2. Emotional Budget
Our December ERI caught the Irish consumer
at a stressful time – fieldwork literally coincided
with the announcement of the Government‟s
Budget 2013.
This can be seen in the indices for positive and
negative emotions in Ireland – the gap got a lot
closer this month: not a good sign coming up to
Christmas.
Nevertheless, the key indicators for spending,
saving and borrowing intentions did not
deteriorate on the previous month: so maybe
there‟ll be a Christmas surge at the shops yet.
As a special Christmas present to our readers
we have broken out our ERI measures by a
range of sectors and companies so you can
gauge how well your customers – and your
competitors‟ – are doing at the end of 2012.
Economic Recovery Index 2
3. The Emotional Recovery
We have been reporting our monthly
Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.
We set out three years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our „emotional progress‟ towards
recovery alongside our „economic progress‟.
Our tracking research has shown the
remarkable emotional strength of the Irish
people, who have consistently reported
„happiness‟ and „enjoyment‟ as their two most
frequently experienced emotions.
This report summarises our Economic
Recovery Index results from April 2009 to
December 2012.
The most recent fieldwork was conducted
during 1st to 8th December 2012 inclusive.
Economic Recovery Index 3
4. A Matter of Measurement
Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us
which one statement „best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now‟ (listed below)
Our ERI Index remained flat in December 2012, with nearly half feeling the economic situation
in Ireland is getting worse:
Nov’12: 0% Dec’12: 0%
Nov’12: 3% Dec’12: 3%
Nov’12: 47% Dec’12: 49% Nov’12: 20% Dec’12: 20%
Nov’12: 30% Dec’12: 28%
Economic Recovery Index 4
5. The Economic Recovery Index
Using the answers to the question on „stages of recovery‟ we have created the Economic
Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).
The ERI has continued to weaken steadily since July – though December‟s index is still up
on December 2011:
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Apr Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
'09 '10 '11 '12 '12
Source: Amárach Research, December 2012
Economic Recovery Index 5
6. Recovery Outlook 1
% of Irish adults who agree with each statement:
Source: Amárach Research, December 2012
Economic Recovery Index 6
7. Recovery Outlook 2
% of Irish adults who agree with each statement:
Source: Amárach Research, December 2012
Economic Recovery Index 7
8. Heads Down: 1
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by gender, household income &
presence and age of children):
“I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”
Has No Child Child
Under €30- €60-
December 2012 TOTAL Male Female €30k €60k €90k+ Child Child Under Over
€90k
-ren -ren 17 17
Weighted Sample 1003 496 507 353 322 114 40 605 399 345 337
Strongly Agree 8% 9% 6% 4% 9% 13% 29% 7% 9% 6% 8%
Slightly Agree 24% 27% 22% 16% 29% 41% 27% 23% 25% 18% 27%
Neither/Nor 13% 14% 12% 12% 13% 11% 14% 13% 14% 15% 10%
Slightly Disagree 26% 25% 27% 30% 26% 21% 20% 24% 28% 27% 23%
Strongly Disagree 27% 24% 30% 37% 22% 13% 7% 30% 22% 32% 30%
Source: Amárach Research, December 2012
Economic Recovery Index 8
9. Heads Down: 2
% of Irish adults – by main bank, supermarket, mobile network and daily newspaper –
who agree/disagree with the statement:
“I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”
Irish
Dunne Voda Irish Irish
December 2012 Total AIB BOI PTSB Tesco
Stores
Aldi O2
fone
3
Times Indo
Daily
Mail
Weighted Sample 1003 357 302 156 360 184 171 237 365 90 205 210 68
Strongly Agree 8% 9% 9% 5% 8% 8% 5% 10% 7% 4% 14% 14% 7%
Slightly Agree 24% 23% 26% 23% 26% 29% 21% 23% 25% 23% 31% 27% 18%
Neither/Nor 13% 12% 12% 14% 13% 10% 11% 12% 15% 14% 13% 11% 15%
Slightly Disagree 26% 27% 24% 19% 26% 27% 29% 31% 24% 17% 25% 28% 29%
Strongly Disagree 27% 27% 24% 37% 26% 24% 31% 23% 28% 36% 15% 19% 26%
Source: Amárach Research, December 2012
Economic Recovery Index 9
10. Heads Down: 3
% of Irish adults – by TV service provider, electricity provider, health insurer and customers of
other organisations – who agree/disagree with the statement:
“I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”
Saor Electric Bord Irish
December 2012 Total Sky UPC
-view Ireland
Airtricity
Gais
VHI Aviva Liberty
Life
eircom
Weighted Sample 1003 410 277 151 536 258 187 233 109 79 277 332
Strongly Agree 8% 8% 9% 7% 8% 8% 5% 11% 9% 9% 13% 9%
Slightly Agree 24% 23% 26% 27% 24% 27% 22% 38% 33% 23% 33% 30%
Neither/Nor 13% 12% 15% 12% 11% 15% 15% 9% 16% 11% 11% 12%
Slightly Disagree 26% 22% 24% 34% 26% 27% 25% 22% 26% 26% 23% 23%
Strongly Disagree 27% 33% 24% 19% 29% 20% 33% 18% 13% 29% 18% 24%
Source: Amárach Research, December 2012
Economic Recovery Index 10
11. Financial Sentiment Indicators
% of Irish adults who agree with each statement: December 2010, 2011, 2012 & November 2012
I am more relaxed about I am saving a lot more
Impact on: spending money than I than before because of the
•Spending was a few months ago recession
•Saving
•Debt 11% 14% 16% 15% 23% 27% 25% 22%
•Borrowing
Dec'10 Dec'11 Nov'12 Dec'12
Dec'10 Dec'11 Nov'12 Dec'12
Paying off debts is my I would be happy to Now is a good time to
main financial priority borrow from a bank if I buy a house for those
need to who want to
58% 56% 53% 54% 61% 62%
55% 54%
21% 22% 22% 22%
Dec'10 Dec'11 Nov'12 Dec'12 Dec'10 Dec'11 Nov'12 Dec'12
Dec'10 Dec'11 Nov'12 Dec'12
Source: Amárach Research, December 2012
Economic Recovery Index 11
12. Spendthrift: 1
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:
“I am more relaxed about spending than I was a few months ago”
Has No Child Child
Under €30- €60-
December 2012 TOTAL Male Female €30k €60k €90k+ Child Child Under Over
€90k
-ren -ren 17 17
Weighted Sample 1003 496 507 353 322 114 40 605 399 345 337
Strongly Agree 4% 5% 3% 3% 5% 5% 10% 4% 4% 5% 2%
Slightly Agree 11% 11% 10% 9% 9% 18% 15% 10% 12% 9% 9%
Neither/Nor 15% 15% 14% 12% 16% 19% 15% 14% 17% 9% 15%
Slightly Disagree 28% 30% 26% 25% 34% 26% 39% 25% 32% 24% 27%
Strongly Disagree 42% 37% 47% 51% 35% 32% 21% 47% 35% 51% 46%
Source: Amárach Research, December 2012
Economic Recovery Index 12
13. Spendthrift: 2
% of Irish adults – by main bank, supermarket, mobile network and daily newspaper –
who agree/disagree with the statement:
“I am more relaxed about spending than I was a few months ago”
Irish
Dunne Voda Irish Irish
December 2012 Total AIB BOI PTSB Tesco
Stores
Aldi O2
fone
3
Times Indo
Daily
Mail
Weighted Sample 1003 357 302 156 360 184 171 237 365 90 205 210 68
Strongly Agree 4% 4% 5% 3% 5% 4% 2% 3% 3% 3% 5% 7% 5%
Slightly Agree 11% 13% 11% 8% 9% 11% 11% 11% 11% 9% 16% 9% 11%
Neither/Nor 15% 14% 16% 14% 15% 15% 11% 17% 15% 12% 16% 16% 15%
Slightly Disagree 28% 28% 28% 22% 32% 34% 24% 27% 28% 25% 33% 24% 21%
Strongly Disagree 42% 41% 39% 52% 39% 36% 51% 41% 42% 49% 30% 43% 48%
Source: Amárach Research, December 2012
Economic Recovery Index 13
14. Spendthrift: 3
% of Irish adults – by TV service provider, electricity provider, health insurer and customers of
other organisations – who agree/disagree with the statement:
“I am more relaxed about spending than I was a few months ago”
Saor Electric Bord Irish
December 2012 Total Sky UPC
-view Ireland
Airtricity
Gais
VHI Aviva Liberty
Life
eircom
Weighted Sample 1003 410 277 151 536 258 187 233 109 79 277 332
Strongly Agree 4% 4% 6% 3% 4% 4% 5% 4% 5% 5% 5% 4%
Slightly Agree 11% 11% 10% 7% 11% 10% 11% 14% 13% 13% 15% 14%
Neither/Nor 15% 11% 19% 19% 15% 15% 13% 18% 19% 12% 20% 17%
Slightly Disagree 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 31% 24% 34% 27% 29% 27% 28%
Strongly Disagree 42% 45% 37% 43% 43% 39% 46% 30% 34% 41% 33% 37%
Source: Amárach Research, December 2012
Economic Recovery Index 14
15. The Mood of the Nation 1
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to December 2012
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry
10%
0%
May
May
July
July
July
Apr'12
Oct
Oct
Oct
Jul
Aug
Oct
Aug
Aug
Aug
Jun
Jan
Jan
Jan
Nov
Dec
Sept
Feb
Mar
Nov
Dec
Feb
Mar
Nov
Dec
Sept
June
June
Feb
Mar
Nov
Dec
Sept
June
Sept
Apr '09
Apr '10
Apr '11
May
May
Source: Amárach Research, December 2012
Economic Recovery Index 15
16. The Mood of the Nation 2
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to December 2012
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
5%
0%
July
July
July
Nov
Feb
Nov
Nov
Nov
Feb
Feb
Sept
Aug
Sept
Aug
Aug
Sept
Aug
Sept
May
May
May
May
Jul
Apr '11
Apr'12
Jun
Jan
Mar
Jan
Mar
June
Jan
Mar
June
Oct
Dec
Oct
Dec
Oct
Dec
Oct
Dec
Apr '09
Apr '10
June
Source: Amárach Research, December 2012
Economic Recovery Index 16
17. Changing Moods: 1
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: December 2012
Has No Child Child
Under €30- €60-
December 2012 TOTAL Male Female €30k €60k €90k+ Child Child Under Over
€90k
-ren -ren 17 17
Weighted Sample 1003 496 507 353 322 114 40 605 399 345 337
Enjoyment 49% 49% 49% 40% 53% 62% 65% 51% 47% 43% 56%
Happiness 47% 45% 49% 39% 46% 62% 59% 46% 47% 44% 47%
Stress 45% 43% 48% 45% 46% 46% 45% 43% 49% 49% 37%
Worry 42% 40% 45% 49% 39% 39% 45% 43% 41% 50% 37%
Anxiety 31% 26% 36% 32% 32% 33% 20% 31% 31% 35% 30%
Boredom 25% 26% 23% 26% 20% 30% 28% 20% 32% 24% 16%
Physical Pain 20% 19% 21% 20% 21% 21% 14% 22% 17% 20% 24%
Sadness 18% 14% 21% 21% 17% 14% 10% 17% 19% 16% 17%
Anger 16% 18% 14% 16% 13% 17% 21% 15% 17% 18% 13%
Fear 10% 11% 10% 11% 11% 9% 16% 10% 11% 12% 8%
Source: Amárach Research, December 2012
Economic Recovery Index 17
18. Changing Moods: 2
% of Irish adults – by main bank, supermarket, mobile network and daily newspaper:
did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? Yes: December 2012
Irish
December Dunne Voda Irish Irish
Total AIB BOI PTSB Tesco Aldi O2 3 Daily
2012 Stores fone Times Indo
Mail
Weighted Sample 1003 357 302 156 360 184 171 237 365 90 205 210 68
Enjoyment 49% 49% 51% 49% 47% 51% 45% 48% 52% 47% 57% 57% 48%
Happiness 47% 49% 47% 43% 47% 50% 41% 48% 47% 45% 52% 51% 54%
Stress 45% 49% 41% 48% 47% 42% 50% 45% 45% 52% 47% 43% 54%
Worry 42% 46% 41% 38% 41% 42% 48% 46% 37% 44% 39% 40% 49%
Anxiety 31% 30% 28% 31% 32% 31% 31% 32% 30% 36% 32% 27% 36%
Boredom 25% 25% 24% 21% 25% 26% 27% 20% 23% 30% 22% 24% 29%
Physical Pain 20% 24% 15% 20% 17% 21% 21% 19% 23% 20% 18% 16% 15%
Sadness 18% 17% 17% 20% 20% 18% 14% 16% 19% 18% 16% 15% 14%
Anger 16% 15% 16% 14% 17% 18% 18% 13% 18% 19% 18% 16% 11%
Fear 10% 11% 10% 10% 14% 8% 8% 10% 7% 11% 13% 12% 11%
Source: Amárach Research, December 2012
Economic Recovery Index 18
19. Changing Moods: 3
% of Irish adults – by TV service provider, electricity provider, health insurer and customers of
other organisations: did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? Yes:
December 2012
December Saor Electric Bord Irish
Total Sky UPC Airtricity VHI Aviva Liberty eircom
2012 -view Ireland Gais Life
Weighted Sample 1003 410 277 151 536 258 187 233 109 79 277 332
Enjoyment 49% 51% 52% 51% 50% 52% 46% 58% 56% 47% 61% 53%
Happiness 47% 47% 49% 47% 49% 43% 45% 56% 53% 45% 52% 47%
Stress 45% 45% 45% 49% 44% 44% 51% 46% 33% 50% 32% 43%
Worry 42% 45% 40% 42% 42% 40% 46% 37% 41% 34% 29% 38%
Anxiety 31% 32% 34% 28% 30% 30% 37% 32% 29% 38% 29% 30%
Boredom 25% 23% 23% 28% 25% 21% 27% 20% 18% 19% 20% 20%
Physical Pain 20% 22% 16% 21% 22% 21% 15% 22% 15% 18% 20% 23%
Sadness 18% 15% 20% 16% 17% 17% 21% 15% 11% 16% 14% 14%
Anger 16% 15% 15% 19% 15% 17% 17% 13% 16% 10% 12% 14%
Fear 10% 12% 9% 10% 9% 10% 14% 10% 12% 5% 9% 11%
Economic Recovery Index Source: Amárach Research, December 2012 19
20. ERI Resources
We have created a dedicated resource
on the Amárach website for those
interested in exploring our Economic
Recovery Index further.
It includes links to previous issues as
well as to a spreadsheet containing
monthly values for all the component
parts of the ERI – and more besides –
going right back to April 2009.
There is also a link to a special data
visualisation facility we have created in
partnership with Delphi Analytics.
Economic Recovery Index 20
21. Drivers & Drinking
About Amárach
Amárach Research is an independent market
research agency, providing a full range of
research services to our Irish and international
clients. Amárach specialises in turning
information into insight; and insight into foresight.
Amárach‟s experienced team of 30 directors and
executives manage online, face-to-face and cati
surveys (through our call centre); as well as
qualitative research including focus groups, in-
depths and ethnographic studies. We also
delivers a world class field-only service to
universities and international agencies.
Over nearly 25 years, Amárach has pioneered
innovative research techniques and reported on
Irish social, lifestyle and tech trends since the
1980s. Amárach invests heavily in understanding
current Irish consumer and business trends, and
shares numerous, free reports and presentations
via our blog and slideshare sites, linked via our
main website: www.amarach.com
22. Trends Report
Call us on 01 410 5200 if you want your business to
bounce forward to success:
Mark Nolan Managing Director
or Michael McLoughlin Chief Executive
or Gerard O’Neill Chairman
for a confidential discussion about your needs and to
explore how we can help you succeed through world
class market research.
e. gerard.oneill@amarach.com
w. www.amarach.com
b. www.amarach.com/blog
t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch