1. ainia
DEVELOPMENT OF FORWARD-LOOKING ACTIVITIES THROUGH THE
IDENTIFICATION OF POTENTIAL FOOOD SAFETY RISKS
Vicente Martínez1, Dr.Rafael Popper2, José María Ferrer3
1,3 AINIA Technological Centre, 2 Manchester Institute of Innovation Research (MIoIR),
e-mails: 1 vmartinez@ainia.es
Introduction
“an emerging risk to human, animal and/or plant health is understood as a risk resulting from a newly identified hazard to which a significant
exposure may occur or from an unexpected new or increased significant exposure and/or susceptibility to a known hazard”. EFSA 2007.
FOOD SAFETY &
DRIVERS OF CHANGE FOOD SYSTEMS FOOD SECURITY
EMERGING RISK
Climate Change Food Production FOOD CRISIS
• Migration REACTIVE SYSTEMS
• Economical Crisis Food Processing • RASFF
• News Technologies • FOOD INSPECTION
Food Distribution
Food Retailing and
Consumption
The object of this pilot project was to identify potential risks to food safety, in order to build a long term
vision for making decisions. Proactive Systems.
Methods
The project benefited from a three months research visit to the University of Manchester (1/06/11 to 1/10/11) aimed
to study potential chemical risks to food safety related to the application of pesticides in the food process.
Scheduled tasks for achieving the objectives were:
Understanding the contextual landscape. Characterization the focus and scope of the project, determining and
selecting the main drivers of change.
Identification of potential risk issues. Horizon Scanning and identification of weak signal (unclear observables
issues warning us about the probability of future events) and wild carts (issues unlikely to occur, but with great
potential to cause a high impact), mapping the issues and introduction them in the iKnow project database.
Evaluation and Dissemination. Conduct a workshop to evaluate and validate these issues.
Results
Mapping weak signals and wild cards
Preliminary actions
Nomination
• The identification of drivers and risk issues was • source
conducted through the pursuit of scientific articles • theme Example of weak signals
on the site www.sciencedirect.com in the last 10 • sub-theme
years with the keywords:, pesticides, risk, hazard, • references • Risky unintended consequences of the use of smart nano-
chemical , food safety. • short name / headline pesticides.
• abstract
• In turn, the related projects under the EU 7th • likelihood • Increased use of pesticides due to climate change.
Framework Programme, Internet articles and Description
news related to pesticides and food safety risks, • Research on gene transfer from transgenic plants to
• typology
were also reviewed. • importance mammals.
Analysis • Today’s safe pesticides may be dangerous tomorrow.
Identification potential risk issues • early indicators
• main drivers
Of the identified food safety issues, we selected • risks & opportunities
those related to the application of pesticides had a • stakeholders’ actions
Interconnection Wild Cards
higher correlation against drivers evaluated.
• Grand Challenges
Through selected as the most significant aspects • thematic relevance • Nano-pesticides causing cancer
were defined 5 weak signals and 5 wild cards, and • ERA relevance
entered into the database iKnow project. • research-friendly strategies
• RTD & STI policy relevance
Conclusions
Potential emerging risks can be identified systematically by:
The identification of emerging risks requires a structured
and forward-looking intelligence approach, whereby • Identifying and analysing drivers of change, as underlying causes of
networking plays a key role in the analysis and emerging risks.
communication of emerging risks and drivers of change. • Developing scenarios (including wild cards) associated to the drivers of
change.
• Identifying, characterising and interpreting weak signals linked to
potential scenarios.
Bibliography
iKnow FP 7 project www.iknowfutures.eu, EFSA Scientific Colloquium Summary Report 15. 12-13 October 2010, Parma, Italy, EFSA, 2012. Towards a methodological framework for emerging risk
identification. Technical Report. Supporting Publications 2012: EN-243. Emerging Risks & Opportunities in the Food Sector. Summary Report of the 2011 ainia-MIOIR Horizon Scanning Events V. Martínez
et al 2012 http://comunidad.ainia.es.