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Simulating flood-peak probability in the Rhine basin and the effect of climate change

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Presented at FloodRisk 2008, October 2, 2008, Oxford

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Simulating flood-peak probability in the Rhine basin and the effect of climate change Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) Aline te Linde (IVM - VU / Deltares) Jeroen Aerts (IVM - VU) Oxford – October 2, 2008
Outline ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Introduction ACER ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Rhine basin ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Introduction ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Flood management Climate change * (Kwadijk 1993, 1998; Middelkoop, 2001; Kleinn, 2003, 2005; Te Linde, 2007) Simulate low probability floods, combine impact of climate change impact of dike height
Method
Method - Hydrological modelling ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Field capacity Wilting point
GRADE – Generator of rainfall and discharge extremes ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],X Locations
Climate change impact Lobith – mean monthly change Transient run
Detention area – flooding
Extreme value analysis yearly max. Q – Gumbel fit ,[object Object],[object Object]
GEV distribution fit
Results
Conclusion ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
This reseach is part of a ‘Climate Changes Spatial Planning’ project Thank you Adaptive Capacity to Extreme events in the Rhine basin (ACER) More information on: www.klimaatvoorruimte.nl (english version) and www.adaptation.nlcer [email_address]

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Simulating flood-peak probability in the Rhine basin and the effect of climate change

  • 1. Simulating flood-peak probability in the Rhine basin and the effect of climate change Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) Aline te Linde (IVM - VU / Deltares) Jeroen Aerts (IVM - VU) Oxford – October 2, 2008
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  • 9. Climate change impact Lobith – mean monthly change Transient run
  • 10. Detention area – flooding
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  • 15. This reseach is part of a ‘Climate Changes Spatial Planning’ project Thank you Adaptive Capacity to Extreme events in the Rhine basin (ACER) More information on: www.klimaatvoorruimte.nl (english version) and www.adaptation.nlcer [email_address]