Weekly Review 27.12.08

Weekly Review
December 27, 2008

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December 27, 2008

Sensex sinks back below 10k on profit booking, weak global cues
The Indian stock markets opened this holiday truncated week in the backdrop of a strong rally over the previous two weeks
wherein the Sensex had gained almost 13%. During this part of the year, usually FIIs across the globe are not very active players
in the markets as they are vactioning on account of Christmas. However, this time round, FIIs opted to book some profits in wake
of the continued 'not so good' news on the global front. While the US consumer spending was down in Nov 2008 for the fifth
consecutive month, albeit better than forecasts, the US unemployment rate came in at 26-year highs. Japan's auto production
also registered its steepest drop in the last 40 years in Nov 2008 owing to the US slowdown. All this was not taken kindly by market
participants as concerns pertaining to the bleak global economic outlook resurfaced.
Profit booking marked the week at the Indian bourses with indices closing negative in all the 4 trading sessions of the week. Poor
global sentiments and derivatives expiry added to the weakness and volatility. However, intra-day intermittent rallies were
witnessed on expectations of another interest rate cut by the RBI and likely announcement of a second fiscal stimulus package by
the government. But, these did not sustain. The FIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs620cr in the first 3 trading sessions of the
week, provisional numbers indicate they were net sellers of Rs345cr in the cash market on Friday as well.
For the week, the BSE Sensex lost 7.6%, while the NSE Nifty lost 7.2%. Inflation figure for the week ended December 13, 2008
came in lower at 6.61% (6.84%), falling further to a 9-month low. This figure is expected to dip even more in the coming weeks, as
a slowing global and domestic economy could result in lower demand and inflation settling at 3-4% levels by March 2009. Thus,
inflation, which till recently was a matter of concern with crude prices hovering close to US $150/barrel mark, is no longer a
concern. Boosting investment, demand and credit availability are the issues that need to be emphasised at the current juncture
and the recent fiscal and monetary stimulus packages are ample reflections of this. We believe even though In the medium term
there would be a correction in the growth rate of the Indian economy, going forward, given favourable demographics and huge
middle class, the structural growth story of India has not changed and we remain positive on the 'India Story'.
BSE Oil and Gas Index - Short-term non-enthusing, long-term gains intact
The BSE Oil and Gas Index closed in the red this week losing 8.3% week-over-week (wow) and under-performing the Sensex,
which ended 7.6% lower. RIL (55.9% weightage in the index) lost a whopping 10.2%, ONGC (16.2% weightage) 9.2%, GAIL (6.0%
weightage) 4.9% and RPL (5.6% weightage) 4.7%. Oil marketing companies (OMCs) outperformed the Index with IOC (3.2%
weightage) losing just 0.8%, BPCL (2.9% weightage) 2.8% and HPCL (2.7% weightage) 1.9%. Cairn India (3.6% weightage) was
the only oil stock that ended 4.5% higher due to crude gaining 11.9% wow. Global slowdown has seen a decline in crude prices,
petrochem margins and GRMs, which has impacted upstream companies (ONGC and Cairn India) and integrated oil companies
like RIL. However, softening crude prices and strong Rupee v/s the USD has helped OMCs. We believe it would be status quo for
upstream, refining and petrochem companies in the near term, though in the medium term the segment offers good prospects.
Note: Stock Prices are as on Report release date;
FII activity during the Week Rs crore Refer all Detailed Reports on Angel website
As Cash Stock Index Net
on (Equity) Futures Futures Activity
Dec 19 463 (51) 324 735
Indices Jan Dec. Dec. Weekly YTD
Dec 22 (224) (40) (489) (752)
01, 08 19, 08 26, 08 (% chg)
Dec 23 (271) (385) (553) (1,209) BSE 30 20,287 10,100 9,329 (7.6) (54.0)
Dec 24 (119) 455 (921) (584) NSE 6,139 3,078 2,857 (7.2) (53.5)
Nasdaq 2,652 1,564 1,530 (2.2) (42.3)
Net (151) (20) (1,638) (1,810)
DOW 13,265 8,579 8,516 (0.7) (35.8)
Mutual Fund activity during the Week Rs crore Nikkei 15,308 8,589 8,740 1.8 (42.9)
As on Purchase Sales Net Activity (Equity)
HangSeng 27,813 15,128 14,184 (6.2) (49.0)
Dec 19 905 610 295 Straits Times 3,482 1,795 1,726 (3.9) (50.4)
Dec 22 476 313 163 Shanghai Composite 5,262 2,018 1,852 (8.3) (64.8)
Dec 23 345 441 (96) KLSE Composite 1,445 876 867 (1.0) (40.0)
Jakarta Composite 2,746 1,348 1,341 (0.5) (51.2)
Dec 24 736 399 337 KOSPI Composite 1,897 1,181 1,118 (5.3) (41.1)
Net 2,461 1,763 699 Sectoral Indices
BANKEX 11,418 5,631 5,211 (7.5) (54.4)
BSE AUTO 5,667 2,562 2,364 (7.7) (58.3)
BSE IT 4,530 2,347 2,149 (8.4) (52.5)
BSE PSU 10,468 5,394 5,149 (4.5) (50.8)

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Fundamental Focus

Price - Rs101
Indraprastha Gas - Neutral

Company Update

Peaking out domestic gas. This leaves them with R-LNG as the only option
for incremental growth. However, this would increase gas cost
Indraprastha Gas (IGL), a retail gas distribution company, has
for incumbent CGD players like IGL.
underperformed the benchmark indices as well as the Oil and
Gas index over the last 2-3 years by a substantial margin. The Authorisation issues impact IGL’s expansion plans: IGL
scenario continues to be bleak for IGL owing to headwinds has formed a joint venture with Siti Energy and plans to expand
such as higher capital expenditure and slowdown in CNG into new geographies such as Ghaziabad, Panipat and Sonipat
conversions impacting Earnings growth going ahead. in Haryana on nomination basis. However, PNGRB guidelines
Declining Return Ratios and continuance of Regulatory could impact IGL's expansion plans significantly as the
overhang over the company’s operations is also likely to regulator plans to offer newer geographies on competitive
prevent re-rating of the stock. bidding basis. Thus, delay in authorisation and intensifying
competition could affect IGL's expansion plans.
Regulations to rein in excessive Margins: On account of
enjoying monopolistic position in the sector and unregulated Outlook and Valuation
margins, IGL has been registering high EBITDA Margins in
IGL is currently on a capex spree (it is almost doubling its GFA
excess of 40% and RoCE ranging from 38% to 45%. However,
capacity over the next two years) in wake of the upcoming
the period of unregulated Margins is about to cease with the
Commonwealth Games and increasing demand for CNG.
PNGRB guidelines ushering in regulations to limit Network
However, we continue to have concerns over IGL’s pricing policy
and Compression tariffs with Marketing Margins being left out
due to which it has been earning exorbitant margins. We have
presuming it will be self-regulated due to competitive forces.
valued IGL using DCF methodology and have arrived at a
Further, IGL’s Marketing exclusivity is also likely to end post
fair value of Rs105. At Rs101, the stock is trading at 7.0x and
FY2011. Thereon, a level playing field for all players who would
6.9x FY2009E and FY2010E Earnings. We believe IGL’s
see IGL sourcing gas at higher prices leading to squeeze in it’s
inability to pass through higher gas costs and declining Return
Marketing Margins.
Ratios are likely to be a drag on its performance going ahead.
Unjustified returns for low-risk business model: On Hence, we remain Neutral on the stock.
account of earning super-normal returns - generated returns of
more than 42% on core assets in FY2008 - IGL has fully Key Financials
recovered its investments. IGL’s returns exceed the risk-return Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009E FY2010E
trade off involved in the city gas distribution (CGD) business.
Net Sales 614.1 706.0 844.1 939.5
However, going ahead, we believe such super-normal returns
would temper due to increase in gas costs, competition or the % chg 17.9 15.0 19.6 11.3
regulator interfering to cap the returns. Net Profit 138.0 174.5 202.5 204.6
APM gas price hike imminent: IGL gets 2 mmscmd of APM % chg 30.0 26.5 16.1 1.1
gas (1.9 mmscmd for CNG and 0.1 mmscmd for PNG) for its
OPM (%) 41.6 42.5 41.9 40.8
operations in the NCT region of Delhi, which helps it post
robust performance. However, going ahead, declining APM gas EPS (Rs) 9.9 12.5 14.5 14.6
production and exhaustion of current supply allocation is likely P/E (x) 10.2 8.1 7.0 6.9
to increase gas prices for the company. Similarly, the supply
P/BV (x) 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.7
contract with GAIL is also due to renewal towards end CY2010,
which could also increase gas costs for the company. RoE (%) 29.5 30.3 28.8 24.8
RoCE (%) 41.8 41.2 40.1 34.6
Gas Utilisation Policy a dampner to CGD business: The
recently announced Gas Utilisation Policy (GUP) favours the EV/Sales (x) 2.2 1.8 1.5 1.4
Power and Fertiliser industry over the CGD business as first EV/EBITDA (x) 5.4 4.2 3.6 3.3
claimants of the upcoming domestic gas. Thus, the GUP has Source: Company, Angel Research; Price as on Dec.27,2008; Detailed
diminished chances of CGD incumbents to have a pie of Company Report to be released shortly.

Research Analyst - Deepak Pareek / Amit Vora
For Private Circulation Only 2

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Fundamental Focus

Price - Rs231
Piramal Healthcare - Buy
Target Price - Rs340

Event Update

Minrad International: Small but Strategic fit Inhalation Anaesthetic Market
Piramal Healthcare announced its definitive merger agreement The global Inhalation Anaesthetic market is estimated at US
with Minrad International Inc, a provider of generic inhalation $1,050mn (CY2007) having five gas molecules with the US
anaesthetic, for a total consideration of US $40mn. Piramal market accounting for 50% share. Sevoflurane currently has
Healthcare had entered the Inhalation Anaesthetic segment the lion's share of the total Inhalation Anaesthetic market with
through acquisition of the Rhodia IA business in FY2005. It 72% followed by Desflurane having 20% share. The US
currently produces Halothane and Isoflurane at its facility in Inhalation Anaesthetic market is dominated by few players like
India. With the Minrad acquisition, Piramal will have all five Abbot, Baxter and Minrad. Minrad's market share is currently in
products, viz. Desflurane, Sevoflurane, Enflurane, Isoflurane low single digits and with the acquisition by Piramal Healthcare
and Halothane of the Anaesthetic segment under its portfolio it expects to increase it by 10-12% going forward on the back of
making it the third largest player after Abbott and Baxter in the expansion in vaporizers installation, investment in working
US Inhalation Anaesthetic market. capital and global material sourcing.
Contours of the Deal: As per the agreement, Minrad will Outlook and Valuation
merge with a newly incorporated wholly-owned subsidiary of
Piramal Healthcare has been a key entrant in the CMG space.
Piramal. The transaction is conditioned upon approval by
Over the last few years, the segment has been the key growth
Minrad's stockholders and other customary closing conditions.
driver for the company. We expect the company's Revenues to
The deal is expected to close in the first quarter of 2009. Out of
grow at a CAGR of 14.8% over FY2008-10E to Rs3,751cr and
the US $40mn consideration, which will be raised through
Net Profit to post CAGR of 18.6% over the mentioned period to
internal accruals and debt, Piramal Healthcare will pay Equity
Rs468.9cr. At Rs231, the stock is trading at 10.7x FY2009E and
consideration of US $5.9mn (at $0.12 per share), assume
10.2x FY2010 Earnings. We maintain a Buy on the stock with
existing debt and other charges of US $3.3mn and redeem
a Target Price of Rs340, which implies a Target multiple of
convertible notes of US $30.8mn. The company also plans to
15x FY2010E EPS.
infuse additional US $12mn as working capital investment.
Management expects acquisition to be EPS accretive in
FY2010: Piramal Healthcare intends to turn the acquisition Key Financials (Consolidated)
profitable in its first year of operation by rationalizing costs across
Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009E FY2010E
the value chain and through working capital management.
Management expects Minrad to clock Revenues of US $65mn Net Sales 2,420 2,848 3,334 3,751
with EBITDA Margins of 25% and be marginally EPS accretive % chg 52.9 17.7 17.1 12.5
in the first year of consolidation (FY2010). We believe this
Net Profit 218 334 444 469
acquisition will help the company scale up its Inhaled
Anaesthetic product portfolio and build a global presence in the % chg 80.8 53.0 33.0 5.7
Critical Care segment in the long term. We have not factored in Adj EPS (Rs) 10.4 15.9 21.2 22.4
any upsides from the acquisition on the Net Profit front.
EBITDA Margin (%) 13.7 18.9 19.3 20.2
About Minrad
P/E (x) 21.9 14.3 10.7 10.2
Minrad, founded in 1996, has presence across three segments, RoE (%) 21.1 33.7 37.0 32.3
viz. Inhalation Anaesthetic gases, Conscious Sedation systems,
RoCE (%) 21.2 27.9 30.5 28.1
Image Guidance systems. Minrad has transformed itself into a
generic provider of Inhalation Anaesthetic products, which P/BV (x) 3.9 3.9 3.3 2.7
contributed 98% of Total Revenues in the first nine months of EV/Sales (x) 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.5
CY2008, with all four key products (Desflurane-ANDA filed,
EV/EBITDA (x) 13.4 9.3 7.8 7.1
Sevoflurane, Enflurane and Isoflurane) under its portfolio.
Source: Company, Angel Research; Price as on Dec.24,2008

Research Analyst - Sarabjit Kour Nangra / Sushant Dalmia

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Technical Picks

Bulls losing momentum
Sensex (9329) / Nifty (2857)

In our previous weekly report we had mentioned that initial part of the week could see a minor correction to 9990 - 9820 / 3015 - 2975
levels, where one can initiate long positions with a stop loss of 9633 / 2900 level for a target of 11400 -11650 / 3400 - 3450 levels.
However, magnitude of the correction has clearly taken us by surprise and has broken our short-term swing low, which was at around
9600 / 2900 level thereby negating our previous weekly view and has lost momentum on the upside, which was seen in earlier week.

Source: Advanced Get

Pattern Formation:

The short-term swing low on the daily charts (9633 /2923 level) dated 18/12/08 has been broken, which suggests loss of
momentum in the short term. The next support is at 9200 - 9050 / 2800 - 2770 levels.

The RSI (smoothened), which is a momentum indicator is giving a negative crossover in the daily charts, which suggests some
further downside. However, same RSI (smoothened) in the weekly charts is still positive, which suggests buying may emerge at
lower levels.


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Technical Picks

Future Outlook:

Summarizing from the above, the coming weeks are likely to witness a move in the range of 9200 -10188 / 2800 - 3100 levels, with
10188 / 3100 level clearly acting as a strong resistance. Very clearly the upside target of 11400 / 3400 level is now in doubt, and may
be achieved only if the indices close and trade above the strong resistance of 10188 / 3100 level. On the flip side, if 9200 - 9050 / 2800
- 2770 level is broken then markets can even test 8460 - 8370 / 2530 - 2500 levels.

The short-term momentum indicators are suggesting a downside drift in the prices but not a one way crackdown. Also, the fall
in the last four trading sessions has been on low volumes, which suggests that some buying may come at lower levels. Though
we hold a bearish view in the long term (three to six months), we feel that the short term may witness some buying before the
fall happens.

Negative
crossover

RSI (smoothened)

Source: Advanced Get

Technical Research Team

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Mutual Fund Focus

ELSS - Equity linked Savings Scheme

ELSS is a mutual fund scheme that invests in equity & equity-related securities. ELSS are also eligible investments under
section 80C of Income Tax Act 1961, where the investments up to Rs.1 Lac is eligible for deduction from your total income.
There are many tax-saving instruments, like NSC, PPF, Bank FD that has a fixed Long Term maturity period and gives fixed
returns on the amount invested.

Features of ELSS Schemes ELSS v/s Other Investment Avenues

Objective Long-term Capital Appreciation & Tax Planning Particulars PPF NSC ELSS (Mutual Bank FD

Risk Average Fund)
Duration (years)-Lock in
Investment Portfolio Stocks-Large & Mid Cap
Period 15 6 3 5
Who should invest Investors -Tax Planning & Capital appreciation
Minimum Investment(Rs.) 500 100 500 5000
Investment horizon 3 years Lock in Period
Maximum Investment
Tax Deduction-Sec 80 C (Rs.)- For Tax Advantage 70000 100000 100000 100000
(With Effect from 01/4/2008) Investment up to Rs.1 Lac Exempt from Tax Safety/Ratings No Risk No risk Average Risk No Risk
Tax Implications Dividend-Tax Free Returns % (CAGR) 8.50 7.50 22.50 10.50
Long Term Capital Gain(LTGC) -NIL Interest Income/

Benchmark S&P CNX Nifty Index Dividend Tax Free Taxable Dividends& Taxable
LTCG tax are free
Tax Saving
(Tax Rate-33.33 %*) Rs 23331 33330 33330 33330
*Note: Investors Falling in Highest Tax Bracket

SIP Analysis in ELSS Schemes An Efficient Tax-Saving Tool

The Graph shows that SIP started in a Bear phase & held
for a long period has created wealth for the investor.
SIP period considered: January 2002 to December 2006

ELSS has Triple Advantage Compared to other tax Savings Option
Shortest lock-in period of three years
Highest Returns Potential
Dividend & Long term Capital Gain are Tax Free

Disclaimer: - Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd is not responsible for any error or inaccuracy or any losses suffered on account of information contained in this report. Mutual Fund investments are subjected to market risk.
Please go through offer document before investing.


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Mutual Fund Focus

Bharti AXA Tax Advantage-NFO
Fund features: NFO Period: - 12thDecember, 2008 to 12th February, 2009
Scheme Objective The Scheme seeks to generate long-term capital growth from a diversified portfolio of
Predominantly equity and equity-related securities across all market capitalizations. The Scheme
is in the nature of diversified multi-cap fund. The Scheme is not providing any Assured or guaranteed
returns. There can be no assurance that the investment objectives of the Scheme will be realized.
Type of Scheme An Open - Ended Equity Linked Savings Scheme offering Tax benefits to eligible assesses under
Section 80 C of the Income Tax Act, 1961
Bench Mark Index S&P CNX Nifty Index
NFO Price Rs 10 per unit in cash plus applicable Entry Load.
Plans Eco and Regular
Investment Option(s) Growth Option
Dividend Option offering Dividend Re-investment and Dividend Pay-out facilities
Minimum Application Rs.500/- and in multiples of Rs.500/-
Amount
Entry load Regular Plan - Where the purchase amount is less than Rs. 2 crores - 2.25% of the Applicable
NAV; Where the purchase amount is Rs. 2 crores and above - Nil
Eco Plan - 2.25% of the Applicable NAV
Investments through SIP/ STP - 2.25% of the Applicable NAV
Exit Load NIL
Asset Allocation Instrument Risk Profile Range
Pattern
Equity & Equity related instruments * High 80%- 100%
Debt & Money Market Instruments** Low to Medium 0% - 20%
Fund Manager Mr. Prateek Agrawal
*Investment in derivatives instruments may be made only if permitted under Equity Linked Savings Scheme, 2005 and SEBI Regulations. In such
event, the investments in derivatives shall be up to 50% of the net assets of the Scheme. **The Scheme will not make investments in securitized
debt

Outlook on Equity Market by Bharti AXA AMC

Central bankers
Commodity
turn from fighting Financial Equity Markets
Prices Flow of Equity
inflation to Conditions start to
decline/Inflation Resume
Supporting Ease Outperform
Peaks Out
growth

Performance of Bharti AXA Equity Fund

Bharti AXA Tax Advantage Fund Suitable for Investors
Period 1 Week 2 Weeks 1 Month Since
Medium to long term Investment horizon.
Inception
Attractive investment opportunity for claiming tax Benefits.
Fund 2.50 9.10 11.30 7.13
Long Term Wealth Creation
Benchmark-
S&P CNX Nifty 5.34 13.37 15.27 13.87
*Absolute Return % as on 21 Dec 2008

Disclaimer: - Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd is not responsible for any error or inaccuracy or any losses suffered on account of information contained in this report. Mutual Fund investments are subjected to market risk.
Please go through offer document before investing.


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Derivatives Review

Last week correction due to profit booking
Trade with positive bias using Nifty call options

Nifty spot has closed at 2857 this week against a close of 3078 last week. The Put-Call Ratio is at 1.12 levels against the 1.48 levels
last week and the annualized Cost of Carry is positive 3.99%. The Open Interest in Nifty Futures has decreased by 29.35% due to
expiry.

Put Call Ratio Analysis Futures Annual Volatility Analysis
PCR-OI has declined from 1.48 levels to 1.12 levels in beginning Nifty futures annual volatility has decreased week-over-week
of January series. We have less strike prices to deal with in this from 66.74% to 61.21%. Implied volatility has increased from
series. Both 3000 call and put have shown significant activity 42.50% to 43.25%. Call option IV's are trading at 40.54% and
initially. This level would be pivotal for the series. 2800 put has put option IV's are trading at 45.96%. Interestingly even after
maximum open interest and taking into consideration relatively significant fall of more than 7% IV's have not shot up, indicating
low IV's this appears to be blend of both buying and selling. this is just profit booking. Counters where HV's have increased
FII's interestingly have shown interest in stock options too. are CMC, TVSMOTOR, PETRONET, KSK and GSPL. Stocks where
HV's have decreased are ULTRACEMCO, SYNDIBANK, UTVSOF,
CHENNPETRO and STERLINBIO.

Open Interest Analysis Cost of Carry Analysis

Total open interest of market week-over-week has decreased January series was trading at premium of 28-30 points before
from Rs. 65,720 crores to Rs. 36,550 crores and that of stock expiry. However on Friday the premium has shrunk to 10.30
futures has decreased from Rs. 16,971 crores to Rs. 12,512 points. This was mainly due to long unwinding. We don't expect
crores due to expiry. Liquid counters like SATYAMCOMP, nifty to go into significant premium or discount as both long and
IBREALEST, IDFC, and BAJAJHIND have managed to add open short standing in market at this point in time. Stocks with positive
interest despite expiry. Most of these positions are on the short cost of carry are WWIL, TV-18, HOTELEELA, CIPLA and
side. Counters where significant reduction was witnessed were BRIGADE. Counters with significant negative CoC are
PFC, INDIAINFO, DRREDDY, AXISBANK and HDFCBANK. GMRINFRA, UNITECH, AMTEKAUTO, IBREALEST and
EDELWEISS.

Derivative Strategy

Scrip : RPL CMP : Rs. 84.75/- Lot Size : 1675 Exercise Day (F&O) :
29th January 2009
View: Mildly Bullish Strategy: Bull Call Spread Expected Payoff

Buy/Sell Qty Scrip Strike Series Option Market Closing Price Expected
Price Type Price(Rs.) Profit/Loss

BUY 1675 RPL 90 January CALL 5.00 Rs. 80.00 (Rs. 2.50)

Sell 1675 RPL 100 January CALL 2.50 Rs. 85.00 (Rs. 2.50)
BEP: Rs. 92.50/-
Rs. 92.50 Rs. 0.00
Max. Risk: Rs. 4,187.50/- Max. Profit: Rs.12,562.50/-
Rs. 95.00 Rs. 2.50
If RPL closes on or below Rs. 90/- If RPL closes on or above Rs. 100/-.

NOTE: Profit can be booked before expiry if RPL moves in favourable direction. Rs. 100.00 Rs. 7.50


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Commodities Center

Spices Outlook

India's total spices exports from April to October 2008/09 rose by 7 per cent in volume terms due to strong demand for jeera, turmeric
and coriander according to the Spices Board. Spice exports during April-October stood at 284,560 tonnes as compared to 266,325
tonnes a year ago. Jeera exports surged by 74 per cent to 26,000 tonnes during Apr-Oct due to lower output in major producing
nations like Syria and Turkey ,Coriander exports rose by 13 per cent to 17,100 tonnes and turmeric rose by 6 per cent to 32,250
tonnes whereas Pepper exports declined by 35 per cent to 14,750 tonnes. Global financial turmoil has adversely affected export of
spices from India in the third quarter of 2008-09. Demand for the Indian Pepper from the US and European buyers has slowed down
on account of the economic meltdown. Outlook for some of the spices is as under:

Turmeric:
Turmeric prices witnessed a downward trend in the past few weeks on expectation of better Turmeric production for the year 2009.
Production estimates for 2009 are around 48 lakh bags compared to 42 lakh bags in 2008. Beginning stocks of Turmeric is
estimated to decline and stand lower at 6-7 lakh bags. Fresh arrivals of Turmeric would be available only by mid of January 2009.
Spot prices of Turmeric at major mandis traded in the range of Rs.5,000-3,800/qtl in the previous year. Turmeric Futures April contract
after making a high of Rs.4,210/qtl in August 2008, dipped to a low of Rs.3,050qtl in October. Currently, prices are trading around
Rs.3,350 levels. We expect prices to fall further towards Rs.3,050 levels in the coming weeks.

Pepper:
Decline in the export of Black Pepper from the nation is pressurising prices at the domestic market. Demand from the US and Europe
have declined due to economic slowdown. Other reasons attributed to reduction in exports is sufficient stocks of Pepper with these
nations. Indian international parity of Pepper though being competitive in the overseas market is not providing support to the prices.
Pepper Production in India is expected to be 45-50 thousand tonnes for 2009. If demand from overseas continues to be grim, prices
may dip further.

Jeera:
Export of Jeera soared to 74% in the first seven months of the current fiscal 2008-09 to around 26,000 tonnes due to lower availability
of Jeera in other major growing countries such as Turkey, Syria. This encouraged the farmers of Gujarat and Rajasthan to go for
better sowing of Jeera. Jeera production is affected by the vagaries of weather. Thus, the period from December end to February of
the next year is crucial for the growth of Jeera. If there are any disturbances in weather, that may support the prices to strengthen.
Overall trend remains sideways to down.

Turmeric: Jeera:
Particulars April Contract (per 100 Kg) Particulars February Contract (per 100 Kg)
Resistance-2 3680 Resistance-2 10750
Resistance-1 3525 Resistance-1 10525
Close 3385 Close 10350
Support-1 3250 Support-1 9980
Support-2 3055 Support-2 9710

Pepper:
Particulars February Contract (per 100 Kg) Particulars Spot prices
Resistance-2 10730 Black Pepper 10300
Resistance-1 10410
Close 9900 Jeera 10800
Support-1 9720
Support-2 9475 Turmeric 3950-3800

Research Analyst (Commodities) - Nalini Rao

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Commodities Center

BULLION

MCX FEBRUARY GOLD MCX MARCH SILVER
Last week, Gold prices opened the week at 12760 but found Last week, Silver prices opened the week at 17633 initially moved
very good support at 12760 levels. Later prices recover sharply higher and found good resistance at 17883 levels. Later prices
breaking all the resistance and made a high of 13466 and fell sharply lower breaking all the supports, and made a low
finally ended the week with a huge profit of Rs.620 to close at 16935 and finally ended the week with a loss of Rs.238 to close
13380. at 17395.

TREND : SIDEWAYS UP TREND : SIDEWAYS
TRADING LEVELS: TRADING LEVELS:
This week market is expected to find very good support at This week market is expected to find good support at
13240-13250 levels. Strong support is seen at 13080-13090 17100-17120 levels. Strong support is seen at 16950-16980
levels. levels.
Trading below 13080 would lead to lower prices initially
Trading below 16950 would lead to lower prices initially
towards 12880 and then finally towards the major support at
towards 16820 then 16630 and then finally towards 16500
12665.
levels.
Resistance is observed in the range of 13640-13660. Strong
Resistance is observed in the range of 17650-17680. Strong
resistance is seen at 13770.
resistance is seen at 17890-18000 levels.
Trading above 13770 would lead to higher prices initially
towards 13910 and then finally towards 14000. Trading above 18000 would lead to higher prices initially
towards 18260 and then finally towards 18600.
Recommendation: Buy in the range of 13090-13120 with a
strict stop-loss below 12850 for a target of 13480 and 13550. Recommendation: Neutral

MCX FEBRUARY COPPER MCX JANUARY CRUDE
Last week, Copper prices opened at 144.70. Initially it moved Last week, Crude opened at 2060 levels initially and moved
higher but found strong resistance at 149.50 levels. Later, prices higher but found strong resistance at 2108 levels. Later, prices
fell sharply breaking all supports and made a low 138.55 levels fell sharply breaking all supports through the week and made a
and finally ended the week with a loss Rs.0.70 to close at 144. low of 1751 and finally ended the week with a huge loss of
Rs.216 to close at 1844.
TREND: SIDEWAYS DOWN
TREND : SIDEWAYS DOWN
TRADING LEVELS:
TRADING LEVELS:
This week market is expected to find good support in the
This week market is expected to find good support in the
range of 138-135 levels. Strong support is seen at 133-130
range of 1695 levels. Strong support is seen at 1545-1550
levels.
levels.
Trading below 130 would lead to lower prices initially towards
Trading below 1545 would lead to lower prices finally towards
125 and then finally towards 120 levels.
1500.
Resistance is observed in the range of 148-150 levels and Resistance is observed in the range of 1930-1950 levels and
strong resistance is seen at 156. strong resistance is seen at 2060-2070
Trading above 156 would lead to higher prices initially towards Trading above 2070 would lead to higher prices initially
161.80 and then finally towards 171 levels. towards 2175 and then finally towards 2310.
Recommendation: Neutral Recommendation: Neutral

Technical Analyst (Commodities) - Abhishek Chauhan

Angel Broking
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Weekly Review 27.12.08

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