Ireland showing signs of economic recovery

Economic Recovery Index
An Amárach Research Briefing
February 2012

© Amárach Research
Economic Recovery Index 1

The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly
Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out two years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards
recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

Our tracking research has shown the
remarkable emotional strength of the Irish
people, who have consistently reported
‘happiness’ and ‘enjoyment’ as their two most
frequently experienced emotions.

This report summarises our Economic
Recovery Index results from April 2009 to
February 2012.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted
during 6th-12th February 2012 inclusive.


A Matter of Measurement

Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us
which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)

The consumer outlook has improved slightly at the start of the year:

Jan’12: 0% Feb’12: 0%

Jan’12: 2% Feb’12: 2%

Jan’12: 58% Feb’12: 55% Jan’12: 16% Feb’12: 18%

Jan’12: 24% Feb’12: 24%


The Stages of Recovery
Perceptions of the current stage of recovery by demographic group:
ABC1 C2DE
FEBRUARY 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+
F50+ F50-
Weighted Sample 1001 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 524
The economic
situation in Ireland is 54% 49% 58% 32% 52% 63% 66% 56% 49% 58%
getting worse
The economic
situation is bad but 24% 28% 20% 29% 28% 19% 15% 26% 24% 23%
has stabilized
The economic
situation is bad but
18% 18% 17% 32% 15% 14% 16% 15% 22% 14%
showing a few signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is getting
better and showing 2% 2% 2% 1% 3% 2% 1% 1% 2% 2%
clear signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is good and * 1% 0 1% * 0 0 * * *
almost fully recovered
from the recession

Source: Amárach Research, February 2012

The Economic Recovery Index

Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic
Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).
The ERI stood at 16.9 in February 2012, the highest level since October 2011:


Recovery Outlook 1

% of Irish adults who agree with each statement:

Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time:
% agree strongly/slightly

52% 42%
41% 43% 39%
48%
41%44% 42%43%
46% 41% 42% 43% 42% 42% 28%
34% 31% 23% 26% 24% 25% 24% 23% 26% 24% 26% 26% 23% 22% 21%
26%
26% 18%
Aug

Nov

Aug

Nov

Aug

Nov
Oct

Oct

Oct
Dec

Dec

Dec
Jan'12
Sept

Sept

Sept
Apr '09

Apr '10

Apr '11
Jun

Feb

June

Feb

June

Feb
July

July

July
Jan

Jan
May

May

May
Mar

Mar
I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation:

61% 54% 55%
65% 55% 53%
57% 59% 58% 60% 62% 51% 48% 48% 47% 47% 48% 48% 47% 49%
51% 55% 54%52% 53%
50% 46% 41% 44% 42% 39% 45%
44%
44%
33%
Aug

Nov

Aug

Nov

Aug

Nov
Oct

Oct

Oct
Dec

Dec

Dec
Jan'12
Sept

Sept

Sept
Apr '09

Apr '10

Apr '11
Jun

Feb

June

Feb

June

Feb
July

July

July
May

May

May
Mar

Mar
Jan

Jan


Recovery Outlook 2


I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession:

50% 47%
45% 45% 41% 41% 41%
39% 37% 36% 39% 40% 39%
48% 48%51% 47%48%48%46%
47% 43%47% 45% 46% 32% 34% 34% 34% 38% 38% 34% 33% 37%
45%
Aug

Nov

Aug

Nov

Aug

Nov
Oct

Oct

Oct
Dec

Dec

Dec
Sept

Sept

Sept
Apr '09

Apr '10

Apr '11

Jan'12
June

June
Jun

Feb

Feb

Feb
July

July

July
May

May

May
Mar

Mar
Jan

Jan
Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it
is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly
62% 61% 60% 61% 60%
56% 56% 55%53% 55% 55% 53%
59% 49% 45% 47% 48% 50% 49% 46% 49% 45% 45% 49%
52% 54% 52% 45% 45% 44% 43% 46%
53% 51% 50%
Aug

Nov

Aug

Nov

Aug

Nov
Oct

Oct

Oct
Dec

Dec

Dec
Sept

Sept

Sept
Apr'10
Apr '09

Apr '11

Jan'12
June

June
Jun

Feb

Feb

Feb
July

July

July
May

May

May
Mar

Mar
Jan

Jan


Recovery Outlook 3


The news from other countries makes me more confident the recession
will end soon: % agree strongly/slightly

46% 35% 36%
43% 43%42% 30%
40% 39% 33% 25% 21% 17% 25% 20%
35% 28% 27% 16% 16% 15% 13% 12% 12%16%
18% 20% 11%
14%
Nov

Aug

Nov

Aug

Nov
Oct

Oct
Dec

Dec

Dec
Sept

Sept
Apr '10

Apr '11

Jan'12
June

June
Feb

Feb

Feb
Oct '09

July

July
May

May
Mar

Mar
Jan

Jan
I am less worried about losing my job than I was before:

22% 21% 22% 21% 18% 23% 20% 21% 21% 18% 18% 17% 21% 17% 19% 19%
16% 15% 15% 18% 15% 15%
22% 20% 17%
20% 15% 17%
13%
Nov

Aug

Nov

Aug

Nov
Oct

Oct
Dec

Dec

Dec
Sept

Sept
Apr'10

Apr '11

Jan'12
June

June
Feb

Feb

Feb
Oct '09

July

July
May

May
Mar

Mar
Jan

Jan


Job Issues
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:
“I am less worried about losing my job than I was before”

ABC1 C2DE
F50+ F50-
Weighted Sample 1001 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 524

Strongly Agree 8% 10% 6% 8% 12% 7% 7% 6% 9% 7%

Slightly Agree 11% 13% 8% 10% 16% 15% 11% 5% 12% 10%

Neither/Nor 25% 25% 24% 25% 21% 26% 26% 26% 28% 21%

Slightly Disagree 14% 13% 16% 12% 13% 16% 19% 12% 17% 11%

Strongly Disagree 23% 22% 24% 21% 26% 28% 25% 17% 19% 27%


Financial Sentiment Indicators

% of Irish adults who agree with each statement: February 2010, 2011, 2012 & January 2012

I am more relaxed about I am saving a lot more
spending money than I than before because of
Impact on: was a few months ago the recession
•Spending
•Saving
29%
•Debt 18% 14% 14% 17% 26% 27% 24%

•Borrowing
Feb'10 Feb'11 Jan'12 Feb'12 Feb'10 Feb'11 Jan'12 Feb'12

Now is a good time to
Paying off debts is my I would be happy to buy a house for those
main financial priority borrow from a bank if I who want to
need to
62% 61% 57% 57% 62% 61% 61%
58%

29% 24% 24% 26%

Feb'10 Feb'11 Jan'12 Feb'12 Feb'10 Feb'11 Jan'12 Feb'12 Feb'10 Feb'11 Jan'12 Feb'12


Room for a View
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:
“I think that now is a good time to buy a house for those who want to”

ABC1 C2DE
F50+ F50-
Weighted Sample 1001 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 524

Strongly Agree 31% 32% 31% 28% 32% 28% 36% 32% 29% 33%

Slightly Agree 29% 30% 29% 27% 31% 33% 22% 30% 30% 28%

Neither/Nor 11% 10% 11% 17% 10% 8% 11% 9% 11% 11%

Slightly Disagree 11% 12% 9% 8% 11% 15% 7% 11% 12% 10%

Strongly Disagree 13% 12% 14% 11% 11% 11% 22% 14% 12% 15%


The Mood of the Nation 1

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to February 2012
70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry
10%

0%

Jan '12
June

June
Nov
Dec

July

Nov
Dec

July

Nov
Dec
Apr '09

Apr '10

Apr '11
Oct

Oct

Oct
Aug

Aug

Aug
Feb

Feb

Feb
Sept

Sept

Sept
May
Jun

Jan

Mar

Jan

Mar
Jul

May

May

The Mood of the Nation 2

% saying Yes: April 2009 to February 2012

40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
5%
0%
Aug

Aug

Aug
Feb

Feb

Feb
June
Jun
Jul

Jan

Jan

Jan '12
Mar

Mar

May
May

May
Apr '09

Apr '10

Apr '11
Oct

July

Oct

July

Oct
Sept

Nov
Dec

Sept

Nov
Dec

Sept

Nov
Dec
June


Changing Moods

% saying Yes: February 2012
ABC1 C2DE
F50+ F50-
Weighted Sample 1001 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 524
Enjoyment 55% 57% 52% 49% 57% 46% 60% 61% 60% 51%

Happiness 51% 50% 51% 62% 48% 41% 54% 50% 54% 48%

Stress 41% 41% 42% 51% 45% 51% 41% 25% 40% 42%

Worry 38% 37% 40% 41% 42% 45% 35% 31% 36% 40%

Anxiety 29% 28% 31% 24% 34% 29% 30% 28% 30% 29%
Boredom 24% 25% 24% 48% 29% 22% 17% 11% 25% 24%
Physical Pain 22% 22% 21% 17% 21% 22% 23% 24% 17% 26%

Sadness 18% 19% 17% 20% 23% 16% 16% 16% 18% 19%

Anger 15% 19% 11% 15% 17% 16% 19% 10% 15% 15%

Fear 10% 11% 9% 8% 15% 11% 9% 6% 9% 11%


Seasons and Hope

The February results for the Economic
Recovery Index signal a steady, albeit modest
improvement in several component measures.

Especially encouraging is the improvement in
indicators relating to people’s perceptions of
how well placed they are to weather the
continuing recession.

As ever, the recession is not evenly distributed:
older, middle aged adults are generally more
negative than younger age groups.

The results are tentative, but a continuation of
this trend into March may well signal better
momentum at the start of 2012 than we saw in
late 2011 – and finally some good news for
Ireland’s hard-pressed marketers.


Drivers & Drinking

About Amárach Research

We are an independent market research
agency, providing a full range of research
services to our Irish and international clients.
Our team of 30 research & support staff have
worked with most of Ireland’s top 200
companies. Every year we survey over
100,000 people at home and abroad, as well
as running hundreds of focus groups.

Our experienced team of directors and
executives manage online, face-to-face and
cati surveys; as well as qualitative research
including focus groups, in-depths and
ethnographic studies. We also offer a unique
field-only service to universities and
international agencies.

Amárach Research is proud to be:

Trends Report

Call us on 01 410 5200 if you want your business to
bounce forward to success:

Mark Nolan Managing Director
or Michael McLoughlin Chief Executive
or Gerard O’Neill Chairman

for a confidential discussion about your needs and to
explore how we can help you succeed through world
class market research.

e. gerard.oneill@amarach.com
w. www.amarach.com
b. www.amarach.com/blog
t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

Ireland showing signs of economic recovery

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