath & North East Somerset Council
  • 2.
  • 4. Percentage of vacant retail and licensed units vacant B&NES Estate 16.00% 14.00% 12.00% 10.00% Percent B&NES Estate 8.00% National Bath 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mat 11 Months
  • 5. Shopping centre new floor space 2008- 2013
  • 6. Trends in quarterly housing starts and completions
  • 7. Impact of cuts on construction industry
  • 8. Schools Capital Projects plus forecast 18,000,000 Threeways Fosseway St Keyna Writhlington Batheaston WASP Ralph Allen School Oldfield School 16,000,000 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 - 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 -2,000,000
  • 9. B&NES: Meeting the financial challenge • The comprehensive spending review sets out real terms reductions of 30% in local authority budgets over the next four years across the whole Country. • B&NES further In Year savings in 10/11 = £1.8m of capital and £1.8m of revenue • B&NES further lost In Year 11/12, £10.3m = 16% of budget in ONE year. • B&NES will lose a further (8%) in 12/13 Therefore… • The Council plans to achieve a £38m reduction in annual spending by 2014/15 • Revenue is the ability for Council to support Capital spend
  • 11. B&NES Project Spend 90 80 77 74 70 66 59 60 51 50 '£' million 43 44 43 40 37 30 20 10 - 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2017 Financial Year
  • 13. Buyer confidence Unsold stock New Enquiries 100 100 80 80 net balance instructions/ enquiries 60 60 tock per surveyor office 40 40 20 20 0 i 0 -20 -20 S -40 -40 -60 -60 -80 -80 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11
  • 14. P e rc e n 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 N o v -8 7 N o v -8 8 N o v -8 9 N o v -9 0 N o v -9 1 N o v -9 2 N o v -9 3 N o v -9 4 N o v -9 5 N o v -9 6 N o v -9 7 N o v -9 8 N o v -9 9 N o v -0 0 N o v -0 1 N o v -0 2 N o v -0 3 Lending to individuals % of disposable income N o v -0 4 N o v -0 5 N o v -0 6 N o v -0 7 N o v -0 8 N o v -0 9 Household debt to income ratio
  • 15. There is a huge development opportunity … because 1,400 fundamental Cumulative shortfall (000,s) 1,116 stock shortage 1,200 Shortfall (000,s) 1009 persists Housing Completions (000,s) 887 1,000 764 Savills Household Projections (000,s) 620 800 480 600 352 400 210.6 271 170 235 99 200 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
  • 17. Leadership: Vision to Delivery Gateways Current Project Status 2005 Vision Gas 2007 Futures Liquid 2009 Economic Strategy e e ar W e re Treasure & h 2010 Transform Crystal Delivery Solid 2011 Core Strategy
  • 18. Health & Sustainable Education wellbeing Growth Strategy Waste Environment Transport Property Assets Economic Core •Leadership and a vision •Advocacy and promotion of area •Clear Plan •Seeking public/private Co-operation •Infrastructure •Reducing red tape and cost
  • 20. John Betty EVENT NAME BOX Strategic Director Development & Major Projects
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 24.
  • 25.
  • 26. PEOPLE PROSPERITY BUSINESS PLACE
  • 27. •Bath in the future will be a City of Ideas where knowledge and creativity combine to create value and enhance quality of life. •The Bath City Riverside area represents an exciting opportunity to create a cluster of sites that deliver 21st century workspaces and homes for the knowledge and creative sectors. •Academia and business would be connected by new infrastructure and outstanding public realm.
  • 28.
  • 29.
  • 30. Our City of Ideas…  This is what it would look like  A once in a lifetime opportunity  An exemplar  World class collaborative and public/private partnership interdisciplinary workspace: creating new ideas, spin  Venue for University outs and high growth Continuing Professional companies Development in STEM  21st century workspace subjects  Vibrant / creative /  Innovation centre hosting valuable 100 high tech, high growth  Well connected companies (resident and  Connected to academia virtual)  HQ of innovation Company  High quality design  Major high tech publishing  City Centre location industry business HQ  Shared facilities  Knowledge Hub for ICT,  Support mechanisms – microelectronics, smart mentoring, professional grid sectors services, legal, financial,  Manufacturing skills protection of Intellectual academy Property), access to venture capital
  • 31. GREAT Attract Support PLACES Environment, Culture Continued Economy, community Skilled investment EDUCATION People/knowle dge Enable BUILDING A CITY OF IDEAS Good Successful jobs economy Competitive Generate Demand for Generate better business transport Generate
  • 32. GREAT Attract Support PLACES Environment, Culture Continued Economy, community Skilled investment EDUCATION People/knowle dge Enable BUILDING A CITY OF IDEAS Good Successful jobs economy Competitive Generate Demand for Generate better business transport Generate
  • 33. Where we will live, work and play
  • 40. Property Asset Delivery Vehicle • The Council owns a substantial commercial estate that generates about £14M of annual rental income and has a book? value in the accounts over £200M. • The estate represents about two thirds of the retail property in the centre of Bath. In addition there are a number of potential development sites in Bath and elsewhere which are owned by the Council and which also have a significant development value. • The generation of Capital Receipts is expected to come from to the Commercial Estate.
  • 41. The Private sector will need to: • Have well thought through proposals and innovative ways of funding them • Rely less on the public sector • Distinguish between authorities that have a clear plan from those that don’t • Protect downside of investment rather than maximising upside • Going to have to think of better ways of making use of each others capacities and think of cleverer ways of asking us what is helpful • Accept we cannot deliver as we did in the past due to Government spending reductions
  • 42. The Public sector will need to: • Have a clear corporate plan • Be prepared to be an investor • Utilise its property holdings • Utilise its covenant • Have a design for growth • Remove barriers • Fight for infrastructure investment •Be actively engaged in the West of England