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What an ex –ICRAF DG does—
Rural Development or Research?


                  Pedro A. Sanchez
      The Earth Institute at Columbia University
                  24 February 2012
Options
   Retire and go fishing
   Shift from CG-type research to
    development
   Shift to more strategic tropical soils
    research
SS Africa           1    16

Latin America       3    48

South & East Asia   3    48

China               5    80
N. America,         10   160
21st Century African Green Revolution
Components    Nutrition             Environment
                          Markets
Agriculture




                                      Policies
              Politics


 Soils
 Water
 Seeds
AfGR 1.0 Real Impact since 2005

 15-20 million rural Africans are out of hunger
  who weren't in 2005 (yields from 1 to 2-3
  tons/ha)
 But, it’s <10% of currently rural hungry, 240 m
  in Africa
 Tipping point (25%?) not reached
 Input subsidies work and are the main tool, in
  conjunction with bank credit systems.
 Agrodealers , crop diversification, crop
  insurance
 Cellphone revolution
 Africa is really taking off
Malawi—The First African Green Revolution




     Smart subsidies
Harvest       Million      Food           Yield       Officially
      Year          tons      requireme      (tons/ha)
                                  nt
      2005           1.3         - 43%           0.8        drought
      2006           2.4         + 18%           1.5         good
      2007           3.3         + 57%           2.7         good
      2008           2.8         +32%            1.6         good
      2009           3.6         +58%            2.2         good
      2010           2.9         +33%            1.9        drought
      2011           3.3         +56%            2.2        drought
 Malawi: Low Prices
                                           2007:
Denning et al, 2009 Plos Biology,          Subsidy cost: $70 million
Ministry of Agriculture data for 2008-2011 Benefit: $688 million
What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?
Community leads / Science-based
5 tons/ha, Sauri, Kenya 2005
Pampaida, Nigeria
Harvest         Maize      Upland     Soybeans     Cowpea
   Year         (tons/ha)      rice                 (tons/ha)
                            (tons/ha)   (tons/ha)

    2005*           0.8        1.0         0.6         0.5
    2006            3.5         -           -           -
    2007            3.7        2.0         1.6         1.0
    2008            3.7        2.1         1.6         1.0
    2009            4.1        2.0         1.6         1.1
    2010            4.3        2.4         1.6         1.1

Pampaida, Kaduna State, Nigeria
Source: MVP Office, Zaria
The real yield gap
                 Sauri
10
 8
 6
 4
 2
 0




     2005   2006         2007   2008
             Cropping season
Working Schools: Pampaida
2006              2007
Road
2006          2007
Businesswoman-Sauri
From Agrovets to Agrodealers
What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?
Stunting of Children under 2 Years
Stunting                      Baselin      Year 3
Prevalence:                   e            n=720
                              n=376
Pampaida, Nigeria             78%          42%
Tiby, Mali                    63%          38%
Koraro, Ethiopia              62%          36%
Sauri, Kenya                  62%          38%
Mwandama, Malawi              55%          37%
Ruhiira, Uganda               49%          38%
Mbola, Tanzania               42%          15%
Potou, Senegal                30%          31%
Bonsaaso, Ghana               25%          20%
Overall                       52%          32%

 R. Remans et al. American Journal of Clinical Nutrition 2011)
African Green Revolution 2.0
 Scaling–up. African governments to lead
 Bring in organic inputs
 Banks to lend to the rural poor that lack
  collateral
 Work closely together with the private sector
 Close the real yield gap; increase efficiency
 21st Century extension
 Reduce pre and post harvest losses
What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?
What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?
What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?
Increase efficiency

   SSA going from 1 to 3 tons/ha in 10 years
   Increase penetration of high yielding seeds to 70%.
    Support seed companies
   Incorporate organic inputs (esp. agroforestry) in
    fertilizer-based smallholder farming systems
   Increase nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) from 10-15
    kg maize/kg fertilizer N to 30
   Increase rainfed water use efficiency (WUE) from 2
    to 10kg/mm ET
   Increase irrigation use efficiency from 48 to 75+%
    of water applied to penetrate the soil
   Targeting recommendations
Financing N-fixing Inputs. How?

        Credits
        Subsidies
        Rewards
Increased yields = Increased water use efficiency

1 ton/ha                  3 tons/ha




                 87% E
Extension
Learn from the top farmers
Targeting Recommendations: Digital Soil
        Map 100 by 100 m
       0 - 5 cm
       5 – 15 cm
       15 – 30 cm

       30 – 60 cm


       60-100 cm

       100-200 cm
       Effective depth




      Sanchez et al Science, 385: 680-681, 2009
Sentinel Site a spatially stratified,
    hierarchical, randomized
      sampling framework




                                                             Sentinel Site

                                                             16 Clusters

                                                               10 Plots

                                                             4 Sub-plots



           Randomization to minimize local biases that might arise from convenience sampling
Legacy Data: Soil Management Experiments
                              C Sequestration
      Agroforestry




      Phosphorus
                                  Methane
What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?
Lab in a box                     SMS


National Digital Soils Central   Mobile lab
Training a new generation of
   African soil scientists
Combine Appropriate Interventions, but
find out where specific interventions don’t
       work, or take too much time
 By all means combine mineral fertilizers
  with organic inputs
 Conservation agriculture (herbicides +
  power)
 Evergreen agriculture– apply genomic
  science?
 Biochar ?
 What is your yield target?
 What are your environmental targets?
The bottom line

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What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?

  • 1. What an ex –ICRAF DG does— Rural Development or Research? Pedro A. Sanchez The Earth Institute at Columbia University 24 February 2012
  • 2. Options  Retire and go fishing  Shift from CG-type research to development  Shift to more strategic tropical soils research
  • 3. SS Africa 1 16 Latin America 3 48 South & East Asia 3 48 China 5 80 N. America, 10 160
  • 4. 21st Century African Green Revolution
  • 5. Components Nutrition Environment Markets Agriculture Policies Politics Soils Water Seeds
  • 6. AfGR 1.0 Real Impact since 2005  15-20 million rural Africans are out of hunger who weren't in 2005 (yields from 1 to 2-3 tons/ha)  But, it’s <10% of currently rural hungry, 240 m in Africa  Tipping point (25%?) not reached  Input subsidies work and are the main tool, in conjunction with bank credit systems.  Agrodealers , crop diversification, crop insurance  Cellphone revolution  Africa is really taking off
  • 7. Malawi—The First African Green Revolution Smart subsidies
  • 8. Harvest Million Food Yield Officially Year tons requireme (tons/ha) nt 2005 1.3 - 43% 0.8 drought 2006 2.4 + 18% 1.5 good 2007 3.3 + 57% 2.7 good 2008 2.8 +32% 1.6 good 2009 3.6 +58% 2.2 good 2010 2.9 +33% 1.9 drought 2011 3.3 +56% 2.2 drought Malawi: Low Prices 2007: Denning et al, 2009 Plos Biology, Subsidy cost: $70 million Ministry of Agriculture data for 2008-2011 Benefit: $688 million
  • 10. Community leads / Science-based
  • 11. 5 tons/ha, Sauri, Kenya 2005
  • 13. Harvest Maize Upland Soybeans Cowpea Year (tons/ha) rice (tons/ha) (tons/ha) (tons/ha) 2005* 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.5 2006 3.5 - - - 2007 3.7 2.0 1.6 1.0 2008 3.7 2.1 1.6 1.0 2009 4.1 2.0 1.6 1.1 2010 4.3 2.4 1.6 1.1 Pampaida, Kaduna State, Nigeria Source: MVP Office, Zaria
  • 14. The real yield gap Sauri 10 8 6 4 2 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 Cropping season
  • 16. Road 2006 2007
  • 18. From Agrovets to Agrodealers
  • 20. Stunting of Children under 2 Years Stunting Baselin Year 3 Prevalence: e n=720 n=376 Pampaida, Nigeria 78% 42% Tiby, Mali 63% 38% Koraro, Ethiopia 62% 36% Sauri, Kenya 62% 38% Mwandama, Malawi 55% 37% Ruhiira, Uganda 49% 38% Mbola, Tanzania 42% 15% Potou, Senegal 30% 31% Bonsaaso, Ghana 25% 20% Overall 52% 32% R. Remans et al. American Journal of Clinical Nutrition 2011)
  • 21. African Green Revolution 2.0  Scaling–up. African governments to lead  Bring in organic inputs  Banks to lend to the rural poor that lack collateral  Work closely together with the private sector  Close the real yield gap; increase efficiency  21st Century extension  Reduce pre and post harvest losses
  • 25. Increase efficiency  SSA going from 1 to 3 tons/ha in 10 years  Increase penetration of high yielding seeds to 70%. Support seed companies  Incorporate organic inputs (esp. agroforestry) in fertilizer-based smallholder farming systems  Increase nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) from 10-15 kg maize/kg fertilizer N to 30  Increase rainfed water use efficiency (WUE) from 2 to 10kg/mm ET  Increase irrigation use efficiency from 48 to 75+% of water applied to penetrate the soil  Targeting recommendations
  • 26. Financing N-fixing Inputs. How? Credits Subsidies Rewards
  • 27. Increased yields = Increased water use efficiency 1 ton/ha 3 tons/ha 87% E
  • 29. Learn from the top farmers
  • 30. Targeting Recommendations: Digital Soil Map 100 by 100 m 0 - 5 cm 5 – 15 cm 15 – 30 cm 30 – 60 cm 60-100 cm 100-200 cm Effective depth Sanchez et al Science, 385: 680-681, 2009
  • 31. Sentinel Site a spatially stratified, hierarchical, randomized sampling framework Sentinel Site 16 Clusters 10 Plots 4 Sub-plots Randomization to minimize local biases that might arise from convenience sampling
  • 32. Legacy Data: Soil Management Experiments C Sequestration Agroforestry Phosphorus Methane
  • 34. Lab in a box SMS National Digital Soils Central Mobile lab
  • 35. Training a new generation of African soil scientists
  • 36. Combine Appropriate Interventions, but find out where specific interventions don’t work, or take too much time  By all means combine mineral fertilizers with organic inputs  Conservation agriculture (herbicides + power)  Evergreen agriculture– apply genomic science?  Biochar ?  What is your yield target?  What are your environmental targets?