2. Using language to detect potential change in
ecosystem services in the light of ecological
surprises
!
Juan Carlos Rocha & Robin Wikström
3. Ecosystem services are the beneïŹts humans receive from nature (MEA 2005)
Foley et al. 2005. Science
4. 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
0500100015002000
Year
ScientificPapers
ISI Web of Knowledge
Ecosystem services is a relatively recent ïŹeld of studies. Yet,
assessing which ecosystem services are likely to be affected
by ecological surprises is one of the greatest challenges of
current ecological research.
5. âą Knowledge bias: we know a lot
about easy to study stuïŹ
âą There is the lack of high quality
datasets and time series to
assess ecosystem services
change
âą It is diïŹcult to experiment with
ecosystems, especially when it
comes to large scale
phenomena, possible
irreversible, with great potential
to aïŹect human well-being
The problem
6. Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA)
The main goal is to create
algorithms for discovering
main themes that pervades
large and unstructured
collection of documents
The elemental idea is that
documents consist of
random mixtures of latent
topics, topics that can be
represented as a distribution
of words
The goal is to
automatically discover
these âhiddenâ topics,
without having any prior
knowledge about the
text and its content
7. Model selection & number of topics
âą We test Variational
Estimation Methods
(VEM), correlated topic
models (CTM) & Gibbs
sampling.
âą We tested 5 models with
diïŹerent topic numbers
(20:100)
âą VEM algorithm with 80
topics ïŹt the best the
MEA training dataset
VEM1
VEM2
VEM3
VEM4
VEM5
0.010 0.012 0.014 0.016
alpha
VEM1
VEM2
VEM3
VEM4
VEM5
-1280000 -1240000 -1200000
logLik
VEM1
VEM2
VEM3
VEM4
VEM5
500 600 700 800
Perplexity
VEM1
VEM2
VEM3
VEM4
VEM5
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
Entropy
8. Topics = 80
Millenium Ecosystem AssessmentTopics detection
38
58
5
14
73
41
22
70
45
80
72
55
18
19
15
44
52
56
57
78
9
1
47
28
12
39
29
30
40
75
6
27
4
35
68
71
42
48
11
51
59
2
66
63
25
34
67
3
65
60
46
32
10
21
54
7
37
17
23
69
20
49
26
8
13
16
64
77
76
33
50
53
24
61
62
31
74
79
43
36
Chapter 20 Inland Water Systemsâ2.pdf.txt
Chapter 8 Food.pdf.txt
Chapter 9 Timber Fuel and Fiber.pdf.txt
Chapter 15 Waste Processing and Detoxi...cation.pdf.txt
Chapter 17 Cultural and Amenity Services.pdf.txt
Chapter 23 Island Systems.pdf.txt
Chapter 5 Ecosystem Conditions and Human Wellâbeing.pdf.txt
Chapter 6 Vulnerable Peoples and Places.pdf.txt
Fisherâ2013âStrengthening_conceptual_foundations_Analysing_frameworks_for_e
Stallmanâ2011âEcosystem_services_in_agriculture_determining_suitability_for_pr
Powerâ2010âEcosystem_services_and_agriculture_tradeoffs_and_synergies.pdf.t
Saadâ2013âLand_use_impacts_on_freshwater_regulation_erosion_regulation_an
Mitchellâ2013âLinking_Landscape_Connectivity_and_Ecosystem_Service_Provisi
Mannâ2012âEcosystem_Service_Value_and_Agricultural_Conversion_in_the_Am
Maskellâ2013âExploring_the_ecological_constraints_to_multiple_ecosystem_serv
Cardinaleâ2013âBiodiversity_simultaneously_enhances_the_production_and_stab
Jaxâ2013âEcosystem_services_and_ethics.pdf.txt
Chapter 28 Synthesis Condition and Trends in Systems and Services Tradeâoffs fo
Chenâ2013âChanges_in_land_useland_cover_and_ecosystem_services_in_Cent
Chapter 1 MA Conceptual Framework.pdf.txt
Nelsonâ2005âChapter 3 Drivers of ecosystem change summary chapter.pdf.txt
Chapter 2 Analytical Approaches for Assessing Ecosystem Condition and Human W
Chapter 14 Human Health Ecosystem Regulation of Infectious Diseases.pdf.txt
Chapter 24 Mountain Systems.pdf.txt
ZhengââBenefits_costs_and_livelihood_implications_of_a_regional_payment_for_
Sircelyâ2012âBiodiversity_and_Ecosystem_MultiâFunctionality_Observed_Relatio
Langerwischâ2012âPotential_effects_of_climate_change_on_inundation_patterns_
Chapter 13 Climate and Air Quality.pdf.txt
QiuââSpatial_interactions_among_ecosystem_services_in_an_urbanizing_agricult
Chapter 22 Dryland Systems.pdf.txt
Chapter 7 Fresh Water.pdf.txt
Chapter 4 Biodiversity.pdf.txt
Chapter 18 Marine Fisheries Systems.pdf.txt
Chapter 12 Nutrient Cycling.pdf.txt
VidalâAbarca_Gutie..rrezâ2013âWhich_are_what_is_their_status_and_what_can_
Chapter 25 Polar Systems.pdf.txt
Turnerâ2012âConsequences_of_spatial_heterogeneity_for_ecosystem_services_i
Baiâ2012âGrazing_alters_ecosystem_functioning_and_CNP_stoichiometry_of_gra
Chapter 10 New Products and Industries from Biodiversity.pdf.txt
Acremanâ2013âHow_Wetlands_Affect_Floods.pdf.txt
Chapter 16 Regulation of Natural Hazards Floods and Fires.pdf.txt
Chapter 11 Biodiversity Regulation of Ecosystem Services.pdf.txt
Schmittâ2013âCapturing_Ecosystem_Services_Stakeholders'_Preferences_and_T
Chapter 21 Forest and Woodland Systems.pdf.txt
Chapter 27 Urban Systems.pdf.txt
Chapter 26 Cultivated Systems.pdf.txt
Chapter 19 Coastal Systems.pdf.txt
0.2 0.6
Value
02000
Color Key
and Histogram
Count
10. Topics = 80
Corpus = 812 papersTopics detection
Soilformation
Primaryproduction
Nutrientcycling
Watercycling
Biodiversity
Freshwater
Foodcrops
Livestock
Fisheries
Timber
Woodfuel
Climateregulation
Waterregulation
Regulationofsoilerosion
Pestanddiseaseregulation
Pollination
Naturalhazardregulation
Cultural
West Antarctic IceSheet Collapse
Tundra to Forest
Termohaline circulation
Steppe to tundra
Soil structure
Soil salinization
Sea grass collapse
Salt marshes
River channel change
Peatlands
Monsoon weakening
Marine foodwebs
Marine eutrophication
Mangroves collapse
Kelps transitions
Hypoxia
Greenland
Forest to savannas
Floating plants
Fisheries collapse
Eutrophication
Encroachment
Dry land degradation
Coral transitions
Bivalves collapse
Arctic Sea Ice
0.1 0.4
Value
0250
Color Key
and Histogram
Count
Soilformation
Primaryproduction
Nutrientcycling
Watercycling
Biodiversity
Freshwater
Foodcrops
Livestock
Fisheries
Timber
Woodfuel
Climateregulation
Waterregulation
Regulationofsoilerosion
Pestanddiseaseregulation
Pollination
Naturalhazardregulation
Cultural
West Antarctic IceSheet Collapse
Tundra to Forest
Termohaline circulation
Steppe to tundra
Soil structure
Soil salinization
Sea grass collapse
Salt marshes
River channel change
Peatlands
Monsoon weakening
Marine foodwebs
Marine eutrophication
Mangroves collapse
Kelps transitions
Hypoxia
Greenland
Forest to savannas
Floating plants
Fisheries collapse
Eutrophication
Encroachment
Dry land degradation
Coral transitions
Bivalves collapse
Arctic Sea Ice
0 0.4 1
Value
180
Color Key
and Histogram
Count
Human Readers Computer reading
11. Soilformation
Primaryproduction
Nutrientcycling
Watercycling
Biodiversity
Freshwater
Foodcrops
Livestock
Fisheries
Timber
Woodfuel
Climateregulation
Waterregulation
Regulationofsoilerosion
Pestanddiseaseregulation
Pollination
Naturalhazardregulation
Cultural
West Antarctic IceSheet Collapse
Tundra to Forest
Termohaline circulation
Steppe to tundra
Soil structure
Soil salinization
Sea grass collapse
Salt marshes
River channel change
Peatlands
Monsoon weakening
Marine foodwebs
Marine eutrophication
Mangroves collapse
Kelps transitions
Hypoxia
Greenland
Forest to savannas
Floating plants
Fisheries collapse
Eutrophication
Encroachment
Dry land degradation
Coral transitions
Bivalves collapse
Arctic Sea Ice
Topics = 80
Corpus = 812 papersTopics detection
False positives
Soilformation
Primaryproduction
Nutrientcycling
Watercycling
Biodiversity
Freshwater
Foodcrops
Livestock
Fisheries
Timber
Woodfuel
Climateregulation
Waterregulation
Regulationofsoilerosion
Pestanddiseaseregulation
Pollination
Naturalhazardregulation
Cultural
West Antarctic IceSheet Collapse
Tundra to Forest
Termohaline circulation
Steppe to tundra
Soil structure
Soil salinization
Sea grass collapse
Salt marshes
River channel change
Peatlands
Monsoon weakening
Marine foodwebs
Marine eutrophication
Mangroves collapse
Kelps transitions
Hypoxia
Greenland
Forest to savannas
Floating plants
Fisheries collapse
Eutrophication
Encroachment
Dry land degradation
Coral transitions
Bivalves collapse
Arctic Sea Ice
False negatives
12. Zooming problem
Ecosystem services categories make sense for MEA authors
but not necessarily for other scientist, readers or⊠computers.
13. Concluding remarks
âą Itâs hard to make students do
homework, but even harder to
make your computer do it
automatically for youâŠErrors
âą Broad categories such as
supporting & cultural services
are hard to identify, we did much
better with regulating services.
âą Our results open the possibility
of using text mining for
monitoring trends on ecosystem
services at larger scales and
real time.
Soilformation
Primaryproduction
Nutrientcycling
Watercycling
Biodiversity
Freshwater
Foodcrops
Livestock
Fisheries
Timber
Woodfuel
Climateregulation
Waterregulation
Regulationofsoilerosion
Pestanddiseaseregulation
Pollination
Naturalhazardregulation
Cultural
West Antarctica Ice Sheet collapse (
Tundra to forest (17)
Thermohaline circulation (26)
Steppe to tundra (10)
Soil structure (2)
Soil salinization (7)
Sea grass collapse (6)
Salt marshes (17)
River channel change (22)
Peatlands (21)
Monsoon weakening (9)
Marine foodwebs (50)
Marine Eutrophication (8)
Mangroves collapse (6)
Kelps transitions (11)
Hypoxia (7)
Greenland (20)
Forest to savannas (39)
Floating plants (4)
Fisheries collapse (75)
Eutrophication (20)
Encroachment (12)
Dry land degradation (26)
Coral transitions (33)
Bivalves collapse (13)
Arctic Sea Ice (19)
0 0.4 1
Value
215
Color Key
and Histogram
Count