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Seismic hazard: quake hazards & forecasting

Structure of talk ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Hazardous phenomena generated by earthquakes ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Ground shaking ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Kobe 1995

More on duration of strong motion ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],F Intensity of shaking Duration of shaking Increasing distance from fault

Duration and peak acceleration of strong motion

Local influences on ground shaking ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

More on ground conditions Ground conditions can also affect seismic intensity

The clay problem (Mexico City 1985) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Mexico City 1985

Ground lurching & displacement ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],San Francisco 1906

Differential ground settlement ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Izmit 1999

Liquefaction ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Void collapse Pore pressure increases result Original sediment structure

More about liquefaction ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Sand boils result from expelled water

Examples of liquefaction ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Niigata (Japan 1964)

Maximum possible distances for liquefaction M s 8.5 20 km 125 km 650 km 1500 km M s 8 M s 7 M s 6

Seismogenic mass movements ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Lateral spread San Francisco 1906

Other major seismogenic landslides Huascaran (Peru 1970) Sherman glacier (Alaska 1964)

Seiches & tsunami ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Hilo (Hawaii) 1946

Some notable seismogenic tsunami

Destructive capacity of tsunami ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Aitape (PNG) 1998

Tsunamigenic earthquakes ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Submarine slide simulation (PNG 1998)

Tsunami magnitude scale (Japan)

Structural collapse ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Pancake collapse of concrete building (Gujarat 2001)

More on structural collapse ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Collapse of rock and cement buildings (Gujarat 2001)

Solutions to structural collapse ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Earthquake loss-susceptibility by construction type NSD = Non-seismic design Modified Mercalli Intensity Average damage (%)

Fire-following quake ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],San Francisco 1906

Fire following Japanese quakes ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Kobe Tokyo

Floods & dam bursts ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Lower San Fernando Dam (California) 1971

Forecasting earthquakes ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

San Andreas example ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Problems with forecasting ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Cascadia subd. zone

The Seismic Gap concept ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Istanbul seismic gap

Seismic intensity forecasting ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Seismic intensity forecast map - Tokai (Japan)

Probabilistic forecasting ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Strain measurement and forecasting ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Calculating probabilities ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Magnitude 6 Amount of slip Time

The quake probability histogram ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Quake frequency Recurrence time T1 T2 T1 T2

The quake probability histogram & the San Andreas ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Predicting earthquakes ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Proposed earthquake precursors ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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