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Transboundary flood risk management
- 2. Titel
CV Aline te Linde
1995 – 2001 Earth Sciences, VU University Amsterdam
MSc hydrology
2002 – 2007 WL | Delft Hydraulics
Integrated Water Management
2008 – 2012 Deltares
Unit Scenarios and Policy Analysis
2006 – present Institute for Environmental Studies, VU A’dam
PhD - 2011
2012 – present Twynstra Gudde Consultants and Managers
Advisory group Water
© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 2
- 3. Titel
http://www.ubvu.vu.nl
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- 8. Titel
Water manager has four questions
1. How often does this happen?
2. What is the expected damage?
3. Does this change in the future?
4. Which measures can I take?
Flood risk = probabiliy x damage
Scenarios
– Climate change
– Socio-economic / land use
© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 8
- 9. Titel
Titel
Text
Rhine River basin
length: 1320 km surface area: 185.000 km2
shipping > 200 t/year 7 countries
58 million inhabitants
11 million in flood prone areas
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- 11. Titel
Land use Water depth Potential damage
Text
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Titel
Text
Risk = probability x damage
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Titel
Text
Risk = probability x damage
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Titel
Text
Increase flood risk entire
River basin:
54 – 230% in 2030
(reference = 2000)
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- 17. Titel
Cross-boundary low flows
NL = most downstream country
Alpine water towers
Low flows: ~90 % of Rhine discharge from the Alps
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- 18. Titel
Cross-boundary approach
EU legislation for all countries
– EU Water Framework Directive (2000)
commits European Union member states to achieve good qualitative and
quantitative status of all water bodies by 2015
– EU Floods Directive (2007)
“Member States shall furthermore coordinate their flood risk management
practices in shared river basins, […] and shall in solidarity not undertake
measures that would increase the flood risk in neighbouring countries.”
Obviously relevant for downstream countries
However,
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- 19. Titel
The Dutch Delta Programme
“The object of the new-style Delta Plan (the Delta Works of the
future) is to protect our country against high water and keep
our freshwater supply up to standard, now and in the future.”
http://www.deltacommissaris.nl/english/
Quite revolutionary:
– Integrated plan (combine functions and scales)
– Act now, and not after a next flooding disaster
– Long-term planning
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- 20. Titel
Delta Programme
– 3 Generic Programmes
• Safety
• Fresh water
• New urban developments and
restructuring
– 6 Area-based sub-programmes
– Delta Commissioner and small
staff
– 5 Delta Decisions in 2015
– Delta Law
– Delta Fund
– 2050 en 2100
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- 21. Titel
Scope is national
Rhine and Meuse models start at the Dutch border
– Water safety
– Low flow / drought analysis
Climate scenarios projections for future discharge regime Rhine
and Meuse (models do include whole basin)
Possibility of cross-boundary flooding – not taken into account
Some interest now in upstream water use Rhine basin
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- 22. Titel
Conclusion
I am puzzled by the national scope of the Delta Programme
Strong belief in the design discharge, ignoring uncertainties,
instead of debating how to deal with uncertainty in extreme
discharge estimates (probability and volume)
Ignor
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