1. Climate analogues for climate change adaptation planning Eike Luedeling GRP5

2. Climate change NASA-GISS, 2009. www.giss.nasa.gov

3. Climate change Annual rainfall change (mm) CCCMA model A2a scenario 2080s

4. Climate change impacts

5. Climate change impacts Projected yield changes by 2050 5th percentile Mean 95th percentile Maize Impact (percent) Sorghum Millet Schlenker and Lobell, 2010. Environmental Research Letters 5, 014010 (8 pp)

6. Adaptation / Mitigation Open questions How can we adapt? How can we mitigate? How can we be sure that adaptation is appropriate? How can we be sure that mitigation is sustainable? How to take adaptation and mitigation measures that are quantitatively appropriate for expected impacts of climate change?

7. Modeling climate change impacts Ecological or agricultural models + Climate projections = Impact projection Annual rainfall (CCCMA model; A2a scenario; 2080s)

8. Climate change impacts Projected yield changes by 2030 EU wheat Indonesia rice US wheat 20 India rice US maize 0 % Yield Change Canada wheat Brazil soy China wheat -20 China rice Malawimaize -40 High productivity South Africa maize Central outcome Low productivity Hertelet al., 2010. Global Environmental Change – Human and Policy Dimensions 20, 577-585

9. Modeling climate change impacts Winter chill for temperate fruit trees Luedeling et al., PLoS ONE, in press.

10. Modeling climate change impacts Winter chill for temperate fruit trees Colorful maps… what do they mean to decision makers? Sometimes a lot, normally not much! Luedeling et al., PLoS ONE, in press.

11. Limitations to modeling Tree life cycle Weather extremes Pest pressure Summer heat Yield Many systems are too complicated to model Pruning Diseases Winter chill

12. Limitations to modeling Bad models… Many models are by definition unsuitable for climate change analysis How quantitatively reliable are model projections? Chilling Hours Utah Model Pos. Utah Dynamic Chilling Hours Utah Model Pos. Utah Dynamic Luedeling et al., 2009. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 133, 23-31.

13. Climate analogue analysis – an alternative approach? Similar? Mean monthly temp in Africa Somewhat similar? Similar? Present Future CCCMA A2a 2080

14. Climate analogue analysis – an alternative approach? Similar? Mean monthly temp in Africa Most projected climates for a given location exist elsewhere at present! Somewhat similar? Similar? Where are they? Can we learn lessons from climate analogues? Present Future CCCMA A2a 2080

15. Climate analogue analysis – an alternative approach? Possible lessons What crops are grown? How have farmers adapted to local climate? What social safeguards are in place? What political measures are taken? What is the carrying capacity?

16. How to find analogues Climatic distance Monthly values

17. How to find analogues Climatic distance

18. How to find analogues Climatic distance Monthly values Normalization Weights (depending on objective)

19. How to find analogues Climatic distance X can be Monthly mean temperatures and precipitation More complicated climate variables (mean length of dry spells, etc.) Agroclimatic indicators (e.g. growing degree days) …

20. The analogue tool (prototype) Analogue tool Programmed in R

21. Data entry… Excel tables and climate grids

22. The tool Gridded climate data for many scenarios Polygon vector Extract regional dataset, change resolution, make scenario list Site position (or name) For each scenario Extract projection data from regional (or global) dataset Summarize scenario outputs Evaluate analogue locations Calculate climate distance to each point in baseline Produce outputs for scenario

23. Outputs as .html page

24. Analogue list

25. Correspondence plot

26. Correspondence plot Mean daily precipitation Mean daily maximum temperature Mean daily minimum temperature

27. Climatic distance map

28. Climatic distance map

29. Analogue map

30. Analogue map

31. What else happens there? – Google Earth

32. What else happens there? – Google Earth images A B

33. Analogue pathways

34. What else happens there? Raster evaluation Aridity index (Precipitation / PET) Distributions over 50 closest analogues per scenario Any gridded dataset can be sampled

35. What else happens there? Raster evaluation Potential yield of rainfed maize (low intensity) Distributions over 50 closest analogues per scenario Measure of vulnerability to climate change? Data from IIASA, 2009

36. Agroforestry and climate change Agroforestry may reduce farmers’ vulnerability to climate change But tree-based systems may also be vulnerable to climate change, because trees must be supported… every year... for decades… Climate analogues can help find out if trees are likely to survive

37. Suitability of Sahelian locations for parklands Approach Known parkland locations Climatic data layers Ecological niche modeling – Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) Requires occurrence input (species, ecosystems) Characterizes environment based on GIS layers (climate) Calculates suitability score for all locations within study extent Phillips et al. 2006. Ecological Modelling 190, 231–259

38. Suitability of Sahelian locations for parklands Approach Known parkland locations Climatic data layers MaxEnt suitability

39. Suitability of Sahelian locations for parklands Approach Known parkland locations Climatic data layers Input for Climate Analogue Analysis MaxEnt suitability

40. Suitability of Sahelian locations for parklands Climate Analogue Analysis Old Peanut Basin Zinder Ségou

41. Suitability of Sahelian locations for parklands Climate Analogue Analysis Old Peanut Basin

42. Suitability of Sahelian locations for parklands Climate Analogue Analysis Old Peanut Basin

43. Suitability of Sahelian locations for parklands Climate Analogue Analysis Old Peanut Basin MaxEnt suitability score for parkland

44. Suitability of Sahelian locations for parklands Climate Analogue Analysis Ségou

45. Suitability of Sahelian locations for parklands Climate Analogue Analysis Ségou

46. Suitability of Sahelian locations for parklands Climate Analogue Analysis Ségou Ségou MaxEnt suitability score for parkland

47. Suitability of Sahelian locations for parklands Climate Analogue Analysis Zinder

48. Suitability of Sahelian locations for parklands Climate Analogue Analysis Zinder

49. Suitability of Sahelian locations for parklands Climate Analogue Analysis Zinder MaxEnt suitability score for parkland

50. Next steps Add non-climatic variables to analogue finding procedure Test the usefulness of analogues in field surveys Make the tool into a useable application (web-based)

51. Thanks for your attention! e.luedeling@cgiar.org

52. Asante sana! Asante sana! Asante sana! Asante sana! Asante sana! Asante sana! Asante sana! Asante sana! Asante sana!

53. Climate change impacts Novel crop climates in Africa’s maize growing region 2025 2050 2075 Overlap between historic and simulated seasonal temperatures 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Burke et al., 2009. Global Environmental Change 19, 317-325