We present an exploratory analysis of the causal interactions among global change drivers of regime shifts, based on information collated in the Regime Shifts Database*. We reviewed the documented evidence of over 20 policy-relevant regime shifts in ecosystems. Information on the dynamics of each regime shift was synthesized using causal-loop diagrams, a generic structure map of the system. We then identified the main drivers of change, the key impacts on ecosystem services, as well as possible cross-scale interactions among regime shifts drivers using network analysis.
Misperception of feedbacks: another source of vulnerability in social-ecologi...
The domino effect: A network analysis of regime shifts drivers and causal pathways
1. The domino effect:
A network analysis of regime shifts
drivers and causal pathways
Juan Carlos Rocha, R. Oonsie Biggs & Garry Peterson
Stockholm Resilience Center
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
2. Interaction of regime
shifts drivers?
Anthropocene and the likelihood of
regime shifts
1. What is more important? What we
should be worry about?
2. What are the possible connections
among RS?
3. What are the impacts of climate
change in RS?
4. Where are they more likely to
happen?
Rockström et al., 2009
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
3. Regime shifts that matter to people
Regime shift: Large, abrupt, persistent change in the structure and function of a system.
Policy relevant = Substantial change in Ecosystem Services
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
4. Global change drivers
“...any natural or human-induced factor that directly or
indirectly causes a change in an ecosystem. A direct driver
unequivocally influences ecosystem processes. An indirect
driver operates more diffusely, by altering one or more
direct drivers” (MEA 2005)
Our drivers are the result of literature review for each
regime shift.
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
5. Drivers
The objective of this paper is to perform an
exploratory analysis of the causal interactions Q2
Q1
among global change drivers of regime shifts.
Regime shifts
D1
Q3
1. What are the major global Cascading effects
change drivers of regime RS1 RS2 RS3
shifts?
RS1
2. What are the impacts of
regime shifts on global
change drivers? D1 D2 D3
3. What are the possible
cascading effects of regime RS1 D1 ... RS2
shifts and its drivers?
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
8. Regime shift database
Description of the alternative
regimes and reinforcing
feedbacks
The drivers that precipitate the
regime shift
Impacts on ecosystem services
and human well-being
Management options
www.regimeshifts.org
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
9. Causal-loop diagrams is a
N Policy relevant Regime Shifts Mechanism Reversibility
technique to map out the
1 Bivalves collapse Established H feedback structure of a system
2 Coral transitions Established H (Sterman 2000)
3 Coral bleaching Established H
4 Desertification Contested H, I
5 Encroachment Established H
6 Eutrophication Established H, I, R
7 Fisheries collapse Contested U
8 Marine foodwebs collapse Contested U
9 Forest - Savanna Established I
10 Hypoxia Established H, R
11 Kelp transitions Established H, R
12 Soil salinization Established H, I
13 Steppe - Tundra Established I
14 Tundra - Forest Established I
15 Monsoon circulation Established I
16 Thermohaline circulation collapse Established I
17 Greenland ice sheet collapse Established I
18 Arctic salt marshes Established I
19 Arctic ice collapse Established I
Reversibility: H = Hysteretic; I = Irreversible; R= Reversible; U = Unknown
Current data: 19 Regime Shifts descriptions + CLD.
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
10. Methods: Network Analysis
Centrality Definition
Degree The number edges a vertex is connected to
(Newman 2010): In-degree and Out-degree
Betweenness The extent to which a vertex lies on paths
between other vertices (Newman 2010)
Eigenvector A vertex is important if it is directly or Degree centrality
indirectly connected to other vertices that are
in turn important (Allesina and Pascual 2009),
like Google PageRank
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
11. Methods: Network Analysis
Centrality Definition
Degree The number edges a vertex is connected to
(Newman 2010): In-degree and Out-degree
Betweenness The extent to which a vertex lies on paths
between other vertices (Newman 2010)
Eigenvector A vertex is important if it is directly or Betweenness centrality
indirectly connected to other vertices that are
in turn important (Allesina and Pascual 2009),
like Google PageRank
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
12. Methods: Network Analysis
Centrality Definition
Degree The number edges a vertex is connected to
(Newman 2010): In-degree and Out-degree
Betweenness The extent to which a vertex lies on paths
between other vertices (Newman 2010)
Eigenvector A vertex is important if it is directly or Eigenvector centrality
indirectly connected to other vertices that are
in turn important (Allesina and Pascual 2009),
like Google PageRank
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
13. D1
1. What are the major global change
drivers of regime shifts? RS1 RS2 RS3
Top drivers
Drivers per Regime Shift
Global warming Coral Transitions
Lake Euthrophication
Demand
Fisheries Collapse
Human population Hypoxia
Bivalves Collapse
Agriculture
Coral Bleaching
Deforestation Kelps Transitions
Soil Salinization
Erosion Bush Encroachment
Forest − Savanna
Urban growth
Desertification
Fishing Monsoon
Marine Foodwebs
Turbidity Greenland Ice−sheet Collapse
Thermohaline Circulation
Nutrients input
Steppe − Tundra
Floods Tundra − Forest
Arctic Salt−Marshes
Atmospheric CO2
Arctic Ice−Sheet Collapse
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 0 5 10 15 20
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
14. D1
1. What are the major global change
drivers of regime shifts? RS1 RS2 RS3
80
60
Numbervertex vertex
Number vertexvertex
50
60
40
of
Number of of
Number of
40
30
20
20
10
0
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 14 15 17 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 19 22
Outgoing links
Outdegree
Incoming links
Indegree
Few nodes have a lot of links!
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
15. D1
1. What are the major global change
drivers of regime shifts? RS1 RS2 RS3
Local centrality Global centrality
0.06
Albedo
0.05
Global warming
10
Global warming
Agriculture Space
SST
Precipitation Nutrients input
0.04
Dissolved oxygen Mid−predators Fishing
Floods Fire frequency SST
Betweenness
Outdegree
Woody plants dominance Erosion
Deforestation
Bivalves abundance
Algae
0.03
Cropland−Grassland area Grass dominance Nutrients input
Top Irrigation Zooplankton Albedo
5
predators
Forest Herbivores
Space
Macrophytes Soil moisture
ENSO−like events frequency Phytoplankton
Droughts
Planktivore fish Turbidity
Atmospheric CO2
Demand
Greenhouse gases growth
Urban
Rainfall variability Herbivores
Shrubs Precipitation
Greenlandsea ice volume
Arctic ice sheet volume
Phytoplankton
0.02
Soil temperature
Human population Land−OceanVegetation
Steppe Open water
Tundra
Open water
MeltwaterAtmosphericNativealgae
Disease outbreak temperature
Rainfall deficitTurf−forming algae Coral abundance
Wind fetchSavanna Nekton temperature gradient
Fertilizers drainageand meso−predators
Lobsters Urchin vegetation
Water Canopy−forming barren
use temperature Biodiversity Grass dominance
Fire frequency
Erosion
AbsorptionSewageinfrastructure Soil salinity
Local Palatability
water solar
movements Macroalgae
Consumption Unpalatability radiation availabilityabundance
Open surface stressproductivity
ofWater
Water vapor
preferences
Warm Grazing Wind SoilUpwellings
Sediments
water inflow density
Water Water
storm Plankton Shrubs Flushing
EvaporationArctic sea Evapotranspiration
UrbanStratificationdemand ice volume algae sheet volume
Landscape water runoff filamentous ice
Meltwater runoff and Greenland
fragmentation/conversion
Water
Noxious gases
Atmospheric temperature Agriculture
Woody plants dominance
Absorption of solar radiation Fishing
Latent maturity
Tree
incentivesDust Habitat structural complexity
Ocean fuelLandConvection gradient Ground water table
Illegal anthropogenic wave storage
IceNoxious Carbon uptake
PerverseIce−oceanheatRoughness
industryheat inCO2
Sea tidesMortalitysoils lubrication
Exposed rate
Aquifers exchange
Fossil ofWaterMoistureOrganic matter cycling
LoggingSulfide runoffreleaseNutrient
Permafrost Basal
CO2Brown gases
Shadow_rooting
River
logging thinvelocity
sliding clouds
Hurricanesemissions Fish
LowLand−Oceancompetitors action
Other Biomass
Glacierfrequencydegradation
Impoundments pressurewinter Grazers Phosphorous in water
Solar radiationVapor
Technologyconversion level Productivity
Liftingcommons Leakage
condensation
Huntingflux Aerosol
burningcirculation
Thermal Subsidiesundercutting concentration
Pollutants
tides column release
exposureiceto
InfrastructureMonsooninmixing contrastSurface air temperature
development cooling
Tragedy SoilYoungbeneathcover circulation
Soil annomaliesqualitySalinitythe water column
HeatSoil density
impermeabilitysummer pressure
the Waterinicerates
WaterFecesfrontcyclonic inFreshwater
Ice Temperature
ImmigrationGesseZooxanthellae
Ranching
Ice consumption
Daily Cropland Overturning
Glacierrelativespecies
calving Advection
Openings vegetation
Woodydeposition
TradeSnowingaeration Water surface
Open density
Vegetation
surface drifting
drainagecontrast
CHL /retreat
StressThermalice
Nutrient availability
Ocean acidification
Densitystructure
Microbialextraction
Carbon activity
SeaInvasive level low Land−Ocean temperature gradient
0.01 Soil productivity
Stratification Dissolved oxygen
Coral abundance
Surface air temperatureProductivity Demand Bivalves abundance
0
Atmospheric CO2
Meltwater fetch drainage
Snowing drifting
Wind
Soil temperature Deforestation
Irrigation
Soil moisture
Steppe
Ocean anthropogenic CO2 frequency
ENSO−like events Rainfall variability
Forest
Soil salinity uptake
Turf−forming algae
Floods
sliding velocity Biodiversity
BasalSalinity Savanna outbreak
IceMacroalgae Rainfall deficit
Overturning abundance
lubrication Disease
Advection
Evapotranspiration
Water vapor
Aerosol concentration
IceGlacierLandWater temperature
Freshwater stress algae
Brown Wind
YoungSolarincirculation
cyclonicradiation
Canopy−forming
clouds
undercutting
Openings in ice cover
Heat thin icedegradation Flushing
in winter
Upwellings
Turbidity Algae
Zooplankton Mid−predators
Meltwater runoffDroughts
conversion
Cropland−Grassland area
Permafrost summerstorage
flux Carbon
Evaporation
Stress beneath ice availability
WaterVapor extraction
Ice calving Water
Ice front Carbon gases
rates
infrastructure
Greenhouse retreat Top predators
Macrophytes
Thermalconsumptionbarren matter
drainageUrchin
Soil CHLPalatability vegetation
Grazers
Native
Nutrient/exchange and
River low cycling
pressure Nekton
0.00
aeration
runoff maturity
Land−Ocean condensation level meso−predators
pressure gradient
Woodyavailability
vegetation
MicrobialTreecirculation
activity
SeaCroplandLobsters
Temperature
Monsooninflow
Water demand
Ice−oceanwater Leakage
Nutrientwater table
Shadow_rooting
Habitatimpermeability Water mixing water
Lifting Aquifers Organic in Plankton
CO2RoughnessPhosphorous
Gesse Tundra
structure
WaterLandscape fragmentation/conversion
GroundheatWater complexity contrast
emissions
Warmsurface levelcolumn column
Unpalatability
Moisture
Soil quality
Density contrastcoolingaction density incentives and filamentous algae Planktivore fish
Zooxanthellae
DailyExposed soils Humanofwatergrowth
FecesBiomass Grazing Urban
GlacierLatentstructuralindustrySewagecommons
exposureannomalieswaterTechnology preferences
Lowtides the Tragedy population
Other in
OceanLoggingrate SulfideSediments
deposition
Dustto wave
Convectionspecies
Thermal acidificationstorm Trade
Mortality
Pollutants Fish
FossilRanchingUrban Perversethe use
Infrastructurelogging Consumption
Soil relative releaseLocal Fertilizers runoff
Sea Illegal frequency release
Hunting
Immigration
fuel tides
heatburning
Invasivecompetitors water movements
Impoundments
Hurricanesdevelopment Subsidies
0 5 10 15 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06
Indegree Eigenvector
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
16. D1
Marine Regime Shifts RS1 RS2 RS3
Local centrality Global centrality
0.12
0.10
Nutrients input
10
Phytoplankton
Nutrients input
Fishing
0.08
Dissolved oxygenMid−predators
Noxious gases
Global warming
Betweenness
Algae Bivalves abundance
Outdegree
Agriculture Bivalves abundance
0.06
Floods Zooplankton
5
Top predators Space
GlobalUrban Macrophytes Phytoplankton
Planktivore fish
warminggrowth Dissolved oxygen
Turbidity
SST Erosion SST
ENSO−like Water temperature
events frequency
Canopy−forming algae algae
Turf−forming Biodiversity
Fishing
0.04
Greenhouse gasesand meso−predators
Disease outbreak Urchin barren
Lobsters Nekton Coral abundance
Unpalatability
AtmosphericDemand
Water vapor
CO2 Plankton and Macroalgae abundance
Human population Upwellings
ConsumptionFertilizers use runoff filamentous algae
Precipitation Flushing Coral abundance
Urban Sewage
Deforestation Sediments
preferences
Localstorm water Herbivores
Landscape fragmentation/conversion
water movements
Disease outbreak
Tragedy of thecolumn acidification
Impoundments densityLeakage
Water frequency
OceanIrrigation contrast
Thermal annomalies species
Invasive
Droughts
Perverse incentives mixing
TechnologyWater Zooxanthellae
Low tides commons
Sulfide stress
Wind release
Stratification relative cooling structural complexity
Mortality rate
Habitat
Density Thermal Fishmatter
Daily competitors
SubsidiesPollutants low pressurecolumn
Hurricanescontrast in the water
Noxious gases
Trade Other Organic Phosphorous in water Water vapor
0.02 Biodiversity Zooplankton
Nekton
Space Upwellings
0
Mid−predators
Turbidity Algae
Water temperature
Greenhouse gases Floods
Thermal low pressureErosion Macrophytes
Turf−forming algae
Macroalgae abundance Flushing
Lobsters and meso−predatorsTop predators
Wind stress
Water column density contrast
Urchin barren
Herbivores
Canopy−forming algae
Habitat structural complexity
Phosphorous in growth
Urban
Density contrast inOrganic matter and filamentous algae
Leakage Plankton
0.00
Zooxanthellae mixing water
ENSO−like events water column
Mortality the
Unpalatability frequency
Droughts
OceanHumanPerverseDemand
rate Agriculture Planktivore fish
AtmosphericWater Technology preferences
Landscape coolingwater incentives
fragmentation/conversion
acidification theuse
Other competitors Sediments
DailyInvasiveLocalSewage runoff
Low PollutantsFish Subsidies
population
HurricanesCO2 release
Consumption
relativePrecipitationTrade
Deforestation movements
Thermal annomalies of water
tidesUrban Stratificationcommons
storm
Fertilizers
Irrigation
frequency
Tragedy
Impoundments
species
Sulfide
0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12
0 5 10 15
Eigenvector
Indegree
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
17. D1
Terrestrial Regime Shifts RS1 RS2 RS3
Local centrality Global centrality
0.08
8
Fire frequency Precipitation
0.06
Global warming Precipitation Agriculture
Woody plants dominance
6
Fire frequency
Forest Grass dominance Deforestation
Cropland−Grassland area Deforestation
Betweenness
Outdegree
Agriculture Irrigation Albedo
0.04
Albedo Grass dominance
4
Irrigation
Rainfall variability
Soil productivity Forest
Droughts
DemandLand−Ocean temperature
Rainfall deficit
Savanna Native vegetation gradient
Woody plants dominance
Demand
Productivity
Land−Ocean temperature gradient
Atmospheric temperature
Erosion
Savanna
SST Atmospheric temperature
Floodsdemand
Grazing Water infrastructure Evapotranspiration
Water Erosion
Vegetation Space
Water availability
2
Atmospheric CO2
0.02
Human population Palatability
Soil moisture productivity
Soil Vegetation
Water infrastructure
Water availability
Advection
Carbon storage Global warming
Soil impermeability Solar radiation
Infrastructure developmentstress
WindTree release
maturity
Aquifers
LatentSoil quality
heatevents
Monsoon circulation
ENSO−likeDust frequency Vapor Soil salinity Soil salinity
Biomass
Logging industryShadow_rooting level
ImmigrationWater consumption
Land−Ocean pressure gradient concentration Productivity Aerosol concentration Soil moisture Rainfall deficit
use Moisture Carbon storage
Lifting Ranching
condensation Advection
FertilizersAbsorption of solar radiation
Aerosol Brown radiation
Solar clouds
Illegal logging
Sea tides Brown clouds Roughness
Temperature
Land conversion Ground water table
Grazers Absorption of solar radiation
Aquifers Evapotranspiration variability
Land conversion Rainfall Cropland−Grassland area
Vapor Droughts
Native vegetation
Ground Waterstress frequencyGrazers
ENSO−like events
SSTMonsoon
Land−Ocean water table
pressure gradient circulation
Wind demand
WaterTemperature
Shadow_rooting
Dust LiftingRoughnessTree maturity
Soil quality
consumptioncondensation level
PalatabilityMoisture
0
0.00
RanchingFloods
Grazing Space
Soil impermeabilityBiomass population
Human
Latent heat Logginglogging Atmospheric CO2
Fertilizers Illegal development
Immigration
Sea tides releaseindustry
Infrastructure
use
0 2 4 6 8 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08
Indegree Eigenvector
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
18. RS1
2. What are the impacts of regime
shifts on global change drivers? D1 D2 D3
How many drivers are actually reinforced
How many regime shifts reinforce this driver?
by regime shifts dynamics?
Fire frequency Desertification
Fishing Soil Salinization
Global warming Marine Foodwebs
Turbidity
Forest − Savanna
Atmospheric CO2
Monsoon
Disease outbreaks
Bivalves Collapse
Erosion
Hypoxia
Irrigation
Nutrients input Greenland Ice−sheet Collapse
Water demand Coral Bleaching
Agriculture Coral Transitions
Deforestation Bush Encroachment
Demand Lake Euthrophication
Droughts
Fisheries Collapse
ENSO−like events frequency
Tundra − Forest
Grazing
Thermohaline Circulation
Invasive species
Arctic Salt−Marshes
Land conversion
Stratification Arctic Ice−sheet Collapse
Upwellings Kelps Transitions
Water infrastructure Steppe − Tundra
0 1 2 3 4 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
19. Monsoon
Soil salinization
Desertification
Forest to savanna
Steppe to Tundra
Encroachment
Arctic salt marsh
Tundra to Forest
Foodwebs
Hypoxia
Coral bleaching Bivalves collapse
Fisheries collapse
Eutrophication
Arctic Icesheet collapse
Coral transitions
Kelp transitions Greenland icesheet collapse
Thermohaline
3. What are the possible cascading effects of
regime shifts and its drivers? Reported by RSDB
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
20. 3. What are the possible cascading effects of
regime shifts and its drivers? RS1 D1 ... RS2
Up to 68 new inconvenient
feedbacks when coupling Bivalves.collapse
regime shifts pairs (e.g. Marine
Kelps
foodwebs collapse & Kelps Coral.Bleaching
transitions)
Most feedbacks are dominated Hypoxia
Coral.Transitions
by changes on biodiversity
dynamics.
Paths with shared drivers but Marine.foodwebs Lake.Eutrophication
non-forming feedback are not Fisheries.collapse
included.
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
21. 3. What are the possible cascading effects of
regime shifts and its drivers? RS1 D1 ... RS2
Up to 159 new feedbacks, e.g. Desertification
when coupling desertification
and bush encroachment.
Bush.Encroachment
Monsoon
Most feedbacks include climate
- vegetation interactions.
Scaling up and down dynamics
characterize the couplings.
Soil.Salinization
Forest...Savanna
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
22. Summary
1. What are the major Terrestrial:
global change drivers Marine: - Fire frequency
of regime shifts? - Nutrient inputs - Deforestation
- Fishing - Agriculture
2. What are the impacts Drivers more reinforced:
of regime shifts on - Fire frequency - Turbidity
global change drivers? - Fishing
- Global warming
3. What are the possible
Inconvenient feedbacks Inconvenient feedbacks
cascading effects of
dominated by change in dominated by scaling
regime shifts and its
4.drivers? biodiversity up/down dynamics
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
23. Interaction of regime
shifts drivers?
Regime shifts are tightly connected. The
management of immediate causes or well
studied variables might not be enough to
avoid such catastrophes.
Agricultural processes and global warming
are the main causes of regime shifts.
Network analysis might be a useful
approach to address causality relationships
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
24. Thanks!
Drs. Oonsie Biggs & Garry
Peterson for their supervision
RSDB folks for inspiring
discussion and writing
examples
SRC for an inspiring research
space and funding!
Questions??
e-mail: juan.rocha@stockholmresilience.su.se
Twitter: @juanrocha
Blog: http://criticaltransitions.wordpress.com/
What is a regime shift?
Science pub May 2009 - SRC
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
25. Q4. What are the possible cascading
effects of regime shifts and its drivers?
6.5 · 106 possible paths
Longest path 6 degrees
Average distance 2.37
Sample: 400 shortest
pathways
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
26. Q4. What are the possible cascading
effects of regime shifts and its drivers?
Domino effect
6.5 · 106 possible paths
Coral transitions Longest path 6 degrees
Coral bleaching Average distance 2.37
Tundra to forest Sample: 400 shortest
pathways
Kelp transitions
Hypoxia
Steppe to tundra
Fisheries collapse
Bivalves collapse
Lake eutrophication
Bush encroachment
Soil salinization
0 20 40 60 80
Strong Weak Fake
- Agriculture related drivers - Demographic & economic - Spatial mismatch of drivers
- Physical processes: climate drivers and ecosystem processes
change - Spatial adjacency is required (fragmentation)
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
27. Q4. What are the possible cascading effects of regime
shifts and its drivers?
Exacerbation of feedback
loops
Neighborhood effect
Diffuse connections
Cascading-down interactions
Cascading-up interactions
Tuesday, March 15, 2011