A monthly survey of 1,000 Irish adults about their views on the economy, financial circumstances and emotional wellbeing.

1. The Economic Recovery Index
An Amárach Research Briefing
October Index Results
The AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator
January 2011 Results
© Amárach Research 2009

2. 2
Timing Recovery
Business Cycle Peaks & Troughs
• All recessions end in recovery – so will this one
• The biggest forecasting challenge is timing:
when do we know the recession is over and
recovery has started?
• Amárach Research has developed the
Recovery Indicator to help us track the
economic cycle more closely
• This report summarises the Recovery
Indicator results for April 2009 (when it began)
to January 2011
• The fieldwork was conducted 10th-17th
January 2011

3. 3
A Matter of Measurement
• Every month we survey a representative sample of 1,000 adults – split 850 online and
150 face-to-face to ensure coverage of the total population – and ask them to tell us
which statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’
• Each statement corresponds to a different stage in the economic cycle

4. 4
A Matter of Measurement
• January 2011 has seen a modest recovery from December 2010 in terms the prospects
for recovery, but remains low relative to this time last year.
April’09 0% Jan’11 1%
April’09 1% Jan’11 2%
April’09 77% Jan‘11 56% April’09 8% Jan’11 18%
April’09 14% Jan’11 23%

5. 5
AIB-Amárach Recovery Indicator
• Using the answers to the survey we have created the Recovery Indicator, which ranges
from 0 to 100 (0 = worsening recession; 100 = back to peak).
• The Indicator has recovered all the ground lost during November/December 2010.
30
27.1 26
25 25.3 24
22.7 23.8 23.8
23.5
20 19.6 19.2
17.8 18.4 17.8 18.3
17 17.3
16.3
15 15
12
10
8.3
7.3
5
0
Apr Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan
'09 '10 '10 '11

6. 6
Recovery Outlook 1
Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time:
% agree strongly/slightly
52% 42%
41% 43% 39%
41%44% 42%43% 46% 48% 41% 42% 43% 42% 42%
34% 31% 26%
23%
26% 18%
Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan
'09 '10 '11
I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation:
% agree strongly/slightly
61% 54% 55%
65% 55%
57% 59% 58% 60% 62% 51% 48%
51% 55% 54%52% 53% 50% 46% 44% 33% 41%
Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan
'09 '10 '11

7. 7
Recovery Outlook 2
I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession:
% agree strongly/slightly
45% 45% 50% 47%
41% 41%
48% 48%51% 47%48% 48% 46% 47% 43% 47% 45% 46% 39%
45% 32% 34%
Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan
'09 '10 '11
Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it
is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly
62% 61% 60% 61% 60% 56% 56% 55%53% 55% 55% 53%
59% 49%
52% 45% 45%
52% 53% 51% 50% 54%
Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan
'09 '10 '11

8. 8
Financial Sentiment Indicators from the ARI Survey
Percent of adults who agree with each statement: December 2010 & January 2011
I am more relaxed about I am saving a lot more
spending money than I than before because of
Impact on: was a few months ago the recession
•Spending
•Saving
23%
•Debt 11% 13%
22%
•Borrowing
Dec '10 Jan '11 Dec '10 Jan '11
Paying off debts is my Now is a good time to buy
main financial priority I would be happy to a house for those who
borrow from a bank if I want to
58% 59% need to
55% 58%
21% 22%
Dec '10 Jan '11 Dec '10 Jan '11 Dec '10 Jan '11

9. 9
The Mood of the Nation 1
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
April 2009 to January 2011
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry
10%
0%
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan
'09 '10 '10 '11

10. 10
The Mood of the Nation 2
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
April 2009 to January 2011
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10% Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
5%
0%
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan
'09 '10 '10 '11

11. 11
Amárach Contact Details
Gerard O’Neill - Chairman
Amárach Research
11 Kingswood Business Centre
Citywest Business Campus
Dublin 24
T. (01) 410 5200
E. gerard.oneill@amarach.com
W. www.amarach.com
B. www.amarach.com/blog