1. th
London, 30th November 2009
Carbon dioxide: Hero or
villain
Ian Plimer
Professor of Geology, University of Adelaide
Emeritus Professor of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne

2. Constant cyclical climate change
Known Cycles
variable tectonic
143 million year galactic
100,000 years orbital
41,000 years orbital
23,000 years orbital
1,500 years solar
210 years solar
87 years solar
22 years solar
18.7 years lunar
11 years solar

3. The next climate change:
The future is written in the past
Pleistocene ice age 110,000 to 14,700 years ago
Bölling 14,700 to 13,900 years ago
Older Dryas 13,900 to 13,600 years ago
Allerød 13,600 to 12,900 years ago
Younger Dryas 12,900 to 11,600 years ago
Holocene warming 11,600 to 8,500 years ago
Egyptian cooling 8,500 to 8,000 years ago
Holocene Warming 8,000 to 5,600 years ago
Akkadian cooling 5,600 to 3,500 years ago
Minoan Warming 3,500 to 3,200 years ago
Bronze Age Cooling 3,200 to 2,500 years ago
Roman Warming 500 BC to 535 AD
Dark Ages 535 AD to 900 AD
Medieval Warming 900 AD to 1300 AD
Little Ice Age 1300 AD to 1850 AD
Modern Warming 1850 AD to ….

4. Climate change over time

5. Is the speed and degree of modern
climate change unprecedented?
6
4
Temperature (°C)
2
0 Today
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
400 300 200 100 0
Time – Thousands of Years Before Present

7. Cooling with increasing CO2

8. Temperature
Location, location, location…..

9. Urban heat island effect
23.5
Temperature (°F) Tucson U of Arizona (32.2N, 111.0W)
Annual Mean
22.0
20.0
18.5
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

10. What is really measured?
0.8
Temperature Trend per Decade
0.7
0.6
1940 - 1996 (°C)
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
-0.1
10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
Population of Country

11. Reliability of surface measurements
The 28 years of high quality satellite data
Temperature Variation (°C)
1.0
Global
0.5
0
-0.5
1.0 Northern Hemisphere
0.5
0
-0.5
1.0
Southern Hemisphere
0.5
0
-0.5
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
The Southern Hemisphere is the same temperature it was 28 years ago,
The Northern Hemisphere has warmed slightly

12. Models for atmospheric temperature
10
10 10
10
NASA/NSIPP GFDL
50
50 50
50
100
100 100
100
200
200 200
200
300
300 300
300
500
500 500
500
700
700 700
700
950
950 950
950
60°S
60°S 30°S
30°S EQ
EQ 30°N
30°N 60°N
60°N 60°S
60°S 30°S
30°S EQ
EQ 30°N
30°N 60°N
60°N
-7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
10
10 10
10
SNU NASA/GEOS5
50
50 50
50
100
100 100
100
200
200 200
200
300
300 300
300
500
500 500
500
700
700 700
700
950
950 950
950
60°S
60°S 30°S
30°S EQ
EQ 30°N
30°N 60°N
60°N 60°S
60°S 30°S
30°S EQ
EQ 30°N
30°N 60°N
60°N
Zonally-averaged distributions of predicted temperature change in °K at CO2 doubling (2xCO2 -control),
2 2
as a function of latitude and pressure level, for four general-circulation models (Lee et al., 2007)

13. Radiosonde measurements
No “greenhouse warming” signature is observed in reality
hPa Km
25
24
50 20
100 16
200 12
300
8
500
700 4
1000
75°N 45°N 30°N 15°N EQ 15°S 30°S 45°S 75°S
Source: HadAT2 radiosonde observations, from CCSP (2006), p116, fig. 5.7E

15. Sea level change
1992-95 1992-98
Global average rise Global average rise
= 4.6 mm/yr = 1-4-3.1 mm/yr
-60 -30 0 30 60 mm/yr
TOPEX/Poseidon measurements, September 1992 – August 1995
(patterns dominated by international ocean variability, e.g. ENSO)

17. We’ll all be rooned
Measurement of historic sea levels
2000 Port Pirie -0.3mm/yr
Sea Level (mm)
1500 2.4mm/yr
Port Adelaide Outer Harbour
Fort Denison 1.0mm/yr
1000
1.4mm/yr
500 Fremantle
Southern Oscillation Index
0
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Global average of tide gauges for 20th Century sea level rise is 1-2mm/yr (IPCC, 2001)

18. Smoothing of ice core CO2 data
2
- why pre-industrial choice of 280ppm?
1812-2004 Northern Hemisphere, Chemical Measurement
from 1958 Mauna Loa CO2 5 year average
2 Ice core Antarctica
450
400
CO2 (ppmv)
350
300
270
1810 1850 1900 1950 1970
Year

20. Water: Main greenhouse gas
& driver of CO2
100%
0.001% Man made
Natural
80%
60%
40%
20%
0.117% 0.066% 0.047% 0.047%
0%
Water CO 2 Methane N 2O Misc
Vapour Gases

21. Doubling CO2 at 385ppm
has no effect
The warming effect of atmospheric carbon dioxide
1.6
1.4
Temperature (°C)
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 340 360 380 400 420
Atmospheric carbon dioxide in ppm

22. Submarine volcanicity
Terrestrial volcanoes change weather
45°30’N
(e.g. Tambora 1815)
Submarine supervolcanoes add heat
Megaplume 2
and CO 2 to oceans and change climate
(64,000km ridges
10,000 km3/a of cooling water
Recent
>85% Earth’s volcanoes)
Recent
45°00’N
Eruptions
Eruptions
Megaplume 1
44°30’N
130°30’W 130°00’W Seafloor Spreading

23. Greenland ice sheet 5.4cm/yr
5.4cm/yr
increase*
increase*
Greenland ice sheet change in cm/yr d180 Site15 GISP2, Boltzman Strobel 1994
10per. Mov. Avg (d180 Site15 GISP2, Boltzman Strobel 1994)
(d180 Site15 GISP2, Boltzman Strobel 1994)
80°N -30°
-32°
-34°
-36°
75°N -38°
20°W -40°
-42°
80°W 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1960 1975 1980 1985
Year
70°N
30°W
-29.5
-30
65°N
-30.5
-31
-31.5
-32
60°N
40°W -32.5
70°W 60°W 50°W 1000 800 600 400 200 100
Time – Years Before Present
30 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -30
*Derived 1992-2003
*Derived from 11 years of ERS-1/ERS-2 satellite altimeter data, 1992-2003

24. Is global warming melting the ice caps
and reducing sea ice? NO!
1.0
Antarctic Sea Ice Trends
0.5
…. going up!
0
-0.5 0°
30°W 30°E
-1.0
60°W
Antarctic 60°E
Source: National Snow and Ice data Centre
Source: National Snow and Ice data Centre Peninsula
-1.5
1978 1990 2000 2006
Year
Antarctic Land Ice Trends 90°W
…. going up over most Amundsen
Sea
of the continent!
120°W 120°E
Kamb
Ice Stream
150°W
Source: Vaughn, D.G., 2005. Science, 3008, 1877-1878. 2000 Km 180° 150°E

25. Temperature proxy
H2O(vap) buffer to maximum and minimum temperature
4
Temperature (°C)
2
0
-2
-4
-6 280
CO2 (ppmv)
CO2 (ppmv)
-8 260
240
220
1.5 200
Dust (ppm)
1.0
0.5
0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Thousands of Years Ago

26. Temperature, sunspots and CO2
0.3
Temperature Anomaly (°C)
CO2 Concentration (ppm v)
Temperature Anomaly (°C)
350 0.2
Sunspot Cycle Length (y)
10.0
340 0.1
10.5 330 0
Sunspot cycle
length Temperature
anomaly 320 -0.1
11.0
310 -0.2
CO2 concentration 300 -0.3
11.5
290 -0.4
12.0
-0.5
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year

27. Temperature proxy
Cosmogenic isotopes (C 14; also Be 10, Al 26, Cl 36, Ca 41, Ti 44, I 129)
100
80
60
40
20
0
10,000BC 8,000BC 6,000BC 4,000BC 2,000BC 1AD 2000AD
-30 Modern
Temperature (°C)
Medieval
Maximum Maximum
-20
Dalton
Minimum
-10 Maunder Spörer
Minimum Minimum Oort
0 Minimum
Wolf
10 Minimum
20
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100
Calendar Years Before Present

28. It’s easy to stop climate change -
All we have to do is:
STOP bacteria doing what bacteria do
STOP ocean currents changing
STOP plate tectonics and continent movement
STOP orbital changes to Earth
STOP variations in energy released from Sun
STOP orbit of Solar System in Galaxy
STOP supernoval eruptions
When we’ve stopped these natural processes,
When we’ve stopped these natural processes,
if human-induced then:
if human-induced then:
PERSUADE China and India to stay poor
PERSUADE China and India to stay poor

29. A few little problems
Warmings in industrial age (1860-1880, 1910-1940, 1975-1998; CO2 rise only correlates
with 1975-1998 warming)
Industrial age coolings when CO2 increasing (1880-1910, 1940-1975, 1998-present
Peak of Little Ice Age coolings (Dalton, Maunder, Spörer, Wolf) when few sunspots; 20th
Century solar maximum and no sunspots
Pre-industrial Minoan, Roman and Medieval Warmings (with no sea level changes); SL
rise of 130m 12,000-6,000 years ago, SL fall of 2m over last 6,000 years
Greater past variability and changes
Five of six great ice ages when atmospheric CO2 up to 1000 times higher than now
Arctic warming (fanfare); Antarctic, oceanic (PDO) and atmospheric cooling (silence)
SOLUTION
Fraud