6. AfGR 1.0 Real Impact since 2005
15-20 million rural Africans are out of hunger
who weren't in 2005 (yields from 1 to 2-3
tons/ha)
But, it’s <10% of currently rural hungry, 240 m
in Africa
Tipping point (25%?) not reached
Input subsidies work and are the main tool, in
conjunction with bank credit systems.
Agrodealers , crop diversification, crop
insurance
Cellphone revolution
Africa is really taking off
20. Stunting of Children under 2 Years
Stunting Baselin Year 3
Prevalence: e n=720
n=376
Pampaida, Nigeria 78% 42%
Tiby, Mali 63% 38%
Koraro, Ethiopia 62% 36%
Sauri, Kenya 62% 38%
Mwandama, Malawi 55% 37%
Ruhiira, Uganda 49% 38%
Mbola, Tanzania 42% 15%
Potou, Senegal 30% 31%
Bonsaaso, Ghana 25% 20%
Overall 52% 32%
R. Remans et al. American Journal of Clinical Nutrition 2011)
21. African Green Revolution 2.0
Scaling–up. African governments to lead
Bring in organic inputs
Banks to lend to the rural poor that lack
collateral
Work closely together with the private sector
Close the real yield gap; increase efficiency
21st Century extension
Reduce pre and post harvest losses
25. Increase efficiency
SSA going from 1 to 3 tons/ha in 10 years
Increase penetration of high yielding seeds to 70%.
Support seed companies
Incorporate organic inputs (esp. agroforestry) in
fertilizer-based smallholder farming systems
Increase nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) from 10-15
kg maize/kg fertilizer N to 30
Increase rainfed water use efficiency (WUE) from 2
to 10kg/mm ET
Increase irrigation use efficiency from 48 to 75+%
of water applied to penetrate the soil
Targeting recommendations
30. Targeting Recommendations: Digital Soil
Map 100 by 100 m
0 - 5 cm
5 – 15 cm
15 – 30 cm
30 – 60 cm
60-100 cm
100-200 cm
Effective depth
Sanchez et al Science, 385: 680-681, 2009
31. Sentinel Site a spatially stratified,
hierarchical, randomized
sampling framework
Sentinel Site
16 Clusters
10 Plots
4 Sub-plots
Randomization to minimize local biases that might arise from convenience sampling
36. Combine Appropriate Interventions, but
find out where specific interventions don’t
work, or take too much time
By all means combine mineral fertilizers
with organic inputs
Conservation agriculture (herbicides +
power)
Evergreen agriculture– apply genomic
science?
Biochar ?
What is your yield target?
What are your environmental targets?