This document discusses transboundary flood risk management in the Rhine River basin. It summarizes that the Rhine flows through 7 countries and has a drainage area of 185,000 square kilometers. Approximately 11 million people live in flood-prone areas along the river. The presentation notes that flood risk is calculated as the probability of flooding multiplied by the expected damage. It argues that the Dutch Delta Programme currently takes a conservative approach to flood risk that does not sufficiently consider potential cross-border flooding impacts or uncertainties related to climate change.

1. Transboundary flood risk management
The Rhine basin
Nijmegen
20 september 2012
Aline te Linde

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CV Aline te Linde
1995 – 2001 Earth Sciences, VU University Amsterdam
MSc hydrology
2002 – 2007 WL | Delft Hydraulics
Integrated Water Management
2008 – 2012 Deltares
Unit Scenarios and Policy Analysis
2006 – present Institute for Environmental Studies, VU A’dam
PhD - 2011
2012 – present Twynstra Gudde Consultants and Managers
Advisory group Water
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http://www.ubvu.vu.nl
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River manager has four questions
1. How often does this happen?
2. What is the expected damage?
3. Does this change in the future?
4. Which measures can I take?
Flood risk = probabiliy x damage
Scenarios
– Climate change
– Socio-economic / land use
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Rhine River basin
length: 1320 km surface area: 185.000 km2
shipping > 200 t/year 7 countries
58 million inhabitants
11 million in flood prone areas
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Design discharge Lobith
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19 september 2012

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Land use Water depth Potential damage
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Risk = probability x damage
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Risk = probability x damage
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Increase flood risk entire
River basin:
54 – 230% in 2030
(reference = 2000)
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Transboundary floods
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1926
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Transboundary low flows
NL = most downstream country
Alpine water towers
Low flows: ~90 % of Rhine discharge from the Alps
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Transboundary policy
EU legislation for all countries
– EU Water Framework Directive (2000)
commits European Union member states to achieve good qualitative and
quantitative status of all water bodies by 2015
– EU Floods Directive (2007)
“Member States shall furthermore coordinate their flood risk management practices
in shared river basins, […] and shall in solidarity not undertake measures that
would increase the flood risk in neighbouring countries.”
Transboundary cooperation obviously relevant for downstream
countries , however
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The Dutch Delta Programme
“The object of the new-style Delta Plan (the Delta Works of the future)
is to protect our country against high water and keep our
freshwater supply up to standard, now and in the future.”
http://www.deltacommissaris.nl/english/
Quite revolutionary:
– Integrated plan (combine functions and scales)
– Act now, and not after a next flooding disaster
– Long-term planning
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Delta Programme
– 3 Generic Programmes
• Safety
• Fresh water
• New urban developments and
restructuring
– 6 Area-based sub-programmes
– Delta Commissioner and small
staff
– 5 Delta Decisions in 2015
– Delta Law
– Delta Fund
– 2050 en 2100
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Scope is national
– Models of Rhine, Meuse and smaller rivers start at the Dutch
border
– Water safety
– Low flow / drought analysis
– Possibility of cross-boundary flooding not taken into account
Except:
– Climate scenarios projections for future discharge regime
(Rhine and Meuse models do include whole basin)
– Some interest now in upstream water use Rhine basin
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Final remarks
River management DP rather conservative approach, not
transboundary
Very strong believe in exact design discharge at the border,
while in fact this is very uncertain:
1. High safety norm – extreme value statistics
2. Impact of climate change – scenarios / bandwidth
3. Potential of cross-boundary flooding
Why a national scope of the Delta Programme and Delta law?
Does this result in optimal measures?
How does this link to transboundary European legislation?
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Aline te Linde
aln@tg.nl
www.twynstragudde.nl
www.deltares.nl
www.ivm.vu.nl
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